UBS - "USDJPY BULLISH With the broader bull trend in place, any downside will be limited. Support is at 97.90 ahead of 97.01. Important resistance is at 99.95 ahead of 101.45.
GBPUSD BULLISH Critical resistance at 1.5606, a closing break above this would be positive opening the way to 1.5689 and 1.5789. Support is at 1.5481 ahead of 1.5402.
EURUSD NEUTRAL Initial support is at 1.3033, a break below this would expose 1.2995 and then 1.2936. Resistance is at 1.3159 ahead of…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 7, 2013 at 7:30am — No Comments
National Australia Bank - "Key trade ideas:
We remain long of USD/JPY from 99.40, looking for a break through 100 in the wake of stronger US data.
Our short AUD, long CAD established at 1.0635 is more than 2 cents in the money and we still target parity.
We have closed our short AUD/NZD position from 1.2525 at 1.2058 for a profit of 3.73%, though we stand ready to re-sell given divergent economic fundamentals and rate profiles.
We are still short GBP/USD from 1.5150, but will…
Brown Brothers Harriman - "The Dollar-Index did rally in the second half of last week, but ran into a wall of offers near 82.50 a key retracement objective of the previous week's drop. Provided this area holds, we are more inclined to see it fall toward 81.20 and maybe 80.70.
The decline in the euro in the second half of last week largely held a trend line drawn off the April 4 and April 24 lows. The trend line comes in near $1.3070 on Monday and $1.3125 by the end of next week. Initial…
GBPUSD is moving short rang ascending channel. Currently testing upper trend line and resistance zone. With repeated r ejection from current zone it is anticipated that price will move for a corrective move from current zone. Break out of current resistance zone will provide short term Short Setup.
Outlook – Short
Short Entry (1.55830 - 1.55435)
TP 1 - 1.55050
TP 2 - 1.53982
Added by Sardar Uddin on May 5, 2013 at 10:25pm — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY NEUTRAL The latest setback does not change the broader bullish picture as long as strong support at 95.80 holds. Initial resistance is at 98.20 ahead of the psychological 100.00.
GBPUSD BULLISH The pair posts new recovery high and tested the critical resistance at 1.5606, a closing break above this would open 1.5689. Support is at 1.5468.
USDCHF BEARISH There is a critical support at 0.9207 ahead of 0.9150. Near-term resistance is at 0.9310 ahead of 0.9384.
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 2, 2013 at 10:17am — No Comments
As per last update, we are in the targeted zone. A zone start from 1.5580 to 1.5620 area. 1.5580 is strong resistance on chart while, 1.5616 is a=c in wave y. I am keeping my sell trigger on, and as soon as I can see reversal pattern on 240 min chart / daily chart, short can be initiated with stop at latest high, 1st target can be 1.52, while second target can be well below 1.48.
Also, started looking for…Continue
My primary view is bearish on pound.
Monthly chart showing five down from 1.6380 after broken weekly uptrend line. That wave can be counted as wave A of ZigZag correction or wave 1 of large impulse move. As chart is on monthly bases, I still not prefer to count them into impulsive manner, rather can be counted as a swing. And so, my preferred count would be the zigzag correction. As part of zigzag…Continue
Added by FxMind on April 30, 2013 at 1:00pm — No Comments
Wells Fargo - "The United Kingdom experienced a sharp depreciation of its currency during the GFC. Between its high in July 2007 and its low in March 2009, Britain’s real effective exchange rate fell more than 25 percent (Figure 7).4 Not only did sterling weaken significantly against the U.S. dollar during the GFC as investors moved into the safe-haven of the greenback, but the British pound also depreciated vis-à-vis the euro.5 This real exchange depreciation undoubtedly played a role in…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 30, 2013 at 12:06pm — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "The most recent activity indicators in the UK have improved against down-trodden expectations. It avoided the triple dip recession feared last week. With activity indicators deteriorating faster recently in the US, Europe and China, the UK is looking relatively better. There is no BoE meeting this week. And if their was, they would still probably leave policy unchanged.
After GBP's slide in Q1, it has been consolidating recently, retracing over one-third of this…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 30, 2013 at 10:02am — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY NEUTRAL The latest setback does not change the broader bullish picture as long as strong support at 95.80 holds. Resistance is at the psychological 100.00.
GBPUSD BULLISH The pair posts new recovery high and is approaching resistance at 1.5550. The next major resistance is at 1.5606, a break above this would open 1.5689. Support is at 1.5419 ahead of 1.5361.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Support is at 0.9387, a move below would expose 0.9319. Near-term resistance is at 0.9457 ahead of…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 29, 2013 at 9:36am — No Comments
The GBPUSD continued to maintain its bullish momentum the past few weeks, now pressure will be on the key resistance 1.5507 - high of the week 17 Feb 2013 , this level is a pivotal in the medium/long term outlook, to resume its upside offensive , a break and hold above 1.5507 on a weekly closing basis is needed,If seen, we would have 2 scenarios :
Scenario A : the pair will hold above 1.5507 before attacking 1.5775 ahead of 1.6000 levels, break of 1.6000 will target 1.6400…Continue
UBS - "EURUSD Resistance is at 1.3108, a break above this would open the more critical 1.3202 and then 1.3232. Support is at 1.2955 and 1.2920 – a breach here would be a bearish development.
USDJPY As long as support at 97.85 holds, there’s scope for extension of the broader bull trend. Resistance is at the psychological 100.00, a break above this would be positive, opening 101.45.
GBPUSD Having closed above 1.5424, the risk is for further upside in the near-term as the trending…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 26, 2013 at 8:23am — No Comments
The GBPUSD continued its bullish momentum the past few weeks, after breaking of the 1.5155 levels, now pressure will be on the 1.5508/1.5544 levels, the GBPUSD will have to hold above the 1.5544 levels on a daily closing basis, to push the market for further upside gains, If seen, this scenario will have large bullish implication , and sooner or later the pair will target the 1.5853/1.5995 levels, where rejection is suggested but a breach will turn focus on the 1.6380…Continue
Added by Haitham653 on April 26, 2013 at 4:33am — No Comments
I have very mix view on this pair.
Either we are in the nested impulse count where, we are testing flat correction in  (Red), or either wave [c] (Blue) is over and we might see push higher for 1.54 and 1.5480 area. The reason on which I am looking for alternate count, is the bearish channel was broken, (marked with ellipse), and indicator were bullish.
Royal Bank of Scotland -
"• Comparing the Q1 2013 with Q4 2012, overall bid-ask spreads increased in developed spot markets while they decreased in emerging spot markets.
• The level of trading activity in the first quarter of 2013 was much higher compared to last quarter of 2012.
• Looking at trade counts on dealer platforms and deal size estimates to calculate approximate USD market shares of the various currency pairs, AUDUSD share dropped by 2% from 2012 Q4 to 2013 Q1 while…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 24, 2013 at 2:19pm — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD NEUTRAL Having tested support at 1.2974, there’s scope for a move to next support at 1.2920, a break below which would be a bearish development, triggering deeper sell-off to 1.2746. Resistance is at 1.3084 ahead of 1.3202.
USDJPY BULLISH Resistance is at the psychological 100.00, a break above this would be positive opening 101.45. Support is at 98.49 ahead of 97.85.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Support is at 1.5190, a breach of which would trigger deeper sell-off to 1.5122 and then…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 24, 2013 at 7:54am — No Comments
Goldman Sachs - "FX Forecasts: We continue to expect EUR/GBP to appreciate to 0.91, 0.94 and 0.94 in 3, 6 and 12 months. This implies GBP/$ at 1.49 flat. Current GSDEER for EUR/GBP is 0.80 and for GBP/$ is 1.47.
Motivation for Our FX View: While the first leg of EUR/GBP appreciation in 2H2012 was linked to the relaxation of Euro area tensions, GBP weakness has become more idiosyncratic in 2013. The forthcoming change in BoE leadership has created…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 23, 2013 at 5:59pm — No Comments
On top of my earlier morning post, I updated 240min chart with EW labels. Price need to decide which way it need to go. I prefer to be sideline and waiting for either to break.
price either need to break lower blue channel or break Red down trend line. And hence, I decided to banked 46 pips here. On confirmation of either…Continue
Added by FxMind on April 23, 2013 at 6:57am — No Comments
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 22, 2013 at 2:23pm — No Comments
Current price is testing the uptrend channel, also testing the huge support drawn on daily chart. If this support breaks, we can see more downside towards 1.51, or we can possibly see two possibilities
a) Either we see bounce here, to test median and then fall back to 1.51
b) Or, we will see straight up to 1.546 area.…Continue
Added by FxMind on April 22, 2013 at 8:22am — No Comments