"CAD/JPY’s ability to squeeze out a marginal new high—above last Friday’s inside range session—suggests that the nearterm trend here remains higher, if only modestly so. We still look on the cross as holding very near the middle of the recent, sideways trading range. The rise through the September/October channel ceiling earlier this month confers a slightly more positive look to the cross but we think the broader range will hold and the market will tend to look for opportunities to fade CAD…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 25, 2013 at 4:31pm — No Comments
Goldman Sachs - "We expect continued low and possibly falling FX volatility in the early part of 2014. Later in the year, evidence of improving growth could increase the market focus on the approaching end to ultra-low interest rates in some key economies. Volatility will likely pick up again and clearer directional FX opportunities materialise. The timing of these more directional moves is uncertain and it is quite possible that they will not materialise until 2015. Much will depend on the…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on November 25, 2013 at 11:28am — No Comments
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "We expect further modest yen weakness in 2014 as the BoJ will continue to ease monetary policy aggressively, and may even step up the pace of planned monthly asset purchases. The implementation of the sales tax hike in April will provide a key test for investor confidence in Abenomics. If the slowdown in economic growth proves greater than expected, making the achievement of their 2.0% inflation goal less likely, it will increase pressure upon the BoJ to respond…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on November 22, 2013 at 11:54am — No Comments
"CAD/JPY has pushed a little higher this morning and the short-term trend up is adopting a slightly stronger profile now as the market gets a little further away from the 95.25 pivotal support/resistance zone and generates a little more positive trend momentum.
Essentially, however, this is a market that remains in a broad, sideways trading range. We would expect the market to start to fade rallies towards the 97.00/50 area near-term."…
Added by Daologic on November 22, 2013 at 11:25am — No Comments
EURUSD BEARISH With bearish conditions intact, any recovery will be limited to resistance at 1.3579. Support is at 1.3400, a break below this would expose 1.3293.
USDJPY BULLISH Further support developed on Thursday and the pair is trading within striking distance of the resistance at 101.53, a break through which would open 103.74. Support is at 99.57.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL There is an important resistance at 1.6260, a break through which would be positive as it would indicate more upside…
"EURUSD BEARISH As long as resistance holds on closing basis at 1.3501, there's scope for resumption of weakness to test the support at 1.3293 and then 1.3166. Only a close above 1.3501 would prolong the recovery to 1.3564.
USDJPY BULLISH The pair extends its strength approaching resistance at 100.61, a break above which would open 101.53. Support is at 99.11 ahead of 97.62.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL The next main resistance is at 1.6260. Support is at 1.5989.
USDCHF BULLISH While support…
§ The Commitments of Traders Report showed another week of surging demand for USD exposure as of Tuesday, November 12th. Overall activity among…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 18, 2013 at 7:36am — No Comments
FX: Our US economics team estimates that the fiscal episode will trim growth slightly, but should not have a more direct persistent impact. However, the indirect impact has been USD-negative for FX markets
in helping to push off Fed tapering that much longer. We remain fairly optimistic about the medium-term prospects for the U.S. economy, which we believe will be positive for USD.
Rates: The market has already pushed out tapering expectations and priced in a dovish…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 11, 2013 at 11:37am — No Comments
EURJPY touched 1333.35 level where an extended wave (iii) could look for a temporary top on this pair and send prices down in wave (iv) pull-back that will be opportunity for traders to join the larger uptrend. For now, it’s too soon to look for any levels as we still don’t have enough data to confirm that wave (iv) has already began. But usually wave four will retrace back to the area of a previous fourth wave of a lesser degree which comes in around 132.42.
EURJPY 1h Elliott…Continue
Added by Gregor Horvat on October 11, 2013 at 9:10am — No Comments
Spot currency trading is conducted through Pips, the…Continue
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "USD/JPY - bearish bias – (96.00-99.00)
The dollar selling pressure is likely to grow due to the US debt ceiling and federal budget negotiations that have shut down the US government this week. The USD/JPY rate may reach the recent lowest point of 95.81 set on 8th August. However, given the successful bid for Tokyo 2020 summer Olympic announced in September, and given the expectations surrounding ‘Abenomics’, Japan's inflation expectations are growing. These…
Added by Francesc Riverola on October 3, 2013 at 4:12pm — No Comments
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "The USDJPY top-side is heavy due to the uncertainty over the ongoing US congressional budget negotiations. But despite the recent rebound, the yen has been week across the board since the beginning of September. For example EURJPY is still at highs not seen since late September of 2009. Next week the Tankan survey on 1st of October will confirm the gradual recovery of the Japanese economy and will coincide with PM Abe announcing that the sales tax will be hiked…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 27, 2013 at 9:12am — No Comments
After a choppy August, The seasonality effect is driving the JPY weakness against its major counterparts. The pair has broken corrective triangle pattern after month long Sell Climax. The failure to make new low in August price consolidation in a thin Volume Distribution phase, has cleared the Path of Least Resistance to the buyers. Positive stimulus outlook from the BOJ meeting minutes has been playing as a major catalyst in the culmination of further bullish momentum.…Continue
Added by fx-Syndicate on September 10, 2013 at 6:55pm — No Comments
I am looking at the FX wave structures and see very interesting pattern on USDJPY. As you know, USD sold off on Friday after worse than expected NFP which caused a sharp reversal in trend but only on the intra-day basis. We think that reversals are part of a corrective waves and that USD will continue higher against EUR, CHF, and JPY in this week. With that said, we still favor stronger USD based on larger trend, so current reversals are temporary.
Our special attention in this week…Continue
Added by Gregor Horvat on September 9, 2013 at 9:58am — No Comments
Rabobank - "IMM Net Positioning as at 27 August 2013:
- EUR net longs continued to rise, edging up to a high since May 2011.
- Yet again USD longs fell slightly but they still remain in positive territory. We expect our structurally bullish USD view to be reflected by market positioning going forward.
- JPY shorts increased by more than the prior week’s reduction. USD/JPY continues to flirt with the 100 handle but has not stood north of there since late July.
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 2, 2013 at 11:00am — No Comments
UBS - "The new month starts with a high degree of event risk. The US may launch strikes against Syria as early as this weekend. In the week ahead, the European Central Bank, the Banks of Japan, England and Canada, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Riksbank all hold policy meetings. The US August payrolls report is due at the end of the week, and emerging market currencies are likely to face further pressure if America's employment data suggest the Federal Reserve will agree this month to…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 2, 2013 at 9:59am — No Comments
TD Securities - "JPY: USD/JPY might have done enough to avert further weakness near-term at least. Spot is testing thin “cloud” chart resistance in the high 98s as the week closes out but might have struck an important, short-term low already via gains through 97.69, a minor, inverse Head & Shoulders neckline (red trend line). If this pattern gets any further traction—specifically if USD/JPY breaks trend resistance off the May peak at 99.35/40 (around where the market…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on August 26, 2013 at 9:23am — No Comments
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "EUR: The euro is continuing to outperform alongside the US dollar likely supported by euro-zone residents repatriating funds from overseas. Heightened QE tapering expectations are leading to a significant tightening in global external financing conditions boosting the appeal of the low yielding but more liquid euro and US dollar. The euro-zone’s widening current account surplus also adds to the euro’s relative appeal compared to the US dollar in the current…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on August 22, 2013 at 3:23pm — No Comments
JP Morgan - "While USD/JPY has kept the door open to resume its broader up-trend straight away with the defense of key-Fib.- support at 95.62 (minor 76.4 %) we still see greater down- risks for EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY. Particularly EUR/JPY looks vulnerable as it just broke below daily trend line support (now resistance at 129.73), which suggests that the downside is open for a test of 124.97/95 (pivots) and 123.98 (C = A) if not for an extension to 121.04 (int. 38.2 %). Only above 129.73 the…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on August 14, 2013 at 4:10pm — No Comments
Brown Brothers Harriman - "Euro: The euro managed to push through the Bernanke-induced high set on July 11 just above $1.3200 and raced to $1.33 before running out of steam. After posting a seemingly bullish outside up day on Thursday (July 25), the euro consolidated in less than half a cent range before the weekend.
The euro has approached a downtrend line drawn off the 2011 high near $1.4940, the Feb 2013 high just above $1.3700, and June high a little above $1.34. It…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 28, 2013 at 9:02pm — No Comments