UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH Any upside should be limited in time and extent, with resistance at 1.2900 and 1.2935. Support is at 1.2751, a break below would expose 1.2662.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Resistance is at 93.69 ahead of 94.38. Support is at 92.57, a breach of which would extend correction to 90.88.
GBPUSD BEARISH Strong resistance is at 1.5269. While this holds, watch for a break under 1.5027 and extend weakness to 1.4832.
USDCHF BULLISH While support at 0.9429 holds, there is…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 4, 2013 at 9:52am — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "EUR/GBP continues to look to be the place where GBP has the most potential to outperform. The introduction of capital controls in Cyprus was important. The controls are due to be in place for a week, but in reality could be there for months, or potentially years. The longer they are in place, the greater the damage to financial market confidence and economic activity. The market is going to be on alert for any sign that capital is being moved out of other weaker…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 2, 2013 at 5:10pm — No Comments
Recommendations: SHORT positions below 1.5175 with 1.5090 & 1.5025 as next targets.
Alternative scenario: The upside breakout of 1.5175 will call for a rebound to 1.5235/320.
Description: The pair trades below its resistance at 1.5175, below this level look for further downside losses towards 1.5090 & 1.5025 levels, a break above 1.5175 - an hourly close is better - will reverse risks to the…
Brown Brothers Harriman - "We had been monitoring what appeared to be a head and shoulders bottom for sterling. It reached $1.5270 and reversed, dropping almost 2 cents before bottoming, and returning to the neck line of the pattern near $1.5200. It is not uncommon for the a retest of a neck line in a head and shoulders pattern, though this time it was rather deep. Even though the price action was disappointing, a number of technical indicators suggest it may be premature to abandon the idea…Continue
Societé Generale - "Hello Q2. Q1s best currency was the Mexican peso, ahead of the Thai Baht, the Icelandic Krona, the Brazilian real and the pick of G10, the NZD. An eclectic bunch, for sure, and you have to stretch to find a common theme, but 'US dollars on steroids' is as close as I can come. Q1's worst currencies were the rand, the yen, HUF, GBP and PLN. Budapest and London could be lovely for value-hunting tourists if we ever actually get round to 'Spring'. The common thread, yen…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 1, 2013 at 8:42am — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH As bearish trend conditions persist, there is scope for extension of weakness to test strong support at 1.2662. Resistance is at 1.2900.
USDJPY BULLISH While the support at 93.11 holds, the risk for resumption of upside. Initial resistance is at 95.12, a break above would open 96.71.
GBPUSD BEARISH The broader bear trend is intact and support is at 1.5093, a break below would trigger deeper sell-off to 1.5027. Resistance is at 1.5269."
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 1, 2013 at 8:00am — No Comments
The GBPUSD maintained some bullish momentum the past few weeks, pressure now will be on the key resistance 1.5500, the GBPUSD will have to hold above 1.5500 on a weekly closing basis to confirm bottoming at 1.4830 and change medium term outlook from bearish to neutral, If seen pressure will be on the key resistance 1.5840 , where a breach will turn focus on the 1.6000 levels.
Alternatively, a failure to hold above 1.5500 on a weekly closing basis, could mean a return to the 1.4830…Continue
UBS - "USDJPY BULLISH There is a major support at 93.11. While this holds, there is potential for resuming upside. Initial resistance is at 95.12, a break above would open 96.71.
GBPUSD BEARISH The broader bear trend is intact and support focus is at 1.5027, a break below would trigger deeper sell-off to 1.4832. Resistance is at 1.5207 ahead of 1.5269.
USDCHF BULLISH With trending and momentum indicators pointing higher, there is scope for further upside to resistance at 0.9567…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 28, 2013 at 1:00pm — No Comments
After the worst two months to begin a year since 1982, the GBP/USD has finally seen a bit of a bounce over the latter half of March. The unit has retraced back to strong previous support at 1.5260, a level that had put a reliable floor under rates for nearly three years; now this area is likely to put a ceiling on rates as bears who missed the initial breakdown eagerly seize the second chance to sell at this key level.
From a price…Continue
Added by Abdul Rehman on March 26, 2013 at 6:53pm — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH The latest strength does not change the bearish picture and there is a strong resistance at 1.3107. Support is at 1.2844 ahead of 1.2662.
USDJPY BULLISH There is a strong support at 93.57/11. While these hold, there is scope for resumption of strength. Resistance is at 96.71 ahead of 97.79.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.5321 ahead of 1.5424 - which should hold any upside. Support is at 1.5166 ahead of 1.5027."
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 25, 2013 at 9:49am — No Comments
The GBPUSD continued its bullish correction last week topped at 1.5259. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.5300/50. Immediate support is seen around 1.5200. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.5150 or lower. Overall I still prefer a bearish scenario but would need a clear break at least back below 1.5100 to keep the bearish scenario remains strong.…Continue
Added by Abdul Rehman on March 25, 2013 at 7:12am — No Comments
Rabobank - "The BoE’s remit has been changed. However, the move was not as aggressive as it could have been insofar as the 2% inflation target remains the central focus of policy. The news that the BoE will have to include forward guidance with respect to its expectations with respect to policy has the fingerprints of soon-to-be Governor Carney all over it. This is reassuring in the sense that it reasserts the independence of the BoE over a government which is desperate to stimulate growth.…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 21, 2013 at 12:20pm — No Comments
ANZ - "• UK budget at best neutral for GBP, but focus on monetary activism implies further, near-term easing in monetary policy.
• Sub-trend economic activity and an absence of wage inflation (real wages are actually falling), suggest that any inflation feedback from the exchange rate will prove temporary. With inflation expectations broadly stable, sterling's weakness should not be an obstacle to further easing.
• The pound has benefitted from the crisis in Europe and a shake out of…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 20, 2013 at 6:02pm — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "The weekend news from Cyprus looks set to dominate market sentiment at the beginning of the week. How EUR/GBP reacts to this news flow will inform on whether GBP weakness this year has been due to a deterioration in UK fundamentals or has been due to an unwinding of safe haven flows. If EUR/GBP can't decline given this weekend's news flow, then UK fundamentals would appear to have dominated. While EUR/GBP may fall if the EUR comes under pressure, we do not expect…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 19, 2013 at 12:14pm — No Comments
Rabobank - "As expected UK CPI inflation has crept higher to 2.8% y/y. Sterling has risen in the wake on the data which technically should give the BoE a little less room to soften monetary policy settings.
(...) Tomorrow’s UK budget may have more significant implications for BoE policy then today’s CPI report. Recent reports that soon-to-be BoE Governor has had talks with Treasury officials have underpinned speculation that the Chancellor could announce a new mandate for the BoE…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 19, 2013 at 10:52am — No Comments
Recommendations: LONG positions above 1.5055 with 1.5110 & 1.5180 as next targets.
Alternative scenario: The downside breakout of 1.5055 will open the way to 1.5010/1.4935.
Description: As long as the key support 1.5055 holds, look for further upside gains towards 1.5200 levels,a break below this level will reverse risks to the downside and open the way to 1.5010/1.4935…
Societé Generale - "Following the Cyprus rescue package, EURUSD gapped lower but failed to take out the key support at 1.2880 (82 was the low) and has since retraced a bit. Longer term money is yet to react fully suggesting a sell on rally strategy remains appropriate. They will likely wait for the decision of the Cyprus parliament.
Initial reports were that it was set for for 10am EDT. With questionable odds it will pass, it seems we are seeing some back door negotiation between Cyprus…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 18, 2013 at 11:36am — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "The EUR was up on Friday with some broad-based USD weakness. But it failed to rise above the recent high around 1.314, reaching a high of 1.3107. The chart below identifies 1.314 to 1.317 as significant resistance from trading over the last 7 months. As such, EUR remains essentially in a downtrend since its high on 1 Feb. It is now testing significant resistance around 1.288, and the lower end of a recent declining channel.
(...) GBP rebounded from recent lows…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 18, 2013 at 10:00am — No Comments
Brown Brothers Harriman - "The euro's recent losses have met the minimum objective of the large head and shoulders topping pattern we previously identified (the right shoulder was carved out in the second half of Dec '12, the head was created by the brief move above $1.3700, and the right shoulder was formed in mid-Feb). This, coupled with retracement targets, suggested a test on the $1.2880-$1.2900. The euro neared $1.2900 (~$1.2911 on March 14) before bouncing almost two cents to briefly…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 18, 2013 at 9:45am — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH The pair posted a new low and is currently trading just above support at 1.2876. A break below would expose 1.2662. Resistance is at 1.2998 ahead of 1.3107.
USDJPY BULLISH The latest weakness is held by the main support at 93.11. While this holds on closing basis, there is scope for resumption of upside. Resistance is at 96.71.
GBPUSD BEARISH The recent recovery does not change the broader bearish picture. Important resistance is at 1.5199. Support is at…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 18, 2013 at 9:00am — No Comments