TD Securities - "We have upgraded our outlook for the USD across a broad front. We are adjusting our views to reflect some market developments that have occurred a little more rapidly than we had expected (such as the push up in USD/JPY). But we are also recognising the emergence of some trends that we feel support our long-held view that the USD’s secular bear trend is very mature and is poised to show signs of a further recovery.
(...) We have upgraded out USD/JPY forecast to reflect…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 14, 2013 at 3:02pm — No Comments
Rabobank - "Early May, (...), has brought better US data and therefore a new least of life for the greenback. Better US data has increased the market’s sensitivity to speculation regarding when the Fed could start to reduce the amount of its monthly $85 bln asset purchases. (...) Despite this better tone, we are sceptical on the ability of the USD to push aggressively higher from current levels. The fiscal consolidation announced in the US this year will continue to have an impact for months…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 13, 2013 at 2:16pm — No Comments
UBS - "The overnight break above the psychological 100 level is likely to pave the way for further upside too. The break was accompanied by broad-based dollar strength which chimes with our more general stronger dollar view for 2013.
With events unfolding in favour of further yen weakness, we take this opportunity to raise our 1m and 3m USDJPY forecasts to 102 and 105 respectively (previously both stood at 95.00). Our end-2013 forecast remains at 110.
(...) The dollar has chalked up…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 10, 2013 at 7:08am — No Comments
USD/JPY is moving in descending channel. Currently testing lower trend line and support at 97.400 - 97.100 zone. Rejection at support zone will provide opporunity to go long as USD/JPY move to trest resistance at 98.125.
Outlook – USD/JPY - Short Term Long…Continue
Added by Sardar Uddin on May 1, 2013 at 8:08am — No Comments
TD Securities - "We highlighted signs of instability and weakness in the underlying bull trend in USD/JPY in the past couple of weeks (the big, bearish divergence on the daily chart between the spot market and the smoothed slow stochastic oscillator, for example). This week, price action is delivering some concrete signals of an important price reversal via a bearish “engulfing line” on the weekly chart. This is a classic—and usually reliable—candle reversal. The broader move up has been so…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 29, 2013 at 5:20pm — No Comments
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "The yen has strengthened in response to the unchanged monetary policy decision from the BOJ. The announcement, which came at 0535 BST, resulted in USD/JPY falling back below the 99.00 level.
(...) I think if there is anything to take from today’s BOJ policy meeting it is the fact that the BOJ believes it has made all the announcements necessary in order to achieve its more aggressive inflation target. That may illicit the market questioning what next for…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 26, 2013 at 7:49am — No Comments
Quick update, This pair was working well as per last few posts. A risk can be lower down to 102.60, if 102.60 not hold, we might see a new high above 102.90.
Written by: …Continue
Societé Generale - "Good morning. It's risk-on and raining in London. The Bundesbank doesn't like OMT (we knew that), Angela Merkel chose to point out that Germany needs higher rates (not so sure about that) and next week's ECB meeting and conference call will be fun. But that's all for next week. Today, the SG risk sentiment indicator is back in ‘risk-seeking' territory - an extremely rare event in 2013 despite the S&Ps gains this year.
(...) Crowded positions have been flushed:…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 26, 2013 at 7:36am — No Comments
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "The USD/JPY rate has moved close to the 100-level on a number of occasions in response to Kuroda's QQE announcement to expand the monetary base and hit a 2% inflation target. However, yen buying for repatriation of cash earnings from overseas subsidiaries, the recent weak economic indicators in the U.S., and yen buying to avoid option triggers before the BoJ board meeting have countered yen weakness recently. Next week market conditions may be more volatile due to…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 25, 2013 at 2:32pm — No Comments
A pair had a top on 105.4. From top, we are in larger wave 4. Last drop was impulse drop and can be counted a first wave in zigzag correction – A. There is very less chance of considering that wave as part of larger impulse move i.e. 1 (marked with red color), but having the probability, I keep that in my daily chart. On 240 min chart, price is well between in the channel, and depend on today close, we find reversal pattern on daily chart.…Continue
Added by FxMind on April 22, 2013 at 8:58am — No Comments
Wells Fargo - "With respect to the yen, the impressive monetary easing announced by the Bank of Japan this past week supports and perhaps enhances the prospects for a weaker ¥250 Japanese currency. The central bank’s announcement implies a pace of balance sheet expansion in excess of anything seen in Japan over the past two decades, and far in excess of the pace of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet expansion. In addition, from a historical perspective, the trade weighted value of the yen…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 15, 2013 at 10:26am — No Comments
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 10, 2013 at 9:17pm — No Comments
Danske Bank - "In our view it is just a matter of time before we pass the magic 100 level. With Bank of Japan's massive bond buying plan, JGB yields look set to remain low for long and the yen to continue to weaken. This has forced Japanese asset managers to seek abroad for higher yields and we currently see significant Japanese flows into Europe as Japanese investors buy 'high-yielding' European bonds. Thus, while European core markets have rallied, yield spreads between peripheral and…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 9, 2013 at 10:30am — No Comments
National Australia Bank - "Financial ‘shock and awe’ may not be too inappropriate a description of last week’s unveiling of ‘QQME’ by the Bank of Japan. Having comfortably leapfrogged market expectations for what the new BoJ regime under Kurodo was likely to deliver at its first outing, the explosive JPY reaction was justified and should have further to run. We expect 100 to be surpassed sooner rather than later and suggest that a level near 110 is justified on the back of the BoJ plan to…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 8, 2013 at 10:39am — No Comments
Rabobank - "According to the OECD the PPP estimate for USD/JPY stands around 103.9. Other measures, however, estimate fair value as low at USD/JPY 87. Currently the real effective exchange rate of Japan is trading well below the average of the past 20 years. This means the Japanese authorities will now find it difficult to argue that the yen is too expensive. Early this year there were signs of discomfort from China over the pace of the losses in the value of the yen. Even though the G7…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 7, 2013 at 9:36am — No Comments
HSBC - "The JPY is likely to remain on the defensive for now. In the run-up to the meeting, the market had become wary that the BoJ would under-deliver and USD-JPY had weakened from close to 97 in March to 93. The knee-jerk reaction following the BoJ announcement has reversed much of this move, and it is likely that USD-JPY will continue to trade above 95 in the coming weeks. After all, the proposed pace of QE by the BoJ is roughly USD70bn a month, not far shy of the Fed’s USD85bn QE3…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 5, 2013 at 8:48am — No Comments
As far as current price action, it’s on track as per my last post. Below 240min chart, showing cycle / wave A on larger degree completed, and can expect wave B here. This move also can be counted impulsive for final wave 5 on daily and weekly chart, and…Continue
TD Securities - "USD/JPY seasonal patterns tend to favour the JPY in the March/ April/May period (based on a simple analysis of the distribution of monthly returns over the past 20 years).
(...) However, though we continue to think that current USD/ JPY levels are over-extended and that a good deal of still pending BoJ easing is priced in to the market at current levels, USD/JPY losses may be mitigated in the early stages of the New fiscal year if Japanese investors adjust (reduce) USD…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 1, 2013 at 9:54am — No Comments
Rabobank - "There is huge anticipation that Kuroda will kick off his term as BoJ Governor with a significant step-up in policy stimulus at the April 3-4 meeting. Earlier in the week we were given a taste of what this could be; Kuroda spoke about buying longer dated JGBs (to include 5 yr bonds) and also there have been hints of increased purchases of riskier assets. Bearing in mind the huge amount of attention that has surrounding the appointment of Kuroda and his reassurances about the…Continue
JP Morgan - "JPY is the key focus following last week’s bearish action and breakout for USD/JPY. With the push through the important 94.77/95.00 resistance zone (includes the 2010 high), the focus is now on the 97.00/97.80 zone (includes the Aug ’09 high). In turn, corrective retracements are viewed as buying opportunities as pullbacks should find support at 94.75/94.10 and 93.50. Still, given the potential momentum divergences, the upside is likely to be more of a grind to new highs. Cross…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 11, 2013 at 3:41pm — No Comments