EUR is in a consolidation mode again before the next slide down. Possible support that will stop the downside is 1.2600 and the final one is around 1.2300 but i doubt we shall reach there soon. There was a large amount of unexpected bad EUR news and it seems the things over the Atlantic are getting a lot better. It is expected the FED to make another stimulus cut from 25 bln to 15 bln. This will push the EUR even lower till the end of this week. Today is expected the Gernamy's ZEW to be a…Continue
EUR continues the free fall and nothing seems to stop it. Target is set to 1.2805 and even below to 1.2765. Correction higher is needed, but still noone takes any profit, this means they expect more drop.Correction will start once we have over 60 pips upside H4 candle. Indicators on all time frames except M5 and M15 are extremely bearish. Maybe today we shall see some profit taking.
GOLD again is hit by the strong dollar and reached the support area 1254. If we don't see any EUR…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on September 9, 2014 at 6:28am — No Comments
Deeper and deeper EUR goes with another gap lower opening week. Finally the big players sold the EUR they have since close to 1.4000 levels. Where EUR is going to stop - it is not clear yet, but somewhere around 1.3066 we have a support area. We are currently some 200 pips below the weekly Senkou Span B price of the positive Ichimoku,however we have broken it lower too early and we have to make some significant correction higher before this break to be confirmed. The dollar is extremely…Continue
EUR dropped to 1.3185 this morning and opened the week with a huge downside gap. Today the pair may consolidate around 1.3200, and tomorrow to start a recovery. This week is the end of the month trade, so i expect some profit taking from Short after Wednesday. Weekly, Daily and H4 indicators are bearish but are already turning flat to bullish, so i think we are going to have a recovery soon, although opening with such a gap lower is not a good sign.
GOLD was not able to close the week…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 25, 2014 at 5:39am — No Comments
EUR has lost almost 200 pips since Monday and the pair despreately needs a correction but still there are no any signs of a possible correction. EUR is in a free fall state, after bad data from the EU and Germany, and better news from the US. Dollar is stronger than ever but i wonder if this is a temporary strength or the start of continuous EUR weakness. The pair needs a correction at least to 1.3330-50, and maybe more next week. But first we need to deal with the 1.3290-1.3310 resistance…Continue
After several failed attempts to break 1.3400, te EUR slided down below the 1.3330 support reaching 1.3312 by the moment of writing. The area between 1.3295-1.3310 seems well protected and it will be difficult to break before tomorrow's FED decision. I think that the market is currently consuming tomorrow's news. So it is quite possible to witness a risk aversion tomorrow, reaching 1.3470-1.3500.
GOLD is trying to stay above 1292 support but breaking below will increase the downside .…Continue
EUR did not succeed to close daily trade above 1.3380 the whole week. It moved in a small range between 1.3340 and 1.3415.Breaking of either will boost the further move in the same direction. However for now the pair seems locked inside.
GOLD has made a quick test of 1292 support but returnes fast above the previous 1305 support.Any drop below 1300 again may cause further drop to 1276 and 1254 for example.
NZD preserves the chances of upside recovery as long as the price is…Continue
EUR recovery has reached 1.3430 but the bullish power was not enough for something more, so the pair made a pullback to 1.3400, just above the support area 1.3380-90. Breaking below will test 1.3320-30 once again. We have a great chance for this because tomorrow's ZEW for Geermany is expected to be far worse from the previous value, and economic growth data for the eurozone on Thursday is also expected to be worse than previous. So i expect more slide till the end of this week.
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 11, 2014 at 5:00am — No Comments
EUR lost 1.3400 again ahead of ECB meeting tomorrow. As i have said in my previous forecast we have two support areas below 1.3330 and 1.3300. Currently EUR is far below the negative Ichimoku and it is expected the pair to make a big upside correction till the end of this week. The recovery move may be a part of tomorrow's high volatility too. Daily indicators are negative while smaller ones are mixed to positive. To the upside recovery is limited by 1.3610-20 resistance and i do not expect…Continue
EUR has made a small upside correction following 1.3370 drop from last week. The pair on Daily, H4 and H1 is bullish, but on other time frames is bearish. So i think that the current recovery is just a small correction and still we have no solid ground below. Such solid support is 1.3300, for nor this seems away below, but we have the ECB meeting this week and soon EUR may become under selling pressure. We have also the PMI, EU retail sales and Germany's factory orders this week too, so it…Continue
Dollar gained much strength these days as FED continues to cut the stimulus program. USD has made significant advance against everything, but it seems that after yesterday's decision it is time for profit taking, so we have some pullback eveywhere. I expect the EUR to try to recover back to 1.3450-65 today or tomorrow. Another dollar push below 1.3375 may take the pair down to 1.3330. There we have a strong support area which is not going to be brokens soon, so you may enter LONG close to…Continue
EUR dropped below 1.3450 support and now consolidates inside the main support area between 1.3420 and 1.3450. It is expected the pair to test 1.3400. EUR is bearish on all time frames except Weekly and Monthly. The resistance area is 1.3445-1.3455 and if broken the target will be 1.3475-85. To the downside breaking of 1.3400 may lead to another drop to 1.3300.
GOLD bounced from the Senkous Span B price last week and currently continues recovery above 1294. At the moment of writing the…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on July 28, 2014 at 4:51am — No Comments
EUR dropped below 1.3500 yesterday and is now approaching a strong support area which is going to stop the downside move and to start a recovery to the upside.This area is between 1.3420 and 1.3450. However if 1.3400 is broken this will lead to another 100 pips drop, but i think this won't happen this month. Since today's opening the EUR shows signs of recovery. The target is 1.3500 and above but the first attempt may not succeed.
GOLD is pretty calm in this situation, hovering above…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on July 23, 2014 at 6:23am — No Comments
EUR still holds 1.3520 by the end of the week, but let's first take a look on my previous forecast. on Wednesday i have forecasted that the EUR will continue sliding down to the support area 1.3490-1.3500. Well it still didn't reached that but went too close and the week is not over yet.We can see some stabilization just above that support area. So maybe some correction to the upside is possible today for example to 1.3540-50 and then another push to the downside again.
EUR dropped yesterday following a lot worse than expected ZEW data from Germany and Eurozone. Today i expect the downside to continue with target 1.3490-1.3500 support area. If that is broken too (maybe not today) downside will continue to the major support and reversal area 1.3420-30. Closing below that on Weekly will reverse the bullish trend. But I don't think this will happen soon. Currently EUR is bearish on all time frames, so more downside to come, do not enter LONG. A correction has…Continue
EUR is consolidating again ahead of Daily Senkou Span A price but as long as the price is below 1.3640 the pair is quite vulnerable to a sudden drop to 1.3540-50 for example. However this will be only a temporary weakness. And the consolidation outlook won't be changed even if the price drops to 1.3500. I think that the EUR will try to enter the negative Daily Ichimoku in the next 10 days and this means reaching 1.3700. Once above 1.3700, the final resistance will be 1.3750, and if we have a…Continue
EUR has stopped for a while the free fall, but it almost has no chances of any recovery to the upside as we have a strong resistance area built by several resistance lines. This resistance area is between 1.3630 and 1.3660. If we have any recovery into this area please keep in mind that the new downside wave may start at any moment. Upside reversal may happen only on a Daily close above 1.3680. If so, then the negative Daily Ichimoku will be inder attack and the target price will be…Continue
Today is the ECB meeting and the central bank will have to decide wheather to implement additional tools to stimulate inflation or not. As the price is above 1.3630 EUR/USD is bullish. First target is 1.3725 and the second one is 1.3780, finally 1.3840-50, where a correction to the downside must appear. Bearish scenario is if 1.3630 is broken, first target will be 1.3590-1.3600 support area, if broken next target will be 1.3510-1.3485. Remember that tomorrow US markets will be closed because…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on July 3, 2014 at 6:16am — No Comments
As expected EUR moved to the upside reaching 1.3700-1.3710 resistance area which bounced back the price on first attempt. This upside recovery may reach some more highs, but i think that by the end of the week we shall have a reversal and drop below 1.3650 again. Currently the price is supported by the 1.3680-1.3670 support area and we are bullish as long as the price is above that support area. My model shows that the upside may even reach 1.3810 on some fundamental news, before the…Continue
EUR is creating some artificial volatility while waiting for the end of the month. Soon the summer holidays will start and the volatility will be low.Everybody is now waiting for the end of the month and the next ECB meeting to see wheather mr.Draghi will implement further stimulus. We remain in an ascending channel despite yesterday's spike to the H4 Senkou Span B price of the positive H4 cloud. Of course it was too early to break it lower and the price quickly reversed, but i think big…Continue