Slowly but surely, GBP/USD sellers have taken control of the pair over the past couple of weeks. They've managed to drag it down a good number of pips after price topped out around 1.5400, and now it looks as though they may be preparing for another push... at least that's what the bearish divergence is suggesting! If you want to get a piece of this trend, you might your chance just above 1.5300, where price meets the falling trend line.…
Added by Abdul Rehman on April 23, 2013 at 12:16pm — No Comments
This is my 2 scenarios:
Sell 1.5295 / TP 1.5243 / SL 1.5325
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 22, 2013 at 2:23pm — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD NEUTRAL Support is at 1.2974 ahead of 1.2920. Resistance is at 1.3228.
USDJPY BULLISH As bullish trend persists, there is scope for a test of resistance at psychological 100.00; a break above which would open 101.45. Support is at 97.22 and 95.80.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Critical resistance is at 1.5424. Only a closing break above this would indicate further upside to 1.5606. Strong support is at 1.5178 ahead of 1.5034.
USDCHF BEARISH As long as resistance at 0.9345 holds,…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 18, 2013 at 8:06am — No Comments
JP Morgan - "The strong overshooting of key-Fib.-resistance at 1.5346 (minor 38.2 %) in Cable has caused a bit of a headache as it is currently unclear whether we are only dealing with an overshooting, internal 4th wave recovery or with a IInd wave on bigger scale. The latter could easily extend to 1.5775-88/1.5812 (200 DMA/int. 61.8 %/ monthly triangle) and possibly to 1.6014 (int. 76.4 %) where good risk rewards would be given to re-enter or to add to core short positions. A renewed break…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 17, 2013 at 8:01am — No Comments
Westpac - "We have run with a positive bias on GBP for some time now, having chosen to hold this via short EUR/GBP. On Feb 26, we recommended selling EUR/GBP on strength, establishing a full short position at an average price of 0.8718. On March 28 we recommend taking back half of that short position at 0.8440.
We have hit our trailing stop (0.8585) on the balance of this position and have now closed it for a 2.36% return to our portfolio.
On April 11 we recommended rolling from…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 17, 2013 at 7:44am — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "An absence of new reasons to add to short GBP positions has continued to see a trimming of speculative positions, most noticeably in GBP/USD. However, the move in GBP/USD also reflects a more cautious USD environment, as the last set of US payroll numbers continue to lead to jitters about the strength of the US recovery and what this may mean for the tapering of the Fed's asset purchases. This is also reflected by the relative stability of EUR/GBP.
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 15, 2013 at 7:41pm — No Comments
UBS - "GBPUSD NEUTRAL Critical resistance is at 1.5424. Support is at 1.5268 ahead of 1.5178.
USDCHF NEUTRAL There is a main support at 0.9230 – only a closing breach here would be a strong bearish development. Resistance is at 0.9340 ahead of 0.9375.
EURUSD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.3138 ahead of 1.3228. Support is at 1.2988 ahead of 1.2896.
USDJPY BULLISH The latest setback is correction to unwind the overextended upside conditions. Support at 97.13 should hold. Resistance is…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 15, 2013 at 8:55am — No Comments
ING Bank - "In terms of the USD, we are comfortable being trapped in the narrative of a cyclically bullish dollar story. As Rob Carnell highlights, the US economy went into government sequestration on a strong footing. We doubt the US soft patch will weigh too heavily on the dollar (given the weak external environment) and a return to 3% growth in 2H13 can see the market credibly start to question the longevity of the Fed’s QE programme. That should move yield spreads move markedly in favour…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 12, 2013 at 2:04pm — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.3134 ahead of 1.3228. Support is at 1.2978 ahead of 1.2890.
USDJPY BULLISH The pair tested critical resistance at 99.875 and the next major resistance is at 101.45. The immediate risk is for a setback, support at 98.59 ahead of 97.09.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.5363 ahead of 1.5424 - while this holds, there is scope for resumption of broader bear trend. Support is at 1.5239 ahead of 1.5160."
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 11, 2013 at 10:22am — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "The April BoE decision saw GBP/USD trade higher. The official consensus was for no change but the unofficial consensus may have been skewed more towards action after the Chancellor amended the BoE's remit last month. A disappointingly weak US non farm payrolls print also helped to push GBP/USD higher as it calls into question the sustainability of recent improvement in the labour market. It's also possible it will see a pricing out of expectations around the Fed…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 8, 2013 at 1:21pm — No Comments
National Australia Bank - "Financial ‘shock and awe’ may not be too inappropriate a description of last week’s unveiling of ‘QQME’ by the Bank of Japan. Having comfortably leapfrogged market expectations for what the new BoJ regime under Kurodo was likely to deliver at its first outing, the explosive JPY reaction was justified and should have further to run. We expect 100 to be surpassed sooner rather than later and suggest that a level near 110 is justified on the back of the BoJ plan to…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 8, 2013 at 10:39am — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH The broader picture is still bearish and upside should be limited, with resistance at 1.3048 and then 1.3115. Support is at 1.2858 ahead of 1.2746.
USDJPY BULLISH The sharp rally extended this morning and is approaching important resistance at 99.850; a break above would open 101.45. Support is at 95.77.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL The important resistance is at 1.5424, a closing break above this would extend the recovery to 1.5606. Support is at 1.5200 ahead of…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 8, 2013 at 8:00am — No Comments
Recommendations: LONG positions around 1.5255 with 1.5440 & 1.5525 as next targets.
Alternative scenario: The downside breakout of 1.5180 will call for a rebound to 1.5110/1.5033.
Description: The GBPUSD maintained a strong bullish momentum last week, after the break above 1.5255 levels, topped at 1.5363 levels .support is at 1.5255 levels ahead of 15180, so, as long as 15180 holds on a 4 hour…
The GBPUSD continued to maintain its bullish momentum the past few days, pressure now will be on the key resistance 1.5245, the GBPUSD will have to hold above the 1.5245 levels on a daily closing basis to push the market for further upside gains, If seen , it will aim 1.5320 where a breach will turn focus on the 1.5500 levels.
On the downside, a failure to hold above the 1.5245 levels, could mean a return to the 1.5033 levels, to reverse risks to the downside , the…Continue
Societé Generale - "US data is now turning less buoyant and we expect further (temporary) slowing in spring. But the dollar can still do well in Q2 on rising euro area (EA) stress and the divergence of monetary policy expectations. Indeed, the race to the bottom isn’t completely over. The BoJ has delivered bold easing. The European currencies are most exposed, as both the ECB and BoE are mulling further action. In a shakier risk environment in Q2, the high-beta EM FX, like ZAR, should…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 4, 2013 at 8:33pm — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH Any upside should be limited in time and extent, with resistance at 1.2900 and 1.2935. Support is at 1.2751, a break below would expose 1.2662.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Resistance is at 93.69 ahead of 94.38. Support is at 92.57, a breach of which would extend correction to 90.88.
GBPUSD BEARISH Strong resistance is at 1.5269. While this holds, watch for a break under 1.5027 and extend weakness to 1.4832.
USDCHF BULLISH While support at 0.9429 holds, there is…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 4, 2013 at 9:52am — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "EUR/GBP continues to look to be the place where GBP has the most potential to outperform. The introduction of capital controls in Cyprus was important. The controls are due to be in place for a week, but in reality could be there for months, or potentially years. The longer they are in place, the greater the damage to financial market confidence and economic activity. The market is going to be on alert for any sign that capital is being moved out of other weaker…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 2, 2013 at 5:10pm — No Comments
Recommendations: SHORT positions below 1.5175 with 1.5090 & 1.5025 as next targets.
Alternative scenario: The upside breakout of 1.5175 will call for a rebound to 1.5235/320.
Description: The pair trades below its resistance at 1.5175, below this level look for further downside losses towards 1.5090 & 1.5025 levels, a break above 1.5175 - an hourly close is better - will reverse risks to the…
Brown Brothers Harriman - "We had been monitoring what appeared to be a head and shoulders bottom for sterling. It reached $1.5270 and reversed, dropping almost 2 cents before bottoming, and returning to the neck line of the pattern near $1.5200. It is not uncommon for the a retest of a neck line in a head and shoulders pattern, though this time it was rather deep. Even though the price action was disappointing, a number of technical indicators suggest it may be premature to abandon the idea…Continue