Current price is testing the uptrend channel, also testing the huge support drawn on daily chart. If this support breaks, we can see more downside towards 1.51, or we can possibly see two possibilities
a) Either we see bounce here, to test median and then fall back to 1.51
b) Or, we will see straight up to 1.546 area.…Continue
Added by FxMind on April 22, 2013 at 8:22am — No Comments
I suspecting, wave 4 is not ended still, as wave 2 was shallow, wave 4 would have deep. Also, as soon as 1.5377 hold good, my earlier count is still valid with very low confidence.
As I suspecting possible new move will have another high for wave 4, and possibly test weekly trend line resistance. This move…Continue
Added by FxMind on April 19, 2013 at 1:30pm — No Comments
A Chart update, possibly fifth wave start. On alternate, we might see another small high above 1.5406, possibly 1.5460. I will keep below is my primary count and tracking this pair.
Any short on this pair, should trailed down stop loss to 1.5377
Added by FxMind on April 17, 2013 at 1:27pm — No Comments
JP Morgan - "The strong overshooting of key-Fib.-resistance at 1.5346 (minor 38.2 %) in Cable has caused a bit of a headache as it is currently unclear whether we are only dealing with an overshooting, internal 4th wave recovery or with a IInd wave on bigger scale. The latter could easily extend to 1.5775-88/1.5812 (200 DMA/int. 61.8 %/ monthly triangle) and possibly to 1.6014 (int. 76.4 %) where good risk rewards would be given to re-enter or to add to core short positions. A renewed break…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 17, 2013 at 8:01am — No Comments
Westpac - "We have run with a positive bias on GBP for some time now, having chosen to hold this via short EUR/GBP. On Feb 26, we recommended selling EUR/GBP on strength, establishing a full short position at an average price of 0.8718. On March 28 we recommend taking back half of that short position at 0.8440.
We have hit our trailing stop (0.8585) on the balance of this position and have now closed it for a 2.36% return to our portfolio.
On April 11 we recommended rolling from…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 17, 2013 at 7:44am — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "An absence of new reasons to add to short GBP positions has continued to see a trimming of speculative positions, most noticeably in GBP/USD. However, the move in GBP/USD also reflects a more cautious USD environment, as the last set of US payroll numbers continue to lead to jitters about the strength of the US recovery and what this may mean for the tapering of the Fed's asset purchases. This is also reflected by the relative stability of EUR/GBP.
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 15, 2013 at 7:41pm — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "The April BoE decision saw GBP/USD trade higher. The official consensus was for no change but the unofficial consensus may have been skewed more towards action after the Chancellor amended the BoE's remit last month. A disappointingly weak US non farm payrolls print also helped to push GBP/USD higher as it calls into question the sustainability of recent improvement in the labour market. It's also possible it will see a pricing out of expectations around the Fed…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 8, 2013 at 1:21pm — No Comments
Based on myshort term idea, I believe, we are still in the wave 4, which is composed of complex correction of w-x-y. wave W, was double zig-zag and reached @ 23.8% retracement. A price moment from 23.8% is not looking impulsive, and then considering the wave X here.
Current price is testing the…Continue
Royal Bank of Scotland - "EUR/GBP continues to look to be the place where GBP has the most potential to outperform. The introduction of capital controls in Cyprus was important. The controls are due to be in place for a week, but in reality could be there for months, or potentially years. The longer they are in place, the greater the damage to financial market confidence and economic activity. The market is going to be on alert for any sign that capital is being moved out of other weaker…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 2, 2013 at 5:10pm — No Comments
Rabobank - "The BoE’s remit has been changed. However, the move was not as aggressive as it could have been insofar as the 2% inflation target remains the central focus of policy. The news that the BoE will have to include forward guidance with respect to its expectations with respect to policy has the fingerprints of soon-to-be Governor Carney all over it. This is reassuring in the sense that it reasserts the independence of the BoE over a government which is desperate to stimulate growth.…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 21, 2013 at 12:20pm — No Comments
ANZ - "• UK budget at best neutral for GBP, but focus on monetary activism implies further, near-term easing in monetary policy.
• Sub-trend economic activity and an absence of wage inflation (real wages are actually falling), suggest that any inflation feedback from the exchange rate will prove temporary. With inflation expectations broadly stable, sterling's weakness should not be an obstacle to further easing.
• The pound has benefitted from the crisis in Europe and a shake out of…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 20, 2013 at 6:02pm — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "The weekend news from Cyprus looks set to dominate market sentiment at the beginning of the week. How EUR/GBP reacts to this news flow will inform on whether GBP weakness this year has been due to a deterioration in UK fundamentals or has been due to an unwinding of safe haven flows. If EUR/GBP can't decline given this weekend's news flow, then UK fundamentals would appear to have dominated. While EUR/GBP may fall if the EUR comes under pressure, we do not expect…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 19, 2013 at 12:14pm — No Comments
Rabobank - "As expected UK CPI inflation has crept higher to 2.8% y/y. Sterling has risen in the wake on the data which technically should give the BoE a little less room to soften monetary policy settings.
(...) Tomorrow’s UK budget may have more significant implications for BoE policy then today’s CPI report. Recent reports that soon-to-be BoE Governor has had talks with Treasury officials have underpinned speculation that the Chancellor could announce a new mandate for the BoE…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 19, 2013 at 10:52am — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "The EUR was up on Friday with some broad-based USD weakness. But it failed to rise above the recent high around 1.314, reaching a high of 1.3107. The chart below identifies 1.314 to 1.317 as significant resistance from trading over the last 7 months. As such, EUR remains essentially in a downtrend since its high on 1 Feb. It is now testing significant resistance around 1.288, and the lower end of a recent declining channel.
(...) GBP rebounded from recent lows…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 18, 2013 at 10:00am — No Comments
Brown Brothers Harriman - "The euro's recent losses have met the minimum objective of the large head and shoulders topping pattern we previously identified (the right shoulder was carved out in the second half of Dec '12, the head was created by the brief move above $1.3700, and the right shoulder was formed in mid-Feb). This, coupled with retracement targets, suggested a test on the $1.2880-$1.2900. The euro neared $1.2900 (~$1.2911 on March 14) before bouncing almost two cents to briefly…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 18, 2013 at 9:45am — No Comments
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 16, 2013 at 4:41pm — No Comments
Societé Generale - "One has the choice between a brutal long USD position across the board or trading relative values, e.g. NOKSEK, AUDNZD or EURGBP. Weighting the decision between this core portfolio allocation in USD and relative positioning is likely to become tricky.
In a lower level of volatility, we typically see a greater dispersion as currencies can be driven by a different motor (interest rate, fx policy, terms of trades…). We are reaching extremes in some of the crosses.…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 14, 2013 at 12:11pm — No Comments
Societé Generale - "(...) now UK economic surprises are at almost their most negative level ever suggesting we are closer to a turning point. Surely Carney will do what must be done to ease so that event is yet to happen. The question is how far we could run to the topside in EURGBP before it peaks. From a valuation point of view, we are unsurprisingly getting to extremes as is typical in a regime break. The models then tend to follow and lag spot. More importantly, we moved to the more…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 13, 2013 at 12:00pm — No Comments
ANZ - "At present, there appear to be few reasons to buy sterling and many reasons to sell it. Whatever the short run dynamics of market positioning are and being wary of chasing currency trends, a retest into a 73.3-75.0 range on the narrow measure of the effective exchange rate is conceivable. That would imply another 5% to 7% depreciation from current levels, taking GBP/USD to the low 1.40s and EUR/GBP into the low 0.90s."…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 12, 2013 at 4:23pm — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "GBP/USD Still the market slides since the important 1.5300 level was broken, 1.5115 and now 1.4907 have been breached too; expect these to morph into resistance levels should the market manage to rally.
The market continues to slide unabated and it seems that none of the important support levels are managing to halt this slide that has accelerated through the big support level at 1.5300. 1.4907 was the 38.2% retracement from the April ’10 rally and below there…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 11, 2013 at 2:44pm — No Comments