The EURUSD maintained a bearish momentum yesterday topped at 1.3415 and bottomed at 1.3261, now pressure will be on the key support 1.3261, the EURUSD will have to hold below the 1.3261 levels on a daily closing basis to push the market for further downside losses, If seen it will target the 1.3176 levels where a breach will turn focus on the 1.3060 levels.
Alternatively, a failure to hold below the 1.3261 levels could mean a return to the 1.3415 levels, break of 1.3415 will…Continue
Added by Haitham653 on June 20, 2013 at 4:30am — No Comments
Currently we are at 1.3402 in a rising wedge which is bearish for the pair. A couple of different scenarios. 1: a move to the lower chart trend line and bounce creating a head and shoulders top 2: A break down here to the 0.618 Fibo @1.3187. The average daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 110 pips.
Added by Scott Barkley on June 19, 2013 at 12:59pm — No Comments
EURUSD reached new high yesterday so we assume that wave 4 is already complete and that wave 5 is underway which has room for further gains, towards 1.3500 in sessions ahead. Meanwhile 1.3318 support must hold, otherwise we would assume that top is in place. From a larger perspective we need to keep in mind that wave 4 was a triangle and that triangle always occur prior to the final move of the larger pattern, which means that current leg up will sooner or later complete a bullish…Continue
Added by Gregor Horvat on June 19, 2013 at 7:51am — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BULLISH The pair posted a new high and is approaching the resistance at 1.3520 ahead of 1.3711. Support is at 1.3319.
USDJPY BEARISH The weakness since mid-May is approaching the significant support at 93.57. A closing break below this would be further negative opening 90.43. Resistance is at 96.10.
GBPUSD BULLISH As the bull trend persists any downside will be limited with a strong support at 1.5468. Broader focus is on the strong resistance at 1.5789; a closing…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 19, 2013 at 7:28am — No Comments
Societé Generale - "As we head into midyear, the year-to-date change in EUR/USD has shifted back into positive territory. We see this move driven by two forces essentially: short covering, through a broad and deep position cleaning in early June; an upward repricing of forward EUR short-term rates, after Draghi in early June poured cold water on hopes of deposit rate cuts. This makes me think of January, when fears of evaporating liquidity cause a broad repricing of the Euribor strip,…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 19, 2013 at 7:12am — No Comments
Recommendations: LONG positions above 1.3385 with 1.3430 & 1.3460 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The downside breakout of 1.3385 will call for a slide to 1.3335/1.3290
Description: The pair trades above its support 1.3385, as long as this level holds,look for further upside gains towards 1.3430 & 1.3460 levels, an hourly close below 1.3385 would delay the bullish move but downside below 1.3385 is likely to be…Continue
Deutsche Bank - "US real yields have relentlessly marched higher since May. Some may be surprised by the recent ack of broad dollar strength, but one needs to recall that low real yields since late 2008 were manifesting themselves most in a weak dollar against commodity/$-bloc currencies (notably AUD and NZD) and emerging currencies. Therefore, a change in the real yield trend should most directly translate to dollar strength against those currencies, and indeed that has been the case. With…Continue
JP Morgan - "The big picture is still favoring the view that the recovery from 1.2746 (April low) is nothing else but a classical 3- step countertrend rally with a maximum upside potential of 1.3483/1.3521 (int. 76.4 %/pivot). That said we have opened a strategic short position in expectation of a minimum decline to 1.2436/26 (76.4 %/C = A) and intend to add up either at 1.3450 or on a break below key-support at 1.3177/73 (pivot/minor 38.2 %) as a break below the latter would confirm the…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 17, 2013 at 5:00pm — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BULLISH With the MACD above its zero line, the potential is for further upside. Resistance is at 1.3390 ahead of 1.3520. Support is at 1.3266
USDJPY BEARISH The weakness since mid–May is approaching the significant support at 93.57. A closing break below this would be further negative opening 90.43. Resistance is at 96.10.
GBPUSD BULLISH There is a strong resistance at 1.5789. A closing break above this would be further positive opening 1.5879. Support is at…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 17, 2013 at 11:05am — No Comments
Oil is moving higher for the last two weeks and has now successfully closed above the red trend-line connected from 100 area. This trend-line represents an upper side of a triangle pattern that we were tracking it for the last few weeks, which now appears complete if we consider potential end of wave E at 91 area. With that said, we believe that market is now headed higher within wave C) of (D), up to 102/103.…Continue
Added by Gregor Horvat on June 17, 2013 at 7:47am — No Comments
Recommendations: LONG positions above 1.3293 with 1.3350 & 1.3390 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The downside breakout of 1.3293 will call for a slide to 1.3230/1.3180
Description: The pair trades above its support 1.3293, as long as this level holds,look for further upside gains towards 1.3350 & 1.3390 levels, an hourly close below 1.3293 would delay the bullish move but downside below 1.3293 is likely to be…Continue
Added by Haitham653 on June 17, 2013 at 7:20am — No Comments
Rabobank - "The USD has not performed well over the past month. In the G10 space only the AUD and the NZD have fared worse. We have linked the recent softness of the greenback to positioning and the fact that the market entered into Q2 structurally long. This left the USD vulnerable to disappointing US economic data and the recognition that the pace of the domestic expansion has slowed relative to Q1. As the market continues to adjust the level of its long positions, there is the possibility…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 16, 2013 at 5:59pm — No Comments
The EURUSD continued to maintain its bullish momentum last week ,topped at 1.3393 and closed at 1.3345.
With the break of 1.3305, next resistance would be 1.3460, stability above 1.3460 on a weekly closing basis, would turn focus on the 1.3650 levels.
On the downside , support is at 1.3176, below this level will turn intraday bias to neutral and pave the way towards 1.3060 levels.
In all, as long as the key support 1.3176 holds , the pair is likely to return to its…Continue
TD Securities - "We are still struggling a bit to get a firmer sense of the technical outlook for EUR/USD. Gains through 1.32/1.33 this week confer a little more strength on the basic outlook on the daily chart but, if the market is still retracing the Q1 sell-off, gains appear to have stumbled a little at least around the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance at 1.3344 over the latter part of this week. Trend momentum signals are constructive on the daily studies but less so on the shorter and…Continue
UBS - "USDJPY remains the focus of the currency markets. Over the last two weeks the flush out of positions in the currency pair and the Nikkei has been savage, causing investors to unwind other dollar longs against the euro, pound and Swiss franc. In contrast, the fundamentals supporting a stronger dollar this year remain intact.
(...) most of the forty clients we met this week in France, Sweden and Switzerland also still favour the dollar this year. Longs have clearly been strongly…
Recommendations: LONG positions above 1.3341 with 1.3390 & 1.3435 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The downside breakout of 1.3341 will call for a slide to 1.3270/1.3230
Description: The pair already found support at 1.3341, as long as this level holds,look for further upside gains towards 1.3390/1.3435 levels, an hourly close below 1.3341 would delay the bullish move but downside below 1.3341 is likely to be…Continue
The EURUSD continued to maintain its bullish momentum the past days, now pressure will be on the key resistance - broken support - 1.3370 - Feb 07 2013 low , the EURUSD will have to hold above the 1.3370 levels on a daily closing basis to push the market for further upside gains , If seen, it will target the 1.3485 levels where a breach will turn focus on the 1.3577/1.3600 levels.
Alternatively, a failure to hold above the 1.3370 levels could mean a return to the 1.3177 levels ,If…Continue
Added by Haitham653 on June 13, 2013 at 11:04am — No Comments
Recommendations: Long positions above 1.3315 with 1.3400 & 1.3435 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The downside breakout of 1.3315 will call for a slide to 1.3270/1.3230
Description: The pair trades above its support 1.3315 , as long as this level holds on hourly closing basis, look for further upside gains towards 1.3400/1.3435 levels, losing 1.3315 would delay the bullish move , but downside below 1.3315 is likely…Continue
Danske Bank - "Despite the weak risk sentiment EUR/USD has continued higher the past 24 hours. The surprise move higher in the cross reflects the recent spike in short-dated EONIA rates and not least a very stretched positioning with record many long USD positions in place.
However, we doubt the spike higher in EUR/USD is sustainable and reflects a true trend-reversal. Firstly, our fixed income analysts believe the move higher in EONIA rates is greatly exaggerated as the market is now…
Recommendations: Long positions above 1.3277 with 1.3330 & 1.3370 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The downside breakout of 1.3277 will call for a slide to 1.3230/1.3180
Description: The pair finds support at 1.3277, as long as this level holds look for further upside gains with risk towards 1.3330/1.3370 levels, a 30 min close below 1.3277 will reverse risks to the downside towards 1.3230/1.3180.