EUR has reversed losses after testing 1.3500 support and now it is back to the SMA200 resistance at 1.3650. We have also a diagonal resistance line somewhere around 1.3670 and we need to break above the 1.3670 to progress to 1.3740-50. Continuation to 1.3805 is less possible but not impossible. Downside will be restored once the pair breaks below 1.3590. Between 1.3620 and 1.3650 the pair is locked and sideways movements can be expected.
GOLD is blocked by the 1254-1258 resistance…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 9, 2014 at 5:02am — No Comments
The players yesterday quicklyas expected dropped for the ECB rate decision but reversed quickly to go above that of the initial high in EURO and GBP.They normally do this sort of quick reversal move for NFP.For a change they have done the day before for ECB rate decision.
Today they are expected to swing and slowly slide all the day as intentional move.Small swing and slide moves they may do for NFP and continue the slide during US session.
They donot make…Continue
EUR has tested 1.3500 after ECB rate cut yesterday, but then reversed quickly to the upside reaching 1.3670. Such reversals are always hard to explain and there are several reasons for that. But first of all i think that this is because the market is expecting FED to make additional stimulus to the economic growth like ECB has done, this has put the dollar under downside pressure against all currency pairs and commodities. This is the main reason for the risk aversion yesterday, and the…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 6, 2014 at 4:53am — No Comments
Although the upside extended, in a sharp spike, higher than assessed initially yesterday, gains were not maintained. Instead the market continued to fluctuate above the daily Ichimoku Cloud but without sustaining prices beyond last Wed’s Marabuzo line - the 3rd day in a row that that point has curtailed demand. It is that failure, coupled with selling interest attracted in Asia that means that intraday signals for sentiment are left negative with potential to 1.6693 and 1.6660.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on June 4, 2014 at 5:57am — No Comments
EUR is locked within the range between the support 1.3585 and resistance 1.3650. We are bearish as long as the pair is below 1.3630,above 1.3650 further recovery is possible to 1.3750-60, but i think that will be used for opening Short positions at a better price. The market is waiting for the ECB to act, if we have another rate cut the downside move may reach 1.3350-1.3310. Add to SHORT below 1.3550.
GOLD is above 1240, but on Daily is bearish, H4 is also bearish and H1 or smaller…Continue
EUR is going to consolidate until Thursday when it is expected ECB to make either a rate cut or to implement some new measures to support economic growth and to increase low inflation. This will put the EUR under extremely high downside pressure against all currencies. It is quite possible the downside move to be consumed day or two before the ECB meeting, because there are always leaks of information. It is good to know that every upside will be used to open SHORT positions at a better…Continue
First, take a look at the first 3 charts below:
Build shorts at every 100 pips starting with 1.3660 for a target at 1.35-1.34-1.33.
Build shorts at every 100 pips starting with 1.6770 for 1.64 target.
Build longs at every 100 pips starting with 0.89 for 0.91-0.92 target.
Estimated time 2-6 months.
Added by Daologic on May 30, 2014 at 6:21am — No Comments
Investors bought the cross to higher levels for a 3rd day in succession. However, although the market traded comfortably through the key 13 day avg, levels beyond that point were not maintained into the close. So despite this week's gains so far, it is the failure to extend beyond that point that signals a weakness of demand.
Coupled with the underlying negative tone reflected by the steady decline from March's high we look for a renewal of selling pressure with scope to .8104 and…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on May 30, 2014 at 6:16am — No Comments
EUR consolidates just at the support area 1.3590-1.3600, we are currently below the SMA200 @ 1.3640 and through 1.3660 we have a strong daily resistance area, which won't be broken easily. I recommend to SELL EUR on every attempt to test 1.3700 with 20 pips SL. Seems that the EUR is going to make some upside correction ahead of the next ECB meeting in June. As long as the price is below 1.3640 we are bearish.Above 1.3670 we may witness a test of 1.3705-1.3720. Weekly support is at…Continue
EUR is playing again with the support area 1.3620-30 where is also the Daily SMA200, currently we are trading a little below, but indicators say in several hours we may have a recovery to the upside. We have made some tests of 1.3600 level and a solid support has been built. Recovery will target 1.3675 first and then 1.3710-1.3740. If we reach all these and upside continues i do not expect to go much over 1.3770 so you may enter SHORT around there.
GOLD has finally decided to wake up…Continue
EUR has recovered a bit after several days of continuous falling, however while the price is below 1.3700 this move is considered only as a pullback to gather more downside power. The price has returned back above SMA200 at 1.3630. As long as we are above it further recovery is possible to 1.3690 and if broken to 1.3740-50. Any progress above 1.3740 will be too difficult almost impossible ahead of the next ECB meeting, and it is good to use any upside to open SHORT positins at a better…Continue
EUR is calm after trading negative 3 weeks in a row, currently stopped at 1.3620 support area which is just above the weekly support at 1.3570. Although a test of 1.3570 is possible i do not expect to close the week below. EUR is under pressure because of expectations for ECB to implement new stimulus next month. However the Dollar seems not able to benefit much of the situation and the progress against EUR and other currencies is pretty small and too weak. So this little advantage could…Continue
"The fact that sterling retains its place at the best performing developed world currency over the past 12 mths reflects the fact that there is a lot of good news priced-in. Long positions and the tendency for the market to allow itself to be carried away suggest that the pound is likely to be subject to bouts of profit-taking in the months ahead. That…Continue
Added by Daologic on May 23, 2014 at 8:39am — No Comments
EUR continues to trade inside the support area between 1.3650-1.3670, Daily and H4 indicators are pointing to the downside. Recovery is limited by two resistances - 1.3705 and 1.3740. If we break 1.3630 to the downside with more than 40 pips, and close the day below 1.3630, the returning back above 1.3650 will be almost impossible. Market prefers to wait for today's PMI data from Germany and Eurozone, and also for the US jobless claims data later today. It is quite possible for the EUR to…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on May 22, 2014 at 5:34am — No Comments
Full text is here
LONG EUR above 1.3700 SL 1.3690 TP 1.3730-1.3750-1.3765
SHORT EUR below 1.3690 SL 1.3700 TP 1.3660-1.3630-1.3610
LONG GOLD above 1309 SL 1306 TP 1318-1322-1331
SHORT GOLD below 1280 SL 1283 TP 1272-1266
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on May 19, 2014 at 5:19am — No Comments
EUR has made a quick test of the 1.3650 support yesterday, but quickly recovered above 1.3700 again, however Daily indicators are mixed and signal of a possible recovery to 1.3770 but only if 1.3720 is broken to the upside on H4. Below 1.3700 the pair is bearish. Upside may be restored only above 1.3810 and there is no way to happen right now. Daily support is at 1.3620 where is the SMA200, if broken the downside pressure over the EUR will increase dramatically and the price may test even…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on May 16, 2014 at 5:53am — No Comments
Exchange rate a factor, but BoE only vigilant on 'persistence'
On balance, the result of the QIR was probably better for sterling longs rather than rate shorts. Although there was an explicit acknowledgement that currency strength was exerting downward pressure on inflation, Carney said the BoE was willing to 'look through' this development for now, and revisit if strength became 'persistent'. In contrast, there was much greater caution on the prospect of a higher base…
Added by Daologic on May 15, 2014 at 5:20am — No Comments
That said, we have argued recently that sterling's appreciation against the USD may be close to reaching maturity and that over the long run it has difficulty sustaining moves above the 1.70 area. This is not to say that the pound cannot test that level and move higher for short periods of time. But it is our view that better value is to be found in buying sterling against the euro (in the short term), yen and Commonwealth currencies (AUD, NZD and CAD) where the pound…Continue
Added by Daologic on May 14, 2014 at 4:01pm — No Comments
The background in GBPUSD remains last week's Bearish Inverted Hammer. Monday’s rally proved limited – unable to close above the 13 day moving average and failing at Friday’s Marabuzo line. The subsequent renewal of selling produced a 4th down day from the last 5 and although oversold extremes have produced profit taking in Asia we currently look for bounces to be limited with potential for renewed downside to focus on 1.6819…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on May 14, 2014 at 6:19am — No Comments