Royal Bank of Scotland - "While we believe that GBP fundamentals have deteriorated further, and this will keep the pressure on GBP/USD, we do expect a kicker from a stronger USD tone from concerns over Italy. This may mean that EUR/GBP falls at the same time as GBP/USD falls. The USD part has led us to lower our assumed profile for GBP/USD. We now see GBP/USD moving into a 1.45-1.55 range, with risks skewed to the downside."
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 4, 2013 at 6:55pm — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH A closing break below 1.2998 would be an important bearish development, exposing 1.2877. Resistance is at 1.3162.
USDJPY BULLISH The recent strength reinforces the broader bullish theme and focus is on resistance at 94.77, a break above this would open 97.79. Support is at 92.01.
GBPUSD BEARISH Bearish trend conditions persist. The support focus is at 1.4949, a break below would expose 1.4687. Resistance is at 1.5104 ahead of 1.5222."
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 4, 2013 at 10:30am — No Comments
Recommendations: SHORT positions below 1.5220 with 1.5000 & 1.4900 as next targets.
Alternative scenario: The upside breakout of 1.5220 will call for a rebound to 1.5320/460.
Description: The GBPUSD continued its bearish momentum last week, and broke below 1.5000 levels,this scenario suggests more downside loses, so far I don't see any sign of bottoming , from the 15 min till the daily chart, the…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 3, 2013 at 12:57pm — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY BULLISH Bullish trend conditions are in place and a break above resistance at 93.28 would extend the strength to 94.77. Support is at 90.62.
GBPUSD BEARISH Bearish trend conditions persist and any upside must be limited. Resistance is at 1.5321 which should hold. Support is at 1.5073 ahead of 1.4949.
AUDUSD BEARISH Support is at 1.0149 ahead of 1.0103. Any upside should be limited, with strong resistance area at 1.0343 and 1.0375.
USDCAD BULLISH The pair posted a…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 1, 2013 at 8:41am — No Comments
Societé Generale - "Good Morning. I want to be short AUD/USD, GBP/USD, and why not have a fling with some long CAD/JPY for a 'risk-on' bounce in honour of the great and might Ben Bernanke. A hyper-defensive EM strategy approach seems wise given risks and valuations, and in honour of the awfulness of the Transatlantic economic divide, a day's pause in the Tsy/Bund spread may be replaced by fresh widening imminently... …Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 27, 2013 at 9:03am — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY BULLISH The latest setback does not change the bullish picture. Support is at 90.62 ahead of 88.78. Resistance is at 93.28 ahead of 94.77.
GBPUSD BEARISH Bearish trend conditions persist and any upside must be limited. Resistance is at 1.5219 ahead of 1.5321. Support is at 1.5073 ahead of 1.4949.
USDCHF NEUTRAL There is a strong resistance at 0.9389 - which is the 'last significant high' of the bear trend, a closing break above would be positive. Support is at…
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 27, 2013 at 8:52am — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "The outlook for the GBP remains weak after a dovish speech by BoE’s Fisher and as BoE members in testimony reiterated the views discussed in the recent MPC meeting that they were prepared to take further measures to spur growth. The UK press reports that Deputy Governor Tucker discussed the possibility of charging banks for leaving cash on deposit at the central bank, which appears to mean targeting negative cash rates.
GBP continues to trade below a key…
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 27, 2013 at 8:36am — No Comments
JP Morgan - "The GBP/USD forecast profile has been changed to 1.50 for Q1, 1.47 for Q2, and 1.51 for Q3 and Q4. We would stress that it is sentiment that has turned rather than fundamentals – these were always negative even as GBP appreciated throughout the euro crisis. We expect further downward pressure on GBP, particularly as uncertainty around monetary and fiscal policy intensifies around the budget (March 20) and the change of BoE governor (July 1).
(...) The strong reversal right…
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 26, 2013 at 4:59pm — No Comments
HSBC - "The UK has lost its AAA rating for the first time in its history, following the one notch downgrade by Moody's overnight. The implications for GBP are negative, the more pronounced impact likely to be evident when Asian markets reopen on Monday. We have previously highlighted the downgrade danger as one of the factors behind our bearish stance on GBP. We retain our 2013 year-end forecasts of 1.48 on GBP-USD and 0.91 on EUR-GBP.
(...) We started the year as one of the most bearish…
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 26, 2013 at 12:15pm — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "GBP/USD A very important last week as the important support at 1.5300 is broken and fails to hold price action on a weekly close basis. This is significant and opens up further downside levels. My support level at 1.5300 failed to hold up price action; the level was convincingly broken and last week was the first weekly close below 1.5300 since July ’10! This changes the medium term picture quite dramatically and also now creates a ceiling at 1.5300 on the basis of…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 25, 2013 at 5:45pm — No Comments
National Australia Bank - "Key trade ideas: 1. With EUR/GBP upside partially constrained by EUR/USD, GBP bears need to play via USD. We see 1.46 by end Q1.
2. We are not on board with the RBA's evident growth optimism, while our ‘fair value’ estimate for the AUD/USD has plunged more than 2 cents to below parity in the past week (the fall in gold a key driver). We would use any recovery back to the 1.0330 area to get short targeting 1.01 during March.
3. We remain constructive on…
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 25, 2013 at 11:51am — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "GBP was hit close to the end of last week with a Moodys downgrade from Aaa to Aa1. Even though hardly a surprise, the GBP remains weaker in early Asia trading. The key to sentiment this week will be how it trades through the open in European hours.
GBP/USD is trading below a region of previous support around 1.5230/1.5350 made over 2010/12. It closed below this region last week, dropping sharply on the Moodys announcement right near the end of the week's…
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 25, 2013 at 10:11am — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD NEUTRAL A closing break below 1.3187 would be a bearish development; exposing 1.3063 ahead of 1.2998. Resistance is at 1.3291 ahead of 1.3434.
USDJPY BULLISH The pair extends the bullish pattern of higher highs and higher lows. The next main resistance is at 97.79. Support is at 92.77.
GBPUSD BEARISH Bearish trend conditions persist. There is little support until the major point at 1.4949. Resistance is at 1.5321."
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 25, 2013 at 9:58am — No Comments
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "We believe the dynamics in the foreign exchange market are changing. After a sustained period of risk-on/risk-off trading dictating foreign exchange movements the market looks to be shifting back to more specific fundamental factors as a driver of foreign exchange. USD/JPY, GBP/USD and USD/ZAR are examples of currency pairs now being driven by specific factors. Speculative pound positioning indicates there is still ample scope for further selling. IMM data as of…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 22, 2013 at 9:19am — No Comments
Societé Generale - "The SG Sentiment indicator is deep in risk averse territory, and the FX positioning indicator consequently dollar positive, recommending dollar longs against all G10 currencies except NZD and SEK, and most of the EMFX space as well (notably MXN, KRW TRY, HUF and PLN). We are long USD against AUD, JPY and GBP, and long EUR/NZD (much less comfortably than we were).
The sentiment Indicator seems to me too bearish, and this still looks like a mild risk correction rather…
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 22, 2013 at 8:49am — No Comments
HSBC - "GBP has fallen quite sharply since the beginning of the year, but would seem to have further to go. The currency faces a toxic cocktail of declining fiscal credibility and monetary policy inaction just when market attention is shifting away from the Eurozone crisis and the US fiscal cliff. The fall in GBP so far, although swift, has been relatively modest in historic terms and it remains, if anything, above ‘fair value’ levels. The external accounts are weak and the market is not…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 21, 2013 at 5:00pm — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "In contrast to the effective tightening in the US, the BoE minutes generated an effective policy easing in the UK. In response the GBP has naturally fallen. But it is more than that. The shift in tone by the BoE is worse for the GBP because its shift towards countenancing more QE or perhaps a cash rate cut comes not because it is undershooting inflation. It comes entirely because it is undershooting on its desire for growth. And worse still it is forecasting…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 21, 2013 at 12:32pm — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY BULLISH Bullish trend conditions persist. Resistance is at 94.46, a break above would open 97.79. Strong support is at 92.17.
GBPUSD BEARISH The aggressive sell-off yesterday stalled just above the major retracement support at 1.5193. A break below would open 1.5125. Resistance is at 1.5322.
AUDUSD BEARISH Resistance is at 1.0375. Significantly, the pair came under pressure from this point and focus is on 1.0227, a break below this would expose 1.0149."
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 21, 2013 at 10:40am — No Comments
Societé Generale - "We are short GBP/USD and bearish. We are also short AUD, which still fails to benefit from 'risk on' days and suffers as soon as equity markets fall back. We're staying short CHF and JPY but not expecting much movement near term."
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 21, 2013 at 10:34am — No Comments