All Blog Posts Tagged 'FOMC' (158)

Market outlook ahead of FOMC rate decision Oct 29 2014 !

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement is the primary tool the panel uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy, It contains the outcome of the vote on interest rates, discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the nearest future.

The FOMC announcement will be today at  18:00 GMT .  They are  expected to leave policy rates unchanged-with fed funds at range of zero to 0.25 percent,  there was some talk about a minority expand…

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Added by Haitham653 on October 29, 2014 at 7:38am — No Comments

Rabobank about first FOMC rate hike

"US personal income and spending in August were much better than a month earlier. In nominal terms, personal income grew by 0.3% and spending by 0.5%. In the same report, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation was published: the PCE deflator fell to 1.5% year-on-year, from 1.6%. The consensus expectation was 1.4%, so the slide in inflation was smaller than had been feared. The core PCE deflator remained unchanged at 1.5%. The fall in inflation has led to several Fed doves asking for…

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Added by Daologic on September 30, 2014 at 8:21am — No Comments

RBS: Trading Strategy

"A smaller than expected tLTRO take-up and largely unchanged FOMC language wasn't sufficient to squeeze EUR/USD higher as we had expected, so we square tactical long EUR/USD exposure. We continue to hold strategic shorts looking for a move to 1.27 or below by year-end and 1.22 by mid-2015 as negative nominal rates are a powerful medium-term EUR negative. While the dust settles post the Scottish referendum we keep our GBP powder dry, but will look to sell EUR/GBP rallies. Data surprises may…

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Added by Daologic on September 22, 2014 at 5:58am — No Comments

TD:FOMC

"The FOMC will be the global focus on Wednesday as investors look to whether the Fed continues to pivot toward the first rate hike. Key points to watch at the meeting will be whether the “considerable time” phrase is removed from the statement, how aggressive the Fed’s hike projections are (in the Summary of

Economic Projections for the 2015-2017 period) and Yellen’s tone in the post-meeting press conference. We also expect the FOMC to discuss their updated exit strategy, potentially…

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Added by Daologic on September 17, 2014 at 10:51am — No Comments

Deutsche Bank:FOMC minute (Early Morning reid-Macro Strategy)

"There seems to be a fair amount of anxiousness ahead of today’s FOMC minutes but European investors will have to wait until after the market close for their release (7pm London). DB’s Joe Lavorgna expects the minutes to reveal a more hawkish side to the FOMC than has been presented from Yellen’s recent public commentary. Judging by the trading patterns on previous FOMC minutes days, the minutes have been a bridge between the…

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Added by Daologic on July 9, 2014 at 8:25am — 1 Comment

TD: Morning FX Outlook-USD Remains Under Pressure

"The USD is still trying to make up for the ground it lost yesterday following the release of a very disappointing Q1 GDP revision.

(...)

Against the backdrop of yesterday's GDP surprising further tumble, even an on consensus PCE core…

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Added by Daologic on June 26, 2014 at 1:10pm — No Comments

Rabobank: More of the same

"Last night's FOMC meeting and accompanying press conference managed to address the old question, "What do you give the market who already has everything?": the answer appears to be "more of the same." In short, the Fed managed to navigate through what some had expected to be a potentially tricky announcement by providing further fuel for both equity and Treasury market bulls - quite an achievement given both are already at levels that leave skeptics perplexed; the S&P closed at a new…

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Added by Daologic on June 19, 2014 at 7:31am — No Comments

Rabobank:We expect the Committee to taper its asset purchase program by another USD10billion to USD35 billion.

"(...)

We expect the Committee to taper its asset purchase program by another USD10billion to USD35 billion. In the accompanying statement we expect substantial revisions of the economic projections of FOMC participants. While the Committee is likely to reduce its GDP forecast for 2014, the expected downward revision of unemployment and upward revision of inflation are likely to lead to a hawkish shift in policy rate projections. After all, if labor market slack has decreased faster…

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Added by Daologic on June 18, 2014 at 7:21am — No Comments

RBS:All eyes on Yellen's press conference

"The Fed Chair's press conference is the key vehicle through which the Fed has conveyed key details on policy direction. The communication strategy is that the conference is intended to convey the balance of opinion of the FOMC (not the personal opinion of the Chair, in this case Yellen). Last year, Bernanke gave guidance on the timing of the Fed's taper. Yellen may be compelled to begin to guide the market on the timing and pace of interest rate hikes, just as BoE Governor Carney did at his…

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Added by Daologic on June 18, 2014 at 5:12am — No Comments

RBS:Moving up and down the curves supports the USD

"As we approach the FOMC minutes we see increasing risk that recent yield rises in the US could filter down the curve and recent yield falls in the Eurozone could filter up the curve. We already see the deep falls in the EUR/USD yield spread as sufficient to support a developing downtrend in the EUR and expect further yield moves to generate a case for a lower EUR. Similarly, we note yield spreads moving in favour of the USD/JPY. There is a range of other distractions that may delay…

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Added by Daologic on June 17, 2014 at 6:00am — No Comments

BBH: FOMC's subtle change in forward guidance

"When the Federal Reserve meets this week, there is little doubt of the outcome. This deflects investors’ attention from a change in policy to a change in the forward guidance, subtle and otherwise.  The Fed will likely indicate that its highly accommodative stance is still needed.  It seems to want that to be the main take-away.  However, what will likely be evident from the…

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Added by Daologic on June 16, 2014 at 11:22am — No Comments

Rabobank: 17-18 FOMC forecast

"The primary economic focus for the week will be the June 17-18 FOMC. This meeting will include an update of the economic projections and a press conference by Chair Janet Yellen on Wednesday. We expect the Committee to taper its asset purchase program by another $10bn, evenly split between US treasuries and agency MBS. This would reduce the purchases of treasuries in July to $20bn (from$25bn) and the purchases of agency MBS to $15bn (from $20bn). This will bring the total monthly amount of…

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Added by Daologic on June 16, 2014 at 8:30am — No Comments

UBS - This Week's Key Points: US core PCE inflation will become increasingly important

UBS - "In the week ahead, US April core PCE inflation will show whether the Federal Reserve needs to consider earlier tightening. In contrast, Japan's national CPI release will test the Bank of Japan's resolve to keep its current pace of quantitative easing unchanged and Eurozone M3 money supply is likely to show credit growth remaining too subdued to revive inflation quickly in the Eurozone. The dollar is set to keep gaining as the Federal Reserve tapers its balance sheet expansion while…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on May 26, 2014 at 9:17am — 1 Comment

Week 21 trading stubs, week ahead

Recap

EUR/USD setup posted last week got completed and is still valid at the moment. Having said that, the traders with shorter stops may have been taken out at this point as selling continued last week before seeing signs of reversal @1.367's level. Commitment Of Traders report revealed shift for EUR since a long time, net short positions outweighed long for non-commercials (hedge…

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Added by FuturesMO on May 19, 2014 at 2:00pm — No Comments

UBS - This week's key points for currencies: ECB speakers to keep euro a sell on rallies

UBS - "Financial markets are giving out inconsistent signals. A firmer yen, stronger Treasuries and bunds, weaker Eurozone peripheral bonds and lower stocks point to increased risk aversion. But the Swiss franc is weakening while commodity currencies are stable. The major currencies are more likely still to be driven by shifts in monetary policy. The Federal Reserve is set to keep tapering, helping the dollar recover from this year's lows. The likelihood of European Central Bank easing next…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on May 19, 2014 at 10:08am — No Comments

UBS - This week's key points for currencies: A Key Week For The Dollar

UBS - "The dollar continues to trade at weak levels against the euro, pound and Swiss franc as the Federal Reserve is still printing money and buying bonds. In the week ahead the Federal Open Market Committee is likely to taper its asset purchases by another $10bn to $45bn a month. We expect the greenback to rise across the board as the end of quantitative easing comes into sight by the autumn. But this month's FOMC decision may only provide marginal support to the dollar as the Fed will…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on April 28, 2014 at 9:19am — No Comments

UBS - This Week's Key Points: Dollar oversold on FOMC minutes

UBS - "In the week ahead, Fed Chair Yellen makes two public appearances while US retail sales, CPI inflation, industrial production and the New York and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing surveys are released. The greenback has been held back in Q1'14 by weather-affected data. But the US economy is likely to record stronger prints in Q2'14 as the latest weekly jobless claims numbers show. That will increase the risk of the dollar recovering from its current weak levels. This week's key points…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on April 14, 2014 at 10:58am — No Comments

UBS FX Comment - Pain, Positioning and Policymakers

"The pain trade in the currency markets is the renewed weakness of the dollar against the euro, yen, Swiss franc and Australian dollar. Despite US jobless claims falling to its lowest levels since 2007, the greenback has been sold since March's Federal Open Market Committee minutes were published. In the very near term dollar longs may still be cut. But the market's position adjustment is also painful for policymakers outside the US seeking weaker domestic currencies against the greenback.…

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Added by Daologic on April 14, 2014 at 5:30am — No Comments

BBH MarketView: ECB Action: Just a Matter of Time?

"ECB Action:  Just a Matter of Time?

The Managing Director of the IMF and the chief economist are making no bones about it. More action by the ECB is inevitable. It is "just a question of timing," says Lagarde and "sooner was better than later", chimed…

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Added by Daologic on April 11, 2014 at 2:30pm — 1 Comment

Deutsche Bank - Early Morning Reid - Macro Strategy

"The yo-yo year continues as the S&P 500 last night sold off sharply (-2.09%) to yet again cross into negative territory for the year. We can't help thinking that as it becomes ever clearer that the Fed is pretty much fixed in its determination to stop QE late this year, the oxygen that has fuelled the 5 year bull market is slowly draining out of the market. Clearly the Fed is still…

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Added by Daologic on April 11, 2014 at 8:30am — No Comments

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