EUR is still almost unchanged after yesterday's quick 'tennis' day and currently the ball is still in the neutral position. However the price doesn't feel comfortable ahead of the resistance 1.3775 and it was bounced several times from it. H4 close below 1.3720 will confirm the downside reversal has started with first support to break 1.3670, then 1.3650 and finally 1.3600. To the upside the things seems difficult as 1.3775 stops every attempt of the bulls. First place to sell is close to…Continue
"Major Overnight Headlines…
Added by Daologic on February 25, 2014 at 12:05pm — No Comments
EUR has moved in a 60 pips range and we now have the first sign of a possible reversing of the bullish trend. It is the yesterday's long legged doji candle on Daily - we have a very small body and long shadows. This shows the market is confused and is looking for a direction, that means the bulls are wondering what to do. A Daily close below 1.3690 will confirm the start of reversal. Once below 1.3600 the target will be set at 1.3430 and below. EUR still has the potential for a last jump…Continue
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"The USD is broadly higher on the day, with the GBP the only major currency able to resist the USD’s advance so far. The CAD is a notable under-performer on the session ahead of today’s key data releases. The offshore Chinese yuan has fallen sharply on the day so far, with weakness here spilling over a little into industrial metals. Asian and European equities are mostly positive. US futures are…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 21, 2014 at 12:26pm — No Comments
EUR has dropped from 1.3760 to 1.3685 following the worse economic data, but later through the american session it succeeded to return some of the losses and currently is back above 1.3700 close to the resistance area 1.3720-30. To continue to the upside we need a clear break of 1.3750, but today we have no important data for the eurozone nor for Germany, so we have to rely again on the bad numbers from the USA to make gains. Of course there is a great possibility for the existing home sales…Continue
EUR moved in a 50 pips range yesterday and closed the day below 1.3750, however this morning it has made an upside attempt but it was not successful again. At the moment of writing the price is testing 1.3720 support, if broken downside will continue to 1.3670. If it si broken too then the target will be below 1.3600. On the upside we need a clear break of 1.3770 ,then 1.3800 and finally 1.3850. Today there is a lot of economic data, for now Germany's producer price index numbers are worse.…Continue
"GBP Another big day for UK data, with BoE minutes and…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 19, 2014 at 7:24am — No Comments
EUR continues to move in a narrow range, seems that the mixed Germany's data doesn't influence the pair at all. Again the EUR benefits of the bad US data than any good news from the EU zone. Today is the FOMC will be released later through the american session and until that a consolidation with bullish tone will present. Today we shall test 1.3775 once again and if broken the pair will try to close above 1.3800 and to open the way for testing 1.3830 and 1.3880-95.
GOLD is correcting…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on February 19, 2014 at 6:21am — No Comments
Without any important economic data EUR traded in a narrow range yesterday and this morning too. For today Germany's ZEW will be released, and the data is expected to be mixed to good, later we have the New York Empire Manifacturing index which last time came a lot better than expected, but to beat the previous result will be hard and from the USA we also expect Treasury International Capital flows and the number here is quite possible to be worse too. So for today we have a great…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on February 18, 2014 at 6:17am — No Comments
"EURUSD NEUTRAL Any further recovery will find resistance at 1.3739. A close above this would be a bullish development opening the way to 1.3893. Support is at
1.3562 ahead of 1.3477.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Support is at 100.76 ahead of 99.97. Resistance is at 102.70 ahead of 103.65.
GBPUSD BULLISH Further support developed as the pair advanced sharply and is trading within striking distance of resistance at 1.6878. A break above which would open critical 1.7043. Support is at…
Added by Daologic on February 17, 2014 at 9:38am — No Comments
"The first farewell to guidance This week the Bank of England became the first central bank to say goodbye to forward guidance, but certainly not the last. In its quarterly Inflation Report, the Old Lady turned back to a multivariate approach in assessing future prospects for inflation and hence monetary policy, abandoning the focus on a single indicator of slack in the economy…Continue
Recent consolidation ended last week with a move that emphasised the importance of buying at a 50% pullback point. Increasing demand resulted in the most powerful weekly gains since Jun and with the highest levels since 2009. The speed of the upside means signals are overbought and prone to profit taking but with prices hugging the top of both weekly and daily Keltner channels, and the 13 day avg supportive there is potential for 1.6878 and 1.7043…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on February 17, 2014 at 8:23am — No Comments
An extremely bullish week for the EUR, GOLD and GBP has passed. All of these closed the week almost at the top with no signs of correction. There will be no so important news releases for today and also it is a holiday in the USA so the markets there will remain closed. The important data will be released on Wednesday and it will influence heavily GBP and the EUR. Dollar is expected to remain under pressure at least until Thursday.
GOLD benefits too from the weak dollar and is trying…Continue
JPY: Q4 GDP/BoJ Meeting (Feb 16/18)
The first estimate of Japanese Q4 GDP is likely to show growth rising to +0.80%
from +0.30%. As for policy we do not expect any major adjustment by the BoJ.
AUD: RBA Minutes (Feb 18, 00:30 GMT)
The RBA's February meeting minutes will have less 'new' information than usual,
given the SOMP has detailed their now 'neutral' bias.
Added by Daologic on February 16, 2014 at 9:30am — No Comments
Weak NZ housing data suggests too much rate hikes are priced in over two years, and the NZD should weaken. The GBP is still our preferred long in light of its recent strength of activity and outlook for rates to rise sooner than other majors. USD/JPY is performing more solidly; a rising real yield advantage for USD/JPY suggests it is now cheap. The market may be nervous to sell JPY ahead of Chinese credit data due out over the weekend. A somewhat below…
Added by Daologic on February 14, 2014 at 6:30am — No Comments
EUR has fully recovered after Wednesday's unexpected drop, currently it is moving along the diagonal support line at 1.3675 and is just above it. We have the resistance at 1.3710, we have all chances to test it today, but this will depend on Germany's and eurozone's GDP and Michigan confidence later today. Any good data for the EUR will boost the upside above 1.3700 and we even may reach 1.3750 if we have a bad Michigan confidence number. It is good to keep in mind that today is the end of…Continue
"From the Options Desk
Added by Daologic on February 13, 2014 at 12:14pm — No Comments
It was quite suprising downside move yesterday as noone expected that one guy will make an interview and will talk about things which may or may not become a reality. In fact this was a signal for some big players to make their day as the price went down for more than 50 pips in less than 10 min. But yesterday's drop has made one thing clear enough to see. Take a look on H4 and on H1 - you may see there so clear H&S formation with the 1.3570 neckline H4 closed below will confirm the…Continue
Notwithstanding the jump in GBP post BoE inflation report, we see pressure building for further gains. The market may be reluctant to buy at the top of its recent range, but may be left scrambling if it breaks through. The recent strong UK data and outlook from the BoE suggest it is moving closer to hike than other central banks, albeit trying to keep rate hike expectations in check.…Continue