EURUSD BEARISH With bearish conditions intact, any recovery will be limited to resistance at 1.3579. Support is at 1.3400, a break below this would expose 1.3293.
USDJPY BULLISH Further support developed on Thursday and the pair is trading within striking distance of the resistance at 101.53, a break through which would open 103.74. Support is at 99.57.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL There is an important resistance at 1.6260, a break through which would be positive as it would indicate more upside…
Added by Daologic on November 22, 2013 at 5:41am — No Comments
" There are four main forces that continue to shape the investment climate: Fed tapering, further action by the ECB, Japan’s third arrow, and China’s economic stabilization
- Japan reported a much larger than expected trade deficit
- Bernanke's comments late…
Added by Daologic on November 20, 2013 at 12:06pm — No Comments
"EURUSD BEARISH As long as resistance holds on closing basis at 1.3501, there's scope for resumption of weakness to test the support at 1.3293 and then 1.3166. Only a close above 1.3501 would prolong the recovery to 1.3564.
USDJPY BULLISH The pair extends its strength approaching resistance at 100.61, a break above which would open 101.53. Support is at 99.11 ahead of 97.62.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL The next main resistance is at 1.6260. Support is at 1.5989.
USDCHF BULLISH While support…
"The euro has recorded higher lows for six consecutive sessions It tested the $1.35 in the second half of last week, but did not manage to close about it. This corresponds to a retracement objective of the nearly 5.5 cent decline beginning Oct 25. Assuming this level is convincingly breached, we see scope for the euro to rise 1% next week toward $1.3630. A move below $1.34…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 18, 2013 at 7:47am — No Comments
Although the sequence of 2 down weeks ended last week, it is the weakness of the rally that is assessed as more important. Profit taking demand over the 1st two days of last week took EURGBP to the top of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud, back inside the daily Cloud and above the key 13 day m.a.
But this proved temporary with selling renewed in the last 3 days and only minor net gains posted by the close. This price action leaves sentiment mildly negative and we're looking for a…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on November 18, 2013 at 7:09am — No Comments
Yesterday saw initial downside attract buyers. The resulting improvement kept GBPUSD above the key 13 day moving average but lacked the momentum to sustain levels beyond the Marabuzo line created on Oct 29th. With the highs given up, minor net movement reflects a degree of investor uncertainty but intraday signals indicate scope for the upside failure to deepen with potential for 1.6049 or even 1.6018.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on November 15, 2013 at 7:17am — No Comments
"Dollar strength has extended into the European session, as the retracement after the pre-release of Yellen’s speech yesterday—and the related spike in EUR/USD—continues. The euro, however, is managing to outperform all other G10 currencies, while the market continues to be focused on US events.…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 14, 2013 at 12:05pm — No Comments
"There are two large cross-currents impacting sterling at the moment. Here's our assessment of each and ultimate implications for GBP.
On the positive side, the economy is outperforming even the highest of expectations. There's been little payback to the unusually warm…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 13, 2013 at 10:05am — No Comments
"(...)On balance, we see risk that the dovish October inflation data reported yesterday could have thrown the market off the scent. While it remains the case that the BoE will be in no rush to hike interest rates, we expect that the combination of a wobble in inflation expectations, stronger than expected activity data and the better tone of labour data will allow the Bank to hint that the first rate hike will come a…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 13, 2013 at 10:00am — No Comments
(...)The BoE's Forward Guidance will be important for GBP's reaction to today's events. This will be most obvious in the press conference. Crucial here is the fact that the policy stance in the UK is driving a domestic recovery that's countercyclical to an apparently weak global business cycle. This points to a tightening of monetary conditions, a stronger currency and a deteriorating Balance of Payments position. This is a problem if it's not driven by supply-side reforms and restructuring.…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 13, 2013 at 9:10am — No Comments
"For sterling, it appears that Wednesday's inflation report could only offer surprises to the upside. The ongoing data surge is becoming rather difficult to ignore and any minor hints at an adjustment to forward guidance would be enough to encourage the currency to rebound. Even if the BoE stands still, given the broader direction most other central banks are headed, GBP will likely remain resilient in the short-term. The exception of course remains GBPUSD, where the market appears to be…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 13, 2013 at 6:30am — No Comments
Markets became more active after yesterday’s partial holiday in North America, and more USD gains has been the broad theme that’s been helped along by a number of different factors. From a macro perspective soft inflation data out of Sweden and the UK pressured the SEK and GBP, and the surge in the Nikkei helped lift the dollar…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 12, 2013 at 1:00pm — No Comments
FX: Our US economics team estimates that the fiscal episode will trim growth slightly, but should not have a more direct persistent impact. However, the indirect impact has been USD-negative for FX markets
in helping to push off Fed tapering that much longer. We remain fairly optimistic about the medium-term prospects for the U.S. economy, which we believe will be positive for USD.
Rates: The market has already pushed out tapering expectations and priced in a dovish…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 11, 2013 at 11:37am — No Comments
After the downward moves on Friday,the market appeared gaining levels during early japanese session.Suddenly EURO made the extended downward move below initial low and confused the traders that there could be further sell off.But in 30 min they gained the levels to initial low 1.3480 and stayed there for another 1:30 Hrs and gained above initial low .A perfect example of extended move.This has to be alternate with upward intentional move - so we can predict their moves before…Continue
Added by Dr. Sivaraman on November 4, 2013 at 7:12am — No Comments
"(...)Overall, the acceleration in UK economic growth reinforces the sense that a more sustainable recovery is taking root. 2013 has brought something of a normalisation in the data, in contrast to the previous period between 2011-12 where there were short bursts of growth but expansion was rarely sustained. The Q3 outturn leaves the UK on track for full-year expansion of close to 1½%, still a sub-trend pace but the fastest expansion since 2010 (1.6%) and the first year where all four…Continue
Added by Daologic on October 25, 2013 at 9:55am — No Comments
GBPUSD spiked down to 1.5890 last week but then reversed strongly to the upside, above 1.6120 swing. If we take a look on the latest decline more closely then we can actually count 7 legs down from 1.6260 which is the number of subwaves in corrective retracement. With that said, we suspect that GBPUSD will remain supported and attack 1.6260 high and probably extended up to 1-6300 while 1.5892 holds as a support.
GBPUSD 4h Elliott Wave Analysis…Continue
Added by Gregor Horvat on October 23, 2013 at 3:49am — No Comments
"GBP Today we have the Bank of England decision, which should be non-event. Rates and QE are unanimously expected to remain unchanged, and we don’t expect the BoE to issue a statement.…Continue
Added by Daologic on October 10, 2013 at 10:49am — No Comments
"We expect today’s Bank of England policy meeting to pass without event. The lack of fresh upside in market rates in recent weeks has reduced the pressure on the BoE to explain its policy position while the better tone in UK economic data suggests the voting pattern of September, in which there was no support for additional QE, is likely to be repeated. At 13:00 CET the Bank of England will announce its bank rate and asset purchase target. Barring any significant shock we do not expect the…Continue
Added by Daologic on October 10, 2013 at 8:02am — No Comments
We are expecting more sideways price action in AUDUSD. First test of 0.9485 C=A 100% failed to breach; a possible ABC Flat correction underway.
The uptrend channel is still intact. A breach of 0.9485 fib 100% can extend gain to 1.618 extension towards 0.9550 area. While EUR, GBP are selling off against…Continue
3 weeks of fluctuating price action in EURGBP were followed by a rejection of initial lows and strong buying in the last 5 days. The resulting gains, using a Marabuzo line from January as a platform, created a Bullish Outside Week.
This positive pattern often signals a change in market sentiment and with the daily Keltner channel trending positively now and the 13 day mvg avg exceeded for the first time in a month, we look for demand to continue.
.8532 and towards .8591 are valid…
Added by Alan Collins on October 7, 2013 at 6:32am — No Comments