Brown Brothers Harriman - "The Dollar-Index did rally in the second half of last week, but ran into a wall of offers near 82.50 a key retracement objective of the previous week's drop. Provided this area holds, we are more inclined to see it fall toward 81.20 and maybe 80.70.
The decline in the euro in the second half of last week largely held a trend line drawn off the April 4 and April 24 lows. The trend line comes in near $1.3070 on Monday and $1.3125 by the end of next week. Initial…
Royal Bank of Scotland - "EUR/USD looks like a Sideways for Longer trade. For much of this year, core Euro yields have fallen faster than Treasury yields. That probably changes with the ECB.
But more prolonged Fed balance sheet expansion keeps dollar debasement on markets’ minds; also, we anticipate more, inexorable, compression in periphery spreads and (near term) further gains in stocks. All of which keeps EUR supported. Multi month, we maintain a EUR/USD sub 1.20 view. But that…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 6, 2013 at 9:04am — No Comments
Recommendations: LONG positions above 1.2954 with 1.3130 & 1.3315 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The downside breakout of 1.2954 will call for a slide to 1.2775/1.2600.
Description: With the key support 1.2954 intact, rebound from 1.2745 still in progress and may extend beyond 1.3242 levels, break of 1.3242 will target 1.3318 levels, a daily close above 1.3318…
Societé Generale - "The consensus calls for a modest 140,000 increase in non-farm payrolls. In the US Treasury market, the mood is to sell into a post-data rally. Equity investors would love a dip to buy into and unless we see a significantly worse than expected figure, we're going to make an assault on 1600. I wouldn't even rule out the FX equivalent - a final push to and through USD/JPY 100.
Commodities have bounced and the mood is positive, but I'd still like to keep some bearish FX…
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "The ECB decision yesterday is very much the focus of the market today ahead of the key non-farm payrolls data from the US later. The 0.25 point cut and measures to be detailed helping to improve the asset-backed securities market in order to improve credit flows to the real economy were the key actions announced but it was the admission that the ECB had an “open mind” to cutting the deposit rate to negative territory that grabbed all the attention. Was this…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 3, 2013 at 9:00am — No Comments
USD gained against major currencies on Thursday. Asian session open with some corrective moves as USD lost some of its gain. Once corrective move completes expect USD to gain further strength . Considering NFP Caution is advised for Intraday Traders
NFP – Considering current…Continue
Added by Sardar Uddin on May 3, 2013 at 8:30am — No Comments
Westpac - "Dollar Index survived a test of important support around 81.40/50 as USD’s safe haven status came to the fore. But if the dollar trades the employment report as a growth currency, it could be in some trouble as the risks look to be for another sub-consensus reading. Then we have the post-NFP data lull. We will retain our 83 one month target for now but suspect achieving this will be heavily reliant on EUR weakness.
(...) Eurozone bond markets are pricing in a great deal of…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 2, 2013 at 1:27pm — No Comments
Deutsche Bank - "We think there's one EUR driver that matters and two that don't in coming months. We don't think ongoing strength in Euro peripheral fixed income matters.
(...) We don't think a potential ECB refi cut today matters much either.
(...) In contrast to the above, we do think Eurozone disinflation risks (and how the ECB responds) matter. The ECB primary mandate has fallen out of focus in recent years, best reflected in the steadily declining mention of "price stability"…
UBS - "USDJPY NEUTRAL The latest setback does not change the broader bullish picture as long as strong support at 95.80 holds. Initial resistance is at 98.20 ahead of the psychological 100.00.
GBPUSD BULLISH The pair posts new recovery high and tested the critical resistance at 1.5606, a closing break above this would open 1.5689. Support is at 1.5468.
USDCHF BEARISH There is a critical support at 0.9207 ahead of 0.9150. Near-term resistance is at 0.9310 ahead of 0.9384.
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 2, 2013 at 10:17am — No Comments
Recommendations: LONG positions above 1.3147 with 1.3190 & 1.3240 as next targets.
Alternative scenario: The downside breakout of 1.3147 will call for a slide to 1.3115/1.3070.
Description: The pair finds support at 1.3147 level, above this level look for further upside gains towards 1.3190/1.3240 levels, an hourly close below 1.3147 will reverse risks to the downside and open the way towards…
As shown on the 1 hour chart posted below, the EURUSD has formed a breakout pattern, support at 1.3167, resistance at 1.3224, an hourly close above 1.3224 will advance the pair further higher towards 1.3280/1.3335 levels, while an hourly close below 1.3167 will open the way to 1.3115/1.3060 levels.
Recommendation 1 # : Buying the pair with an hourly closing above 1.3224 targeting 1.3280 and 1.3335 levels, stop loss below 1.3167 levels.
Recommendation 2 # : Selling…Continue
The EURUSD corrected higher this week, after the daily close above 1.3083 levels as suggested in my -weekly report - but the pair failed to make a daily close above 1.3189/201 levels , and a short term top is under development at 1.3242 levels, a daily close back below 1.3116 levels will confirm topping and open the way towards 1.2972 ahead of 1.2900 levels, below 1.2745 will target 1.2661/1.2625 levels where rebound is suggested , but losing 1.2625 will bring a free fall below 1.2500…Continue
Rabobank - "Insofar as the market has built up heavy USD long positions there is risk that the USD correction still has a long way to go. That said, clearly a lot of risk lies with the tone of US economic data. To date, it seems likely that the fiscal consolidation measures that have been announced in the US since the start of the year haven’t yet has an opportunity to show up in much of the official economic data. This also suggests that the USD’s pullback will have further to run.
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 1, 2013 at 10:16am — No Comments
EURUSD moved sharply higher yesterday and closed well above 1.3127 swing high as well as above upper base channel line. Thats a very important evidence for further EURUSD gains, this time through 1.3200 followed by a 1.3300. In the very near term, we expect to see 1.3220 where prices may slow down in black wave 4. Meanwhile traders should keep an eye on 1.3052 level as long it will hold, market is bullish.…Continue
Added by Gregor Horvat on May 1, 2013 at 8:09am — No Comments
Societé Generale - "Ive spent the morning pondering the ECB and I've run out of coffee so here is as far as I've got! At the last count, 12 of 39 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect a 25bp cut. Far more expect 'something'. At least one person on twitter has suggested a 50bp move. Market rates have fallen sharply, peripheral spreads have tightened, credit spreads ditto. The market is bulled-up and hoping for something, then! the risk of disappointment is severe, but (always an 'on the…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 30, 2013 at 1:16pm — No Comments
The EURUSD halted its short term weakness from the 13201 levels at 1.2954 the past week, the break of 1.3083 levels suggests further upside gains in the upcoming days, It will have to follow through higher in the risk of return to the 1.3201 levels ,a halt may be seen around or below this level, but If 1.3201 breaks , expect the pair to strengthen further towards the 1.3280/1.3318 levels where a breach will turn focus on the 1.3370/1.3433 levels.
On the downside ,to continue its…Continue
UBS - "This week the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will hold their next policy meetings. The recent data flow has been weaker in both America and the Eurozone. But stock markets have remained resilient. The Federal Open Market Committee looks set to continue with its third round of quantitative easing. The ECB's Governing Council is also likely to cut its benchmark refinance rate by 25bps to 0.50% according to UBS Economics.
In short, financial markets are betting that…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 29, 2013 at 5:07pm — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY NEUTRAL The latest setback does not change the broader bullish picture as long as strong support at 95.80 holds. Resistance is at the psychological 100.00.
GBPUSD BULLISH The pair posts new recovery high and is approaching resistance at 1.5550. The next major resistance is at 1.5606, a break above this would open 1.5689. Support is at 1.5419 ahead of 1.5361.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Support is at 0.9387, a move below would expose 0.9319. Near-term resistance is at 0.9457 ahead of…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 29, 2013 at 9:36am — No Comments
Recommendations: LONG positions above 124.97 with 131.10 & 134.50 as next targets.
Alternative scenario: The downside breakout of 124.97 will call for a slide to 118.70/114.50.
Description: The pair trades above its support at 124.97, above this level look for further upside gains towards 131.10 levels,a weekly close above this level will extend the bullish move towards 134.50 levels and possible…
Added by Haitham653 on April 29, 2013 at 9:12am — No Comments
Recommendations: LONG positions above 1.3060 with 1.3130 & 1.3160 as next targets.
Alternative scenario: The downside breakout of 1.3060 will call for a slide to 1.3010/1.2950.
Description: The pair trades above its resistance at 1.3060, above this level look for further upside gains towards 1.3120/1.3165 levels, an hourly close below 1.3060 will reverse risks to the downside and open the way…