The GBPUSD continued to maintain its bullish momentum after breaking above 1.5630/1.5687 levels, next resistance is at 1.5803 ahead of 1.5878, stability above 1.5878 on a daily closing basis will have large bullish implication, and sooner or later the pair will target 1.6060 ahead of 1.6250.
On the downside, note that rejection from 1.5803/1.5878 levels is suggested , support is at 1.5630, a daily close below this level would weaken the current bullish run and pave the way towards…Continue
Added by Haitham653 on June 13, 2013 at 8:49pm — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY BEARISH Upside will be viewed as corrective and unwinding the overextended downside conditions. Resistance is at 99.36 ahead of 100.40. Support is at 94.99 ahead of 93.57.
EURUSD BULLISH There is a strong resistance at 1.3342. A closing break above which would be positive over the longer term, opening 1.3520. Support is at 1.3112 ahead of 1.3052.
GBPUSD BULLISH As bullish conditions persist, a break above 1.5684 would open the way to test the main resistance at 1.5789.…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 10, 2013 at 9:13am — No Comments
The GBPUSD maintained a bullish momentum last week after topping at 1.5683, now pressure will be on the key resistance 1.5683. The GBPUSD will have to hold above the 1.5683 levels on a weekly closing basis to push the market for further upside gains,If seen ; expect the market to strengthen further towards the 1.5915 levels ahead of the 1.6215 levels, where a breach will turn focus on the 1.6540 levels.
On the downside, support is at 1.5191 ahead of the 1.5007 levels, then…Continue
Added by Haitham653 on June 8, 2013 at 10:13pm — No Comments
Rabobank - "The June Bank of England policy meeting was never likely to be a game changer for sterling. That said, the UK economy has entered into an interesting phase. Finally there are sufficient signs of improvement in data releases to indicate that the country may be entering into a nascent economic recovery. The slightly better tone of economic data will be a relief to Governor King who retires at the end of the month after a difficult tenure. However, King has still left plenty of work…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 7, 2013 at 5:51pm — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY BEARISH Any upside will be limited in time and extent, as the broader focus is for a break below support at 97.31, extending weakness to 95.79. Resistance is at 100.73 and 101.31.
EURUSD NEUTRAL The latest strength suggests there is potential for extension to test the resistance at 1.3194 and then 1.3243. Support is at 1.2934 ahead of 1.2797.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL The recent advance found resistance at 1.5378. A closing break above which would be positive, signalling scope for…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 4, 2013 at 8:51am — No Comments
Societé Generale -
- "Sterling bearishness against both the dollar and euro is now the clearest directional signal from G10 risk reversals.
- Vols are getting more nervous with cable’s down moves, and the EUR/GBP skew has turned sharply to the topside.
- But risk reversals should calm down for now: Carney starts in just a month and we expect the dollar’s upwave to take a pause. In H2 the cable downtrend will resume and propel vols.
- We recommend trading this two-step…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 1, 2013 at 7:10pm — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY BULLISH The latest setback found support at 100.38. A move below which would extend the correction to 99.58. Resistance is at 102.59, a break above would open 103.74 ahead of 105.60.
GBPUSD BEARISH Initial support is at 1.5014, a break below this would extend weakness to test the critical 1.4832. Resistance is at 1.5174 ahead of 1.5240.
USDCHF BULLISH The recent weakness does not change the broader bullish picture and major support is at 0.9543. Resistance is at…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 27, 2013 at 8:30am — No Comments
Societé Generale - "Good Morning. Buy the dollar, sell EMFX and sell carry. It isn't about when the Fed “tapers”, it's about too many positions on the same side of the boat and the danger of a capsize.
When the Fed will slow its Treasury purchases will be data-dependent and the Funds rate may be less important in policy-making going forwards. Those are the direct takeaways from the FOMC minutes but the market tells us something different. The prospect of low rates for a long time…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 23, 2013 at 10:04am — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY BULLISH With the broader bull trend in place, the next major resistance focus is at 105.60. Support is at 101.26.
EURUSD BEARISH Any upside will be limited as bearish conditions persist. Resistance is at 1.2967 and 1.3020. Support is at 1.2797, a break below would expose 1.2746 ahead of the critical 1.2662.
The pair sold off sharply to test support at 1.5128 yesterday.
GBPUSD BEARISH There is scope for more downside in the near-term. Next support is at 1.5034 ahead…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 22, 2013 at 2:20pm — No Comments
Brown Brothers Harriman - "Euro: A large head and shoulders pattern is being carved out. The neckline is seen near the late March and early April lows around $1.2740. Below there is the low from last November near $1.2660, which is just below the $1.2680 retracement objective ($1.2680) of Draghi's OMT induced rally. The measuring objective of the head and shoulders pattern would carry the single currency below $1.20, our year-end target. The euro's 50-day moving average has…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 20, 2013 at 5:20pm — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "On the road seeing clients is always most enlightening, always the best way to take the market pulse. But the road can be a tricky place from which to develop detailed strategy ideas – too much distance from day-to-day detail.
So just a few bullets on broader, thematic, directional, conviction: In three words, keep buying Dollars.
(...) Yen is still your number (1) funding currency as Japanese foreign bond buying begins in semi earnest and on the critical…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 20, 2013 at 11:02am — No Comments
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "The pound has outperformed over the last two months with the trade-weighted index increasing by 3.0% from its recent low point recorded on the 12th March. The pound’s recent outperformance followed a period of heavy selling in early 2013 when the trade-weighted index declined by close to 7.0%. Despite the recent corrective rebound, the trade-weighted pound still remains around 3.9% lower than at the end of last year. The pound’s recent upward momentum now appears…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 16, 2013 at 7:13pm — No Comments
ANZ - "Slippage from 1.5600 may seem relatively sharp, but the broader profile remains that of defining a trading range after the slump to 1.4830-50 in March. The 1.5125-1.5225 area ought to hold and provide support for a secondary push towards the 1.5750-75 area."…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 15, 2013 at 10:33am — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "After a string of better data, we expect some weaker UK data to start coming through over the next week or so. More broadly, data surprises appear to be having a diminishing supportive impact on GBP. While data forecasters may have been slow to adjust, there appears a more widespread market view that data will surprise. Investors can't be surprised by a surprise that everyone expects. The second derivative of surprises already looks to be turning over. GBP/USD…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 13, 2013 at 6:30pm — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY BULLISH The pair extended its strength and is approaching first resistance at 103.07, a break above which would open the important 105.50. Support is at 100.54 ahead of 98.58.
GBPUSD BULLISH The latest setback does not change the broader bullish picture. Support is at 1.5310 ahead of 1.5219. Resistance is at 1.5458 ahead of 1.5606.
EURUSD NEUTRAL Friday's sell-off stalled exactly at the strong support at 1.2936. A closing break below would be a bearish development,…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 13, 2013 at 8:38am — No Comments
Deutsche Bank - "Macro conditions for B/Es have improved somewhat with commodities stabilizing and economic data on balance surprising on the upside again. Just like for the US and the euro area, our B/E momentum score appears to have bottomed, while remaining in negative territory. Some further confirmation of these trends will be needed in the coming weeks.
In the UK, an additional headwind for B/Es has been the renewed strengthening in the exchange rate. A sideways trend in…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 10, 2013 at 3:09pm — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "As a Top Theme and Trade for 2013 we recommended establishing a short GBP/USD position. We hit our initial 1.5050 within three months. We eventually closed the position on 11th April after spot retraced to hit our revised take-profit stop of 1.5390. The relatively poor structural position of the UK, particularly against the US has remained unchanged and hence the strategy remains compelling. We now believe that short-term risk/reward has once again shifted in favour…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 10, 2013 at 9:19am — No Comments
The GBPUSD has been consolidating for almost 2 weeks below the key resistance 1.5630, note that as long as 1.5803/1.5630 levels hold on a daily closing basis , the risk to return to 1.4830 level will remain valid and strong ,a daily close below 1.5457 will pave the way towards 1.5284 levels, but in return, stability above 1.5803 on a daily closing basis is likely to have large bullish implication, If seen, sooner or later the pair would target 1.6300 levels...
Support levels : 1.5457,…Continue
As shown on the 4 hour chart posted below, the GBPUSD has formed a breakout pattern, support at 1.5476, resistance at 1.5600, a four hour close above 1.5600 will advance the pair further higher towards 1.5725 and 1.5850 levels, while a four hour close below 1.5476 will open the way to 1.4350 and 1.4225 levels.
Recommendation 1 # : Buying the pair with a 4 hour closing above 1.5600 targeting 1.5725 and 1.5850 levels , stop loss below 1.5476 levels.
UBS - "USDJPY BULLISH With the broader bull trend in place, any downside will be limited. Support is at 97.90 ahead of 97.01. Important resistance is at 99.95 ahead of 101.45.
GBPUSD BULLISH Critical resistance at 1.5606, a closing break above this would be positive opening the way to 1.5689 and 1.5789. Support is at 1.5481 ahead of 1.5402.
EURUSD NEUTRAL Initial support is at 1.3033, a break below this would expose 1.2995 and then 1.2936. Resistance is at 1.3159 ahead of…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 7, 2013 at 7:30am — No Comments