Recommendations: SHORT positions below 1.3437 with 1.3370 & 1.3325 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The upside breakout of 1.3437 will call for a rebound to 1.3487/528 .
Description:As long as the pair trades below 1.3437, It will remain under negative pressure with risk towards the 1.3370 ahead of 1.3325 levels ,sustained break below 1.3325 will open 1.3190 ahead of 1.3104 levels.On the upside ; stability above 1.3437 on…
"We have been bullish €/$; we have been incorrect. Technical evidence says that the trend has turned bearish. Going forward bounces should be sold. The impulsive decline from 1.3835 resistance, coupled with the break of 1.3412/1.3452 support says the trend has turned. While allowing for a near term
bounce, gains should be seen as temporary and limited to 1.3452/1.3548 before resuming lower. Downside targets are seen to the 200d (now 1.3218), ahead of 16m channel support (now 1.3000)…
Added by Daologic on November 11, 2013 at 11:21am — No Comments
EURUSD NEUTRAL The recent weakness found support at 1.3293 and this
level prompted a mini rebound. Any recovery will be limited to
resistance at 1.3438 ahead of 1.3501.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Initial resistance is at 99.41, a break above which would
open 100.61. Support is at 97.62 ahead of 96.57.
GBPUSD BULLISH There's a strong support at 1.5894. While this holds,
there's scope for resumption of strength to break through resistance at
Added by Daologic on November 11, 2013 at 8:48am — No Comments
Euro: Convincingly violated the July-September up trend line and the 5-day moving average has crossed below the 20-day average. The US jobs data failed to drive the euro below the ECB-spurred lows, which correspond to a (50%) retracement of the rally since July (~$1.3290). The euro traded below its 100-day moving for the first…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 11, 2013 at 7:30am — No Comments
Recommendations: SHORT positions around 1.3485 with 1.3325 & 1.3190 as next target.
Alternative scenario:The upside breakout of 1.3546 will call for a rebound to 1.3650/832.
Description: The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum last week , but the pair was rejected from the key support 1.3325 , sustained break below 1.3325 would open 1.3104 levels, at this point I’d expect strong support above 1.3104 to contain downside from…
Royal Bank of Scotland - "EUR/USD FX– The currency pair has displayed very precise technical behaviours over the past few years; e.g. the targets from 2010 inverse head and shoulders (1.42 and 1.48) were reached accurately in 2010 and 2011 respectively; also the target from 2010-2011 H&S of 1.2037 was nearly the exact low of 2012. Now we have a 3rd inverse head and shoulders in play with the targets of 1.38 and 1.43. The first target was already tested a week ago and the recent selloff…Continue
"EUR/USD price action retains a weak bias through the close of the week, even though the market is showing signs of steadying around the 100-day MA. Loss of short-term (40-day) moving average and trend channel support this week, alongside the break under the 1.3450/60 high/low support zone—pivotal for the markets since mid-September’s break higher—all confer a negative undertone for price action. Short-term trend momentum signals are aligned across an array of the short-term studies…Continue
FX Set-up: Volatility Favours the JPY
The EUR plunged in response to the surprise ECB rate cut Thursday and we do not think there is significant scope for a rebound in the event of a NFP disappointment today. …Continue
Added by Daologic on November 8, 2013 at 12:21pm — No Comments
HSBC - "he ECB's surprise decision to lower interest rates will weaken the EUR, and this most likely is exactly what the central bank wants. Net exports have been the major driver of GDP growth over recent quarters, and the rise in EUR was increasingly threatening this engine of growth. Meanwhile, a lower EUR will also help push up inflation through higher import costs.
The ECB will hope this double-whammy of the exchange rate effect on growth and inflation will help curtail the…
Added by Francesc Riverola on November 7, 2013 at 4:20pm — No Comments
Markets are very slow at the start of the European sessions ahead of ECB and BoE rates decisions. From a technical point of view we see EURUSD still moving up in wave c of a corrective retracement so our bias is bearish but the intraday structure could see a spike up to 1.3560/1.3570 before going sharply lower. That is what technicals say, so maybe Draghi comments will be catalyst.
EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis1h…
Added by Gregor Horvat on November 7, 2013 at 9:00am — No Comments
Recommendations: LONG positions above 1.3487 with 1.3550 & 1.3588 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The downside breakout of 1.3487 will call for a slide to 1.3430/385 .
Description: Although the pair under pressure on the daily chart, but It finds bid at 1.3487 levels on smaller time frames , stability above this level on hourly basis would add pressure on the 1.3550/1.3588 levels , break of 1.3588 would open 1.3650 ahead of…
JP Morgan - "The latest and surprisingly low inflation numbers out of Europe sparked renewed rate cut fantasies which led to a sharp reversal of the EUR/USD up-trend. Confirmation that a new downtrend has been established and that higher targets at 1.3870, at 1.3977 and at 1.4259/83 (monthly Ichimoku-lagging/monthly trend/int. 76.4 %/pivot) are out of focus would however only be delivered via a break below 1.3462/52/29 (pivots/daily trend). Such a break would signal a B.-or 2nd-wave top in…Continue
Recommendations: SHORT positions below 1.3524 with 1.3472 & 1.3440 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The upside breakout of 1.3524 will call for a rebound to 1.3560/588 .
Description:As long as the pair trades below 1.3524, It will remain under negative pressure with risk towards the 1.3472 ,sustained break below 1.3472 will open 1.3385 ahead of 1.3325 levels.On the upside ; an hourly close above 1.3524 would delay the…
Recommendations: SHORT positions around 1.3650 with 1.3472 & 1.3325 as next target.
Alternative scenario:The upside breakout of 1.3832 will call for a rebound to 1.4025/280.
Description:The EURUSD failed to hold its gains above the weekly resistance 1.3785 and printed a new resistance at the 1.3832 levels, support comes at the 1.3472, losing this level would open 1.3325 levels,below 1.3325 would target 1.3104 levels.On the…
Recommendations: SHORT positions below 1.3870 with 1.3472 & 1.3104 as next target.
Alternative scenario:The upside breakout of 1.3870 will call for a rebound to 1.4025/375.
Description:Although the EURUSD broke above 1.3710 last month, but the pair failed to hold above the 1.3710 levels, the scenario suggests a big reversal might be on the way , support comes at the 1.3471 levels , losing this level on a monthly basis would…
The EURUSD maintained a strong bearish momentum yesterday , topped at the 1.3738 levels and bottomed at the 1.3574 levels, now pressure will be on the 1.3574 levels.The EURUSD will have to hold below the 1.3574 levels on a daily closing basis to push the market for further downside losses, If seen ,It will target the 1.3505 levels, a halt is suggested , but a breach will turn focus on the 1.3415 levels, further losses will aim the 1.3317 levels.
Alternatively, a failure to hold…
The Federal Reserve left its policy unchanged and maintains the current pace of bonds buying at $85 billion per month as they are still waiting on more evidences of economic improvement and stability. The USD was higher after the statement, but nothing significant and decisive yet.
The EURUSD touched 1.3700 but decline on the intraday charts cannot be counted impulsively, so we are still observing an a)-b)-c) retracement with possible ending diagonal at the end of the pattern. We…Continue
Added by Gregor Horvat on October 31, 2013 at 10:04am — No Comments
Recommendations: SHORT positions below 1.3740 with 1.3685 & 1.3650 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The upside breakout of 1.3740 will call for a rebound to 1.3770/810 .
Description:As long as the pair trades below 1.3740, It will remain under negative pressure with risk towards the 1.3685 ahead of 1.3650 levels, below 1.3650 would open 1.3615 ahead of 1.3567 levels.On the upside , break of 1.3740 on hourly basis would only…
The USD is not showing any clear direction for the near-term. Most of the pairs are very slow and sideways. On EURUSD we however still anticipate a reversal to the upside, but would need to see an impulse up to 1.3810 to make sure that correction is complete.
Added by Gregor Horvat on October 30, 2013 at 10:30am — No Comments
Recommendations: SHORT positions around 1.3770 with 1.3735 & 1.3685 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The upside breakout of 1.3809 will call for a rebound to 1.3870/935 .
Description:With the key resistance 1.3770/1.3809 intact , further downside is suggested , stability below 1.3740 will add pressure on the 1.3685 ahead of the 1.3650 levels.On the upside ; to resume its upside offensive , the pair needs to break and hold…
Added by Haitham653 on October 30, 2013 at 9:03am — No Comments