TD Securities - "We think a tapering in the region of USD10bn is largely factored in and an outcome USD5 bn either side of that may not have that much impact. A dovish (very low or no taper) outcome would weigh on the USD but likely support risk assets and G-10 higher yielders. A more hawkish (USD15bn+) outcome would be broadly USD-supportive and likely push EUR/USD quickly back towards 1.30/1.31. A dovish taper would boost EUR/USD for a 1.3450 test."
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 18, 2013 at 12:05pm — No Comments
Recommendations: LONG positions above 1.3325 with 1.3385 & 1.3415 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The downside breakout of 1.3325 will call for a slide to 1.3285/242 .
Description: The pair trades above its support 1.3325, stability above this level will build a pressure on the 1.3385/1.3415 levels,break of 1.3415 will advance the pair towards the 13451 levels, further upside will aim the 1.3520 levels.On the downside ,…
TD Securities - "EUR/USD managed to move a little higher this week, after establishing a foothold above 1.32 Monday. This was in line with our expectations. More generally, however, there is still little sign of a strong trend developing here one way or the other; we are still essentially within a broad, 1.27/1.34 range. Short-term price signals suggest that the EUR is struggling a little around the 40-day MA and may see a softer bias through the early part of next week if minor support at…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 16, 2013 at 9:23am — No Comments
Brown Brothers Harriman - "In the first part of next week, ahead of the FOMC meeting, we expect a generally firmer dollar. It seems to be a much more forgivable to be long dollars ahead of the decision that has been awaited for a third of the year than to be short dollars. That said, we suspect the dollar may weaken after the FOMC decision. The Fed is more likely to do less rather than more relative to market expectations.
That sell-off can extend into the end of the week. However, we…
The EURUSD maintained some bullish momentum last week , support comes at the 1.3172 levels, since the the market failed to break below the 1.31712 levels, the pair pulled-back towards the 1.3324 levels.
On the upside, resistance is at the 1.3318 levels, break of this level will add strong bullish momentum to the pair, next resistance comes at the 1.3380, a breach will turn focus on the 1.3570 levels, further upside will aim the 1.3785 levels.
Recommendations: LONG positions above 1.3243 with 1.3325 & 1.3345 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The downside breakout of 1.3243 will call for a slide to 1.3189/155 .
Description: The pair trades above its support 1.3243, stability above this level will build a pressure on the 1.3325/1.3345 levels,break of 1.3345 will advance the pair towards the 1.3370/415 levels, further upside will aim the 1.3450 levels.On the…
The US stocks futures and the USD did not move much during Asian session while the US Bonds found some resistance. So markets did not change much, the USD remains under pressure, despite lower commodity market and metals.
The EURUSD appears to be trapped in another tight range, a sideways move in wave B before we see a break to a new high, most likely early next week.
Added by Gregor Horvat on September 13, 2013 at 8:59am — No Comments
The EURUSD continued to maintain its bullish momentum yesterday , topped at the 1.3324 levels and bottomed at the 1.3243 levels.Now pressure will be on the key resistance 1.3324.
The EURUSD will have to hold above the 1.3324 levels on a daily closing basis to push the market for further upside gains,If seen ,It will target the 1.3410/451 levels where a breach will turn focus on the 1.3520 levels , a breach will look for the 1.3620 levels, further upside will aim the 1.3710…
JP Morgan - "Last months failure to break c/B-wave at 1.3483/1.3521 (76.4 %/pivot) completed a classical zigzag countertrend rally which had been launched in April from 1.2746. That said the ground is prepared for a broader C-wave down to 1.2487/36 (C = A, int. 76.4 %, red scenario) which is expected to unfold in the classical 5-wave pattern. We however can't ignore the bullish blue scenario which keeps its right to exist as long as the potential wave 2 target at 1.2919 (minor 76.4 %) is not…Continue
Recommendations: LONG positions above 1.3222 with 1.3315 & 1.3345 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The downside breakout of 1.3222 will call for a slide to 1.3155/110 .
Description: The pair trades above its support 1.3222, stability above this level will build a pressure on the 1.3315/1.3345 levels,break of 1.3345 will advance the pair towards the 1.3370/415 levels, further upside will aim the 1.3450 levels.On the…
TD Securities - "EUR/USD weakness extended to a little below the 100/200-day moving averages this week (clustered around the 1.3145 area) but the market has recovered back through these benchmarks so far today after finding support right on the 50% retracement of the July/August rally at 1.3104. We don’t think the move down is complete but there is scope for a short- term correction if the market can get any sort of traction above 1.32 early next week. Given the well-defined trading range…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 9, 2013 at 10:17am — No Comments
Rabobank - "Since Friday’s US payrolls data failed to clarify the outlook for Fed tapering, it also failed to bring much fresh direction for EUR/USD. We remain of the view that the Fed will probably dip its toe in the tapering pond by announcing a USD10 bln reduction in the amount of its monthly asset purchases at the September 17-18 FOMC. We also maintain that as the US economy strengthens and the Fed gets its teeth into tapering that the USD will strengthen. That said, the lack of vigour…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 9, 2013 at 9:41am — No Comments
The EURUSD maintained some bearish momentum last week , printed a new resistance at the 1.3222 levels, and found a temporary support at the 1.3107.
On the the downside, stability below 1.3222 on a daily closing basis would add pressure on the 1.3107 levels, losing the 1.3107 will extend weakness towards the 1.3066, at this point I still expect a strong support from the 1.3066 levels to contain fall from 1.3451 and bring reversal , but losing 1.3066 will turn focus on the 1.2992…
The EURUSD maintained some bearish momentum last August , topped at the 1.3451 levels, bottomed at the 1.3172 levels, now pressure will be on the 1.3172 levels, the EURUSD will have to hold below the 1.3172 levels on a monthly closing basis to push the market for further downside losses, If seen,It will target the 1.2754 levels where a breach will turn focus on the 1.2625 levels, further more will aim the 1.2135 levels.
Alternatively, a failure to hold below the 1.3172 levels, could…
Recommendations: SHORT positions below 1.3155 with 1.3095 & 1.3065 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The upside breakout of 1.3155 will call for a rebound to 1.3222/55 .
Description: The pair trades below its resistance 1.3155, stability below this level will build a pressure on the 1.3095/1.3065 levels,break of 1.3155 on hourly closing basis would delay the bearish move for retesting 1.3222/1.3255 levels , but upside…
Added by Haitham653 on September 6, 2013 at 12:00pm — No Comments
TD Securities - "EURUSD Base Case
Rate Decision: 97%: We expect rates unchanged. The ECB will likely keep its easing bias, but there is no expectation of a rate cut.
EUR/USD should be fairly unresponsive remaining around preceding levels.
Opening Statement: 70%: Draghi delivers a similar statement to August, reiterating forward guidance as is. GDP forecasts for 2013/14 upgraded by around 0.1% while inflation forecasts left unchanged.
EUR/USD may drift higher but any initial…
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 5, 2013 at 8:00am — No Comments
Rabobank - "Late August brought signs that the market was taking renewed interest in the USD. This was largely the result of a step-up in risk stemming from Syria which resulted in an increase in demand for a safe-haven. Over the coming months developments in the mid-East could continue to impact the direction of the USD. That said, the USD is also likely to be heavily influenced by economic developments and in particular the policy decisions taken by the FOMC. CFTC data suggest that…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 4, 2013 at 4:21pm — No Comments
USDJPY is accelerating to the upside in this week after recent decisive push through the upper side of a larger triangle pattern which is important evidence for continuation of a larger uptrend. As such, we suspect that rally from 96.77 will unfold in five waves, which will be the first wave within larger bullish sequence. This first black wave 1 is still underway as we can see, but current sideways move above 99.00 looks corrective similar to one that took shape last week around 98.00…Continue
ANZ - "AUDUSD: Despite slipping below 0.8925, AUD managed to avoid an early slide into the longer-term 0.8550- 0.8675 target area.
Bias is swinging towards another squeeze into the 0.9250-0.9300 area, but bounces have faltered in front of the first perceived hurdle of 0.9050 (another lies at 0.9120). Any slip below 0.8925 could undermine upside potential again, leaving AUD at risk of an early slide. Even if the squeeze develops, it will still be seen as a selling…
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 4, 2013 at 7:58am — No Comments
Currently we are at 1.3174 and testing support. We are looking for a bearish continuation to the 0.786 fibo/S6 @1.3077-91.The average daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 82 pips.…Continue
Added by Scott Barkley on September 3, 2013 at 12:52pm — No Comments