Hi, I would like to do this a weekly routine for my trading as like keeping a trade journal n sharing in this great community. As been a trend trader i love to watch overall picture from big to small, learned a good phrase recently "Trade Fx like a Sniper, not a machine gunner".
Looking forwards for more downside move on EU, as in monthly chart this pair show an approx 5 years of corrective phrase and now is the assumed Wave C have begin to rock on.…Continue
Added by Vincent Kuan on August 14, 2013 at 4:17am — No Comments
JP Morgan - "The decisive break above the first key-T-junction 1.3262 (minor 76.4 %) has put the odds in favor of the red scenario which is supposed to mark a c-wave top in the 1.3483 to 1.3521 (76.4 % on higher scale/pivot) target zone. Below, the market remains at great risk of at least performing a C- wave down to 1.2453 (C = A, red) whereas a failure below 1.3418 would even keep the door open for an internal 3rd wave decline to 1.2328 (wave 1’ x 1.618, green scenario).
Only a break…
Added by Francesc Riverola on August 13, 2013 at 4:09pm — No Comments
Societé Generale: "We use a short-term model based on a concept of quantile regression to identify the extremes that EUR/USD could reach. To understand what a quantile estimation is one should first look at a regression. A regression finds the mean estimate with a certain error assuming a normal world. This would be the same result found when minimizing the moment of the distribution. These moments define uniquely a normal distribution via the mean and variance.
A quantile model…
Danske Bank - "This week we present two strategies: Buy EUR/USD and sell Cash Gold:
EUR/USD – Above 1.3417 would confirm a trendline break for 1.3711
• Strategy Summary – Stay long or buy on dips for further gains to 1.3711. Suggest stopping and possibly reversing on a loss of 1.3188/1.3066.
Cash Gold – Forms a potential lower high below the broken trendline
• Strategy Summary – Look to sell for a decline towards the 1087.00-1030.80 region.…
Added by Francesc Riverola on August 12, 2013 at 11:46am — No Comments
EURUSD: the EURUSD corrected a lower bit last week after reaching 1.3400 levels, resistance is at 1.3366 levels , stability below this level on a 4 hour closing basis will build a pressure on the 1.3300/1.3265 levels, however; break of 1.3366 levels on a 4 hour closing basis is likely to expose 1.3415 levels and target 1.3450/500 levels.…
The EURUSD continued to maintain its bullish momentum last week , printed a critical support on the weekly chart at the 1.3230 levels, the EURUSD will have hold above the 1.3230 levels on a weekly closing basis to push the market for further upside gains, stability above the 1.3230 levels will build a pressure on the 1.3415 levels, break of 1.3415 will have large bullish implication towards 1.3710 , above 1.3710 will focus on the 1.4200 /1.4500 as well as 1.5000.
On the downside,…
As shown on the daily chart below the pair breached above the triangle last week , this scenario is likely to add pressure on the 1.3415 levels,a break will expose 1.3710 levels , If seen , the way will be paved to 1.4200/1.4500 levels.
Note that according to triangle on the daily/weekly chart, the assumed target is 1000 pips from the breakout point , so it's around 1.4300 levels..
On the weekly chart, we have the same triangle , but we also have a second bullish pattern…
Recommendations: LONG positions above 1.3327 with 1.3420 & 1.3450 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The downside breakout of 1.3327 will call for a slide to 1.3300/265.
Description: The pair trades above its support 1.3327, stability above this level will build pressure on the 1.3420/450 levels, losing 1.3327 on hourly closing basis would delay the bullish for retesting 1.3327/1.3265, but downside below 1.3327 is likely to…
Currently we are at 1.3361. We are looking for a bullish continuation to the Day chart target @ 1.3418. We are at a very tough resistance so may take some effort to break through. The average daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 88 pips.…Continue
Added by Scott Barkley on August 8, 2013 at 12:59pm — No Comments
Westpac - "EUR Bias: Risks building for a bigger topside break through 1.34, despite firming tapering expectations.
Likely decent German GDP and ZEW data vs probable spotty updates on US retail sales and the first of the Aug business surveys (odds of a second consecutive monthly surge seem low) should see EUR bought into dips for the week.
Note too that while tapering expectations have pushed bund-Tsy spreads out to 7 year wides,EUR/USD is more typically driven by…
Added by Francesc Riverola on August 8, 2013 at 9:42am — No Comments
Recommendations: LONG positions above 1.3300 with 1.3370 & 1.3420 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The downside breakout of 1.3300 will call for a slide to 1.3265/30.
Description: The pair trades above its support 1.3300, stability above this level will build pressure on the 1.3370/1.415 levels, losing 1.3300 on hourly closing basis would delay the bullish for retesting 1.3265/1.3230, but downside below 1.3300 is likely to…
The EURUSD continued to maintain its bullish momentum the past few days, yesterday the pair found bids at the 1.3265 levels, this development leaves the pair targeting the 1.3344 levels where a breach is likely, If seen ,it will turn focus on the 1.3415 levels, further break will aim the 1.3485 levels , next levels are 1.3615 ahead of 1.3710.
On the downside , main support is at 1.3265 levels , to neutralize the bullish attack , the pair needs to break and hold below the 1.3265…
UBS - "USDJPY NEUTRAL The recent sell-off is approaching the critical support at 96.75.A closing break below this will trigger further sell-off. Resistance is at 98.59 ahead of 99.95.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Sharp advance was seen since Friday, is held by the critical resistance at 1.5394. A closing break above this would be positive. Support is at 1.5281 ahead of 1.5213.
USDCHF BEARISH The pair is approaching the first support at 0.9229. A move below this would trigger further sell-off…
Added by Francesc Riverola on August 7, 2013 at 2:53pm — No Comments
Recommendations: LONG positions above 1.3230 with 1.3290 & 1.3340 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The downside breakout of 1.3230 will call for a slide to 1.3185/165
Description: The pair finds support above 1.3230 levels, stability above this level will keep strong pressure to the upside towards 1.3290 levels, break of 1.3290 on hourly closing basis is needed to attack 1.3340 levels above 1.3340 will attack 1.3370/410…
Currently we are at 1.3250 and looking for a bearish continuation to the S2 area @ 1.3207- the next target is the support At the S2 @ 1.3154. The average daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 88 pips.…Continue
Added by Scott Barkley on August 5, 2013 at 12:44pm — No Comments
Recommendations: LONG positions above 1.3257 with 1.3310 & 1.3340 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The downside breakout of 1.3257 will call for a slide to 1.3225/180
Description: The pair finds support above 1.3257 levels, stability above this level will keep strong pressure to the upside towards 1.3310 ahead of 1.3340, above 1.3340 will attack 1.3370/410 levels.On the downside , below 1.3257 would delay the bullish move,…
Last week has been on of the most critical weeks for the pair, we've witnessed 2 important and critical events :
1- The first event ,the pair has closed on monthly above 1.3242 levels , May 2013 high , this scenario is likely to bring strong bullish momentum in medium/long term view towards 1.3710 levels.
2- The second event, the pair has broken above the key resistance 1.3255 - 21 Jun 2013 high - on the daily chart , note that this level protects the key resistance…
The EURUSD maintained a bullish momentum last month topped at 1.3343 , closed at 1.3294 levels above 1.3242 May 2013 high,the monthly close above 1.3242 levels is likely to have large bullish implication towards the 1.3710 levels - Feb 2013 high, stability above 1.3343 levels on a weekly closing basis may recapture 1.3710 with a breach , next resistance is at the 1.4250 levels - Oct 2011 high ,followed by 1.4940 May 2011 high.
On the downside , support is at 1.2744 levels - Apr…
UBS - "EURUSD BULLISH Yesterday’s sharp sell-off is viewed as a correction to unwind the overextended upside extremes. With the bull trend intact, potential is for the pair to move above 1.3302 to test the key resistance at 1.3417. Support is at 1.3120.
USDJPY NEUTRAL The pair advanced from the strong support at 96.75. This strength is approaching the resistance at 100.02. A closing break above this would trigger further upside.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL With the MACD threatening to cross…
Added by Francesc Riverola on August 2, 2013 at 3:00pm — No Comments
Recommendations: SHORT positions below 1.3226 with 1.3170 & 1.3130 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The upside breakout of 1.3226 will call for a rebound to 1.3290/340
Description: The pair finds support at 1.3188 levels, but still vulnerable below 1.3226. an hourly close above 1.3226 will confirm support at 1.3188 and open the way towards 1.3290 - strong resistance - we might see rejection here, but break of 1.3290 will…