"Trading Strategy | Continue to look for opportunities to accumulate dollars as the data challenge the Fed's push back on higher market interest rates. Add GBP/USD shorts to existing USD/CHF longs on evidence of widening imbalances and slowing UK growth. Stay short EUR/USD after last week's soft Euro area CPI report and dovish ECB. Add on a break of 1.3645. Square tactical long USD/SEK exposure ahead of this week's Riksbank meeting, but…Continue
Added by Daologic on April 7, 2014 at 12:30pm — No Comments
“In Trading, just as in archery, whenever there is effort, force, straining, struggling, or trying, it’s wrong. You are out of sync; you are out of harmony with the market” Charles Faulkner, motivational speaker and trader.
April 7th 2014 – Last week was quite a week for currencies…Continue
Added by Gary on April 7, 2014 at 10:58am — No Comments
EUR/USD – Post-ECB price action saw a medium-term Head and Shoulders triggered on the daily chart as well as forming a three-line strike candlestick pattern. Measuring targets from the pattern are 1.3550 and 1.3450. This type of pattern is usually accompanied by a return move to the neckline,…Continue
The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum last week , topped at the 1.3820 levels , bottomed at the 1.3672 levels , closed at the 1.3702 levels , few pips below the 1.3706 levels.
As a result ; outlook in EURUSD turns neutral , support comes at the 1.3642 levels , sustained trading - weekly closing – below this level would open 1.3471 levels . At this point I’d expect strong support from the 1.3471 levels to contain fall from the 1.3996 levels and bring rally resumption . a clear…Continue
"EURUSD’s early gains this week petered out above 1.38, the sell-zone we anticipated in last week’s update and effectively the top of the downward sloping channel that has developed off the early March peak. The outside range day lower Wednesday was the cue for a renewed push down that has extended below…Continue
Added by Daologic on April 7, 2014 at 5:30am — No Comments
“Successful traders know that a consistent and systematic review of their daily trading activities is the direct path to growing and improving” Van Tharp Trading Coach & Author.
April 4th 2014 –There is some conflicting price action out there at the moment. The US Dollar looks quite…Continue
Added by Gary on April 4, 2014 at 8:51am — No Comments
The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday , printed resistance at the 1.3805 levels , and bottomed at the 1.3697 levels. This development leaves the pair targeting the 1.3660 levels where a breach will turn focus on the 1.3618 levels , further downside will aim the 1.3585 levels.
On the upside , resistance comes at the 1.3766 levels ahead of 1.3805 ( main) , break of 1.3805 levels on a daily basis will turn outlook neutral for 1.3827/1.3845 levels . To reverse risks to the…Continue
Added by Haitham653 on April 4, 2014 at 5:42am — No Comments
"FX Set-up: ECB Inaction Will Push EURUSD Slightly Higher …Continue
Added by Daologic on April 3, 2014 at 11:30am — No Comments
“In general, it’s probably best to be somewhere in between a pure discretionary trader and a pure system trader” Monroe Trout, retired hedge fund manager.
April 3rd 2014 – Take note of outside days. When the range of a daily candle from the high to the low is greater than the range of…Continue
Added by Gary on April 3, 2014 at 7:00am — No Comments
As shown on the 4 hour chart below , the EURUSD was rejected from the weekly and monthly support at the 1.3706 levels , looks like the pair is forming a head and shoulders pattern , which is bullish reversal , added to that , momentum indicators (MACD + RSI ) show that the bearish momentum is fading away , neckline comes at the 1.3875 levels , a clear break on a 4 hour basis should target the 1.4050 levels a breach will aim the 1.4225 levels , further upside will look for the 1.4400…Continue
“Casinos make consistent profits day after day and year after year, facilitating an event that has a purely random outcome. At the same time, most traders believe that the outcome of the market’s behaviour is not random, yet can’t seem to produce consistent profits– Mark Douglas, author of Trading in…Continue
Added by Gary on April 2, 2014 at 7:00am — No Comments
No change , with the key support 1.3471 intact – Feb 2014 low – further upside couldn't be ruled out , resistance comes at the 1.3825 levels – Feb 2014 high – sustained trading above this level will open 1.4000 levels where a breach will turn focus on the 1.4100 levels , a break will look for the 1.4285 levels , further upside will aim the 1.4500 levels…
On the downside , support comes at the 1.3704 levels – Mar 2014 low – sustained trading below this level should weaken…Continue
"EURUSD: The pair itself was net sold, but flows through the euro overall
were finely balanced. Hedge fund sellers ran into corporates on the bid.
USDJPY, EURJPY: The yen was net sold in aggregate, but USDJPY flows were
USDCHF, EURCHF: The Swiss franc was net bought, both through EURCHF and
USDCHF. Turnover was only 82% of normal though, and hedge fund…
Added by Daologic on April 1, 2014 at 5:29am — No Comments
“The essence of discipline is that there are no exceptions.” – Jack Schwager, author.
April 1st 2014 – Welcome to Q2 and to April fool’s Day. The 1.3875 level is now resistance on EURUSD, not kidding! After the failure of the breakout through key multi-year technical…Continue
"Macro Trade Recommendations:
Although higher US yields are only delivering narrow USD gains, it is too
soon to claim a game change or buy into the broad carry revival. Keep
selective USD longs (vs. EUR, MYR and PHP) in option form. CAD still
has medium-term downside but short-term upside: buy vs SEK. Stay long
a 1-yr EUR/CHF put and short GBP/CAD vol.
The euro looks increasingly vulnerable…
Added by Daologic on March 31, 2014 at 1:00pm — No Comments
"EUR/USD – time to sell?
The combination of the March US payrolls release and the ECB policy meeting means the week ahead is potentially a potent one for EUR/USD. The currency pair has already spent the second half of…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 31, 2014 at 9:12am — No Comments
TD Securities - "EURUSD rebounded in the early part of the past week, much as we expected it might after the consolidation late the week before. But despite a very powerful rally Monday (outside range day), the gains did not have any staying power and the EUR traded softly over the balance of the week, falling to test the 40-day MA. The market may be able to consolidate a little longer (and gain a little more) above 1.3775 early next week but the short-term bias towards more corrective…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 31, 2014 at 9:02am — No Comments
“I have known people with systems that can easily net 100% each year who constantly jump on the next new system that comes along.” K Van Tharp, Trading Coach, author of Market Wizards.
March 31st – This week features high level events from the euro-zone and the US, making it a very interesting week for EUR/USD. Inflation data in the euro-zone is likely to set the expectations for the ECB meeting, but it does not mean that the expectations will be met. In…Continue
Added by Gary on March 31, 2014 at 8:30am — No Comments
Trading Strategy | Sell EUR/USD into the ECB on Thursday if Monday's Euro area HICP prints 0.5% yoy. We're reluctant to chase carry right here given what we think the Fed is telling us about their exit strategy and like to very slowly accumulate dollars. Start by buying dips in USD/CHF as Euro dollar Dec 15-Dec 16 futures are sold and implied yields rise. Consider adding USD/SEK longs given increasing risks that the Riksbank cuts in…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 31, 2014 at 6:55am — No Comments