Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "The pound has outperformed over the last two months with the trade-weighted index increasing by 3.0% from its recent low point recorded on the 12th March. The pound’s recent outperformance followed a period of heavy selling in early 2013 when the trade-weighted index declined by close to 7.0%. Despite the recent corrective rebound, the trade-weighted pound still remains around 3.9% lower than at the end of last year. The pound’s recent upward momentum now appears…

ANZ - "Slippage from 1.5600 may seem relatively sharp, but the broader profile remains that of defining a trading range after the slump to 1.4830-50 in March. The 1.5125-1.5225 area ought to hold and provide support for a secondary push towards the 1.5750-75 area."…

Royal Bank of Scotland - "After a string of better data, we expect some weaker UK data to start coming through over the next week or so. More broadly, data surprises appear to be having a diminishing supportive impact on GBP. While data forecasters may have been slow to adjust, there appears a more widespread market view that data will surprise. Investors can't be surprised by a surprise that everyone expects. The second derivative of surprises already looks to be turning over. GBP/USD…

Deutsche Bank - "Macro conditions for B/Es have improved somewhat with commodities stabilizing and economic data on balance surprising on the upside again. Just like for the US and the euro area, our B/E momentum score appears to have bottomed, while remaining in negative territory. Some further confirmation of these trends will be needed in the coming weeks.

In the UK, an additional headwind for B/Es has been the renewed strengthening in the exchange rate. A sideways trend in…

Royal Bank of Scotland - "As a Top Theme and Trade for 2013 we recommended establishing a short GBP/USD position. We hit our initial 1.5050 within three months. We eventually closed the position on 11th April after spot retraced to hit our revised take-profit stop of 1.5390. The relatively poor structural position of the UK, particularly against the US has remained unchanged and hence the strategy remains compelling. We now believe that short-term risk/reward has once again shifted in favour…

GBP/USD is forming the bullish setup as mentioned on my earlier post.So Keeping that in mind, we require to have see 1.5700-1.5750 in coming days. Pair already confirmed the bullish idea by breaking the channel out and can label as described in below image. Any long should have stop loss @ 1.5465

On alternate idea, we can expect a flat correction, but the probability of flat correction is very…

Westpac - "We have run with a positive bias on GBP for some time now, having chosen to hold this via short EUR/GBP. On Feb 26, we recommended selling EUR/GBP on strength. On March 28 we recommend taking back half of that short position.

On April 11th, we recommended buying GBP outright on the grounds that it was under-owned and was likely to benefit more than most from an improved risk sentiment post the BoJ's QQME announcement. We established long GBP at 1.5333 and added on dips to…

Current price is not bearish at all, at least on my primary count. We might see price trading above 1.56 area. On Alternate idea, we might be in wave 1 of first impulse leg down. But that too is not completed, We only can identified 3 waves. So here is the game plan for gbp/usd.

Case 1: Trading for wave 5 (Primary) Bullish Setup

we will wait…

Gbp/Usd current price might be part of flat correction of wave 4, and expecting another high above 1.5605 before it having sell off. I booked 29 pips profit and decided to see the reaction here. There are chances on which, pound can drop to 1.52 from current price. But on 240 min, chart, there were no impulse action found. and only way I can count is flat correction.

On NFP day, there were sell off happen,…

As per last update, we are in the targeted zone. A zone start from 1.5580 to 1.5620 area. 1.5580 is strong resistance on chart while, 1.5616 is a=c in wave y. I am keeping my sell trigger on, and as soon as I can see reversal pattern on 240 min chart / daily chart, short can be initiated with stop at latest high, 1st target can be 1.52, while second target can be well below 1.48.

Also, started looking for…

My primary view is bearish on pound.

Monthly chart showing five down from 1.6380 after broken weekly uptrend line. That wave can be counted as wave A of ZigZag correction or wave 1 of large impulse move. As chart is on monthly bases, I still not prefer to count them into impulsive manner, rather can be counted as a swing. And so, my preferred count would be the zigzag correction. As part of zigzag…

Wells Fargo - "The United Kingdom experienced a sharp depreciation of its currency during the GFC. Between its high in July 2007 and its low in March 2009, Britain’s real effective exchange rate fell more than 25 percent (Figure 7).4 Not only did sterling weaken significantly against the U.S. dollar during the GFC as investors moved into the safe-haven of the greenback, but the British pound also depreciated vis-à-vis the euro.5 This real exchange depreciation undoubtedly played a role in…

Royal Bank of Scotland - "The most recent activity indicators in the UK have improved against down-trodden expectations. It avoided the triple dip recession feared last week. With activity indicators deteriorating faster recently in the US, Europe and China, the UK is looking relatively better. There is no BoE meeting this week. And if their was, they would still probably leave policy unchanged.

After GBP's slide in Q1, it has been consolidating recently, retracing over one-third of this…

Societé Generale - "Good morning. It's risk-on and raining in London. The Bundesbank doesn't like OMT (we knew that), Angela Merkel chose to point out that Germany needs higher rates (not so sure about that) and next week's ECB meeting and conference call will be fun. But that's all for next week. Today, the SG risk sentiment indicator is back in ‘risk-seeking' territory - an extremely rare event in 2013 despite the S&Ps gains this year.

(...) Crowded positions have been flushed:…

I have very mix view on this pair.

Either we are in the nested impulse count where, we are testing flat correction in [2] (Red), or either wave [c] (Blue) is over and we might see push higher for 1.54 and 1.5480 area. The reason on which I am looking for alternate count, is the bearish channel was broken, (marked with ellipse), and indicator were bullish.

In…

On top of my  earlier morning post, I updated 240min chart with EW labels. Price need to decide which way it need to go. I prefer to be sideline and waiting for either to break.

price either need to break lower blue channel or break Red down trend line. And hence, I decided to banked 46 pips here. On confirmation of either…

Current price is testing the uptrend channel, also testing the huge support drawn on daily chart. If this support breaks, we can see more downside towards 1.51, or we can possibly see two possibilities

a) Either we see bounce here, to test median and then fall back to 1.51

b) Or, we will see straight up to 1.546 area.…

I suspecting, wave 4 is not ended still, as wave 2 was shallow, wave 4 would have deep. Also, as soon as 1.5377 hold good, my earlier count is still valid with very low confidence.

As I suspecting possible new move will have another high for wave 4, and possibly test weekly trend line resistance. This move…

A Chart update, possibly fifth wave start. On alternate, we might see another small high above 1.5406, possibly 1.5460. I will keep below is my primary count and tracking this pair.

Any short on this pair, should trailed down stop loss to 1.5377

240min

Daily…

JP Morgan - "The strong overshooting of key-Fib.-resistance at 1.5346 (minor 38.2 %) in Cable has caused a bit of a headache as it is currently unclear whether we are only dealing with an overshooting, internal 4th wave recovery or with a IInd wave on bigger scale. The latter could easily extend to 1.5775-88/1.5812 (200 DMA/int. 61.8 %/ monthly triangle) and possibly to 1.6014 (int. 76.4 %) where good risk rewards would be given to re-enter or to add to core short positions. A renewed break…