The GBPUSD maintained a bullish momentum last week after topping at 1.5683, now pressure will be on the key resistance 1.5683. The GBPUSD will have to hold above the 1.5683 levels on a weekly closing basis to push the market for further upside gains,If seen ; expect the market to strengthen further towards the 1.5915 levels ahead of the 1.6215 levels, where a breach will turn focus on the 1.6540 levels.
On the downside, support is at 1.5191 ahead of the 1.5007 levels, then…Continue
Added by Haitham653 on June 8, 2013 at 10:13pm — No Comments
Rabobank - "The June Bank of England policy meeting was never likely to be a game changer for sterling. That said, the UK economy has entered into an interesting phase. Finally there are sufficient signs of improvement in data releases to indicate that the country may be entering into a nascent economic recovery. The slightly better tone of economic data will be a relief to Governor King who retires at the end of the month after a difficult tenure. However, King has still left plenty of work…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 7, 2013 at 5:51pm — No Comments
Currently we are at 1.5301. We are looking for a bounce here and then a run to the R5 1.5398. Expecting that to be the top of this corrective wave and then a move back to the downside. There is a day chart trend line before that which may prove to be too big a barrier to break. The current average daily trading range (ATR) is 99 pips.…Continue
Added by Scott Barkley on June 4, 2013 at 12:45pm — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY BEARISH Any upside will be limited in time and extent, as the broader focus is for a break below support at 97.31, extending weakness to 95.79. Resistance is at 100.73 and 101.31.
EURUSD NEUTRAL The latest strength suggests there is potential for extension to test the resistance at 1.3194 and then 1.3243. Support is at 1.2934 ahead of 1.2797.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL The recent advance found resistance at 1.5378. A closing break above which would be positive, signalling scope for…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 4, 2013 at 8:51am — No Comments
The GBPUSD maintained a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.5375 and closed at 1.5320. Now pressure will be on the key resistance 1.5375, the GBPUSD will have to hold above the 1.5375 on a daily closing basis to push the market for further upside gains, If seen, it will target the 1.5475 levels ahead of 1.5600 where a breach will turn focus on the 1.5745 levels.
Alternatively, a failure to hold above the 1.5375 levels, could mean a return to the 1.5007 levels, but it needs to…Continue
Societé Generale -
- "Sterling bearishness against both the dollar and euro is now the clearest directional signal from G10 risk reversals.
- Vols are getting more nervous with cable’s down moves, and the EUR/GBP skew has turned sharply to the topside.
- But risk reversals should calm down for now: Carney starts in just a month and we expect the dollar’s upwave to take a pause. In H2 the cable downtrend will resume and propel vols.
- We recommend trading this two-step…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 1, 2013 at 7:10pm — No Comments
Gbp/Usd is in a flat correction, there will be possible reversal zones to short this pair as follow:
1) 1.5160 : c=a (100% expansion of wave a)
2) 1.5220 : 38.2% Fibonacci and daily resistance
3) 1.5285 : 50% Fibonacci
Personally, I believe 1.5220 will provide good selling entry. But my recommendation is to…Continue
UBS - "USDJPY BULLISH The latest setback found support at 100.38. A move below which would extend the correction to 99.58. Resistance is at 102.59, a break above would open 103.74 ahead of 105.60.
GBPUSD BEARISH Initial support is at 1.5014, a break below this would extend weakness to test the critical 1.4832. Resistance is at 1.5174 ahead of 1.5240.
USDCHF BULLISH The recent weakness does not change the broader bullish picture and major support is at 0.9543. Resistance is at…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 27, 2013 at 8:30am — No Comments
Aud.Jpy is on the path as mentioned on yesterday comment. Things are on the way to hit our 1st target @ 97, we can have second target 96.50 – 96.20 area. my recommendation is to book 80% @ 97 and leave 20% for 96.20. If you are in both trades, your avg entry will be 100.325, and so you should have more than 332 pips in profit @ 97.…Continue
Gbp.Usd started it’s correction of wave 2. Yesterday rally can be consider as first larger part of wave A, and in smaller timeframe, this can be W. Reason for considering my A-B-C count is primary is the channel. If price break channel with huge volume and heavy price action, I will consider the impulse count. But in same case and having less confidence factor, impulse count is still valid in form of nested count. Invalidation point of nested count is low of wave…Continue
Added by FxMind on May 24, 2013 at 1:12am — No Comments
Societé Generale - "Good Morning. Buy the dollar, sell EMFX and sell carry. It isn't about when the Fed “tapers”, it's about too many positions on the same side of the boat and the danger of a capsize.
When the Fed will slow its Treasury purchases will be data-dependent and the Funds rate may be less important in policy-making going forwards. Those are the direct takeaways from the FOMC minutes but the market tells us something different. The prospect of low rates for a long time…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 23, 2013 at 10:04am — No Comments
GBP/USD is well followed a path mentioned on my weekly count.
I believe, GBP/USD is now completed it’s pattern and looking for pull back here, I am building my long here. There are few reason for going long which are as follow:
UBS - "USDJPY BULLISH With the broader bull trend in place, the next major resistance focus is at 105.60. Support is at 101.26.
EURUSD BEARISH Any upside will be limited as bearish conditions persist. Resistance is at 1.2967 and 1.3020. Support is at 1.2797, a break below would expose 1.2746 ahead of the critical 1.2662.
The pair sold off sharply to test support at 1.5128 yesterday.
GBPUSD BEARISH There is scope for more downside in the near-term. Next support is at 1.5034 ahead…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 22, 2013 at 2:20pm — No Comments
JPY crosses are moving higher this mooring after BoJ Kuroda highlighted that change in fx-rates will boost export volume, but not earlier than in 6-9 months. This means that there current policy has a positive impact on the economy that’s why we can see strong rally on Nikkei which is pushing the JPY down, or XXX/JPY to the upside.
We are long EURJPY from 131.90 with members and so far pair is moving very nicely in our favour with possible extension to 133.80 in sessions…
Brown Brothers Harriman - "Euro: A large head and shoulders pattern is being carved out. The neckline is seen near the late March and early April lows around $1.2740. Below there is the low from last November near $1.2660, which is just below the $1.2680 retracement objective ($1.2680) of Draghi's OMT induced rally. The measuring objective of the head and shoulders pattern would carry the single currency below $1.20, our year-end target. The euro's 50-day moving average has…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 20, 2013 at 5:20pm — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "On the road seeing clients is always most enlightening, always the best way to take the market pulse. But the road can be a tricky place from which to develop detailed strategy ideas – too much distance from day-to-day detail.
So just a few bullets on broader, thematic, directional, conviction: In three words, keep buying Dollars.
(...) Yen is still your number (1) funding currency as Japanese foreign bond buying begins in semi earnest and on the critical…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 20, 2013 at 11:02am — No Comments
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "The pound has outperformed over the last two months with the trade-weighted index increasing by 3.0% from its recent low point recorded on the 12th March. The pound’s recent outperformance followed a period of heavy selling in early 2013 when the trade-weighted index declined by close to 7.0%. Despite the recent corrective rebound, the trade-weighted pound still remains around 3.9% lower than at the end of last year. The pound’s recent upward momentum now appears…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 16, 2013 at 7:13pm — No Comments
ANZ - "Slippage from 1.5600 may seem relatively sharp, but the broader profile remains that of defining a trading range after the slump to 1.4830-50 in March. The 1.5125-1.5225 area ought to hold and provide support for a secondary push towards the 1.5750-75 area."…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 15, 2013 at 10:33am — No Comments
GBPUSD reversed sharply lower in the last few days with a daily close price beneath the lower side of a corrective channel which is an important sign for a completed rally since mid-March. In fact, decline from 1.5590 is looking sharp so we think it represents an impulsive formation which occurs in the direction of a primary trend. As such, we think GBPUSD will continue to weaken in days maybe even weeks ahead. Break of wave B) key level at 1.5195 will be next important evidence for a larger…Continue
Added by Gregor Horvat on May 14, 2013 at 8:20am — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "After a string of better data, we expect some weaker UK data to start coming through over the next week or so. More broadly, data surprises appear to be having a diminishing supportive impact on GBP. While data forecasters may have been slow to adjust, there appears a more widespread market view that data will surprise. Investors can't be surprised by a surprise that everyone expects. The second derivative of surprises already looks to be turning over. GBP/USD…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 13, 2013 at 6:30pm — No Comments