Societé Generale - "Good Morning. Buy the dollar, sell EMFX and sell carry. It isn't about when the Fed “tapers”, it's about too many positions on the same side of the boat and the danger of a capsize.
When the Fed will slow its Treasury purchases will be data-dependent and the Funds rate may be less important in policy-making going forwards. Those are the direct takeaways from the FOMC minutes but the market tells us something different. The prospect of low rates for a long time…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 23, 2013 at 10:04am — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY BULLISH With the broader bull trend in place, the next major resistance focus is at 105.60. Support is at 101.26.
EURUSD BEARISH Any upside will be limited as bearish conditions persist. Resistance is at 1.2967 and 1.3020. Support is at 1.2797, a break below would expose 1.2746 ahead of the critical 1.2662.
The pair sold off sharply to test support at 1.5128 yesterday.
GBPUSD BEARISH There is scope for more downside in the near-term. Next support is at 1.5034 ahead…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 22, 2013 at 2:20pm — No Comments
Brown Brothers Harriman - "Euro: A large head and shoulders pattern is being carved out. The neckline is seen near the late March and early April lows around $1.2740. Below there is the low from last November near $1.2660, which is just below the $1.2680 retracement objective ($1.2680) of Draghi's OMT induced rally. The measuring objective of the head and shoulders pattern would carry the single currency below $1.20, our year-end target. The euro's 50-day moving average has…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 20, 2013 at 5:20pm — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "On the road seeing clients is always most enlightening, always the best way to take the market pulse. But the road can be a tricky place from which to develop detailed strategy ideas – too much distance from day-to-day detail.
So just a few bullets on broader, thematic, directional, conviction: In three words, keep buying Dollars.
(...) Yen is still your number (1) funding currency as Japanese foreign bond buying begins in semi earnest and on the critical…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 20, 2013 at 11:02am — No Comments
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "The pound has outperformed over the last two months with the trade-weighted index increasing by 3.0% from its recent low point recorded on the 12th March. The pound’s recent outperformance followed a period of heavy selling in early 2013 when the trade-weighted index declined by close to 7.0%. Despite the recent corrective rebound, the trade-weighted pound still remains around 3.9% lower than at the end of last year. The pound’s recent upward momentum now appears…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 16, 2013 at 7:13pm — No Comments
ANZ - "Slippage from 1.5600 may seem relatively sharp, but the broader profile remains that of defining a trading range after the slump to 1.4830-50 in March. The 1.5125-1.5225 area ought to hold and provide support for a secondary push towards the 1.5750-75 area."…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 15, 2013 at 10:33am — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "After a string of better data, we expect some weaker UK data to start coming through over the next week or so. More broadly, data surprises appear to be having a diminishing supportive impact on GBP. While data forecasters may have been slow to adjust, there appears a more widespread market view that data will surprise. Investors can't be surprised by a surprise that everyone expects. The second derivative of surprises already looks to be turning over. GBP/USD…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 13, 2013 at 6:30pm — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY BULLISH The pair extended its strength and is approaching first resistance at 103.07, a break above which would open the important 105.50. Support is at 100.54 ahead of 98.58.
GBPUSD BULLISH The latest setback does not change the broader bullish picture. Support is at 1.5310 ahead of 1.5219. Resistance is at 1.5458 ahead of 1.5606.
EURUSD NEUTRAL Friday's sell-off stalled exactly at the strong support at 1.2936. A closing break below would be a bearish development,…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 13, 2013 at 8:38am — No Comments
Deutsche Bank - "Macro conditions for B/Es have improved somewhat with commodities stabilizing and economic data on balance surprising on the upside again. Just like for the US and the euro area, our B/E momentum score appears to have bottomed, while remaining in negative territory. Some further confirmation of these trends will be needed in the coming weeks.
In the UK, an additional headwind for B/Es has been the renewed strengthening in the exchange rate. A sideways trend in…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 10, 2013 at 3:09pm — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "As a Top Theme and Trade for 2013 we recommended establishing a short GBP/USD position. We hit our initial 1.5050 within three months. We eventually closed the position on 11th April after spot retraced to hit our revised take-profit stop of 1.5390. The relatively poor structural position of the UK, particularly against the US has remained unchanged and hence the strategy remains compelling. We now believe that short-term risk/reward has once again shifted in favour…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 10, 2013 at 9:19am — No Comments
The GBPUSD has been consolidating for almost 2 weeks below the key resistance 1.5630, note that as long as 1.5803/1.5630 levels hold on a daily closing basis , the risk to return to 1.4830 level will remain valid and strong ,a daily close below 1.5457 will pave the way towards 1.5284 levels, but in return, stability above 1.5803 on a daily closing basis is likely to have large bullish implication, If seen, sooner or later the pair would target 1.6300 levels...
Support levels : 1.5457,…Continue
As shown on the 4 hour chart posted below, the GBPUSD has formed a breakout pattern, support at 1.5476, resistance at 1.5600, a four hour close above 1.5600 will advance the pair further higher towards 1.5725 and 1.5850 levels, while a four hour close below 1.5476 will open the way to 1.4350 and 1.4225 levels.
Recommendation 1 # : Buying the pair with a 4 hour closing above 1.5600 targeting 1.5725 and 1.5850 levels , stop loss below 1.5476 levels.
UBS - "USDJPY BULLISH With the broader bull trend in place, any downside will be limited. Support is at 97.90 ahead of 97.01. Important resistance is at 99.95 ahead of 101.45.
GBPUSD BULLISH Critical resistance at 1.5606, a closing break above this would be positive opening the way to 1.5689 and 1.5789. Support is at 1.5481 ahead of 1.5402.
EURUSD NEUTRAL Initial support is at 1.3033, a break below this would expose 1.2995 and then 1.2936. Resistance is at 1.3159 ahead of…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 7, 2013 at 7:30am — No Comments
National Australia Bank - "Key trade ideas:
We remain long of USD/JPY from 99.40, looking for a break through 100 in the wake of stronger US data.
Our short AUD, long CAD established at 1.0635 is more than 2 cents in the money and we still target parity.
We have closed our short AUD/NZD position from 1.2525 at 1.2058 for a profit of 3.73%, though we stand ready to re-sell given divergent economic fundamentals and rate profiles.
We are still short GBP/USD from 1.5150, but will…
UBS - "USDJPY NEUTRAL The latest setback does not change the broader bullish picture as long as strong support at 95.80 holds. Initial resistance is at 98.20 ahead of the psychological 100.00.
GBPUSD BULLISH The pair posts new recovery high and tested the critical resistance at 1.5606, a closing break above this would open 1.5689. Support is at 1.5468.
USDCHF BEARISH There is a critical support at 0.9207 ahead of 0.9150. Near-term resistance is at 0.9310 ahead of 0.9384.
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 2, 2013 at 10:17am — No Comments
Wells Fargo - "The United Kingdom experienced a sharp depreciation of its currency during the GFC. Between its high in July 2007 and its low in March 2009, Britain’s real effective exchange rate fell more than 25 percent (Figure 7).4 Not only did sterling weaken significantly against the U.S. dollar during the GFC as investors moved into the safe-haven of the greenback, but the British pound also depreciated vis-à-vis the euro.5 This real exchange depreciation undoubtedly played a role in…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 30, 2013 at 12:06pm — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "The most recent activity indicators in the UK have improved against down-trodden expectations. It avoided the triple dip recession feared last week. With activity indicators deteriorating faster recently in the US, Europe and China, the UK is looking relatively better. There is no BoE meeting this week. And if their was, they would still probably leave policy unchanged.
After GBP's slide in Q1, it has been consolidating recently, retracing over one-third of this…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 30, 2013 at 10:02am — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY NEUTRAL The latest setback does not change the broader bullish picture as long as strong support at 95.80 holds. Resistance is at the psychological 100.00.
GBPUSD BULLISH The pair posts new recovery high and is approaching resistance at 1.5550. The next major resistance is at 1.5606, a break above this would open 1.5689. Support is at 1.5419 ahead of 1.5361.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Support is at 0.9387, a move below would expose 0.9319. Near-term resistance is at 0.9457 ahead of…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 29, 2013 at 9:36am — No Comments
The GBPUSD continued to maintain its bullish momentum the past few weeks, now pressure will be on the key resistance 1.5507 - high of the week 17 Feb 2013 , this level is a pivotal in the medium/long term outlook, to resume its upside offensive , a break and hold above 1.5507 on a weekly closing basis is needed,If seen, we would have 2 scenarios :
Scenario A : the pair will hold above 1.5507 before attacking 1.5775 ahead of 1.6000 levels, break of 1.6000 will target 1.6400…Continue
UBS - "EURUSD Resistance is at 1.3108, a break above this would open the more critical 1.3202 and then 1.3232. Support is at 1.2955 and 1.2920 – a breach here would be a bearish development.
USDJPY As long as support at 97.85 holds, there’s scope for extension of the broader bull trend. Resistance is at the psychological 100.00, a break above this would be positive, opening 101.45.
GBPUSD Having closed above 1.5424, the risk is for further upside in the near-term as the trending…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 26, 2013 at 8:23am — No Comments