EUR dropped below 1.3500 yesterday and is now approaching a strong support area which is going to stop the downside move and to start a recovery to the upside.This area is between 1.3420 and 1.3450. However if 1.3400 is broken this will lead to another 100 pips drop, but i think this won't happen this month. Since today's opening the EUR shows signs of recovery. The target is 1.3500 and above but the first attempt may not succeed.
GOLD is pretty calm in this situation, hovering above…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on July 23, 2014 at 6:23am — No Comments
EUR still holds 1.3520 by the end of the week, but let's first take a look on my previous forecast. on Wednesday i have forecasted that the EUR will continue sliding down to the support area 1.3490-1.3500. Well it still didn't reached that but went too close and the week is not over yet.We can see some stabilization just above that support area. So maybe some correction to the upside is possible today for example to 1.3540-50 and then another push to the downside again.
EUR dropped yesterday following a lot worse than expected ZEW data from Germany and Eurozone. Today i expect the downside to continue with target 1.3490-1.3500 support area. If that is broken too (maybe not today) downside will continue to the major support and reversal area 1.3420-30. Closing below that on Weekly will reverse the bullish trend. But I don't think this will happen soon. Currently EUR is bearish on all time frames, so more downside to come, do not enter LONG. A correction has…Continue
EUR is consolidating again ahead of Daily Senkou Span A price but as long as the price is below 1.3640 the pair is quite vulnerable to a sudden drop to 1.3540-50 for example. However this will be only a temporary weakness. And the consolidation outlook won't be changed even if the price drops to 1.3500. I think that the EUR will try to enter the negative Daily Ichimoku in the next 10 days and this means reaching 1.3700. Once above 1.3700, the final resistance will be 1.3750, and if we have a…Continue
EUR has stopped for a while the free fall, but it almost has no chances of any recovery to the upside as we have a strong resistance area built by several resistance lines. This resistance area is between 1.3630 and 1.3660. If we have any recovery into this area please keep in mind that the new downside wave may start at any moment. Upside reversal may happen only on a Daily close above 1.3680. If so, then the negative Daily Ichimoku will be inder attack and the target price will be…Continue
Today is the ECB meeting and the central bank will have to decide wheather to implement additional tools to stimulate inflation or not. As the price is above 1.3630 EUR/USD is bullish. First target is 1.3725 and the second one is 1.3780, finally 1.3840-50, where a correction to the downside must appear. Bearish scenario is if 1.3630 is broken, first target will be 1.3590-1.3600 support area, if broken next target will be 1.3510-1.3485. Remember that tomorrow US markets will be closed because…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on July 3, 2014 at 6:16am — No Comments
As expected EUR moved to the upside reaching 1.3700-1.3710 resistance area which bounced back the price on first attempt. This upside recovery may reach some more highs, but i think that by the end of the week we shall have a reversal and drop below 1.3650 again. Currently the price is supported by the 1.3680-1.3670 support area and we are bullish as long as the price is above that support area. My model shows that the upside may even reach 1.3810 on some fundamental news, before the…Continue
EUR is creating some artificial volatility while waiting for the end of the month. Soon the summer holidays will start and the volatility will be low.Everybody is now waiting for the end of the month and the next ECB meeting to see wheather mr.Draghi will implement further stimulus. We remain in an ascending channel despite yesterday's spike to the H4 Senkou Span B price of the positive H4 cloud. Of course it was too early to break it lower and the price quickly reversed, but i think big…Continue
EUR is continuing consolidation below 1.3600, and yesterday's attempt to break that resistance has failed because of the worse than expected PMI data. Today the IFO data will be released and if it is also worse like yesterday's then the EUR may drop again to 1.3550 or 1.3510. Currently the price is above the H4 negative cloud and going deep below it is not likely. Recovery to the upside will continue once the price is above 1.3600, until that one or several downside tests may appear. Daily…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 24, 2014 at 4:59am — No Comments
EUR finished the week at 1.3600 support after a quick test of 1.3550-60. The price bounced back to the upside and the pair is now bullish on all time frames. This means the recovery will continue and with the help of good PMI and IFO on Monday and Tuesday for EU and Germany the pair may reach easily 1.3750-1.3820. Breaking of 1.3650 will be the signal for this. Downside may be restored only below 1.3540, but for now we are far from that and expected fundamental data is in favor of the EUR.…Continue
EUR has made a shy move to the upside following the FED's decision to keep the interest rate unchanged and to continue with reducing stimulus program. This decision was expected and the market was not surprised, so the dollar lost positions against almost everything. However we lack enough power to break through the important 1.3600 resistance. Once above the price will easily go to 1.3660, but for that we need at least one H4 candle closed well above 1.3600. For now the pair seems uncapable…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 19, 2014 at 5:04am — No Comments
EUR has made a test of 1.3510 yesterday before reversing to the upside and breaking of the 1.3550 took the price to 1.3580-85 as expected. However we are still below the important for further recovery 1.3600 resistance. Breaking of the 1.3600 may take the price to 1.3650-60 quickly, but there a storng resistance is placed and moving futher to the upside will be very hard. But first we need to break above 1.3600, until that we are bearish.
GOLD didn't reached my thirs target from last…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 17, 2014 at 4:59am — No Comments
EUR failed to reach 1.3600 and to close above so bears took the price back to 1.3520-30 area on last week's close. We are slowly approaching the positive Weekly cloud which is expected to bounce the price to the upside. There are signs of a support formed at 1.3500, but we need to break above 1.3600 resistance to confirm the recovery. There are also some signs of nearby recovey to the upside on Daily and smaller frames, but this is too unreliable as the price is now even below 1.3550.…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 16, 2014 at 4:31am — No Comments
EUR went back above 1.3550 after US data yesterday, but the outlook will remain negative as long as the price is below 1.3600. Possible recovery may extend to 1.3620 or 1.3655, but no more than the last for now. Daily indicators are turning bullish, H4 are already bullish. We are short term bullish while the price is above 1.3550 for a recovery to 1.3600.
GOLD has reached my first target 1268 and almost reached the second 1276 both forecasted yesterday. Now we have support at 1267 and…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 13, 2014 at 5:21am — No Comments
EUR is still above the 1.3530 support and every attempt to break above 1.3550 is not successful. So now we are watching the 1.3530-40 area, break below will increase the downside pressure and first support to come is 1.3500, then 1.3470 and finally 1.3430.Today we have plenty of economic data from EU and USA. EUR is now beraish on all time frames, so it is more likely the downside to continue today.
GOLD is above the support 1254 and the first resistance to battle with is 1268,…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 12, 2014 at 8:02am — No Comments
EUR has reversed losses after testing 1.3500 support and now it is back to the SMA200 resistance at 1.3650. We have also a diagonal resistance line somewhere around 1.3670 and we need to break above the 1.3670 to progress to 1.3740-50. Continuation to 1.3805 is less possible but not impossible. Downside will be restored once the pair breaks below 1.3590. Between 1.3620 and 1.3650 the pair is locked and sideways movements can be expected.
GOLD is blocked by the 1254-1258 resistance…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 9, 2014 at 5:02am — No Comments
EUR has tested 1.3500 after ECB rate cut yesterday, but then reversed quickly to the upside reaching 1.3670. Such reversals are always hard to explain and there are several reasons for that. But first of all i think that this is because the market is expecting FED to make additional stimulus to the economic growth like ECB has done, this has put the dollar under downside pressure against all currency pairs and commodities. This is the main reason for the risk aversion yesterday, and the…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 6, 2014 at 4:53am — No Comments
EUR continues to move below the daily SMA200 and is quite possible to go under a massive downside pressure after the mr.Draghi's speech today. Target zone is below 1.3400. Be careful as the big players will try to hit some SL to the upside maybe and then a risk aversion will happen to the downside again, so be extremely carful, or stay out of the market if you don't know what you are doing.
JPY recovered a bit after yesterday's dollar attack, upside will be restored only above 102.60,…Continue
EUR is locked within the range between the support 1.3585 and resistance 1.3650. We are bearish as long as the pair is below 1.3630,above 1.3650 further recovery is possible to 1.3750-60, but i think that will be used for opening Short positions at a better price. The market is waiting for the ECB to act, if we have another rate cut the downside move may reach 1.3350-1.3310. Add to SHORT below 1.3550.
GOLD is above 1240, but on Daily is bearish, H4 is also bearish and H1 or smaller…Continue
EUR is going to consolidate until Thursday when it is expected ECB to make either a rate cut or to implement some new measures to support economic growth and to increase low inflation. This will put the EUR under extremely high downside pressure against all currencies. It is quite possible the downside move to be consumed day or two before the ECB meeting, because there are always leaks of information. It is good to know that every upside will be used to open SHORT positions at a better…Continue