EURGBP was sold at lower levels for a 4th day in succession Thursday. This took EURGBP to new 7 year lows and to the bottom band of a falling Keltner channel. The scope of this week's moves – more than a big figure – means intraday signals are over-stretched but, currently, profit taking is likely to remain temporary and limited. So, coupled with bearish momentum and strength indicators we look for lower levels to continue to…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on February 27, 2015 at 7:02am — No Comments
Against a background of bearish signals for sentiment for this week, there was only minor movement yesterday. But price action remains close to the bottom of a declining Keltner channel and an early attempt to rally found sellers at lower levels. With no sign of an end to this gradual deterioration in sentiment, and a new 7 year low posted in Asia, further downside is anticipated towards the 2008 low at .7342.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on February 17, 2015 at 6:58am — No Comments
Against a background of negative signals for sentiment for this week, yesterday saw EURGBP continue to hug the lower end of a declining daily Keltner channel. But after posting a new 7 year low, profit taking, from oversold extremes, developed. That move is counter trend and must be treated with caution but the recovery of virtually the entire initial fall produced a Bullish Hammer targeting .7462 or even towards .7493.
Only below .7401 negates this bullish outlook.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on February 12, 2015 at 7:01am — No Comments
Despite the previous week's 7 year low being unbroken . Initial profit taking stalled, and attracted fresh selling, at the key 13 day moving average – a level that has held for almost 2 months. Wednesday’s Marabuzo line, and the 13 day moving average, is now capping rallies and so although intraday price action is likely to remain volatile we look for rallies this week to be limited by .7521 with potential to .7377 and .7342.…Continue
Asian downside yesterday extended Wednesday’s strong rejection of the 13 day moving average. Europe reacted from those lows but the bounce was a limited one – capped comfortably by Wednesday’s Marabuzo line. While the unchanged close does reflect a degree of investor indecision it is the weakness of the rally that, coupled with a declining Keltner channel, keeps the focus on the downside targeting .7455 and .7435.…Continue
This week's consolidation continued yesterday. Little net movement has been seen over 3 days of trading but it is the weakness of profit taking attempts coupled with a still declining Keltner channel than emphasises that the underlying tone remains negative with potential through .7427 to .7405.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on January 29, 2015 at 7:03am — No Comments
Overturning the preceding week's improvement selling interest returned to EURGBP last week. 3 week lows were posted last Wednesday but almost half of the initial downside was regained the following day. This volatility means signals for sentiment cannot be clear but with the market consolidating below the 13 day moving average and the daily Ichimoku Cloud the focus is on the downside targeting .7832 and .7799.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on December 8, 2014 at 8:17am — No Comments
This week's price action has been caught within a narrow range. Around the 13 day moving average and the daily Ichimoku Cloud this is a consolidation after last week's powerful decline. A lack of follow through in either direction means that immediate signals for sentiment are not strong but it is the upside failure that means 3cA intraday studies are negative with potential to .7907 and .7897.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on November 28, 2014 at 6:59am — No Comments
EUR/USD traded in range for some time, but eventually lost ground and closed under 1.24. Can it extend its falls further below 1.2356?The main events this week are the preliminary inflation releases, employment data as well as another German business survey is already out today.…Continue
Added by Gary on November 24, 2014 at 12:02pm — No Comments
I am viewing the rallies late last week in EURGBP, EURUSD and Gold as opportunities to sell and have done just that.
GOLD – While gold has managed to retake $1180 I don’t see this in isolation but rather in conjunction with EURUSD as it managed to take back 1.25. Should EURUSD continue higher in the next few days then yes there is further upside in Gold however I have sold some today.
EURUSD – So we have taken back…Continue
Added by Gary on November 17, 2014 at 10:23am — No Comments
The Oct 31st Marabuzo line and the 13 day moving average continue to dominate EURGBP. That point has capped all rallies this month and although this has yet to be translated into a renewal of significant selling pressure, underlying sentiment is assessed as negative. So, allowing for further, narrow, volatility, we look for last week's .7798/99 lows to be retested.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on November 12, 2014 at 7:00am — No Comments
For a 3rd day in a row, yesterday saw demand falter and reverse at a Marabuzo line created last Friday. That level currently coincides with the 13 day moving average so the resistance is magnified. Yesterday's upside rejection came from a lower open and so the result was an almost unchanged close. But despite the indecision that normally highlights, and a failure to hold below .7800,the weakness of the bounce means sentiment is left negative targeting .7798/99 and .7782.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on November 7, 2014 at 7:06am — No Comments
After 7 days of indecisive range trading (capped by the 13 day mvg avg) Friday saw fresh selling of EURGBP. This renewed the underlying bearish tone reflected by the aggressive downside seen over the last 6 months.
Although this week has begun with consolidation, profit taking remains weak and we look for the topside to be constrained by a Marabuzo line created by Friday's decline and the 13 day line.
Downside targets are projected as .7770 and .7726.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on November 4, 2014 at 1:05pm — No Comments
The rally from last month’s 2 year low extended last week. This 2nd up week in succession was a tentative move dominated by Monday’s gains and uncomfortable above .7900. In fact the last 5 trading days have oscillated around the important 13 day moving average. Although this clearly highlights a degree of uncertainty, and Friday’s close was marginally below the average line, 3cA studies are left mildly positive with potential through .7900 to .7932.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on October 13, 2014 at 6:56am — No Comments
Although the bulk of last week's price action showed marginal movement, the week ended with a powerful move higher. Friday’s gains – the most aggressive daily performance since March – dominated price action breaking an important Marabuzo line, testing the top of a now rising Keltner channel and, most importantly, completed a Bullish Morning Star pattern on weekly charts. This formation often signals a complete change of sentiment and so we see potential through .8011 to .8050 with .8124…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on August 4, 2014 at 7:29am — No Comments
“Stock market bubbles don’t grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality, but reality as distorted by a misconception.” George Soros 9th July 2014.
We are seeing the first few down days in a row for the S&P in some time. Should the markets correct…Continue
Added by Gary on July 9, 2014 at 7:11am — No Comments
“It’s about getting things down to one number. Using the stats the way we read them, we’ll find value in players that no one else can see. People are overlooked for a variety of biased reasons and perceived flaws. Age, appearance, personality. Bill James and mathematics cut straight through…Continue
Added by Gary on July 8, 2014 at 8:14am — No Comments
“I’m not afraid to raise interest rates. I raised interest rates in Canada. I have not an issue with doing that if it’s appropriate.” Mark Carney – Governor of The Bank Of England
2nd July 2014. Interesting times. Cable at a five year high even though…Continue
Added by Gary on July 2, 2014 at 7:42am — No Comments
26th June 2014. If you recall Q1 in the United States was all about the bad weather and the restraining effect that was having on economic activity, but that was a terrible Q1 GDP number out of the states yesterday. I am starting to have some sympathy for Janet Yellen’s “catch 22”. …Continue
Added by Gary on June 26, 2014 at 8:19am — No Comments
“Your business with the tape is now – not tomorrow. The reason can wait. But you must act instantly or be left. Time and again I see this happen.” Jesse Livermore
June 13th 2014. Sometimes we notice trends and trade those trends however it only…Continue
Added by Gary on June 13, 2014 at 7:04am — No Comments