UK released the first estimate of GDP on Tuesday, showing a disappointing 0.5% growth (consensus 0.6%). The annual growth of UK is 2.6%, which is a big miss from the November Inflation Report estimation, which is 3.5%. It also confirmed that UK lost the crown of being the fastest growing G7 economies, with US beating her with 3% annual growth. The service sector in UK is still the most contributing segment to the whole UK economic growth, while industrial output and construction did nothing…Continue
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement is the primary tool the panel uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy, It contains the outcome of the vote on interest rates, discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the nearest future.
The FOMC announcement will be today at 18:00 GMT . They are expected to leave policy rates unchanged-with fed funds at range of zero to 0.25 percent, there was some talk about a minority expand…Continue
Added by Haitham653 on October 29, 2014 at 7:38am — No Comments
UBS - "In the week ahead, US April core PCE inflation will show whether the Federal Reserve needs to consider earlier tightening. In contrast, Japan's national CPI release will test the Bank of Japan's resolve to keep its current pace of quantitative easing unchanged and Eurozone M3 money supply is likely to show credit growth remaining too subdued to revive inflation quickly in the Eurozone. The dollar is set to keep gaining as the Federal Reserve tapers its balance sheet expansion while…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 26, 2014 at 9:17am — No Comments
EUR/USD setup posted last week got completed and is still valid at the moment. Having said that, the traders with shorter stops may have been taken out at this point as selling continued last week before seeing signs of reversal @1.367's level. Commitment Of Traders report revealed shift for EUR since a long time, net short positions outweighed long for non-commercials (hedge…Continue
Added by FuturesMO on May 19, 2014 at 2:00pm — No Comments
UBS - "Financial markets are giving out inconsistent signals. A firmer yen, stronger Treasuries and bunds, weaker Eurozone peripheral bonds and lower stocks point to increased risk aversion. But the Swiss franc is weakening while commodity currencies are stable. The major currencies are more likely still to be driven by shifts in monetary policy. The Federal Reserve is set to keep tapering, helping the dollar recover from this year's lows. The likelihood of European Central Bank easing next…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 19, 2014 at 10:08am — No Comments
UBS - "The dollar continues to trade at weak levels against the euro, pound and Swiss franc as the Federal Reserve is still printing money and buying bonds. In the week ahead the Federal Open Market Committee is likely to taper its asset purchases by another $10bn to $45bn a month. We expect the greenback to rise across the board as the end of quantitative easing comes into sight by the autumn. But this month's FOMC decision may only provide marginal support to the dollar as the Fed will…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 28, 2014 at 9:19am — No Comments
UBS - "In the week ahead, Fed Chair Yellen makes two public appearances while US retail sales, CPI inflation, industrial production and the New York and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing surveys are released. The greenback has been held back in Q1'14 by weather-affected data. But the US economy is likely to record stronger prints in Q2'14 as the latest weekly jobless claims numbers show. That will increase the risk of the dollar recovering from its current weak levels. This week's key points…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 14, 2014 at 10:58am — No Comments
UBS - "The foreign exchange markets reacted to America's March employment report by favouring higher-yielding emerging markets and commodity currencies. But US data is unlikely to remain 'not too hot' to spur fears of Federal Reserve tightening and 'not too cold' to raise concerns about the recovery. Instead Friday's payrolls report clearly showed America's economy emerging from the winter slowdown. The Fed is thus on track to finish tapering its bond purchases by the autumn, raising the…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 8, 2014 at 10:37am — No Comments
When FED said for the first time the “taper” word – in May 2013 – the most hit economies were India and Brazil. Of course even the other emerging economies suffered too but not with the same intensity. I am sure all of you remember the 2013’s summer.
I have to say that in my opinion the FOMC statement saying that FED will start from January 2014 to reduce their bond buying program with $10 billion/month is the best Christmas gifts investors could receive from a central bank. And not because of the new trading opportunities but mostly due the certainty this statement brought into the market. Starting May 2013 when Bernanke said for the first time that FED might reduce the QE3, the market was dominated by UNCERTAINTY: one day the…Continue
Added by Arenoosh on December 20, 2013 at 2:24pm — No Comments
UBS - "The Federal Reserve meets in the week ahead. The FOMC could surprise by agreeing to taper asset purchases, by revising its forecasts higher as America's fiscal outlook improves, by lengthening its forward guidance to signal interest rates will remain on hold for longer or by cutting the interest the Fed pays on excess reserves held at the central bank. The range of possible outcomes presents upside and downside risks to the dollar in the near term. In the longer-term the strengthening…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on December 16, 2013 at 2:43pm — No Comments
UBS - "Financial markets expect the Federal Reserve will continue purchasing $85bn a month of assets until its March 18-19 Open Market Committee meeting. Friday's employment report showed November payrolls growth again exceeded 200k. But the dollar lost ground against the euro, pound, Swiss franc and commodity currencies while the S&P rose 1.1% to 1805. Stronger growth prospects supported the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Expectations the Fed will still delay tapering pushed the…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on December 10, 2013 at 12:26pm — No Comments
Rabobank - "EUR/USD: A weaker euro would be supportive for growth in peripheral Europe.
However, not all currencies can be simultaneously weak and the EUR is losing the battle. Insofar as the market remains obsessed with the timing of Fed tapering, threats of further policy action from the ECB are proving to have limited power over the direction of EUR/USD. Not only that, but the strength of Germany’s external sector and current account remains a source of strength for the EUR. The…
Added by Francesc Riverola on December 4, 2013 at 11:04am — No Comments
UBS - "In the week ahead, most of the Fed's doves including Chairman Bernanke, New York Fed President Dudley, current FOMC voting members Evans, Rosengren and Bullard, and non-voting FOMC member Kocherlakota - are scheduled to speak. In addition, the October 29-30 FOMC meeting minutes will be released. Together, the upcoming communications will provide more insight into whether policymakers are willing to consider tapering as early as the December 17-18 FOMC meeting.
Added by Francesc Riverola on November 18, 2013 at 12:01pm — No Comments
This morning I woke up to this. As of 08:20 EST, the descending trend-line drawn from the September 6, 2013 highs has been violated in force with this daily candle. If the data this morning continues in favor of the USD, the next theoretical supply zone is 0.9180 where I have drawn…Continue
Added by Jason Justin Macko on November 1, 2013 at 12:30pm — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "My base case it that the Fed kicks off with a 10bn taper, 5 each for Tsy and MBS; this firms up the full taper projection. Our economists are calling for a 20bn taper. But our Treasury trader pointed out that this is per quarter. It makes sense that the Fed begins to use its quarterly full forecast/press conference meetings to announce QE taper steps, rather than adjusting every meeting. This gives them decent increments to assess the economic growth outlook between…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 18, 2013 at 7:49am — No Comments
Brown Brothers Harriman - "In the first part of next week, ahead of the FOMC meeting, we expect a generally firmer dollar. It seems to be a much more forgivable to be long dollars ahead of the decision that has been awaited for a third of the year than to be short dollars. That said, we suspect the dollar may weaken after the FOMC decision. The Fed is more likely to do less rather than more relative to market expectations.
That sell-off can extend into the end of the week. However, we…
Rabobank - "Late August brought signs that the market was taking renewed interest in the USD. This was largely the result of a step-up in risk stemming from Syria which resulted in an increase in demand for a safe-haven. Over the coming months developments in the mid-East could continue to impact the direction of the USD. That said, the USD is also likely to be heavily influenced by economic developments and in particular the policy decisions taken by the FOMC. CFTC data suggest that…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 4, 2013 at 4:21pm — No Comments
UBS - "The dollar index DXY remains at the bottom of its 81-85 summer trading range. Ten year US Treasury yields have traded through 2.80% for the first time in two years as America's economy continues to recover. But stronger Eurozone and UK data at the same time is preventing the dollar benefiting from the dovish stance of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.
Nevertheless, we think the Federal Reserve's policymaking remains the key driver of foreign exchange markets. With…
Added by Francesc Riverola on August 20, 2013 at 11:25am — No Comments
ING Bank - "The Fed’s campaign to reinforce a message that tapering is not tightening has seen the USD hand back the gains that by early July had, on some measures, taken it to its highest level for three years. Yet we feel that its recent weakening needs to be placed in the context of a USD that is still well within the ranges established so far in 2013. Our base case remains very much for the USD to enjoy a strong recovery into year-end, even if the catalyst for its gains is in danger of…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on August 15, 2013 at 11:19am — No Comments