EURO and GBP are making very slow unassuming slide.Whether the US data is negative or positive EURO and GBP pretend to firm up but slide.EURO and GBP cannot make the moves on upside or down on their own,the banks have to move them by making volume buying or volume selling.The bankers place the orders based on the order flow from their high net worth clients.So the high net worth clients feel that EURO and GBP could make further slide as they have built up huge sell positions…Continue
Added by Dr. Sivaraman on July 22, 2014 at 1:56pm — No Comments
A break of 1.3580 may setup a test of the 1.3500 level.
Closing above the 1.3695-1.3705 level may setup a test of…Continue
Added by Futuristic on July 4, 2014 at 4:06pm — No Comments
I have given here on 01st July the market prediction - for NFP and ECB press conference market is expected to show USD gaining moves.Also on 30th June and 1st July the players made the upward moves to build sell positions creating a bullish feel to buy later when the traders sell in distress after the drop.
Now the prediction has come true.
We could see more USD gaining moves in coming days.
All the best in your…Continue
"The European Central Bank's decision to adopt negative interest rates, undertake new Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operation loans and increase liquidity is set to cap the euro in its current 1.35-1.40 range against the dollar. In order for the single currency to make further losses in the near term, the Federal Reserve will need to keep tapering its asset purchases and signal its willingness to start raising interest rates in 2015.
But while the ECB's actions this month may not be…
Added by Daologic on June 9, 2014 at 6:39am — No Comments
"The ECB have eased policy significantly and implied rates will stay low much longer than the Fed. Price action in the EUR suggests it may firm short term, but it is hard to see a sustained rally. We continue to remain constructive on the USD though admit a broad risk asset rally near term may work against it. As occurred post-BoJ policy easing in April last year, we watch for evidence that the Fed worries more about excessive financial instability risks and stronger US economic data build…Continue
Added by Daologic on June 6, 2014 at 6:07am — No Comments
The players yesterday quicklyas expected dropped for the ECB rate decision but reversed quickly to go above that of the initial high in EURO and GBP.They normally do this sort of quick reversal move for NFP.For a change they have done the day before for ECB rate decision.
Today they are expected to swing and slowly slide all the day as intentional move.Small swing and slide moves they may do for NFP and continue the slide during US session.
They donot make…Continue
"Barring a significant surprise from the ECB, we suspect the knee-jerk reaction will be to sell the euro, but that the pullback is likely to be limited and seen as a new opportunity to buy the euro and European assets. We argue that underlying causes of the euro's resilience are tied to two factors the at the ECB will not be addressing: 1) the large current account surplus and…Continue
Added by Daologic on June 5, 2014 at 10:46am — No Comments
"Looking back, in August '07 the ECB injected €170bn into markets after money markets had seized up as banks basically refused to lend to each other. The point of today's intervention must surely be more directed at the underlying economy. However there will be many (including us) that would say that the ECB's success will likely depend on how much they can push the Euro lower. Will today be enough? Probably not on its own but…Continue
Added by Daologic on June 5, 2014 at 8:00am — No Comments
"The main event of the week is the ECB meeting. Inflation, or indeed the lack thereof, is understood to be a key spur for official action. At the end of last week, both Spain and Italy reported soft CPI figures. Yesterday Germany did too. The fact that the flash euro area estimate came in today at 0.5%, down from 0.7% in April and below the prior consensus of 0.6% is not…Continue
Added by Daologic on June 3, 2014 at 1:10pm — No Comments
"Today and tomorrow are about 'Waiting for Mario' For EUR FX that means assessing how much of what ECB will do Thursday is already discounted. We suspect the answer is most, if not all. Street analysts generally want to be short EUR/USD so we marginally prefer the long side – but it is marginal."
Added by Daologic on June 3, 2014 at 12:25pm — No Comments
"Support 1.0800 Resistance 1.0875
Looks like it should be a quiet start today to what should be an important week ahead. Friday’s GDP data was weaker than expected but the topside resistance near 1.0875 once again held and we put this supply down to continued EURCAD selling which has stabilised around 1.4800 for now. No data from Canada…Continue
Added by Daologic on June 2, 2014 at 11:45am — No Comments
Build shorts at every 100 pips starting with 1.3660 for a target at 1.35-1.34-1.33.
Build shorts at every 100 pips starting with 1.6770 for 1.64 target.
Build longs at every 100 pips starting with 0.89 for 0.91-0.92 target.
Estimated time 2-6 months.
Added by Daologic on May 30, 2014 at 6:21am — No Comments
Finally, May is shaping up to form a bearish key month reversal; the last time EURUSD saw anything similar was May 2011 when the…Continue
Added by Daologic on May 26, 2014 at 4:21am — No Comments
"EURCAD retains a weak bias and has slipped below support in the 1.49 zone again this week. We look for a quick-ish test of 1.48 and, more broadly, feel a drop to 1.4450 is on…Continue
Added by Daologic on May 23, 2014 at 12:43pm — No Comments
"The fact that sterling retains its place at the best performing developed world currency over the past 12 mths reflects the fact that there is a lot of good news priced-in. Long positions and the tendency for the market to allow itself to be carried away suggest that the pound is likely to be subject to bouts of profit-taking in the months ahead. That…Continue
Added by Daologic on May 23, 2014 at 8:39am — No Comments
"The euro is falling ahead of the European Central Bank's next meeting. More easing will weaken the single currency. But the euro's underlying direction has already turned down as changes in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet relative to the ECB's favour the dollar now.
The rise in the euro from 1.20 against the greenback in 2012 to almost 1.40 earlier this year has been driven by the Fed's balance sheet expanding through quantitative easing while the ECB's balance sheet has…
Added by Daologic on May 23, 2014 at 4:59am — No Comments
"We are not convinced ECB action in June will be enough to cause a big sell-off in the euro. However,
there are signs that Euro-area portfolio inflows are maturing, while it is also very difficult seeing real yields move further in favour of the euro over the rest of the year. All this should ensure that a top is in place around this year’s highs. On the flipside, the overall Euro-area basic balance is still strong as FDI inflows are picking up and the current account surplus remains…
"EUR is yet to reflect recent profit-taking in periphery European assets. We see risk of a break of supports as ECB delivers on easing and European data underwhelms. AUD is finally responding to the softer Chinese data, weaker iron ore prices and more dovish tone from the RBA since its Statement on Monetary Policy, reiterated in its minutes today. The negative public reaction to a tougher Australian budget last week should be reflected in consumer confidence on Wednesday. This should…Continue
Added by Daologic on May 20, 2014 at 5:33am — No Comments
"The loose correlation between the better tone in peripheral assets and the EUR can be drawn as far back as late 2012. This suggests that as investor’s faith in the coherence of EMU has strengthened, so too has the demand for peripheral assets and the EUR. Since further easing from the ECB may encourage demand for some peripheral assets, there can be no guarantee than any policy action from the ECB will have a lasting…Continue
Added by Daologic on May 16, 2014 at 9:13am — No Comments
"Most accept that higher US rates are a necessary condition for a weaker euro, though many doubt that it is a sufficient one in the face of Europe’s external surplus. Ultimately this question is an empirical one, but as highlighted by the model in chart 1, the currency moves three cents for every 25bp shift in Euro-US monetary policy expectations and two cents for every 1% change in Europe's current account balance. If frontend spreads widen about 50bp in the US's favour by year-end and…Continue
Added by Daologic on May 12, 2014 at 2:59pm — No Comments