EUR has stopped for a while the free fall, but it almost has no chances of any recovery to the upside as we have a strong resistance area built by several resistance lines. This resistance area is between 1.3630 and 1.3660. If we have any recovery into this area please keep in mind that the new downside wave may start at any moment. Upside reversal may happen only on a Daily close above 1.3680. If so, then the negative Daily Ichimoku will be inder attack and the target price will be…Continue
I have given here on 01st July the market prediction - for NFP and ECB press conference market is expected to show USD gaining moves.Also on 30th June and 1st July the players made the upward moves to build sell positions creating a bullish feel to buy later when the traders sell in distress after the drop.
Now the prediction has come true.
We could see more USD gaining moves in coming days.
All the best in your…Continue
Today is the ECB meeting and the central bank will have to decide wheather to implement additional tools to stimulate inflation or not. As the price is above 1.3630 EUR/USD is bullish. First target is 1.3725 and the second one is 1.3780, finally 1.3840-50, where a correction to the downside must appear. Bearish scenario is if 1.3630 is broken, first target will be 1.3590-1.3600 support area, if broken next target will be 1.3510-1.3485. Remember that tomorrow US markets will be closed because…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on July 3, 2014 at 6:16am — No Comments
As expected EUR moved to the upside reaching 1.3700-1.3710 resistance area which bounced back the price on first attempt. This upside recovery may reach some more highs, but i think that by the end of the week we shall have a reversal and drop below 1.3650 again. Currently the price is supported by the 1.3680-1.3670 support area and we are bullish as long as the price is above that support area. My model shows that the upside may even reach 1.3810 on some fundamental news, before the…Continue
EUR is creating some artificial volatility while waiting for the end of the month. Soon the summer holidays will start and the volatility will be low.Everybody is now waiting for the end of the month and the next ECB meeting to see wheather mr.Draghi will implement further stimulus. We remain in an ascending channel despite yesterday's spike to the H4 Senkou Span B price of the positive H4 cloud. Of course it was too early to break it lower and the price quickly reversed, but i think big…Continue
Further fundamental deterioration of EUR vs. USD evident in lower PMI in Europe and stronger PMI in US (high in the Markit series since 2010). Dovish talk from the ECB continues. There will be several Fed speakers this week, they may be less dovish. GBP event risk starts tonight with BoE parliamentary testimony. The risks are for a pull-back in the GBP, but its yield support, trend and solid global risk appetite suggest…Continue
Added by Daologic on June 24, 2014 at 7:06am — No Comments
EUR is continuing consolidation below 1.3600, and yesterday's attempt to break that resistance has failed because of the worse than expected PMI data. Today the IFO data will be released and if it is also worse like yesterday's then the EUR may drop again to 1.3550 or 1.3510. Currently the price is above the H4 negative cloud and going deep below it is not likely. Recovery to the upside will continue once the price is above 1.3600, until that one or several downside tests may appear. Daily…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 24, 2014 at 4:59am — No Comments
A 3rd up week in succession was posted in CABLE last week although the scope of the upside was significantly less than the preceding week.
That was due to profit taking attempts above the psychological level of 1.7000, at the highest levels traded since Oct 2008 and with signals for sentiment at overbought extremes.
But although the…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on June 23, 2014 at 7:51am — No Comments
We would buy USD vs. EUR and JPY even though it feels like a patience trade. As discussed last week, we think the market is underpricing the risk of hikes in the US, whereas policy is likely to generate low rates in the Eurozone and Japan for much longer. The GBP has had a run on higher rate expectations; the risk is that this cools somewhat after the lower-than-expected inflation reported last week and focus on…Continue
Added by Daologic on June 23, 2014 at 7:04am — No Comments
"Speculative positioning registered a few notable changes during the week ended on June 17th, according to the latest Commitments of Traders Report from the CFTC:
Added by Daologic on June 23, 2014 at 4:11am — No Comments
EUR finished the week at 1.3600 support after a quick test of 1.3550-60. The price bounced back to the upside and the pair is now bullish on all time frames. This means the recovery will continue and with the help of good PMI and IFO on Monday and Tuesday for EU and Germany the pair may reach easily 1.3750-1.3820. Breaking of 1.3650 will be the signal for this. Downside may be restored only below 1.3540, but for now we are far from that and expected fundamental data is in favor of the EUR.…Continue
Société Générale's Top 10 forex trade recommendations for the second half of 2014
Here are SocGen's top 10 for the second half of this year. Verbatim.
1- Long USD, NOK and GBP vs CHF, SEK and EUR.
Easy money continues to support risk taking, but the FX carry trade needs to be selective, i.e. avoid trades where valuation is stretched (e.g. risk/reward in NZD/JPY isn't great). This portfolio exploits central bank policy differentiation. An alternative is to be long USD, NOK…
Added by Daologic on June 20, 2014 at 4:05pm — No Comments
"Go With the stronger GBP story: currency markets have not yet had sufficient time to re-price the reality that Bank of England is now very likely to run ahead of the Fed vis-à-vis first monetary tightening. The slightly weaker UK Retail Sales data does not change our view on this. Long Cable and long GBP/SEK."
Added by Daologic on June 19, 2014 at 10:03am — No Comments
EUR has made a shy move to the upside following the FED's decision to keep the interest rate unchanged and to continue with reducing stimulus program. This decision was expected and the market was not surprised, so the dollar lost positions against almost everything. However we lack enough power to break through the important 1.3600 resistance. Once above the price will easily go to 1.3660, but for that we need at least one H4 candle closed well above 1.3600. For now the pair seems uncapable…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 19, 2014 at 5:04am — No Comments
EUR has made a test of 1.3510 yesterday before reversing to the upside and breaking of the 1.3550 took the price to 1.3580-85 as expected. However we are still below the important for further recovery 1.3600 resistance. Breaking of the 1.3600 may take the price to 1.3650-60 quickly, but there a storng resistance is placed and moving futher to the upside will be very hard. But first we need to break above 1.3600, until that we are bearish.
GOLD didn't reached my thirs target from last…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 17, 2014 at 4:59am — No Comments
"There may be better opportunities to short the CAD—versus the JPY amid declining expectations of the need for further BoJ stimulus and safe-haven demand, CADJPY remains blocked below 94.00/10, where the market has been capped for the past month. GBPCAD remains a candidate to improve in the medium-term amid positive BoE rate comments and a still…Continue
Added by Daologic on June 16, 2014 at 11:35am — No Comments
"Stay short EUR/GBP as the EUR under-performs broadly on rate spread moves and GBP finds support from Carney's aggressive intervention in the UK monetary policy debate. Commodity and EM currencies supported by gradual global recovery and pro-cyclical easing by the ECB and to a lesser extent the PBoC. A more hawkish Fed is a risk, so EUR/USD may have more downside. Long NOK/SEK positions vulnerable on the chances of a softer Norges Bank rate profile, but significant NOK falls should be seen…Continue
Added by Daologic on June 16, 2014 at 6:54am — No Comments
EUR failed to reach 1.3600 and to close above so bears took the price back to 1.3520-30 area on last week's close. We are slowly approaching the positive Weekly cloud which is expected to bounce the price to the upside. There are signs of a support formed at 1.3500, but we need to break above 1.3600 resistance to confirm the recovery. There are also some signs of nearby recovey to the upside on Daily and smaller frames, but this is too unreliable as the price is now even below 1.3550.…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 16, 2014 at 4:31am — No Comments
EUR went back above 1.3550 after US data yesterday, but the outlook will remain negative as long as the price is below 1.3600. Possible recovery may extend to 1.3620 or 1.3655, but no more than the last for now. Daily indicators are turning bullish, H4 are already bullish. We are short term bullish while the price is above 1.3550 for a recovery to 1.3600.
GOLD has reached my first target 1268 and almost reached the second 1276 both forecasted yesterday. Now we have support at 1267 and…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 13, 2014 at 5:21am — No Comments
EUR is still above the 1.3530 support and every attempt to break above 1.3550 is not successful. So now we are watching the 1.3530-40 area, break below will increase the downside pressure and first support to come is 1.3500, then 1.3470 and finally 1.3430.Today we have plenty of economic data from EU and USA. EUR is now beraish on all time frames, so it is more likely the downside to continue today.
GOLD is above the support 1254 and the first resistance to battle with is 1268,…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 12, 2014 at 8:02am — No Comments