UBS - "The pound, like the yen recently, is undergoing a sharp devaluation against the other major currencies. Late on Friday, Moody's stripped the UK of its AAA rating citing continued weakness in Britain's medium term growth outlook. We remain bearish sterling and expect Cable to trade in a lower 1.40-1.50 range over the next couple of months.
Financial markets are set for a challenging week. (...) This week's key points for currencies are:
- Bernanke to be dovish but Fed hawks…
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 24, 2013 at 9:22am — No Comments
HSBC - "GBP has fallen quite sharply since the beginning of the year, but would seem to have further to go. The currency faces a toxic cocktail of declining fiscal credibility and monetary policy inaction just when market attention is shifting away from the Eurozone crisis and the US fiscal cliff. The fall in GBP so far, although swift, has been relatively modest in historic terms and it remains, if anything, above ‘fair value’ levels. The external accounts are weak and the market is not…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 21, 2013 at 5:00pm — No Comments
Rabobank - "So what does the future hold for GBP now? Clearly it has got off to a bad start in 2013 and it is only natural some are now saying it is oversold – a look at the daily RSI supports this view, although the weekly RSI is not yet in oversold territory. As we noted on Monday, GBP CFTC positioning has plunged into negative territory and net short positioning is at its strongest since June 2012. Although these factors may suggest a pullback could be forthcoming, the age old adage, ‘the…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 20, 2013 at 12:05pm — No Comments
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 18, 2013 at 10:18am — No Comments
UBS - "Sterling is likely to be the next major currency that depreciates strongly. This follows the plunge of the yen over the last few months. As central banks tolerate higher levels of inflation, the pound is set to weaken further across the board particularly against our favourite G4 currency, the US dollar. This week's key points are:
- watch FOMC minutes for signs of Fed easing fatigue
- Italian elections key for euro in the week ahead
- forget G20, Abe's BoJ choice to…
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 16, 2013 at 12:03pm — No Comments
BBH - "Sterling made a new low for the move, to bring its loss against the dollar since January 2 to 5.6%. How much worse can the news get for the sterling? It is not simply the retail sales report. Most of the economic data has disappointed. The economy remains stagnant or worse and fiscal policy remains pro-cyclical. King says more monetary easing can be provided if needed. Hello? Where is the bar? If it is not needed now, under what conditions would it be needed? King welcomed…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 15, 2013 at 1:27pm — No Comments
UBS - "GBPUSD BEARISH Downward bias remains with the focus on 1.5694, ahead of 1.5394. The pair will find resistance at 1.5892.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Yesterday's session saw the pair test key support at 0.9197, a break below this would expose 0.9111. Resistance is at 0.9389.
USDCAD BULLISH Yesterday the pair broke below the support at 1.0021, ahead of 0.9904. But as the MACD stay above the zero line any losses are limited, with the significant resistance at 1.0136."
Added by Francesc Riverola on January 30, 2013 at 9:43am — No Comments
Societe Generale - "In the week ending Jan 15, the speculative community bought dollars and yen, sold Euros, according to CFTC data. The way EUR/USD has traded does suggest that positioning is gyrating pointlessly, with outright exposure fluctuating around zero. Economic weakness and a less dovish tone from the ECB, accompanied by a correction at the front end of the European bond markets, rather balance each other out, though we still expect the Euro to be stronger near term, and weaker…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on January 21, 2013 at 9:50am — No Comments
UBS - "This week's key points for currencies are:
- dollar bears note FOMC has hawks as well as doves
- euro supported for now on global risk sentiment
- USDJPY still a buy on dips into January's BoJ meeting
- UK CPI, retail sales key in the week ahead for sterling
- EURCHF plays catch up at last with euro crosses
- expect NOKSEK to be bid as Swedish data stays mixed
- watch Australia's employment data in the week ahead"
Mansoor Mohi-uddin, Managing…
Deutsche Bank - "The pound's greatest flow strength could turn out to be its greatest weakness though. In contrast to Switzerland's steady inflow, the UK saw a 350bn GBP collapse in short-term flows in the first few years of the crisis, only to subsequently rebound as Eurozone tail risks picked up (chart 2). This could reflect outright inflows or liquidation of UK assets and hoarding in cash. We think this pattern puts sterling at major risk this year. First, we doubt this pace of…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on January 11, 2013 at 4:33pm — No Comments
The Euro is seen to gain opposite the British pound today as the European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates on hold at a record low 0.75 percent as the Euro Zone economy shows some positive signs of stabilization and inflation remains above target. In contrast, disappointing trade figures from the UK are deemed to suggest that trade activity became a drag on the British economy in the fourth quarter.
Convening for the first time this year, the ECB is likely to leave…
Added by Aviv Shapiro on January 10, 2013 at 6:28am — No Comments
Yesterday we have seen week beginning false move on the downside and then rise from European session onwards.
Today more gaining moves may be seen.
I have explained in detail the expected market moves during this week during my webinar time.
The recording of the webinar is available in the given below link:
Added by Dr. Sivaraman on January 8, 2013 at 8:16am — No Comments
UBS - "This week's key points are:
- Fed doves unlikely to weaken the dollar now
- ECB meeting key for euro in the week ahead
- BoJ to agree higher inflation target this month
- MPC meeting unlikely to provide direction to sterling
- upcoming Swiss CPI data focus for franc
- follow Riksbank minutes in the week ahead"
Mansoor Mohi-uddin, Managing Director and Head of Foreign Exchange Strategy at UBS Macro Research
Added by Francesc Riverola on January 7, 2013 at 2:16pm — No Comments
BBH - "Yen: The JPY88.80 area is the next immediate dollar target. As the JPY90 area is approached, it may be increasingly important to watch how the yen performs in Asia and whether Japanese corporates try to lock in profits or hedges. Buying dollars on modest dips is likely to be the preferred strategy of the trend following and momentum traders. We anticipate pullbacks to be limited to the JPY86.80-JPY87.30 range.
Sterling: The recovery before the…
Added by Francesc Riverola on January 7, 2013 at 1:50pm — No Comments
The British pound is deemed to strengthen alongside the Euro today as a gauge of UK manufacturing unexpectedly expanded in December, suggesting renewed strength in the economy at the end of 2012. In contrast, the Euro is apt to dip as a similar factory report for the Euro Zone contracted more than expected and as labor reports due today are estimated to come in weak.
In a report that largely boosted the outlook for the UK economy, British manufacturing expanded at its fastest pace…
Added by Aviv Shapiro on January 3, 2013 at 6:42am — No Comments
I have explained today during my webinar the expected market moves for this week.
The link for the video is given below:
The market is expected to be very qyuick and aggressive till mid January.Extended moves could be seen to attract margin calls…Continue
Added by Dr. Sivaraman on December 31, 2012 at 10:53am — No Comments
We are now seeing slow and steady upward move - this is the process of upward shift in trading zone.EURO/USD,GBP/USD,USD/YEN are making contrarian moves to make upward moves in YEN crosses - soon we may see people talking about carry trade in different name.
USD/CAD and AUD are not participating.USD/CHF is expected to rise again similar to USD/YEN after this quick downward move.
All majors we can buy during small dips and they are expected to rise and rise with small…Continue
Added by Dr. Sivaraman on December 19, 2012 at 12:46pm — No Comments
UBS - "GBPUSD BULLISH The pair continues to extend its strength and is currently testing resistance at 1.6217. The next critical resistance is at 1.6309. Support lies at 1.6153.
USDCHF BEARISH Bearish trend conditions persist. A break below first support at 0.9115 would signal extension of weakness to 0.9041. Resistance is at 0.9240."
Added by Francesc Riverola on December 18, 2012 at 11:05am — No Comments
I have explained the expected market moves for this week 17-21 December and also what could happen during year end in my webinar given today.
You can get the video of the same by clicking the given below link:
As I have some other works to focus on I will…Continue
Added by Dr. Sivaraman on December 17, 2012 at 12:27pm — No Comments
UBS - "(...) The Fed's new policies are likely to keep the dollar constrained as the new year starts but will support the currency in 2013 as the US economy keeps recovering. That means the greenback is likely to stay at current levels of 1.30-1.32 against the euro for now but recover back to 1.15-1.20 next year.
(...) In our last comment here for 2012, the key points for currencies are:
- new Fed policies tempering dollar for now, to bolster it later
- ECB watchers should…
Added by Francesc Riverola on December 16, 2012 at 12:00pm — No Comments