EUR continues free fall as the negative news is coming out one by one. First the ECB starts QE program and now in Greece will rule the pro-socialist government. Days of the european union are already counted, the countdown has started. EUR price goes to the downside incerasing its speed with every hour it is like a snowball falling downs the mountain slope and finally will crash into the rocks at the bottom. This morning the pair has recorded a fresh low at 1.1097 then corrected some 100…Continue
EUR continues to loose price against the Dollar. The price dropped to 1.1460 and then we had some 100 pips pullback. Currently the pair attempts to recover further using the profit taking from SHORT ahead of ECB later this week. We shall have also Germany's ZEW economic sentiment and Eurozone PMI which are expected to be better than previous so this may help the EUR to climb up to 1.1760 and even to test 1.2040 again. All indicators are bearish below 1.1570. First downside target is 1.1510…Continue
Last week EUR recorded a new low at 1.1754 and that was the fourth week in a row with a negative close. Weekly and Daily indicators are bearish, but the H4 ones show some signs of correction. Today we do not have any important economic data and the market calmed down after the stormy beginning of the year. Now everybody is waiting for Greece's elections on 25th of January. until then EUR will remain under a continuous downside pressure and any recovery will be limited. Currently the Daily…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on January 12, 2015 at 6:26am — No Comments
EUR dropped heavily with today's open and started this week with a huge gap lower. Seems that EU economy is quite more worse than mr. Draghi and other financial ministers keep trying the whole 2014 to convince us. Now the politics take part in the game trying desperate to save the EU economy. mrs.Merkel says Greece may be kiked off the EU zone soon and this has turned the market into a strom field. It is good to know that such news throw the market into panic and economic data has no matter.…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on January 5, 2015 at 6:27am — No Comments
EUR starts the last week of the year with hopes for some recovery to the upside. H1, H4 and Daily indicators show a process of weak recovery has started with first target between 1.2250-1.2300. Any H4 drop below 1.2185 will restore the downside move. Weekly indicators are still negative with target 1.2060 still unreached, this may happen in the beginning of 2015 but first we need to break below 1.2160.
GOLD is still blocked inside the Daily Ichimoku, we need to break above the…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on December 29, 2014 at 6:07am — No Comments
Merry Christmas, dear…Continue
Another week another fresh EUR low. The EU currency hit the 1.2220 resistance which is the Monthly SMA200 too. There are only a few trading days of 2014 and just one support standing - this is the area 1.2060-1.2080. Currently the pair is stongly bearish on all time frames an this state will remain until the price is below 1.2270 which is the first Daily resistance, the second one is 1.2320 and finally 1.2360-1.2385. Today is expected some worse data from Germany, and for the rest of the…Continue
EUR is moving in a range since the end of last week between 1.2400 and 1.2485. Of course range is pretty wide and allows to use the strategy buy at the bottom and sell at the top as we have a strong resistance above 1.2500. I expect range trade to continue with bearish tone, i am not optimistic about the EUR recovery till the end of this month and year. Christmas is coming in 10 days and we may see a partly profit taking ahead of the holiday. Here are the resistance and support levels for…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on December 15, 2014 at 5:49am — No Comments
EUR started the week below 1.2300 level. This week's target will be 1.2220 and below. However i expect the current downside to stop somewhere above 1.2100 and from there to start a massive recovery to the upside. All the things on Monthly may turn heavy EUR negative if next year EUR price drops below 1.2000. This if happens may push the price down to 1.1000 and even below. But let's now forget this scenario because it is a really long term one. This year's target will be somewhere above…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on December 8, 2014 at 6:21am — No Comments
EUR is in a consolidation ahead of the ECB rate decision on Thursday. Until that i expect the consolidation to continue with a bearish tone. We have two major resistances which may reverse the bearish outlook. First one is at 1.2580 and the second one is at 1.2620. breaking of them both and closing the week above will reverse the bearish outlook. On the other side bears have the excellent opportunity of testing 1.2360, as the ECB is expected to leave the interest rate at the record low level…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on December 1, 2014 at 5:06pm — No Comments
EUR dropped heaviliy again last Friday following mr.Draghi's speech. It reached 1.2360 again and currently has formed a 'double bottom' formation. However this formation is still unconfirmed. I will consider it confirmed once the price breaks above 1.2465. On double bottom confirmation we shall have a signal for a powerful profit taking and upside recovery to 1.2620. Once above it the upside will continue to 1.2740. For now first strong resistance comes at 1.2470, followed by 1.2510. If the…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 24, 2014 at 6:21am — No Comments
Last Friday EUR made some recovery to 1.2550-60 resistance area. Today EUR reversed to the downside again and has cleared all the progress made on Friday. Currently EUR found support at 1.2450 which is also the H4 Senkou Span A price. For now we are still just above the support but i think there is a huge possibility for it to be broken soon. H4 indicators are bearish, and the Daily ones are going bearish too. First target is 1.2380 and then 1.2325. To the upside we need to break above…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 17, 2014 at 6:37pm — No Comments
EUR reached a fresh low last week at 1.2360 then some profit taking appeared on Friday and the pair returned back at the important 1.2450 support. Currently we are above it and the H1, H4 and Daily indicators show some recovery signs. However we have some strong resistances ahead, and this recovery may be just some profit taking and not a real recovery process. First resistance comes at 1.2520, the second one is at 1.2565 and finally 1.2650. Only above the last we shall have a real recovery…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 10, 2014 at 6:10am — No Comments
EUR under a heavy downside pressure again after last week's FED meeting and has broken the 1.2500 support, currently trading below it too. Weekly, Daily and H4 indicators are bearish so another push downside is ahead. Seems that the EUR will look for support around 1.2200-1.2140 and finally 1.2000. It may seem too catastrophic but prices below 1.2000 are also possible, but maybe next year. For now EUR is bearish below 1.2530 and first resistance is now 1.2500.
GOLD dropped sharply to…Continue
EUR is currently below the Daily resistance of 1.2720, we have two more resistance levels to break after that - they are 1.2735 and 1.2760. Above the last the upside will be fully restored and you may enter LONG. We have the FOMC meeting on Wednesday so i expect some EUR recovery ahead, but not above 1.2900 before the meeting. Weekly, Daily and H4 indicators are turning to the upside so this tells me that some recovery is possible. If we break 1.2900 resistance too then the recovery may…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on October 27, 2014 at 5:57am — No Comments
EUR slowly looses positions from last Wednesday's upside jump and is trading currently at the 1.2750 support. Next stronger support is at 1.2700, for which i ecpect to hold and the recovery to continue to 1.2900 and above. However if for some reason we have a Daily close below 1.2700, this will reopen the way back to 1.2540 and below. This week we do not have any so much important news, except PMI data on Thursday and US jobless claims later the same day.
GOLD is locked within the…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on October 20, 2014 at 5:15am — No Comments
EUR was unable to reach 1.2350 weekly target as the last downside push has been stopped by the 1.2500 level. A powerful recovery followed reaching 1.2800. Currently we are above the main daily support @ 1.2650 and seems the recovery is going to continue with first target 1.2730 and second one at 1.2800 finally 1.3000. However it is too early to say that any downside is over as the daily indicators are showing unstable recovery. Today is a non-working day for USA, Canada and Japan, markets…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on October 13, 2014 at 5:33am — No Comments
EUR closed another week at the lowest price with still absolutely no signs of recovery. Seems that the target is the Monthly SMA200 at 1.2220, but the pair may even try an attempt to go below. I doubt it will succeed. This week's target will be 1.2350. Daily resistance is 1.2690 and the pair has no chances of breaking it higher. EUR is now extremely bearish as all bulls are dead and the dollar makes more gains after a lot better than expected NFP data. There is no so important data releases…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on October 6, 2014 at 5:15am — No Comments
Start of the downtrend: 1.3655
Macro: The diverging stance between FED and ECB. FED has started to tighten the monetary conditions since the start of tapering process. ECB has eased the monetary conditions. This conditions will persist untill the inflation in the EZ will start to revive to ECB comfort levels (2-3%).
Correction: There have been no correction yet. I wait for a correction to sell EURUSD.
EUR has continued the free fall which started nearly 10 weeks ago. News from the EU and ermany are continuous worse and worse while over the Atlantic Mrs.Yellen continues to reduce the stimulus program. From the other side seems that 1000 pips were not enough for the big players to take their profit and they continued to sell EUR. Are they brave enough to bring the price to 1.2210? Technically this is not impossible. This price is the monthly SMA200 line and it is a good target. This monthly…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on September 29, 2014 at 5:12am — No Comments