Wednesday’s rejection of 8 month lows extended yesterday. The strongest performance of this month resulted with a rally that took the cross marginally through the key 13 day moving average that has capped prices throughout September. Despite overbought extremes, intraday signals are also supportive and so we look for this demand to extend.
.8454/65 is the immediate target area. .8481 behind that.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on September 20, 2013 at 6:30am — No Comments
Rabobank - "IMM Net Positioning as at 27 August 2013:
- EUR net longs continued to rise, edging up to a high since May 2011.
- Yet again USD longs fell slightly but they still remain in positive territory. We expect our structurally bullish USD view to be reflected by market positioning going forward.
- JPY shorts increased by more than the prior week’s reduction. USD/JPY continues to flirt with the 100 handle but has not stood north of there since late July.
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 2, 2013 at 11:00am — No Comments
After yesterday week beginning false move we now see the visible gaining moves in EURO and GBP.
More new highs may be seen during this process.
I will explain more about this move tomorrow during my monthly twin webinar " tracking the forex market together " part I and part II.
The link to register are displayed in home page of fxstreet.com .
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi: "The pound may continue to strengthen modestly in the near-term on the back of strengthening UK cyclical momentum. However, those gains are likely to prove limited and remain vulnerable both in the near-term and medium–term. In the near-term those gains could quickly reverse should the BoE choose to strengthen its forward rate guidance. One upcoming key event which poses some downside risk for the pound is on the 28th August when Governor Carney is next scheduled to…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on August 16, 2013 at 4:03pm — No Comments
The market made the big extended stop hunt again before making visible gains.This time the story of USD positive data was used to drop quickly EURO and GBP.later the Gold story is used in the absense of any other data to give a big pull back and further visible gains in EURO and GBP for the week end.
Players are here to continue giving such sentiment change stories to be published by others so that common traders tend to accept the story and book loss or stop…Continue
UBS - "The summer weakness of the dollar has extended further this month. The greenback ended the week around 1.33, 96, 1.55 and 0.92 against the euro, yen, pound and Swiss franc respectively. America's currency has been undermined by stronger data in the Eurozone, UK and China. But its current soft patch also reflects investors reducing positions and seasonally lower volumes in the currency markets. That suggests dollar weakness has been exaggerated. The Treasury market is also signaling…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on August 12, 2013 at 11:53am — No Comments
Good day.Yesterday you might have seen the extended downward stop hunt in GBP - a drop from 1.53 area to 1.52 area and quickly reversed and rise to 1.54 area in a short time frame with in the European session.This indicate the upward shift in trading zone in EURO and GBP.
EURO and GBP are expected to make less dip and more rise moves in coming days to go above all the so called immediate resistances.
Next USD/YEN and USD/CHF are to make sudden upward shift in…Continue
Bank of America Merrill Lynch - "USD: We continue to expect USD to strengthen against G10.
There is a risk that the USD rises past our shorter-term targets. Our year-end target for EUR-USD remains 1.25, and 1.22 for the end of 2014. We also look for USD-JPY to move up to 105 for the end of the year as well. In general, we forecast the USD to strengthen against G10, with risky currencies absorbing further downside.
EUR: We see the euro weakening further as the euro zone is in…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 24, 2013 at 2:23pm — No Comments
Goldman Sachs - "EUR/$: Our positive stance on the EUR is due to the stronger BBoP trend for the Euro area. In contrast to the weaker balance for the US, this structural imbalance implies a gradually weaker USD and a stronger EUR. Downside risk remains in the Euro area, with growth remaining weak and the ECB signaling that it expects to keep rates low, with a downward bias, for ‘an extended period’. However in the longer run – and after more ‘muddling through’ – we expect…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 24, 2013 at 1:55pm — No Comments
Brown Brothers Harriman - "Euro: After recovering from $1.2755 on July 9 to $1.3200 on July 11, the single currency has been consolidating. In that consolidation, it has been carving out what appears to be a flag, which is understood as a continuation pattern. However, we are skeptical of the pattern's validity as it is getting too close to the apex. Nevertheless, the relative strength index and the MACDs are constructive and the 5-day average crossed above the 20-day…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 22, 2013 at 3:03pm — No Comments
Brown Brothers Harriman - "Our longer term bullish dollar outlook has not been impacted by the near-term volatility or the possibility that the Fed's exit strategy is more prolonged than the market had come to anticipate. We have argued that the tapering may begin later than the consensus expected. This view was based on 1) ideas that the economy would stay weak in Q3 and that underlying employment growth was not accelerating; 2) that low core inflation might not be able to be ignored if…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 15, 2013 at 4:29pm — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "We thought the summer would bring significant event risk for GBP crosses and we haven't been disappointed so far. The Bank of England (BoE) and ECB have unveiled a clear dovish bias but last week also saw Bernanke pushing back Fed tightening expectations. While it seems unlikely we'll get back to the abundant liquidity fuelled market rally of earlier in the year, a commitment to ultra loose Fed policy may provide some impetus for risk positive sentiment. GBP/USD has…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 15, 2013 at 2:14pm — No Comments
Rabobank - "Even if UK fundamentals suggest that sterling should be offer some support at current levels another burst of broad-based USD strength would still leave cable vulnerable. Later this week Fed chairman Bernanke will be speaking. He may give the market more reason to be optimistic on the US economic recovery. If this is the case cable will clearly be vulnerable. However, there is also a strong risk that Bernanke may also push back against the view that the tapering of QE is almost…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 9, 2013 at 9:22am — No Comments
UBS - "We have held a negative GBPUSD view for all of 2013, with our key argument being the likelihood of a major monetary policy shift in a dovish direction under the new Carney administration. We reflected this via a short GBPUSD trade recommendation established on 14 Feb (we bought a 6-month 15 Aug expiry 1.4800 strike GBP put / USD call with spot at 1.5500 for 0.9975% of face), arguing that both GBP downside and cable implied volatility were underpriced given the risks involved,…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 5, 2013 at 3:45pm — No Comments
Deutsche Bank - "UK data has been unambiguously strong recently, but we remain bearish GBP. First, similar to the yen, we don't think outright growth matters for a currency, but how it translates into flow. For the UK, the odds are stronger data translate into weaker flow.
(...) Second, we don't think better growth numbers will translate into tighter monetary policy either. It is too early to justify a hawkish turn, with the output gap large and both household and government leverage…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 4, 2013 at 9:56am — No Comments
Societé Generale -
- "Sterling bearishness against both the dollar and euro is now the clearest directional signal from G10 risk reversals.
- Vols are getting more nervous with cable’s down moves, and the EUR/GBP skew has turned sharply to the topside.
- But risk reversals should calm down for now: Carney starts in just a month and we expect the dollar’s upwave to take a pause. In H2 the cable downtrend will resume and propel vols.
- We recommend trading this two-step…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 1, 2013 at 7:10pm — No Comments
Added by Usman Pervez on May 23, 2013 at 10:27pm — No Comments
EU GBP Gold and Oil Forecast 21 May 2013
Good afternoon forex,
Nice to see all seven currencies meet or exceed my expectations today as per my trading plan. Support and resistance lines tracked according to my specs and volatility was equally matched. After reviewing today's price action here's my technical blueprint.
USDCAD: Closed at 1.0239. Resistance now at or near 1.0295. Minor support at or near 1.0218 followed by stronger support at or near 1.0150. BIAS: Mildly bearish. Catalysts: CAD…Continue
Added by The Zedder on May 20, 2013 at 10:30pm — No Comments
UBS - "The dollar remains our favoured currency for 2013. The US economy is likely to expand more than its peers. The Federal Reserve is set to exit uncoventional monetary policy before other major central banks. Dollar diversification by central bank reserve managers and sovereign wealth funds is subdued, and America's shale energy revolution is cutting its current account deficit. Our bullish view on the greenback has become more consensus now. But if the dollar does embark on a multi-year…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 20, 2013 at 5:28pm — No Comments