1. Strong payrolls would spark sharp dollar rally
In our view the dollar has reached a major turning point against the
euro. Since the summer of 2012 the single currency has traded from 1.20
to almost 1.40 as the Federal Reserve's third round of quantitative
easing led to its balance sheet expanding while at the same time the
ECB's contracted through banks repaying Longer-Term Refinancing
Operation loans. But the Fed's balance sheet expansion is now…
Added by Daologic on March 31, 2014 at 6:39am — No Comments
The EURSD continued its bearish correction last week , but fall from 1.3966 levels was temporary – halted by the key support 1.3706 as suggested , as a result ; outlook in EURUSD remains neutral with risk to the upside , note that stability above the 1.3706/1.3748 levels could mean a return to the 1.3915/1.3965 levels , break of 1.3850 levels will build pressure on the 1.3915/1.3965 levels . If this important resistance is taken out , expect the pair to extend gains towards the 1.4035…Continue
This week I evaluated the Daily chart types with the Metatrader 4 platform
GOLD: Some of our readers have asked us if it was time to buy GOLD upward , saw the rebound and made the recent return bearish. As can be seen from the graph of the video prices are back below the average 200 times and the indicator We-Point alerted us to a possible new downtrend. So do not recommend to buy the upside. E ' can instead try a fall with stop loss to 1316…Continue
Added by Lorenzo Sentino on March 29, 2014 at 12:30pm — No Comments
EURUSD rebounded in the early part of the past week, much as we expected it might after the consolidation late the week before. But despite a very powerful rally Monday (outside range day), the gains did not have any staying power and the EUR traded softly over the balance of the week, falling to test the 40-day…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 29, 2014 at 6:30am — No Comments
"USD: Data Dependency | The FOMC meeting last week continued the transition away from explicit forward guidance and toward full data dependency. But the follow-through in the USD remains lacklustre, despite the move higher in US short-term interest rates. The March 19th FOMC decision was seen as hawkish largely because switching to pure data dependence means the Fed will ultimately have to react if economic indicators come in stronger…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 29, 2014 at 5:40am — No Comments
"UK & Europe
Added by Daologic on March 28, 2014 at 10:27am — No Comments
“When you have found your niche, you don’t need discipline to do the right things; you won’t want to do anything else” Brett Steenbarger, trading author and coach.
Yesterday we had an impressive drop in USDCAD. Having broken triangle resistance…Continue
Added by Gary on March 28, 2014 at 9:30am — No Comments
The NZDUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday , bottomed at the 0.8585 levels , and topped at the 0.8685 levels . This development leaves the pair targeting the 0.8735 levels where a breach will turn focus on the 0.8800 levels , further upside will aim the 0.8850 levels.
On the downside , support comes at the 0.8640 levels ahead of the 0.8585 levels (main) , losing this level on a daily closing basis , would weaken the current bullish for retesting the 0.8500 levels before the…Continue
Added by Haitham653 on March 28, 2014 at 7:28am — No Comments
Recommendations: SHORT positions below 1.3778 with 1.3720 & 1.3690 as next targets.
Alternative scenario: The upside breakout of 1.3778 will call for a rebound to 1.3827/45.
Description: Intraday outlook in EURUSD remains on the downside as long as resistance 1.3778 holds , support comes at the 1.3720 levels , a halt could be seen , but a break would open 1.3693 levels , further downside will aim the 1.3660/1.3640…Continue
The break above declining resistance (1.3825) raised the potential for a near-term range flip to 1.4050, if
not a broader retracement to the 1.4425-50 area. Although not (yet) negated, this potential is under threat.
The failure to hold above the previous resistance level of 1.3825 raises concern that an…
Added by Daologic on March 28, 2014 at 5:51am — No Comments
“Limiting losses is by far the most important trading component. Capital is the inventory of a trader. Lose the inventory, business is over”. Peter Brandt, commodities and forex trader.
First of all the technicals. USDCAD recently broke the triangle…Continue
Added by Gary on March 27, 2014 at 10:45am — No Comments
The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday , topped at the 1.3827 levels , and bottomed at the 1.3778 levels. This development leaves the pair targeting the 1.3748 levels where a breach is likely , If seen , It will target the 1.3720 levels , a halt is strongly suggested , but losing the 1.3720 levels will open 1.3642 levels , further downside will aim the 1.3585 levels.
On the upside , a failure to hold below the 1.3778 levels could mean a return to the 1.3827 levels ahead…Continue
"FX Set-up: Teflon-coated EUR…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 26, 2014 at 11:20am — No Comments
“If you are the best, you don’t have to worry about money; it comes flying through the window.” Mark Minervini
Right now the currency markets seem to have taken a back seat to the equity markets who are in search of all-time highs again.…Continue
Added by Gary on March 26, 2014 at 10:49am — No Comments
Recommendations (1): SHORT positions below 1.3845 with 1.3800 & 1.3770 as next targets.
Alternative scenario: The upside breakout of 1.3845 will open 1.3900/1.3965 levels.
Recommendations (2): LONG positions above 1.3748 with 1.3810 & 1.3845 as next targets.
Alternative scenario: The downside breakout of 1.3748 will call for a slide to 1.3720/07.
FX Set-up: EURUSD—Fade the Gains…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 25, 2014 at 11:30am — No Comments
“If you find yourself getting panicky, you are probably holding positions that are too big, and you might want to pare them down to the level where the panic goes away”. Ari Kiev, Trading Coach
So not an easy market to get to grips with at the moment and what has…Continue
Added by Gary on March 25, 2014 at 9:31am — No Comments
EURUSD found a support yesterday and turned up above 1.3870 that can be a bullish signal, but for confirmation it's too soon as rally from 1.3745 is not in five waves. For now it's in three legs so it can either be start of an impulsive structure or wave (x) of a complex correction. In either case we have to wait more time as pair is still sideways on "no man's land". We however prefer the bullish scenario because of the larger trend that is still up, but based on current wave structure…Continue
Added by Gregor Horvat on March 25, 2014 at 8:50am — No Comments
Recommendations : LONG positions above 1.3792 with 1.3870 & 1.3900 as next targets.
Alternative scenario: The downside breakout of 1.3792 will call for a slide to 1.3750/06.
Description: The EURUSD has broken above the key resistance 1.3845 , Intraday outlook turns from neutral to bullish , support comes at the 1.3792 levels , stability above this level will keep pushing towards the 1.3870 levels , a…Continue
"US Money Market Rates are Rising, Lending Dollar Support
US money market rates are rising today, extending the increase last week spurred by the FOMC meeting and comments by Fed chief Yellen.…
Added by Daologic on March 24, 2014 at 5:12pm — No Comments