Trade (thematic trades): long EUR/CHF, and USD/CHF
• We remain CHF bears despite its recent resilience.
• The reasons for CHF strength most often discussed by market participants fall into three groups:
• Persistent current account surpluses leading to appreciation pressure on the CHF.
• Expectations for a softening in the CHF floor, driven by a better economic outlook.
Added by ZeusFXTrader on December 15, 2013 at 10:14pm — No Comments
Although the sequence of 2 down weeks ended last week, it is the weakness of the rally that is assessed as more important. Profit taking demand over the 1st two days of last week took EURGBP to the top of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud, back inside the daily Cloud and above the key 13 day m.a.
But this proved temporary with selling renewed in the last 3 days and only minor net gains posted by the close. This price action leaves sentiment mildly negative and we're looking for a…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on November 18, 2013 at 7:09am — No Comments
3 weeks of fluctuating price action in EURGBP were followed by a rejection of initial lows and strong buying in the last 5 days. The resulting gains, using a Marabuzo line from January as a platform, created a Bullish Outside Week.
This positive pattern often signals a change in market sentiment and with the daily Keltner channel trending positively now and the 13 day mvg avg exceeded for the first time in a month, we look for demand to continue.
.8532 and towards .8591 are valid…
Added by Alan Collins on October 7, 2013 at 6:32am — No Comments
The market failed to extend Tuesday’s rejection of 20-month lows. Instead selling pressure was renewed but although a 3rd negative performance from the last 4 days resulted, net losses were modest and the week’s lows went untested. This means signals are not strong going into today but with the Keltner channel trending bearishly, limited rallies and renewed selling in Asia the focus remains on the downside with a move through .8993 confirming a exposing .8972 then towards the 2012…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on October 3, 2013 at 6:40am — No Comments
Although net downside yesterday was not extensive, the move to new 7 month lows was enough to signal an end to 4 days of trendless trading. USDCHF continues to hug the Keltner channel base with rallies capped well below the 13 day m.a and so although oversold extremes are a concern we're looking to downside levels .9079, .9042 or even .9022 - the latter in the coming days.…Continue
Wednesday’s rejection of 8 month lows extended yesterday. The strongest performance of this month resulted with a rally that took the cross marginally through the key 13 day moving average that has capped prices throughout September. Despite overbought extremes, intraday signals are also supportive and so we look for this demand to extend.
.8454/65 is the immediate target area. .8481 behind that.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on September 20, 2013 at 6:30am — No Comments
The past few weeks trading has been a mixed bag, haven't managed to have anything stick so currently in no positions and playing the waiting game hoping for setups to fall in to my trading zones. Persistence is key for me right now. Stick to the strategy and setups will come.
If you would like more specifics about my strategy, click here to see my…Continue
In a previous live trading video, I received some feedback about why I put the buy and sell trading boxes where I did. To explain, I thought it a good idea to create an video on it to show the logic. It’s all to do with a combination of price action and fractals. Understanding the concepts of these are important to any trader, so if you are weak in this area take a look at this video where I…Continue
Added by Rob Helean on July 30, 2013 at 2:18pm — No Comments
Just to mix things up a bit, I decided to record and walk through my analysis and trade planning today. While the principles are fairly standard, I like to work on high levels of efficiency with my trading as you will see with my approach. In 10 minutes, it's basically done.
If you would like to keep receiving such videos, please let me know. I will follow-up with this video to show you the outcome.
I recently received a mail requesting I explain the improvements I made with my trading in the past 12 months. If you didn’t see it, I recently created a video to launch the NGFX Blog and stated in the video that I had learnt more in the past 12 months trading than I had in the past 5 years.
So what did I learn you might be thinking? Basically I approached trading from a completely…Continue
If you have struggles with trade management, take a look at this video where I cover off some high level ideas that you should consider and then provide a brief overview of how I currently manage trades.
I cover three things that are important, firstly the type of trade you are taking (e.g. scalp, spot, swing), whether you like to take profit proactively, or trail your stop, and how your personal emotions impact your trading.
If you can work and settle on these, you should go a…Continue
Thanks to everyone who sent in their feedback for trading blog topics. By far, trade entries were something that stood out, so this video provides you with some ideas and examples of trade entries and some changes you should consider.
Reading between the lines of all the messages we received, it looks like too much emphasis is been put on trade entry and not the real purpose of trading – making money. The more you focus on the latter, trade entries will become an easy obstacle to…Continue
The FX market and commodities are still trapped in consolidation pattern while the US stocks futures are moving higher. A lot of USD pairs are showing very clean signs of a corrective price action, so it seems that USD will depreciate in the near future which means that EUR, GBP, CHF, AUD and CAD will most-likely gain.
On the EURUSD we are tracking two wave patterns, but both corrective. We however like the first wave count; straight move up to 1.3200. Intra-day traders/scalper will…Continue
Added by Gregor Horvat on July 16, 2013 at 8:13am — No Comments
Gold fell to a new low during Asian session with a delay reaction to strong US economic data released yesterday. Good US data means that FED is closer to tapering which is the reason for a sell-off on metals and stronger USD. EURUSD also reached new low at 1.3050 which could be wave five in 1 so corrective recovery may follow soon in wave 2 but remains unconfirmed as long as upper trend-line of a trading channel is in place. So for now pair remains in bearish mode for possible test of…Continue
Added by Gregor Horvat on June 26, 2013 at 8:42am — No Comments
EURUSD fell sharply lower last week from 1.3415 which we believe it represents impulsive decline. As we know, impulses show direction of a trend or change in trend, so we think that EURUSD has reached a top and that pair is headed lower, minimum in three waves even if decline will be corrective. As such, we labeled first leg down as wave 1 followed by wave 2 which may already be underway. Ideally wave 2 will find resistance around 1.3250.
Added by Gregor Horvat on June 25, 2013 at 7:00am — No Comments
EURUSD reached new highs in this week around 1.3415 from where we have seen a sharp fall yesterday , clearly in impulsive fashion. As we know, impulses show direction of a trend or change in trend, so we think that EURUSD has reached a temporary top and that pair is headed lower, minimum in three waves even if decline will be corrective. We will be tracking A-B-C legs to the downside. Pair could hit 1.3150 in the next few trading days. …
EURUSD reached new high yesterday so we assume that wave 4 is already complete and that wave 5 is underway which has room for further gains, towards 1.3500 in sessions ahead. Meanwhile 1.3318 support must hold, otherwise we would assume that top is in place. From a larger perspective we need to keep in mind that wave 4 was a triangle and that triangle always occur prior to the final move of the larger pattern, which means that current leg up will sooner or later complete a bullish…Continue
Added by Gregor Horvat on June 19, 2013 at 7:51am — No Comments
Trading currencies via online trading platforms has given unique opportunity to retail Forex traders to execute their orders with real time rates so fast and accurate. Even by applying programmed strategies it might be done faster than manual actions to click on sell/buy (soft) buttons. Technology has a key role to make a fast -actually very fast- environment for FX traders.
In this environment opening and closing positions quickly is a popular method which is known in extreme cases…Continue
USDCAD fell sharply lower in this week from 1.0082 where pair formed a top of wave (c) as a part of a very tricky complex correction called an expanded flat. However, we need to respect the current price action which is looking impulsive to the downside. As such, we are tracking five waves down in wave C that could reach parity in the next few days, once corrective wave (iv) finds resistance, ideally around current 1.0100/1.0130 zone.…Continue
Added by Gregor Horvat on May 3, 2013 at 9:02am — No Comments
I was thinking into issuing a blog post to encourage members to blog here as we are experiencing a drop in the number of members blogging and making comments while overall traffic to the site is more or less in the same levels that were before February spike and afterwards spam attack.
I will do that post later on the day, but back to the story.... I was thinking in how to do that blog post while I saw a comment from our dear member Daologic.