Rabobank - "Even if UK fundamentals suggest that sterling should be offer some support at current levels another burst of broad-based USD strength would still leave cable vulnerable. Later this week Fed chairman Bernanke will be speaking. He may give the market more reason to be optimistic on the US economic recovery. If this is the case cable will clearly be vulnerable. However, there is also a strong risk that Bernanke may also push back against the view that the tapering of QE is almost…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 9, 2013 at 9:22am — No Comments
The GBPUSD continued to decline last week, topped at 15303 and bottomed at 1.4856, now pressure will be on the key support 1.4856, the GBPUSD will have to hold below the 1.4856 levels on a weekly closing basis to push the market for further downside losses,Is seen it will target the 1.4600 levels where a breach will turn focus on the 1.4300 levels, note that a daily close below 1.4856 is an early warning for further decline towards 1.4700/600 levels.
On the upside, resistance is at…
Added by Haitham653 on July 8, 2013 at 8:12pm — No Comments
Rabobank - "Central bankers and US payrolls data appeared to leave the outlook for EUR/USD and GBP/USD cut and dried last week. Both the ECB and BoE were dovish while the better headline numbers within the US labour report has encouraged speculation of tapering of QE from the Fed as soon as September. Although there is little US data scheduled this week, investors will have the benefit of the minutes of the June FOMC meeting in addition to a speech from Fed President Bernanke later in the…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 8, 2013 at 11:04am — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY BULLISH The pair extended its strength this morning and the potential is for the test of key resistance at 103.74. Support is at 99.26.
GBPUSD BEARISH Sharp fall seen on Friday is trading just above the key support 1.4832. A closing break below this would be negative. Resistance is at 1.5080.
USDCHF BULLISH Friday the pair closed above the resistance at 0.9568. This was positive opening 0.9839. Support is at 0.9560.
EURUSD BEARISH With the bear trend intact focus is…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 8, 2013 at 8:42am — No Comments
UBS - "We have held a negative GBPUSD view for all of 2013, with our key argument being the likelihood of a major monetary policy shift in a dovish direction under the new Carney administration. We reflected this via a short GBPUSD trade recommendation established on 14 Feb (we bought a 6-month 15 Aug expiry 1.4800 strike GBP put / USD call with spot at 1.5500 for 0.9975% of face), arguing that both GBP downside and cable implied volatility were underpriced given the risks involved,…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 5, 2013 at 3:45pm — No Comments
As shown on the weekly chart below , fall from 1.6380 levels was contained by 1.4830 levels, rebound from 1.4830 levels vanished at 1.5750 levels 61.8% of 1.4830/1.6380 run, now we have 2 options :
1- A break below 1.4830 would suggest that rebound from 1.4830 is over at 1.5750, and fall from 1.6380 will extend beneath 1.4830 towards 1.4400 ahead of 1.3900 levels.
2- A break above 1.5750 levels would suggest that fall from 1.6380 is over at 1.4830, and rebound from 1.4830 will…Continue
Added by Haitham653 on July 5, 2013 at 12:17pm — No Comments
BMO Capital Markets - "Major central banks are adjusting their overall policy stances in relation to the prospects for Fed QE tapering. As a result, they are aiming to anchor their short-term and long-term rates. Effectively, this strategy is developing into a de-facto interest rate spread cap versus USD rates. There will therefore be less room for appreciation of these currencies relative to the USD in the weeks ahead regardless of their economic dataflow, leaving USD/JPY, GBP/USD and…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 5, 2013 at 10:36am — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH With the bear trend intact focus is on the key support at 1.2797. A break below this would suggest scope for further downside. Resistance is at 1.3078.
USDJPY BULLISH Our focus is on the key resistance at 103.74. Downside should be limited with support at 98.16.
GBPUSD BEARISH The pair closed below the key support at 1.5183. This was a strong bearish development, exposing 1.5009. Resistance is at 1.5279.
USDCHF BULLISH Any recovery should be limited with a…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 4, 2013 at 10:23am — No Comments
Deutsche Bank - "UK data has been unambiguously strong recently, but we remain bearish GBP. First, similar to the yen, we don't think outright growth matters for a currency, but how it translates into flow. For the UK, the odds are stronger data translate into weaker flow.
(...) Second, we don't think better growth numbers will translate into tighter monetary policy either. It is too early to justify a hawkish turn, with the output gap large and both household and government leverage…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 4, 2013 at 9:56am — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH With the MACD below its zero line, potential is for further downside. Immediate support is at 1.2985 ahead of 1.2797. Resistance is at 1.3150.
USDJPY NEUTRAL The pair is trading just below the strong resistance at 99.94. A closing break above this would be positive, opening 103.74. Support is at 99.18 ahead of 96.82.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Weakness is held by the key support at 1.5183, which was tested on Friday. A closing break below this would a strong bearish…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 2, 2013 at 11:43am — No Comments
ANZ - "As USD/JPY continues towards the secondary squeeze target of 100.00, the biggest concern is that this is not merely a sharp corrective squeeze, but could be an early resumption of JPY weakness and a push towards 105.00-106.00. Either way, dips should now be seen as a buying opportunity.
A dip below 99.10 could trigger some near term pullbacks to the 96.65-97.50 area (a buying opportunity) with stops raised to 96.00.
GBPUSD Although the…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 2, 2013 at 10:20am — No Comments
The GBPUSD continued to maintain its bearish momentum last week,topped at 1.5477, bottomed at 1.5165, and closed at 1.5205.
On the downside , the weekly close below 1.5368 , opens the way towards 1.5130 levels ahead of 1.4900 levels,break of 1.5165 will accelerate the bearish move towards 1.5130/1.4900 levels.
On the upside, resistance is at 1.5345, a daily close above this level will open the way towards 1.5477 levels, break of 1.5477 on a daily closing basis is likely…
Added by Haitham653 on July 2, 2013 at 6:56am — No Comments
Brown Brothers Harriman - "Before the weekend, the Dollar Index set new highs for the move, while sterling and the Australian dollar recorded new lows. The euro and Canadian dollar came within ticks of the lows set earlier in the week. While there may be some consolidation ahead of the key events next week, which include several central bank meetings (RBA, Riksbank, BOE and ECB), the monthly PMIs and US employment data, the US dollar is likely to continue to strengthen.
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 1, 2013 at 12:15pm — No Comments
The GBPUSD maintained a bearish momentum the past few days, now pressure will be on the key support 1.5367, the GBPUSD will have to hold below the 1.5367 levels on a daily closing basis to push the market for further downside losses, If seen, it will target the 1.5260 levels where a breach will turn focus on the 1.5130 levels, further break will look for the 1.4980 levels.
Alternatively, a failure to hold below the 1.5367 levels, could mean a return to the 1.5530 levels, a…Continue
Added by Haitham653 on June 25, 2013 at 10:00pm — No Comments
The GBPUSD maintained a bearish momentum last week, topped at 1.5750 and bottomed at 1.5367, now pressure will be on the key support 1.5367, the GBPUSD will have to hold below the 1.5367 levels on a weekly closing basis to push the market for further downside losses, If seen, it will target the 1.5260 levels ahead of 1.5130, further break will turn focus on the 1.5000 levels.
Alternatively , a failure to hold below the 1.5367 levels could mean a return to the 1.5750 levels, If seen…Continue
Added by Haitham653 on June 24, 2013 at 12:50pm — No Comments
Currently we are at 1.5450 after breaking out of the bear flag. We are looking for a continuation to the S5 @ 1.5377 with the overall target at the support cluster @ 1.5320-30. Quadruple witching day today so be careful. The average daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 126 pips.…Continue
Added by Scott Barkley on June 21, 2013 at 1:00pm — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BULLISH The pair posted a new high and is approaching the resistance at 1.3520 ahead of 1.3711. Support is at 1.3319.
USDJPY BEARISH The weakness since mid-May is approaching the significant support at 93.57. A closing break below this would be further negative opening 90.43. Resistance is at 96.10.
GBPUSD BULLISH As the bull trend persists any downside will be limited with a strong support at 1.5468. Broader focus is on the strong resistance at 1.5789; a closing…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 19, 2013 at 7:28am — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BULLISH With the MACD above its zero line, the potential is for further upside. Resistance is at 1.3390 ahead of 1.3520. Support is at 1.3266
USDJPY BEARISH The weakness since mid–May is approaching the significant support at 93.57. A closing break below this would be further negative opening 90.43. Resistance is at 96.10.
GBPUSD BULLISH There is a strong resistance at 1.5789. A closing break above this would be further positive opening 1.5879. Support is at…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 17, 2013 at 11:05am — No Comments
The GBPUSD continued to maintain its bullish momentum last week, topped at 1.5737, and closed at 1.5703.
With the break of 1.5683 levels, next resistance would be 1.5900, stability above 1.5900 on a weekly closing basis will open the way towards 1.6200 levels.
On the downside , support is at 1.5630 ahead of 1.5487, as long as the pair trades above those levels, it’s likely to return to its upside bais with risk towards 1.5800/900 levels, losing 1.5487 will turn…
The GBPUSD continued to maintain its bullish momentum after breaking above 1.5630/1.5687 levels, next resistance is at 1.5803 ahead of 1.5878, stability above 1.5878 on a daily closing basis will have large bullish implication, and sooner or later the pair will target 1.6060 ahead of 1.6250.
On the downside, note that rejection from 1.5803/1.5878 levels is suggested , support is at 1.5630, a daily close below this level would weaken the current bullish run and pave the way towards…Continue
Added by Haitham653 on June 13, 2013 at 8:49pm — No Comments