As shown on the daily chart of USDINDEX posted below, the pair is in extended bullish divergence after losing 81.97 levels, the first assumed target of the last drop (84.91/81.97) has not been achieved yet , so there's a room for more downside losses, but the pair is likely to retest (81.97 / 82.47) levels before attacking 81.20 levels ahead of 80.15 levels..
The second chart is for USDCHF pair, as shown on it below, the pair is also in extended bullish divergence exactly as…
National Australia Bank - "We remain short of AUD/USD from 0.9210 with a stop at 0.9350.
We have taken profit at 1.1469 on our short AUD/NZD position established at 1.1813.
EUR/USD is at the very top of the trading range we have been talking about for the last four weeks. In the absence of US data disappointments, look to fade this rally.
Our recommendation to buy USD/JPY at 100.29 proved to be a bad trade: either the wrong entry level, the wrong time, or both. We still expect…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 29, 2013 at 4:30pm — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BULLISH As the bull trend persists, indicated by the trending and momentum indicators pointing higher, focus is on further upside. Key resistance is at 1.3417. Support is at 1.3253 ahead of 1.3166
USDJPY NEUTRAL The sharp sell-off since Thursday faces a strong support at 96.75.A closing break below this would trigger further sell-off. Resistance is at 99.41 ahead of 100.87.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL The pair is testing the critical resistance at 1.5394, since Thursday. A closing…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 29, 2013 at 1:39pm — No Comments
JP Morgan - "The latest overshooting of the first key-T-junction 1.3262 (minor 76.4 %) is certainly challenging the wave 2 sub- count view which would most likely be replaced as favorite by the red scenario once daily trend line resistance at 1.3337 would also give way. Such a break would start favoring an extension into the next key-resistance barrier at 1.3483/1.3521 (76.4 % on higher scale/pivot) where the c- wave up in the red scenario would be expected to stall.
It would take a…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 29, 2013 at 1:26pm — No Comments
Brown Brothers Harriman - "Euro: The euro managed to push through the Bernanke-induced high set on July 11 just above $1.3200 and raced to $1.33 before running out of steam. After posting a seemingly bullish outside up day on Thursday (July 25), the euro consolidated in less than half a cent range before the weekend.
The euro has approached a downtrend line drawn off the 2011 high near $1.4940, the Feb 2013 high just above $1.3700, and June high a little above $1.34. It…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 28, 2013 at 9:02pm — No Comments
Rebound from 12755 levels continued last week towards 1.3296 levels, the daily close above 1.3255 levels opens the way towards 1.3330 ahead of 1.3420 levels, break of 1.3420 will extend gains towards 1.5600 levels, above 1.5600 may expose 1.3710 and target 1.3820 levels.
On the downside , as long as 1.3165 holds on a daily closing basis, rebound from 1.2755 is in progress and is likely to extend higher , below 1.3165 would delay the bullish move for retesting 1.3082, next support…
Recommendations: LONG positions above 1.3252 with 1.3300 & 1.3335 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The downside breakout of 1.3252 will call for a slide to 1.3215/1.3165
Description: The pair's already found support at 1.3252, as long as this level holds , It will try higher towards 1.3300 , ahead of 1.3330 levels, an hourly close below 1.3252 will reverse risks to the downside towards 1.3215/1.3165…
BMO Capital Markets - "Given the strong links between sovereign credits and their respective banking systems, we don’t feel the EUR can attract the same degree of capital inflows that a developed market currency would normally attract under a scenario of a rising rate advantage. Although better-than-expected economic data from across the bloc will provide support to the EUR in 2H 2013, we believe the ECB would have already been anticipating an improvement in conditions in Q3 and Q4 when it…Continue
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "The release of the euro-zone PMI surveys for July has provided further evidence that the euro-zone economy is regaining cyclical upward momentum. A return to modest economic growth for the euro-zone in the second half of 2013 now appears increasingly likely bringing an end to the prolonged period of recession. We assume that the euro-zone economy has still contracted modestly by around -0.1% in Q2, which would represent the seventh consecutive quarter of…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 25, 2013 at 4:15pm — No Comments
Recommendations: LONG positions above 1.3165 with 1.3235 & 1.3280 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The downside breakout of 1.3165 will call for a slide to 1.31115/1.3065
Description: The pair's already found support at 1.3165, as long as this level holds , It will try higher towards 1.3240 , ahead of 1.3280 levels, an hourly close below 1.3165 will reverse risks to the downside towards 1.3115/1.3065 levels.
The EURUSD maintained some bearish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.3255 and bottomed at 1.3175, now pressure is on the key support 1.3175, the EURUSD will have to hold below the 1.3175 levels on a daily closing basis to push the market for further downside losses ,If seen it will target the 1.3082 levels where a breach will turn focus on the 1.2992 levels.
Alternatively, a failure to hold below the 1.3175 levels could mean a return to the 1.3255 levels, break of 1.3255 will extend…
Goldman Sachs - "EUR/$: Our positive stance on the EUR is due to the stronger BBoP trend for the Euro area. In contrast to the weaker balance for the US, this structural imbalance implies a gradually weaker USD and a stronger EUR. Downside risk remains in the Euro area, with growth remaining weak and the ECB signaling that it expects to keep rates low, with a downward bias, for ‘an extended period’. However in the longer run – and after more ‘muddling through’ – we expect…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 24, 2013 at 1:55pm — No Comments
(received 8h ago but could not publish it as I was sleeping :)
UBS - "EURUSD BULLISH With the trending and momentum indicators pointing higher, focus is on further upside. Key resistance is at 1.3417. Support is at 1.3134 ahead of 1.3052.
USDJPY BULLISH Any downside will be held by strong support at 98.57, which was held previously on a closing basis. Focus is on resumption of upside, with resistance at 101.53 ahead of the key resistance at…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 24, 2013 at 1:43pm — No Comments
Recommendations: LONG positions above 1.3189 with 1.3235 & 1.3270 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The downside breakout of 1.3189 will call for a slide to 1.3160/1.3115
Description: The pair's already found support at 1.3189, as long as this level holds , It will try higher towards 1.3240 , break of 1.3240 will pave the way towards 1.3280 ahead of 1.3300 levels, an hourly close below 1.3189 will reverse risks towards…
JP Morgan - "The medium term bearish risks have increased over the past month following the reversal from the June peak. This reversal coincided with the test and failure against the important 1.34/1.35 resistance zone (76.4% retracement) leading to an impulsive decline. More importantly, the price action is consistent with the broad head and shoulders topping pattern below the February peak. In turn, the focus is now on the critical 1.28/1.2745 support area. This important test includes the…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 23, 2013 at 3:12pm — No Comments
Societé Generale - "In FX, charts of Eur/USD against either relative rates or peripheral spreads (the biggest drivers of the euro) are both far more comforting for Euro bulls, than bears. The 2yr/2yr rate spread is correcting as US rates fall back, and that points to a break higher for the Euro. Peripheral spreads don't do anything to encourage the AEP-brigade or Euro bears. Europe still needs easier policy and needs a weaker euro. Deflation in high-debt countries is no way to solve anything…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 23, 2013 at 2:45pm — No Comments
As shown on the weekly chart below fall from 1.3710 levels was contained well around 1.2750 levels, If we back to the past a little bit , and checked this area, you could notice that we have strong demand zone around 1.2500/1.2700 levels in medium term view. how !!
According to weekly %R Williams, we have 3 bullish divergence(s) around 1.2700 levels, added that 1.2500 is protected by the weekly EMA (30) , Sept 2012 low, and it's a round number..
See how the pair pulled-back…
Recommendations: SHORT positions below 1.3217 with 1.3145 & 1.3065 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The upside breakout of 1.3217 will extend gains to 1.3280/1.3330
Description: The pair's already found resistance at 1.3217, as long as this level holds , the pair will remain under pressure with risk towards 1.3143 , a 4 hour close below 1.3143 will pave the way towards 1.3065 levels, an hourly close above 1.3217 will…
Brown Brothers Harriman - "Euro: After recovering from $1.2755 on July 9 to $1.3200 on July 11, the single currency has been consolidating. In that consolidation, it has been carving out what appears to be a flag, which is understood as a continuation pattern. However, we are skeptical of the pattern's validity as it is getting too close to the apex. Nevertheless, the relative strength index and the MACDs are constructive and the 5-day average crossed above the 20-day…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 22, 2013 at 3:03pm — No Comments
The EURUSD maintained some bullish momentum last week, topped at 1.3178, and bottomed at 1.2993, pressure remains on the key resistance 1.3206, the EURUSD will have to hold above the 1.3206 levels on a weekly closing basis to push the market for further upside gains ,If seen it will target the 1.3330 levels ahead of 1.31415 levels.
Alternatively, a failure to hold above the 1.3206 levels could mean a return to the 1.2755 levels, losing 1.2755 will target 1.2660 ahead of…
Added by Haitham653 on July 21, 2013 at 8:08pm — No Comments