Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi: "The pound may continue to strengthen modestly in the near-term on the back of strengthening UK cyclical momentum. However, those gains are likely to prove limited and remain vulnerable both in the near-term and medium–term. In the near-term those gains could quickly reverse should the BoE choose to strengthen its forward rate guidance. One upcoming key event which poses some downside risk for the pound is on the 28th August when Governor Carney is next scheduled to…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on August 16, 2013 at 4:03pm — No Comments
ING Bank - "The Fed’s campaign to reinforce a message that tapering is not tightening has seen the USD hand back the gains that by early July had, on some measures, taken it to its highest level for three years. Yet we feel that its recent weakening needs to be placed in the context of a USD that is still well within the ranges established so far in 2013. Our base case remains very much for the USD to enjoy a strong recovery into year-end, even if the catalyst for its gains is in danger of…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on August 15, 2013 at 11:19am — No Comments
HSBC - "At the moment the market is seeing excellent UK data but only moderate-to-disappointing US data and that is pushing GBP higher. This is not a situation we believe will persist. UK monetary policy will eventually distance itself from the less dovish tone emanating from the US Fed. Such a divergence in policy is a rare event in UK-US economic history, and has been associated with GBP-USD weakness in the past. In addition, while the path of policy in both countries will be determined by…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on August 9, 2013 at 3:35pm — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY NEUTRAL The recent sell-off is approaching the critical support at 96.75.A closing break below this will trigger further sell-off. Resistance is at 98.59 ahead of 99.95.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Sharp advance was seen since Friday, is held by the critical resistance at 1.5394. A closing break above this would be positive. Support is at 1.5281 ahead of 1.5213.
USDCHF BEARISH The pair is approaching the first support at 0.9229. A move below this would trigger further sell-off…
Added by Francesc Riverola on August 7, 2013 at 2:53pm — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BULLISH Yesterday’s sharp sell-off is viewed as a correction to unwind the overextended upside extremes. With the bull trend intact, potential is for the pair to move above 1.3302 to test the key resistance at 1.3417. Support is at 1.3120.
USDJPY NEUTRAL The pair advanced from the strong support at 96.75. This strength is approaching the resistance at 100.02. A closing break above this would trigger further upside.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL With the MACD threatening to cross…
Added by Francesc Riverola on August 2, 2013 at 3:00pm — No Comments
HSBC - "Over the next 10 days the markets will be focusing heavily on the policy meetings of the big four
This week: Fed, BoE, ECB
Next week: BoJ, RBA (We expect 25bp cut), BoE Carney inflation report
For those with a weak constitution look away now, because on top of these policy meetings we have crucial data: US GDP data (important benchmark revisions), ISM, Payrolls
By the end of the week we may have a better understanding of where we stand on the tapering debate. This…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 30, 2013 at 10:25pm — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BULLISH As the bull trend persists, indicated by the trending and momentum indicators pointing higher, focus is on further upside. Key resistance is at 1.3417. Support is at 1.3253 ahead of 1.3166
USDJPY NEUTRAL The sharp sell-off since Thursday faces a strong support at 96.75.A closing break below this would trigger further sell-off. Resistance is at 99.41 ahead of 100.87.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL The pair is testing the critical resistance at 1.5394, since Thursday. A closing…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 29, 2013 at 1:39pm — No Comments
Goldman Sachs - "EUR/$: Our positive stance on the EUR is due to the stronger BBoP trend for the Euro area. In contrast to the weaker balance for the US, this structural imbalance implies a gradually weaker USD and a stronger EUR. Downside risk remains in the Euro area, with growth remaining weak and the ECB signaling that it expects to keep rates low, with a downward bias, for ‘an extended period’. However in the longer run – and after more ‘muddling through’ – we expect…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 24, 2013 at 1:55pm — No Comments
(received 8h ago but could not publish it as I was sleeping :)
UBS - "EURUSD BULLISH With the trending and momentum indicators pointing higher, focus is on further upside. Key resistance is at 1.3417. Support is at 1.3134 ahead of 1.3052.
USDJPY BULLISH Any downside will be held by strong support at 98.57, which was held previously on a closing basis. Focus is on resumption of upside, with resistance at 101.53 ahead of the key resistance at…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 24, 2013 at 1:43pm — No Comments
Brown Brothers Harriman - "Euro: After recovering from $1.2755 on July 9 to $1.3200 on July 11, the single currency has been consolidating. In that consolidation, it has been carving out what appears to be a flag, which is understood as a continuation pattern. However, we are skeptical of the pattern's validity as it is getting too close to the apex. Nevertheless, the relative strength index and the MACDs are constructive and the 5-day average crossed above the 20-day…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 22, 2013 at 3:03pm — No Comments
HSBC - "GBP-USD is likely to fall further. UK monetary policy is seeking to distance itself from the less dovish tone emanating from the US Fed. Such a divergence in policy is a rare event in UK-US economic history, and has been associated with GBP-USD weakness in the past. In addition, while the path of policy in both countries will be determined by the economic data, here too the risks are skewed towards the GBP weakness."
(this info was published 8h ago so please take this in count)
UBS - "USDJPY BULLISH With the bull trend intact, focus is on resumption of upside, with resistance at 101.53 ahead of the key resistance at 103.74. Support is at 98.27.
GBPUSD BEARISH There is a strong resistance at 1.5283; which should be held on a closing basis. Initial support is at 1.5018 ahead of 1.4814.
USDCHF NEUTRAL There is a strong support at 0.9367. A break below this would be negative. On the upside,…
Brown Brothers Harriman - "Our longer term bullish dollar outlook has not been impacted by the near-term volatility or the possibility that the Fed's exit strategy is more prolonged than the market had come to anticipate. We have argued that the tapering may begin later than the consensus expected. This view was based on 1) ideas that the economy would stay weak in Q3 and that underlying employment growth was not accelerating; 2) that low core inflation might not be able to be ignored if…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 15, 2013 at 4:29pm — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "We thought the summer would bring significant event risk for GBP crosses and we haven't been disappointed so far. The Bank of England (BoE) and ECB have unveiled a clear dovish bias but last week also saw Bernanke pushing back Fed tightening expectations. While it seems unlikely we'll get back to the abundant liquidity fuelled market rally of earlier in the year, a commitment to ultra loose Fed policy may provide some impetus for risk positive sentiment. GBP/USD has…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 15, 2013 at 2:14pm — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD and GBPUSD have experienced two major regimes over the last couple of decades. In the 1990s both currency pairs tended to weaken when investors were risk seeking while over the last decade both exchange rates have strengthened when stock markets have been rallying.
The shifting experience of the euro and the pound against the dollar appears to have resulted from the Fed changing policy stance after the internet bubble burst in 2000-2001, and consistently setting interest…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 11, 2013 at 10:35am — No Comments
Rabobank - "Even if UK fundamentals suggest that sterling should be offer some support at current levels another burst of broad-based USD strength would still leave cable vulnerable. Later this week Fed chairman Bernanke will be speaking. He may give the market more reason to be optimistic on the US economic recovery. If this is the case cable will clearly be vulnerable. However, there is also a strong risk that Bernanke may also push back against the view that the tapering of QE is almost…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 9, 2013 at 9:22am — No Comments
Rabobank - "Central bankers and US payrolls data appeared to leave the outlook for EUR/USD and GBP/USD cut and dried last week. Both the ECB and BoE were dovish while the better headline numbers within the US labour report has encouraged speculation of tapering of QE from the Fed as soon as September. Although there is little US data scheduled this week, investors will have the benefit of the minutes of the June FOMC meeting in addition to a speech from Fed President Bernanke later in the…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 8, 2013 at 11:04am — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY BULLISH The pair extended its strength this morning and the potential is for the test of key resistance at 103.74. Support is at 99.26.
GBPUSD BEARISH Sharp fall seen on Friday is trading just above the key support 1.4832. A closing break below this would be negative. Resistance is at 1.5080.
USDCHF BULLISH Friday the pair closed above the resistance at 0.9568. This was positive opening 0.9839. Support is at 0.9560.
EURUSD BEARISH With the bear trend intact focus is…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 8, 2013 at 8:42am — No Comments
UBS - "We have held a negative GBPUSD view for all of 2013, with our key argument being the likelihood of a major monetary policy shift in a dovish direction under the new Carney administration. We reflected this via a short GBPUSD trade recommendation established on 14 Feb (we bought a 6-month 15 Aug expiry 1.4800 strike GBP put / USD call with spot at 1.5500 for 0.9975% of face), arguing that both GBP downside and cable implied volatility were underpriced given the risks involved,…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 5, 2013 at 3:45pm — No Comments
BMO Capital Markets - "Major central banks are adjusting their overall policy stances in relation to the prospects for Fed QE tapering. As a result, they are aiming to anchor their short-term and long-term rates. Effectively, this strategy is developing into a de-facto interest rate spread cap versus USD rates. There will therefore be less room for appreciation of these currencies relative to the USD in the weeks ahead regardless of their economic dataflow, leaving USD/JPY, GBP/USD and…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 5, 2013 at 10:36am — No Comments