UBS - "We have held a negative GBPUSD view for all of 2013, with our key argument being the likelihood of a major monetary policy shift in a dovish direction under the new Carney administration. We reflected this via a short GBPUSD trade recommendation established on 14 Feb (we bought a 6-month 15 Aug expiry 1.4800 strike GBP put / USD call with spot at 1.5500 for 0.9975% of face), arguing that both GBP downside and cable implied volatility were underpriced given the risks involved,…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 5, 2013 at 3:45pm — No Comments
BMO Capital Markets - "Major central banks are adjusting their overall policy stances in relation to the prospects for Fed QE tapering. As a result, they are aiming to anchor their short-term and long-term rates. Effectively, this strategy is developing into a de-facto interest rate spread cap versus USD rates. There will therefore be less room for appreciation of these currencies relative to the USD in the weeks ahead regardless of their economic dataflow, leaving USD/JPY, GBP/USD and…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 5, 2013 at 10:36am — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH With the bear trend intact focus is on the key support at 1.2797. A break below this would suggest scope for further downside. Resistance is at 1.3078.
USDJPY BULLISH Our focus is on the key resistance at 103.74. Downside should be limited with support at 98.16.
GBPUSD BEARISH The pair closed below the key support at 1.5183. This was a strong bearish development, exposing 1.5009. Resistance is at 1.5279.
USDCHF BULLISH Any recovery should be limited with a…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 4, 2013 at 10:23am — No Comments
Deutsche Bank - "UK data has been unambiguously strong recently, but we remain bearish GBP. First, similar to the yen, we don't think outright growth matters for a currency, but how it translates into flow. For the UK, the odds are stronger data translate into weaker flow.
(...) Second, we don't think better growth numbers will translate into tighter monetary policy either. It is too early to justify a hawkish turn, with the output gap large and both household and government leverage…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 4, 2013 at 9:56am — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH With the MACD below its zero line, potential is for further downside. Immediate support is at 1.2985 ahead of 1.2797. Resistance is at 1.3150.
USDJPY NEUTRAL The pair is trading just below the strong resistance at 99.94. A closing break above this would be positive, opening 103.74. Support is at 99.18 ahead of 96.82.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Weakness is held by the key support at 1.5183, which was tested on Friday. A closing break below this would a strong bearish…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 2, 2013 at 11:43am — No Comments
ANZ - "As USD/JPY continues towards the secondary squeeze target of 100.00, the biggest concern is that this is not merely a sharp corrective squeeze, but could be an early resumption of JPY weakness and a push towards 105.00-106.00. Either way, dips should now be seen as a buying opportunity.
A dip below 99.10 could trigger some near term pullbacks to the 96.65-97.50 area (a buying opportunity) with stops raised to 96.00.
GBPUSD Although the…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 2, 2013 at 10:20am — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BULLISH The pair posted a new high and is approaching the resistance at 1.3520 ahead of 1.3711. Support is at 1.3319.
USDJPY BEARISH The weakness since mid-May is approaching the significant support at 93.57. A closing break below this would be further negative opening 90.43. Resistance is at 96.10.
GBPUSD BULLISH As the bull trend persists any downside will be limited with a strong support at 1.5468. Broader focus is on the strong resistance at 1.5789; a closing…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 19, 2013 at 7:28am — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BULLISH With the MACD above its zero line, the potential is for further upside. Resistance is at 1.3390 ahead of 1.3520. Support is at 1.3266
USDJPY BEARISH The weakness since mid–May is approaching the significant support at 93.57. A closing break below this would be further negative opening 90.43. Resistance is at 96.10.
GBPUSD BULLISH There is a strong resistance at 1.5789. A closing break above this would be further positive opening 1.5879. Support is at…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 17, 2013 at 11:05am — No Comments
The GBPUSD continued to maintain its bullish momentum last week, topped at 1.5737, and closed at 1.5703.
With the break of 1.5683 levels, next resistance would be 1.5900, stability above 1.5900 on a weekly closing basis will open the way towards 1.6200 levels.
On the downside , support is at 1.5630 ahead of 1.5487, as long as the pair trades above those levels, it’s likely to return to its upside bais with risk towards 1.5800/900 levels, losing 1.5487 will turn…
The GBPUSD continued to maintain its bullish momentum after breaking above 1.5630/1.5687 levels, next resistance is at 1.5803 ahead of 1.5878, stability above 1.5878 on a daily closing basis will have large bullish implication, and sooner or later the pair will target 1.6060 ahead of 1.6250.
On the downside, note that rejection from 1.5803/1.5878 levels is suggested , support is at 1.5630, a daily close below this level would weaken the current bullish run and pave the way towards…Continue
Added by Haitham653 on June 13, 2013 at 8:49pm — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY BEARISH Upside will be viewed as corrective and unwinding the overextended downside conditions. Resistance is at 99.36 ahead of 100.40. Support is at 94.99 ahead of 93.57.
EURUSD BULLISH There is a strong resistance at 1.3342. A closing break above which would be positive over the longer term, opening 1.3520. Support is at 1.3112 ahead of 1.3052.
GBPUSD BULLISH As bullish conditions persist, a break above 1.5684 would open the way to test the main resistance at 1.5789.…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 10, 2013 at 9:13am — No Comments
The GBPUSD maintained a bullish momentum last week after topping at 1.5683, now pressure will be on the key resistance 1.5683. The GBPUSD will have to hold above the 1.5683 levels on a weekly closing basis to push the market for further upside gains,If seen ; expect the market to strengthen further towards the 1.5915 levels ahead of the 1.6215 levels, where a breach will turn focus on the 1.6540 levels.
On the downside, support is at 1.5191 ahead of the 1.5007 levels, then…Continue
Added by Haitham653 on June 8, 2013 at 10:13pm — No Comments
Rabobank - "The June Bank of England policy meeting was never likely to be a game changer for sterling. That said, the UK economy has entered into an interesting phase. Finally there are sufficient signs of improvement in data releases to indicate that the country may be entering into a nascent economic recovery. The slightly better tone of economic data will be a relief to Governor King who retires at the end of the month after a difficult tenure. However, King has still left plenty of work…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 7, 2013 at 5:51pm — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY BEARISH Any upside will be limited in time and extent, as the broader focus is for a break below support at 97.31, extending weakness to 95.79. Resistance is at 100.73 and 101.31.
EURUSD NEUTRAL The latest strength suggests there is potential for extension to test the resistance at 1.3194 and then 1.3243. Support is at 1.2934 ahead of 1.2797.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL The recent advance found resistance at 1.5378. A closing break above which would be positive, signalling scope for…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 4, 2013 at 8:51am — No Comments
Societé Generale -
- "Sterling bearishness against both the dollar and euro is now the clearest directional signal from G10 risk reversals.
- Vols are getting more nervous with cable’s down moves, and the EUR/GBP skew has turned sharply to the topside.
- But risk reversals should calm down for now: Carney starts in just a month and we expect the dollar’s upwave to take a pause. In H2 the cable downtrend will resume and propel vols.
- We recommend trading this two-step…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 1, 2013 at 7:10pm — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY BULLISH The latest setback found support at 100.38. A move below which would extend the correction to 99.58. Resistance is at 102.59, a break above would open 103.74 ahead of 105.60.
GBPUSD BEARISH Initial support is at 1.5014, a break below this would extend weakness to test the critical 1.4832. Resistance is at 1.5174 ahead of 1.5240.
USDCHF BULLISH The recent weakness does not change the broader bullish picture and major support is at 0.9543. Resistance is at…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 27, 2013 at 8:30am — No Comments
Societé Generale - "Good Morning. Buy the dollar, sell EMFX and sell carry. It isn't about when the Fed “tapers”, it's about too many positions on the same side of the boat and the danger of a capsize.
When the Fed will slow its Treasury purchases will be data-dependent and the Funds rate may be less important in policy-making going forwards. Those are the direct takeaways from the FOMC minutes but the market tells us something different. The prospect of low rates for a long time…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 23, 2013 at 10:04am — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY BULLISH With the broader bull trend in place, the next major resistance focus is at 105.60. Support is at 101.26.
EURUSD BEARISH Any upside will be limited as bearish conditions persist. Resistance is at 1.2967 and 1.3020. Support is at 1.2797, a break below would expose 1.2746 ahead of the critical 1.2662.
The pair sold off sharply to test support at 1.5128 yesterday.
GBPUSD BEARISH There is scope for more downside in the near-term. Next support is at 1.5034 ahead…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 22, 2013 at 2:20pm — No Comments
Brown Brothers Harriman - "Euro: A large head and shoulders pattern is being carved out. The neckline is seen near the late March and early April lows around $1.2740. Below there is the low from last November near $1.2660, which is just below the $1.2680 retracement objective ($1.2680) of Draghi's OMT induced rally. The measuring objective of the head and shoulders pattern would carry the single currency below $1.20, our year-end target. The euro's 50-day moving average has…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 20, 2013 at 5:20pm — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "On the road seeing clients is always most enlightening, always the best way to take the market pulse. But the road can be a tricky place from which to develop detailed strategy ideas – too much distance from day-to-day detail.
So just a few bullets on broader, thematic, directional, conviction: In three words, keep buying Dollars.
(...) Yen is still your number (1) funding currency as Japanese foreign bond buying begins in semi earnest and on the critical…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 20, 2013 at 11:02am — No Comments