TD Securities - "We are bearish on EUR/USD. While the Fed appears to be inching towards the QE exit, policy makers in Europe have made it clear that it is premature to even talk about removing policy accommodation which will remain in place for the "foreseeable future".
(...) Eurozone growth trends, especially in the peripheral economies, remain sluggish and EZ unemployment has reached record highs, in contrast to the relatively better macro-economic trends in the US. Peripheral…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 4, 2013 at 3:10pm — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH With the bear trend intact focus is on the key support at 1.2797. A break below this would suggest scope for further downside. Resistance is at 1.3078.
USDJPY BULLISH Our focus is on the key resistance at 103.74. Downside should be limited with support at 98.16.
GBPUSD BEARISH The pair closed below the key support at 1.5183. This was a strong bearish development, exposing 1.5009. Resistance is at 1.5279.
USDCHF BULLISH Any recovery should be limited with a…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 4, 2013 at 10:23am — No Comments
Recommendations: SHORT positions below 1.3038 with 1.2960 & 1.2920 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The upside breakout of 1.3038 will call for a rebound to 1.3077/1.3135
Description: The pair trades below its resistance at 1.3038, as long as this level holds,look for further downside losses towards 1.2960/1.2920 levels, a break below 1.2920 will target 1.2860 ahead of 1.2790 , a 30 min close above 1.3038 would delay the…
Yesterday was the second try to bottom at 1.2922, after failing at 1.3058 last week, now pressure will be on the key resistance 1.3078, break of 1.3078 will open the way towards 1.3150, to neutralize the bearish threat , it needs a daily close above 1.3150, If seen,Intraday bias will turn bullish in short term and in medium term , it will turn from bearish to neutral,break of 1.3150 will open the way for retesting 1.3250/300 levels.
On the downside , a failure to hold above…Continue
Recommendations: SHORT positions below 1.2985 with 1.2920 & 1.2880 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The upside breakout of 1.2985 will call for a rebound to 1.3038/1.3077
Description: The pair trades below its resistance at 1.2985, as long as this level holds,look for further downside losses towards 1.2920/1.2880 levels, an hourly close above 1.2985 would delay the bearish move and pave the way towards 1.3038/1.3077 but…
Added by Haitham653 on July 3, 2013 at 9:30am — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH With the MACD below its zero line, potential is for further downside. Immediate support is at 1.2985 ahead of 1.2797. Resistance is at 1.3150.
USDJPY NEUTRAL The pair is trading just below the strong resistance at 99.94. A closing break above this would be positive, opening 103.74. Support is at 99.18 ahead of 96.82.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Weakness is held by the key support at 1.5183, which was tested on Friday. A closing break below this would a strong bearish…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 2, 2013 at 11:43am — No Comments
Societé Generale - "The dollar is slightly stronger, RUB and AUD the notable ‘fallers' today. The markets are biding time ahead of the Riksbank tomorrow (no change), the UK MPC on Thursday (no change) the ECB on Thursday (dovish) and of course Friday's NFP data.
Most of our trade ideas can be summarised as: Stay long USD, short Treasuries vs Europe, keep away from EM (still)
Paying 2yr/2yr US dollars and receiving in Euros remains one of my favourite trades and has performed much…
Monthly: As shown on the monthly chart below , the pair is trapped inside a triangle, after topping at 1.3710 levels last Feb, the pair declined to 1.2745 levels affected by the bearish divergence of %R on monthly chart , then retraced to 1.3415 levels, and found a dynamic resistance , this scenario is bearish , a monthly close below 1.2954 - Jun law - will pave the way towards 1.2400/200 levels before the big rise towards 1.4200 levels..…Continue
Recommendations: LONG positions above 1.3048 with 1.3100 & 1.3140 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The downside breakout of 1.3048 will call for a slide to 1.3014/1.2984
Description: The pair has found multi support levels on the 1 hour chart, at 1.2984,1.2991,1.3014 and 1.3048 levels, stability above 1.3048 will keep pressure to the upside towards 1.3100/1.3145 levels, an hourly close below 1.3048 will…
Added by Haitham653 on July 2, 2013 at 7:46am — No Comments
The EURUSD continued to maintain its bearish momentum last week,topped at 1.3150, bottomed at 1.2984, and closed at 1.3010.
On the downside , the weekly close below 1.3098 , opens the way towards 1.2900 levels ahead of 1.2700 levels,break of 1.2984 will accelerate the bearish move towards 1.2900/1.2700 levels.
On the upside, resistance is at 1.3150, a daily close above 1.3150 will open the way towards 1.3250 levels, break of 1.3250 on a daily closing basis is likely to…
Brown Brothers Harriman - "Before the weekend, the Dollar Index set new highs for the move, while sterling and the Australian dollar recorded new lows. The euro and Canadian dollar came within ticks of the lows set earlier in the week. While there may be some consolidation ahead of the key events next week, which include several central bank meetings (RBA, Riksbank, BOE and ECB), the monthly PMIs and US employment data, the US dollar is likely to continue to strengthen.
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 1, 2013 at 12:15pm — No Comments
UBS - "EURCHF Bearish. Any upside should be limited with a strong resistance at 1.2384. Support is at 1.2278 ahead of 1.2196
EURGBP Neutral. The cross again bounced from the support at 0.8475. Resistance is at 0.8607 ahead of 0.8656. A closing break below 0.8475 would be negative opening 0.8398.
EURJPY Neutral. Resistance at 130.43 holds the upside move. A break above this would open 133.80. Support is at 124.72; a closing break below this would be negative.
EURUSD Bearish. With…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 28, 2013 at 9:05am — No Comments
Deutsche Bank - "Now that the dust has settled after last week’s FOMC meeting, various market overshoots from position squeezes are correcting themselves. One of the most notable overshoots was the sell-off in front-end euro rates, which resulted in euro yields moving higher than US yields, despite more hawkish Fed talk.
This is now reversing, and so rate differentials which were providing support for the euro are longer doing so. What has helped has been a turn higher in US data…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 28, 2013 at 8:57am — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH Yesterday the pair closed below the strong support at 1.3034. The risk is for further downside with next support at 1.2797. Resistance is at 1.3151.
AUDUSD BEARISH With the MACD below its zero line, we expect the resistance at 0.9407 to hold on closing basis. Support is at 0.9143. A closing break below this will trigger deeper sell-off.
USDCAD BULLISH As a reaction to a sharp advance the pair is consolidating. Support at 1.0396 should hold for now. Resistance…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 27, 2013 at 8:33am — No Comments
Recommendations: SHORT positions below 1.3058 with 1.3000 & 1.2950 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The upside breakout of 1.3058 will call for a rebound to 1.3100/1.3145
Description: The pair trades below its resistance at 1.3058, as long as this level holds,look for further downside losses towards 1.3000/1.2950 levels, an hourly close above 1.3058 would delay the bearish move and pave the way towards 1.3100/1.3145…Continue
The Extended bullish divergence, usually comes in trending market,after strong fall and setting a temporary bottom, but because of the lack of bullish momentum, the pair usually extends its weakness below support level to get the necessary momentum.
In our case, according to daily %R - Williams , the pair put a temporary bottom at 1.3058 levels after forming a bullish divergence, but because of the lack of bullish…Continue
ANZ - "EURUSD: The slide below 1.3325 duly triggered a relatively sharp slide into the 1.3025- 1.3125 area to underscore the corrective range trading bias. Interim rebounds should struggle to regain 1.3200-50 and then be followed by another frustrating slide through 1.3000 in a position flipping decline to test 1.2700 within the context of a broader 1.25-1.37 range. The head and shoulders pattern may be mentioned again, but not much should transpire from…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 26, 2013 at 5:28pm — No Comments
Gold fell to a new low during Asian session with a delay reaction to strong US economic data released yesterday. Good US data means that FED is closer to tapering which is the reason for a sell-off on metals and stronger USD. EURUSD also reached new low at 1.3050 which could be wave five in 1 so corrective recovery may follow soon in wave 2 but remains unconfirmed as long as upper trend-line of a trading channel is in place. So for now pair remains in bearish mode for possible test of…Continue
Added by Gregor Horvat on June 26, 2013 at 8:42am — No Comments
As shown on the daily chart below, the pair was rejected from the key support 1.3060, %R Williams , we have bullish divergence on daily chart, If we shift down to 1 hour chart, according to RSI and MACD , the bearish trend starts losing its momentum .
The Idea: Long above 1.3058, with target towards 1.3160 and 1.3250 as a second target , stop out with a 4 hour closing below 1.3058, note that as long as the daily close is above 1.3058, the pair will try move higher, but If…Continue
EURUSD fell sharply lower last week from 1.3415 which we believe it represents impulsive decline. As we know, impulses show direction of a trend or change in trend, so we think that EURUSD has reached a top and that pair is headed lower, minimum in three waves even if decline will be corrective. As such, we labeled first leg down as wave 1 followed by wave 2 which may already be underway. Ideally wave 2 will find resistance around 1.3250.
Added by Gregor Horvat on June 25, 2013 at 7:00am — No Comments