ING Bank - "The Fed’s campaign to reinforce a message that tapering is not tightening has seen the USD hand back the gains that by early July had, on some measures, taken it to its highest level for three years. Yet we feel that its recent weakening needs to be placed in the context of a USD that is still well within the ranges established so far in 2013. Our base case remains very much for the USD to enjoy a strong recovery into year-end, even if the catalyst for its gains is in danger of…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on August 15, 2013 at 11:19am — No Comments
Recommendations: LONG positions above 1.5493 with 1.5570 & 1.5630 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The downside breakout of 1.5493 will call for a slide to 1.5455/22.
Description: The pair trades above its support 1.5493, stability above this level will build pressure on the 1.5575 levels, losing 1.5493 on hourly closing basis would delay the bullish for retesting 1.5422/55, but downside below 1.5493 is likely to be…
The GBPUSD maintained a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.5546, bottomed at 1.5422, now a strong pressure will be built on the 1.5575 levels , however ; this development leaves the pair targeting the 1.5575 levels, where a breach is likely, If seen , next resistance is at 1.5615 , a breach will target the 1.5675 levels, further more will aim the 1.5750 levels.
On the downside, to neutralize the bullish attack , the pair will have to break and hold below the 1.5422 levels on…
EURUSD: So far, the pair remains under pressure , resistance is at 1.3315 ahead of 1.3366, stability below resistance levels is likely to add pressure on 1.3175/165 levels, a halt is suggested but losing this level will open the way towards 1.3100 levels .
On the upside , resistance is at 1.3315 levels, stability above this level on a 4 hour closing basis would weaken the current bearish run, above 1.3315 will open the way towards 1.3366 levels, a clear break…
The GBPUSD maintained some bearish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.5521 , bottomed at 1.5458 levels, now pressure will be on the key support 1.5458 , the GBPUSD will have to hold below the 1.5458 levels on a daily closing basis to push the market for further downside losses,If seen, a short term top will be confirmed at 1.5575, next support is at the 1.5355 levels, a breach will turn focus on the 1.5200 levels, but downside below the 1.5458 levels is likely to be contained well above the…Continue
EURUSD: the EURUSD corrected a lower bit last week after reaching 1.3400 levels, resistance is at 1.3366 levels , stability below this level on a 4 hour closing basis will build a pressure on the 1.3300/1.3265 levels, however; break of 1.3366 levels on a 4 hour closing basis is likely to expose 1.3415 levels and target 1.3450/500 levels.…
The GBPUSD maintained a strong bullish momentum last week , and reached as high as 1.5573 , closed at 1.5505 levels, recent development leaves the pair targeting the 1.5530 levels , a halt is suggested as seen last week , but a breach will have large bullish implication towards 1.5750 levels.
On the downside, support is at 1.5434 levels, main support comes at 1.5204, so as long as this level holds on a daily closing basis , the pair will remain biased to the upside towards 1.5530…
Added by Haitham653 on August 11, 2013 at 3:30am — No Comments
HSBC - "At the moment the market is seeing excellent UK data but only moderate-to-disappointing US data and that is pushing GBP higher. This is not a situation we believe will persist. UK monetary policy will eventually distance itself from the less dovish tone emanating from the US Fed. Such a divergence in policy is a rare event in UK-US economic history, and has been associated with GBP-USD weakness in the past. In addition, while the path of policy in both countries will be determined by…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on August 9, 2013 at 3:35pm — No Comments
With a sustained break above the 1.5303 levels , the GBPUSD is bullish in medium term outlook, a bottom has been confirmed at the 1.4813 levels.
This development leaves the pair targeting the 1.5750 levels where a breach is likely , If seen, a run toward the 1.5844 will be seen , further break will aim the 1.6154 levels.
On the downside, support is at 1.5303, sustained break below this level would only delay the bullish move, main support comes at the 1.4813 levels,…
With a strong rally pushing the pair higher for a third consecutive day, further gains are expected in the upcoming days towards the 1.5750 levels,now the pair trades at the key resistance 1.5530, a breach is likely, If seen, the pair will turn its focus on the 1.5750 levels, a break will look for the 1.5805 ahead of the 1.5878 levels , further break will aim the 1.6080 levels.
On the downside ,support is at 1.5434 levels , a break would only delay the bullish move ,next support…
Added by Haitham653 on August 8, 2013 at 5:30am — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY NEUTRAL The recent sell-off is approaching the critical support at 96.75.A closing break below this will trigger further sell-off. Resistance is at 98.59 ahead of 99.95.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Sharp advance was seen since Friday, is held by the critical resistance at 1.5394. A closing break above this would be positive. Support is at 1.5281 ahead of 1.5213.
USDCHF BEARISH The pair is approaching the first support at 0.9229. A move below this would trigger further sell-off…
Added by Francesc Riverola on August 7, 2013 at 2:53pm — No Comments
If you back to my weekly forecast , I've said the pair needs to break above the 1.5355 levels , note that the pair was rejected the past 2 days from 1.5355 levels on the daily chart , anyway today focus is on Carney and Bank Of England's inflation report at 09:30 am GMT , this report includes the BOE's projection for inflation and economic growth over the next 2 years. The BOE Governor also holds a press conference to discuss the report's contents upon release; It provides valuable insight…Continue
As shown on the monthly chart below, buyers failed to bottom 3 times in the past, once at 1.5271 (Oct 2011 low), the second one at 1.5233(Jan 2012 low), the last one at 1.5237 (Jun 2012 low) , because of the lack of bullish momentum , the pair extended its weakness beneath those level to get the needed momentum to help the pair rising once again , in other words, the GBPUSD is in extended bullish divergence on the monthly chart, this scenario is bearish in short term view (1-2) years and…Continue
Added by Haitham653 on August 5, 2013 at 1:40pm — No Comments
The GBPUSD maintained a bullish momentum last Friday , topped at 1.5307 levels, now pressure will be on the key resistance 1.5307, the GBPUSD will have to hold above the 1.5307 levels on a daily closing basis to push the market for further upside gains , If seen , it will target the 1.5355 levels where a breach will turn focus on the 1.5477 ahead of 1.5530, at this this point this level 1.5477/1.5530 is likely to contain any upside move and most likely we might see resumption of the whole…Continue
Added by Haitham653 on August 4, 2013 at 1:00pm — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BULLISH Yesterday’s sharp sell-off is viewed as a correction to unwind the overextended upside extremes. With the bull trend intact, potential is for the pair to move above 1.3302 to test the key resistance at 1.3417. Support is at 1.3120.
USDJPY NEUTRAL The pair advanced from the strong support at 96.75. This strength is approaching the resistance at 100.02. A closing break above this would trigger further upside.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL With the MACD threatening to cross…
Added by Francesc Riverola on August 2, 2013 at 3:00pm — No Comments
Currently we are at 1.5223 after the reaction to a negative Non Farm Payroll release. We are looking for a bullish continuation to the resistance area @ 1.5381. The pair will have to break above 1.5250 if not that would invalidate this. The average daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 128 pips.…Continue
Added by Scott Barkley on August 2, 2013 at 12:55pm — No Comments
EURUSD : As long as the daily close is above 1.3165, the pair is very bullish , strong and sudden rise is suggested, below 13165 would weaken / delay the current bullish run for retesting 1.3065/1.3000 levels, resistance is at 1.3300, a daily close above 1.3300 will open the way towards/beyond 1.3415 levels..
GBPUSD : The cable is under pressure withe further risk to the downside , resistance is 1.5222 ahead of 1.5353 (main) then 1.5412 , next…
Currently we are at 1.5166 after the break south of the expanding wedge. We are looking for a bullish continuation to the R5 / day chart target @ 1.506-5025. We have to break the support cluster in the 1.5160 area first. FOMC later – be careful! The average daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 128 pips.…Continue
Added by Scott Barkley on July 31, 2013 at 12:48pm — No Comments
Recommendations: SHORT positions below 1.5250 with 1.5195 & 1.5150 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The upside breakout of 1.5250 will call for a rebound to 1.5295/355
Description: The pair trades below its resistance at 1.5250, as long as this level holds ,the risk will remain to the downside towards 1.5200 ahead of 1.5150, an hourly close above 1.5250 will reverse risks to the upside towards 1.5300 , above 1.5295 will…
HSBC - "Over the next 10 days the markets will be focusing heavily on the policy meetings of the big four
This week: Fed, BoE, ECB
Next week: BoJ, RBA (We expect 25bp cut), BoE Carney inflation report
For those with a weak constitution look away now, because on top of these policy meetings we have crucial data: US GDP data (important benchmark revisions), ISM, Payrolls
By the end of the week we may have a better understanding of where we stand on the tapering debate. This…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 30, 2013 at 10:25pm — No Comments