Good day.Yesterday you might have seen the extended downward stop hunt in GBP - a drop from 1.53 area to 1.52 area and quickly reversed and rise to 1.54 area in a short time frame with in the European session.This indicate the upward shift in trading zone in EURO and GBP.
EURO and GBP are expected to make less dip and more rise moves in coming days to go above all the so called immediate resistances.
Next USD/YEN and USD/CHF are to make sudden upward shift in…Continue
Bank of America Merrill Lynch - "USD: We continue to expect USD to strengthen against G10.
There is a risk that the USD rises past our shorter-term targets. Our year-end target for EUR-USD remains 1.25, and 1.22 for the end of 2014. We also look for USD-JPY to move up to 105 for the end of the year as well. In general, we forecast the USD to strengthen against G10, with risky currencies absorbing further downside.
EUR: We see the euro weakening further as the euro zone is in…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 24, 2013 at 2:23pm — No Comments
Goldman Sachs - "EUR/$: Our positive stance on the EUR is due to the stronger BBoP trend for the Euro area. In contrast to the weaker balance for the US, this structural imbalance implies a gradually weaker USD and a stronger EUR. Downside risk remains in the Euro area, with growth remaining weak and the ECB signaling that it expects to keep rates low, with a downward bias, for ‘an extended period’. However in the longer run – and after more ‘muddling through’ – we expect…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 24, 2013 at 1:55pm — No Comments
Brown Brothers Harriman - "Euro: After recovering from $1.2755 on July 9 to $1.3200 on July 11, the single currency has been consolidating. In that consolidation, it has been carving out what appears to be a flag, which is understood as a continuation pattern. However, we are skeptical of the pattern's validity as it is getting too close to the apex. Nevertheless, the relative strength index and the MACDs are constructive and the 5-day average crossed above the 20-day…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 22, 2013 at 3:03pm — No Comments
Brown Brothers Harriman - "Our longer term bullish dollar outlook has not been impacted by the near-term volatility or the possibility that the Fed's exit strategy is more prolonged than the market had come to anticipate. We have argued that the tapering may begin later than the consensus expected. This view was based on 1) ideas that the economy would stay weak in Q3 and that underlying employment growth was not accelerating; 2) that low core inflation might not be able to be ignored if…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 15, 2013 at 4:29pm — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "We thought the summer would bring significant event risk for GBP crosses and we haven't been disappointed so far. The Bank of England (BoE) and ECB have unveiled a clear dovish bias but last week also saw Bernanke pushing back Fed tightening expectations. While it seems unlikely we'll get back to the abundant liquidity fuelled market rally of earlier in the year, a commitment to ultra loose Fed policy may provide some impetus for risk positive sentiment. GBP/USD has…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 15, 2013 at 2:14pm — No Comments
Rabobank - "Even if UK fundamentals suggest that sterling should be offer some support at current levels another burst of broad-based USD strength would still leave cable vulnerable. Later this week Fed chairman Bernanke will be speaking. He may give the market more reason to be optimistic on the US economic recovery. If this is the case cable will clearly be vulnerable. However, there is also a strong risk that Bernanke may also push back against the view that the tapering of QE is almost…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 9, 2013 at 9:22am — No Comments
UBS - "We have held a negative GBPUSD view for all of 2013, with our key argument being the likelihood of a major monetary policy shift in a dovish direction under the new Carney administration. We reflected this via a short GBPUSD trade recommendation established on 14 Feb (we bought a 6-month 15 Aug expiry 1.4800 strike GBP put / USD call with spot at 1.5500 for 0.9975% of face), arguing that both GBP downside and cable implied volatility were underpriced given the risks involved,…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 5, 2013 at 3:45pm — No Comments
Deutsche Bank - "UK data has been unambiguously strong recently, but we remain bearish GBP. First, similar to the yen, we don't think outright growth matters for a currency, but how it translates into flow. For the UK, the odds are stronger data translate into weaker flow.
(...) Second, we don't think better growth numbers will translate into tighter monetary policy either. It is too early to justify a hawkish turn, with the output gap large and both household and government leverage…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 4, 2013 at 9:56am — No Comments
Societé Generale -
- "Sterling bearishness against both the dollar and euro is now the clearest directional signal from G10 risk reversals.
- Vols are getting more nervous with cable’s down moves, and the EUR/GBP skew has turned sharply to the topside.
- But risk reversals should calm down for now: Carney starts in just a month and we expect the dollar’s upwave to take a pause. In H2 the cable downtrend will resume and propel vols.
- We recommend trading this two-step…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 1, 2013 at 7:10pm — No Comments
Added by Usman Pervez on May 23, 2013 at 10:27pm — No Comments
EU GBP Gold and Oil Forecast 21 May 2013
Good afternoon forex,
Nice to see all seven currencies meet or exceed my expectations today as per my trading plan. Support and resistance lines tracked according to my specs and volatility was equally matched. After reviewing today's price action here's my technical blueprint.
USDCAD: Closed at 1.0239. Resistance now at or near 1.0295. Minor support at or near 1.0218 followed by stronger support at or near 1.0150. BIAS: Mildly bearish. Catalysts: CAD…Continue
Added by The Zedder on May 20, 2013 at 10:30pm — No Comments
UBS - "The dollar remains our favoured currency for 2013. The US economy is likely to expand more than its peers. The Federal Reserve is set to exit uncoventional monetary policy before other major central banks. Dollar diversification by central bank reserve managers and sovereign wealth funds is subdued, and America's shale energy revolution is cutting its current account deficit. Our bullish view on the greenback has become more consensus now. But if the dollar does embark on a multi-year…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 20, 2013 at 5:28pm — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "On the road seeing clients is always most enlightening, always the best way to take the market pulse. But the road can be a tricky place from which to develop detailed strategy ideas – too much distance from day-to-day detail.
So just a few bullets on broader, thematic, directional, conviction: In three words, keep buying Dollars.
(...) Yen is still your number (1) funding currency as Japanese foreign bond buying begins in semi earnest and on the critical…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 20, 2013 at 11:02am — No Comments
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "The pound has outperformed over the last two months with the trade-weighted index increasing by 3.0% from its recent low point recorded on the 12th March. The pound’s recent outperformance followed a period of heavy selling in early 2013 when the trade-weighted index declined by close to 7.0%. Despite the recent corrective rebound, the trade-weighted pound still remains around 3.9% lower than at the end of last year. The pound’s recent upward momentum now appears…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 16, 2013 at 7:13pm — No Comments
ANZ - "Slippage from 1.5600 may seem relatively sharp, but the broader profile remains that of defining a trading range after the slump to 1.4830-50 in March. The 1.5125-1.5225 area ought to hold and provide support for a secondary push towards the 1.5750-75 area."…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 15, 2013 at 10:33am — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "After a string of better data, we expect some weaker UK data to start coming through over the next week or so. More broadly, data surprises appear to be having a diminishing supportive impact on GBP. While data forecasters may have been slow to adjust, there appears a more widespread market view that data will surprise. Investors can't be surprised by a surprise that everyone expects. The second derivative of surprises already looks to be turning over. GBP/USD…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 13, 2013 at 6:30pm — No Comments
Deutsche Bank - "Macro conditions for B/Es have improved somewhat with commodities stabilizing and economic data on balance surprising on the upside again. Just like for the US and the euro area, our B/E momentum score appears to have bottomed, while remaining in negative territory. Some further confirmation of these trends will be needed in the coming weeks.
In the UK, an additional headwind for B/Es has been the renewed strengthening in the exchange rate. A sideways trend in…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 10, 2013 at 3:09pm — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "As a Top Theme and Trade for 2013 we recommended establishing a short GBP/USD position. We hit our initial 1.5050 within three months. We eventually closed the position on 11th April after spot retraced to hit our revised take-profit stop of 1.5390. The relatively poor structural position of the UK, particularly against the US has remained unchanged and hence the strategy remains compelling. We now believe that short-term risk/reward has once again shifted in favour…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 10, 2013 at 9:19am — No Comments