Brown Brothers Harriman - "Euro: A large head and shoulders pattern is being carved out. The neckline is seen near the late March and early April lows around $1.2740. Below there is the low from last November near $1.2660, which is just below the $1.2680 retracement objective ($1.2680) of Draghi's OMT induced rally. The measuring objective of the head and shoulders pattern would carry the single currency below $1.20, our year-end target. The euro's 50-day moving average has…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 20, 2013 at 5:20pm — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "On the road seeing clients is always most enlightening, always the best way to take the market pulse. But the road can be a tricky place from which to develop detailed strategy ideas – too much distance from day-to-day detail.
So just a few bullets on broader, thematic, directional, conviction: In three words, keep buying Dollars.
(...) Yen is still your number (1) funding currency as Japanese foreign bond buying begins in semi earnest and on the critical…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 20, 2013 at 11:02am — No Comments
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "The pound has outperformed over the last two months with the trade-weighted index increasing by 3.0% from its recent low point recorded on the 12th March. The pound’s recent outperformance followed a period of heavy selling in early 2013 when the trade-weighted index declined by close to 7.0%. Despite the recent corrective rebound, the trade-weighted pound still remains around 3.9% lower than at the end of last year. The pound’s recent upward momentum now appears…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 16, 2013 at 7:13pm — No Comments
ANZ - "Slippage from 1.5600 may seem relatively sharp, but the broader profile remains that of defining a trading range after the slump to 1.4830-50 in March. The 1.5125-1.5225 area ought to hold and provide support for a secondary push towards the 1.5750-75 area."…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 15, 2013 at 10:33am — No Comments
GBPUSD reversed sharply lower in the last few days with a daily close price beneath the lower side of a corrective channel which is an important sign for a completed rally since mid-March. In fact, decline from 1.5590 is looking sharp so we think it represents an impulsive formation which occurs in the direction of a primary trend. As such, we think GBPUSD will continue to weaken in days maybe even weeks ahead. Break of wave B) key level at 1.5195 will be next important evidence for a larger…Continue
Added by Gregor Horvat on May 14, 2013 at 8:20am — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "After a string of better data, we expect some weaker UK data to start coming through over the next week or so. More broadly, data surprises appear to be having a diminishing supportive impact on GBP. While data forecasters may have been slow to adjust, there appears a more widespread market view that data will surprise. Investors can't be surprised by a surprise that everyone expects. The second derivative of surprises already looks to be turning over. GBP/USD…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 13, 2013 at 6:30pm — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY BULLISH The pair extended its strength and is approaching first resistance at 103.07, a break above which would open the important 105.50. Support is at 100.54 ahead of 98.58.
GBPUSD BULLISH The latest setback does not change the broader bullish picture. Support is at 1.5310 ahead of 1.5219. Resistance is at 1.5458 ahead of 1.5606.
EURUSD NEUTRAL Friday's sell-off stalled exactly at the strong support at 1.2936. A closing break below would be a bearish development,…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 13, 2013 at 8:38am — No Comments
Deutsche Bank - "Macro conditions for B/Es have improved somewhat with commodities stabilizing and economic data on balance surprising on the upside again. Just like for the US and the euro area, our B/E momentum score appears to have bottomed, while remaining in negative territory. Some further confirmation of these trends will be needed in the coming weeks.
In the UK, an additional headwind for B/Es has been the renewed strengthening in the exchange rate. A sideways trend in…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 10, 2013 at 3:09pm — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "As a Top Theme and Trade for 2013 we recommended establishing a short GBP/USD position. We hit our initial 1.5050 within three months. We eventually closed the position on 11th April after spot retraced to hit our revised take-profit stop of 1.5390. The relatively poor structural position of the UK, particularly against the US has remained unchanged and hence the strategy remains compelling. We now believe that short-term risk/reward has once again shifted in favour…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 10, 2013 at 9:19am — No Comments
Fundamental speaking the UK needs a weaker currency. Tough the major devaluation has already taken place, even so, the UK pound have enough room to the downside. In this regard see the Morgan Stanley last report and MigBank report.
In the first picture below, we have the weekly chart. The price is below the kumo. The future kumo is negative. The TS/KS cross is below the kumo. Kijun Sen is near the 4/8 MML and act as a strong resistance and the price have been rejected. The Chikou span…Continue
The GBPUSD has been consolidating for almost 2 weeks below the key resistance 1.5630, note that as long as 1.5803/1.5630 levels hold on a daily closing basis , the risk to return to 1.4830 level will remain valid and strong ,a daily close below 1.5457 will pave the way towards 1.5284 levels, but in return, stability above 1.5803 on a daily closing basis is likely to have large bullish implication, If seen, sooner or later the pair would target 1.6300 levels...
Support levels : 1.5457,…Continue
GBP/USD is forming the bullish setup as mentioned on my earlier post.So Keeping that in mind, we require to have see 1.5700-1.5750 in coming days. Pair already confirmed the bullish idea by breaking the channel out and can label as described in below image. Any long should have stop loss @ 1.5465
On alternate idea, we can expect a flat correction, but the probability of flat correction is very…Continue
Added by FxMind on May 9, 2013 at 4:39am — No Comments
Westpac - "We have run with a positive bias on GBP for some time now, having chosen to hold this via short EUR/GBP. On Feb 26, we recommended selling EUR/GBP on strength. On March 28 we recommend taking back half of that short position.
On April 11th, we recommended buying GBP outright on the grounds that it was under-owned and was likely to benefit more than most from an improved risk sentiment post the BoJ's QQME announcement. We established long GBP at 1.5333 and added on dips to…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 8, 2013 at 10:54am — No Comments
Current price is not bearish at all, at least on my primary count. We might see price trading above 1.56 area. On Alternate idea, we might be in wave 1 of first impulse leg down. But that too is not completed, We only can identified 3 waves. So here is the game plan for gbp/usd.
Case 1: Trading for wave 5 (Primary) Bullish Setup
we will wait…Continue
Added by FxMind on May 8, 2013 at 2:54am — No Comments
As shown on the 4 hour chart posted below, the GBPUSD has formed a breakout pattern, support at 1.5476, resistance at 1.5600, a four hour close above 1.5600 will advance the pair further higher towards 1.5725 and 1.5850 levels, while a four hour close below 1.5476 will open the way to 1.4350 and 1.4225 levels.
Recommendation 1 # : Buying the pair with a 4 hour closing above 1.5600 targeting 1.5725 and 1.5850 levels , stop loss below 1.5476 levels.
Gbp/Usd current price might be part of flat correction of wave 4, and expecting another high above 1.5605 before it having sell off. I booked 29 pips profit and decided to see the reaction here. There are chances on which, pound can drop to 1.52 from current price. But on 240 min, chart, there were no impulse action found. and only way I can count is flat correction.
On NFP day, there were sell off happen,…Continue
Added by FxMind on May 7, 2013 at 12:36pm — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY BULLISH With the broader bull trend in place, any downside will be limited. Support is at 97.90 ahead of 97.01. Important resistance is at 99.95 ahead of 101.45.
GBPUSD BULLISH Critical resistance at 1.5606, a closing break above this would be positive opening the way to 1.5689 and 1.5789. Support is at 1.5481 ahead of 1.5402.
EURUSD NEUTRAL Initial support is at 1.3033, a break below this would expose 1.2995 and then 1.2936. Resistance is at 1.3159 ahead of…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 7, 2013 at 7:30am — No Comments
National Australia Bank - "Key trade ideas:
We remain long of USD/JPY from 99.40, looking for a break through 100 in the wake of stronger US data.
Our short AUD, long CAD established at 1.0635 is more than 2 cents in the money and we still target parity.
We have closed our short AUD/NZD position from 1.2525 at 1.2058 for a profit of 3.73%, though we stand ready to re-sell given divergent economic fundamentals and rate profiles.
We are still short GBP/USD from 1.5150, but will…