HSBC - "he ECB's surprise decision to lower interest rates will weaken the EUR, and this most likely is exactly what the central bank wants. Net exports have been the major driver of GDP growth over recent quarters, and the rise in EUR was increasingly threatening this engine of growth. Meanwhile, a lower EUR will also help push up inflation through higher import costs.
The ECB will hope this double-whammy of the exchange rate effect on growth and inflation will help curtail the…
Added by Francesc Riverola on November 7, 2013 at 4:20pm — No Comments
Markets are very slow at the start of the European sessions ahead of ECB and BoE rates decisions. From a technical point of view we see EURUSD still moving up in wave c of a corrective retracement so our bias is bearish but the intraday structure could see a spike up to 1.3560/1.3570 before going sharply lower. That is what technicals say, so maybe Draghi comments will be catalyst.
EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis1h…
Added by Gregor Horvat on November 7, 2013 at 9:00am — No Comments
Recommendations: LONG positions above 1.3487 with 1.3550 & 1.3588 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The downside breakout of 1.3487 will call for a slide to 1.3430/385 .
Description: Although the pair under pressure on the daily chart, but It finds bid at 1.3487 levels on smaller time frames , stability above this level on hourly basis would add pressure on the 1.3550/1.3588 levels , break of 1.3588 would open 1.3650 ahead of…
JP Morgan - "The latest and surprisingly low inflation numbers out of Europe sparked renewed rate cut fantasies which led to a sharp reversal of the EUR/USD up-trend. Confirmation that a new downtrend has been established and that higher targets at 1.3870, at 1.3977 and at 1.4259/83 (monthly Ichimoku-lagging/monthly trend/int. 76.4 %/pivot) are out of focus would however only be delivered via a break below 1.3462/52/29 (pivots/daily trend). Such a break would signal a B.-or 2nd-wave top in…Continue
Recommendations: SHORT positions below 1.3524 with 1.3472 & 1.3440 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The upside breakout of 1.3524 will call for a rebound to 1.3560/588 .
Description:As long as the pair trades below 1.3524, It will remain under negative pressure with risk towards the 1.3472 ,sustained break below 1.3472 will open 1.3385 ahead of 1.3325 levels.On the upside ; an hourly close above 1.3524 would delay the…
Recommendations: SHORT positions around 1.3650 with 1.3472 & 1.3325 as next target.
Alternative scenario:The upside breakout of 1.3832 will call for a rebound to 1.4025/280.
Description:The EURUSD failed to hold its gains above the weekly resistance 1.3785 and printed a new resistance at the 1.3832 levels, support comes at the 1.3472, losing this level would open 1.3325 levels,below 1.3325 would target 1.3104 levels.On the…
Recommendations: SHORT positions below 1.3870 with 1.3472 & 1.3104 as next target.
Alternative scenario:The upside breakout of 1.3870 will call for a rebound to 1.4025/375.
Description:Although the EURUSD broke above 1.3710 last month, but the pair failed to hold above the 1.3710 levels, the scenario suggests a big reversal might be on the way , support comes at the 1.3471 levels , losing this level on a monthly basis would…
The EURUSD maintained a strong bearish momentum yesterday , topped at the 1.3738 levels and bottomed at the 1.3574 levels, now pressure will be on the 1.3574 levels.The EURUSD will have to hold below the 1.3574 levels on a daily closing basis to push the market for further downside losses, If seen ,It will target the 1.3505 levels, a halt is suggested , but a breach will turn focus on the 1.3415 levels, further losses will aim the 1.3317 levels.
Alternatively, a failure to hold…
The Federal Reserve left its policy unchanged and maintains the current pace of bonds buying at $85 billion per month as they are still waiting on more evidences of economic improvement and stability. The USD was higher after the statement, but nothing significant and decisive yet.
The EURUSD touched 1.3700 but decline on the intraday charts cannot be counted impulsively, so we are still observing an a)-b)-c) retracement with possible ending diagonal at the end of the pattern. We…Continue
Added by Gregor Horvat on October 31, 2013 at 10:04am — No Comments
Recommendations: SHORT positions below 1.3740 with 1.3685 & 1.3650 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The upside breakout of 1.3740 will call for a rebound to 1.3770/810 .
Description:As long as the pair trades below 1.3740, It will remain under negative pressure with risk towards the 1.3685 ahead of 1.3650 levels, below 1.3650 would open 1.3615 ahead of 1.3567 levels.On the upside , break of 1.3740 on hourly basis would only…
The USD is not showing any clear direction for the near-term. Most of the pairs are very slow and sideways. On EURUSD we however still anticipate a reversal to the upside, but would need to see an impulse up to 1.3810 to make sure that correction is complete.
Added by Gregor Horvat on October 30, 2013 at 10:30am — No Comments
Recommendations: SHORT positions around 1.3770 with 1.3735 & 1.3685 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The upside breakout of 1.3809 will call for a rebound to 1.3870/935 .
Description:With the key resistance 1.3770/1.3809 intact , further downside is suggested , stability below 1.3740 will add pressure on the 1.3685 ahead of the 1.3650 levels.On the upside ; to resume its upside offensive , the pair needs to break and hold…
Added by Haitham653 on October 30, 2013 at 9:03am — No Comments
The USD moved slightly higher during the Asian trading session, particularly against the GBP, AUD and NZD. Meanwhile the EUR is doing well, it’s trading slow which is fine as we are tracking a corrective retracement from latest highs. EUR is the strongest compared to other currencies, so if you want to be short USD then EUR long may not be a bad idea.
Well, on the hourly chart of the EURUSD we see prices moving down in three legs from the peak with an ending diagonal in wave c)…
Added by Gregor Horvat on October 29, 2013 at 9:00am — No Comments
EURUSD : With the key support 1.3740 intact , further upside couldn't be ruled out, but the pair needs to clear 1.3832 first( 61.8%) retacement of the big run 1.2042/1.4940, there's a risk of topping around this level , support comes at the 1.3740 levels, a break below this level will turn focus on the 1.3650 levels, further out will aim the 1.3472 levels, losing this level will confirm topping at 1.3832 and should open 1.3104 levels.
On the upside: to resume its…
The USD is showing some weakness while metals and stocks futures are rising. As you know we are bearish on the buck from a larger perspective and we expect a continuation of this trend in this week. In other words, we expect further rise on the EURUSD and similar correlated pairs as well as a new turn up on commodity currencies, especially on AUDUSD.
Our special attention at the start of the week will be on EURUSD, where we see a wave (iv) correction in progress. A pullback must…
Added by Gregor Horvat on October 28, 2013 at 10:02am — No Comments
EUR/USD’s gains have extended to the low 1.38 area today, the high of the year and a pinpoint test of the bull channel in place since
the start of Q3. Trend momentum signals remain bullishly aligned across a range of timeframes but, with trend channel resistance
holding, the slow stochastic…
Added by Daologic on October 26, 2013 at 6:54am — No Comments
ANZ - "EURUSD Daily: Momentum indicators may be at disconcerting levels, but are not rolling over (to provide a negative warning) as gains continue to hold above February’s 1.3710 high. Concern should be pushed aside and the rally could push through an interim retracement of 1.3835 to a series of measured moves in the 1.3950-1.4050 area.
This more positive profile should still be seen in the context of EUR/USD defining the upper bounds of a much broader trading (consolidation) range.…
Added by Francesc Riverola on October 25, 2013 at 10:41am — No Comments
The stocks futures market is sideways for the past two or three trading days which we think it represents a corrective pause with ongoing uptrend. On the S&P Futures hourly chart we track the idea of a triangle that suggest a break up in wave (v) towards 1760/1770. Move may occur already today, or early next week.
S&P Futures 1h…Continue
Added by Gregor Horvat on October 25, 2013 at 9:29am — No Comments
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "So taking the fact that the euro rise is not yet at a level to materially change the inflation outlook, and that the fall in crude oil prices is unlikely to alter the outlook much either and given the better outlook in Germany and the Bundesbank concerns over speculative bubbles emerging in its property market, we doubt the ECB will act any time soon. We have been calling for a rate cut in Q4 for some time, but this is now very unlikely. It will probably take…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on October 24, 2013 at 5:44pm — No Comments
Even the pair has corrected a lower bit , but it's found support at the 1.3740, this development leaves the pair targeting the 1.3785 where a breach is likely , If seen , It will target the 1.3870 levels, further out will aim the 1.4025 levels.
On the downside, support is at 1.3740 levels, losing this level would delay the bullish move for retesting 1.3650 levels where halt is strongly suggested , sustained break below 1.3650 would open 1.3472 levels.
Overall, the pair…