"The first farewell to guidance This week the Bank of England became the first central bank to say goodbye to forward guidance, but certainly not the last. In its quarterly Inflation Report, the Old Lady turned back to a multivariate approach in assessing future prospects for inflation and hence monetary policy, abandoning the focus on a single indicator of slack in the economy…Continue
Recent consolidation ended last week with a move that emphasised the importance of buying at a 50% pullback point. Increasing demand resulted in the most powerful weekly gains since Jun and with the highest levels since 2009. The speed of the upside means signals are overbought and prone to profit taking but with prices hugging the top of both weekly and daily Keltner channels, and the 13 day avg supportive there is potential for 1.6878 and 1.7043…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on February 17, 2014 at 8:23am — No Comments
"Trading Summary | Stay with stronger EUR/USD as the ECB dithers on easier policy and US data fizzles. With event risk from the BoE Inflation Report now passed, GBP strength can continue. We reaffirm our 1.69 end-Q1 target for GBP/USD, but see increased overshooting risks for the coming month. NOK price action remains constructive, with a move back in line with its traditional drivers ongoing. Further outperformance is likely on a…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 17, 2014 at 7:37am — No Comments
"Dollar Remains Out of Favor
The US dollar fell against all the major currencies over the past week. Helped by speculation that the Bank of England will likely hike rates before it currently envisions, sterling rose to its highest level since…
Added by Daologic on February 17, 2014 at 7:06am — No Comments
The GBPUSD maintained a strong bullish momentum last week , bottomed at the 1.6382 levels and topped at the 1.6754 levels . Now pressure will be on the key resistance 1.6754 .
The GBPUSD will have to hold above the 1.6754 levels on a weekly closing basis to push the market for further upside gains , If seen , It will target the psychological level 1.7000 , a halt is suggested but a breach will call for a run towards the 1.7300 levels.
Alternatively , a failure to hold above…Continue
"Sterling's gains, extending yesterday's rally, are more understandable. Simply put, the market is pricing in risk that the BOE hikes rates earlier than the BOE thinks, though the debt market is consolidating after big moves yesterday. There is a relatively wide premium over Germany for 10-year bonds. The BOE and CBI have revised higher growth forecasts. The 3-year…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 13, 2014 at 12:27pm — No Comments
Added by Daologic on February 13, 2014 at 12:08pm — No Comments
The GBPUSD maintained a bullish momentum yesterday , bottomed at the 1.6425 levels and topped at the 1.6600 levels. This development leaves the pair targeting the 1.6700 levels , a halt is suggested but a breach will turn focus on the 1.6800 levels , further out will call for a run towards the 1.6940 levels.
On the downside , support comes at the 1.6425 levels , losing this level on a daily closing basis will confirm short term topping and open 1.6260 levels , a cut will extend…Continue
"EURUSD NEUTRAL Initial support is at 1.3556, a break below which would extend the weakness to 1.3477. Resistance is at 1.3685 ahead of 1.3739.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Resistance is at 103.10 ahead of 103.65. Support is at 101.47 ahead of 100.76.
GBPUSD BULLISH The pair resumed its broader bullish trend and resistance focus is at 1.6668. A break above which would open the way to 1.6747. Support is at 1.6426.
USDCHF NEUTRAL There is a strong support at 0.8903. A break through this level…
Added by Daologic on February 13, 2014 at 10:45am — No Comments
GBPUSD has extended gains yesterday and now already trading at 1.6600 region. Personaltiy of the latest bullish run is very sharp so we suspect it's impulse in progress, thus part of an uptrend. We adjusted the wave count and labeled a five wave decline from 1.6667 as wave (c) that was pwar of an expanded flat in wave B. If that is the case then pair is now heading higher in wave C towards 1.6730 area.
GBPUSD 4h Elliott Wave Analysis…Continue
Added by Gregor Horvat on February 13, 2014 at 10:12am — No Comments
Notwithstanding the jump in GBP post BoE inflation report, we see pressure building for further gains. The market may be reluctant to buy at the top of its recent range, but may be left scrambling if it breaks through. The recent strong UK data and outlook from the BoE suggest it is moving closer to hike than other central banks, albeit trying to keep rate hike expectations in check.…Continue
"Sterling Steals the Show
Sterling has moved to new session highs, even as the euro is pinned near its lows. The market's response to the Bank of England's Quarterly Inflation Report and updated forward guidance is going to frustrate…
Added by Daologic on February 12, 2014 at 3:00pm — No Comments
"The big event today is the BOE's Quarterly Inflation Report and the updated economic assessment and forward guidance. We noted yesterday that the implied yield of the March 2015 short-sterling had fallen by about 30 bp since January 23 as the market priced in Carney's push back against early tightening expectations. While Carney continues to argue against the need for an…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 12, 2014 at 12:24pm — No Comments
"Look for Market to Push Back Against Carney
The Bank of England's Quarterly Inflation Report will be released tomorrow, followed by comments Governor Carney. He is expected to signal that despite…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 11, 2014 at 2:30pm — No Comments
"Ahead of the UK inflation report on Tuesday, the UK BRC retail sales monitor showed a sharp jump in the pace of sales in Jan (5.4%y/y, up from 1.8%y/y in Dec). Like for like sales rose 3.9%y/y in Jan, above 0.8% expected, up from 0.4%y/y in Dec, the fastest rate since Apr-2011. The rise was led by non-food up 4.0%y/y).
On Monday, the Lloyds employment confidence survey balance rose from -12 to -2, a high since 2005. The data suggests that the recovery in the UK remains robust.…
Added by Daologic on February 11, 2014 at 7:51am — No Comments
"Central Bank Fight Back | With equities off their recent highs and data a little softer than hoped, we expect G4 central banks to start fighting back with dovish rhetoric. While the ECB disappointed last week by not cutting the refi rate or toughening their guidance significantly, it simply appears to have postponed the discussion of additional easing until March. Another monthly undershoot in inflation may be sufficient news to see an easing of monetary policy at the next meeting. The ECB…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 10, 2014 at 10:40am — No Comments
"EURUSD BEARISH While resistance holds at 1.3639, the risk is for resumption of downtrend as bearish conditions are in place. Support is at 1.3552 ahead of 1.3458.
USDJPY NEUTRAL The latest recovery suggests extension of the broader consolidation phase. Resistance is at 103.10 and 103.65. Support is at 100.76 ahead of 99.97.
As a reaction to the recent sharp sell-off which stalled just above main support at 1.6220, there’s scope for upside in the near-term.…
Added by Daologic on February 10, 2014 at 10:00am — No Comments
"New Phase has Begun
In general, the price action in recent weeks has been characterized by weaker equities, firmer core bonds, heavy emerging markets and a firmer yen and US dollar. Our technical…Continue
1. Remember to place here you calls for GBP/USD price for Friday 14 February- 2014 London Open at 7:00AM GMT.
2. Just place ONE forecast, example: GBP/USD at 1.6385.
The GBPUSD halted its losses few days ago at the 1.6260 levels – 50% retracement – of 1.5853 / 1.6668 run , and formed a rising support channel , momentum indicators show that fall from 1.6668 losses its momentum , resistance comes at the 1.6440 levels , sustained trading above this level will suggest that fall from probably is over , If seen the pair is likely to recapture the 1.6668 levels, a halt could be seen , but break of 1.6668 would target 1.6889 levels – %127.2 extension – of…Continue