Currently we are at 0.8261 after the break north of the support. We are looking for a bearish continuation to the S4/5 .0214 Fibo area @ 0.8206-33. The average daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 49 pips.…Continue
Added by Scott Barkley on December 2, 2013 at 2:31pm — No Comments
Wed’s strong rejection of the 13 day moving average deepened yesterday. But although a 2nd down day in a row was posted, selling pressure slowed however and was unable to test this month’s base, or the key 50% correction point.
Rallies remain temporary but the bounce from above .8300, and modest Asian demand, means intraday sentiment is assessed as positive with potential for a bounce to .8352/70 area.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on November 29, 2013 at 7:20am — No Comments
Although the sequence of 2 down weeks ended last week, it is the weakness of the rally that is assessed as more important. Profit taking demand over the 1st two days of last week took EURGBP to the top of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud, back inside the daily Cloud and above the key 13 day m.a.
But this proved temporary with selling renewed in the last 3 days and only minor net gains posted by the close. This price action leaves sentiment mildly negative and we're looking for a…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on November 18, 2013 at 7:09am — No Comments
"Buy USD/CHF in cash
The strong payrolls print this week is likely to lend the Treasury sell-off/ USD rally some legs. USD/CHF was very well (negatively) correlated with EUR/USD in the summer taper tantrum, and is likely to rise in the event of a replay. As a result, we find value in buying USD/CHF.
Buy USD/CHF at 0.9200, stop at 0.9050.
Stay short EUR/USD through a 1-mo 1.34-1.32 put spread part financed by selling a 1.39 call.
The combination of a more proactive/ dovish…
Added by Daologic on November 11, 2013 at 2:18pm — No Comments
"The September/October correction in EUR/GBP extended higher than we expected (briefly above 0.85 resistance and the 200-day MA) but the rally took the form of a bear wedge pattern and the sell off (bearish outside week) and break below the base of the consolidation last week generated good follow-through selling interest this week. The market has steadied in the low 0.83 area today, raising the risk of a minor correction but the bear wedge breakdown targets a drop to 0.8050 over the next…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 9, 2013 at 7:06am — No Comments
3 weeks of fluctuating price action in EURGBP were followed by a rejection of initial lows and strong buying in the last 5 days. The resulting gains, using a Marabuzo line from January as a platform, created a Bullish Outside Week.
This positive pattern often signals a change in market sentiment and with the daily Keltner channel trending positively now and the 13 day mvg avg exceeded for the first time in a month, we look for demand to continue.
.8532 and towards .8591 are valid…
Added by Alan Collins on October 7, 2013 at 6:32am — No Comments
Wednesday’s rejection of 8 month lows extended yesterday. The strongest performance of this month resulted with a rally that took the cross marginally through the key 13 day moving average that has capped prices throughout September. Despite overbought extremes, intraday signals are also supportive and so we look for this demand to extend.
.8454/65 is the immediate target area. .8481 behind that.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on September 20, 2013 at 6:30am — No Comments
ANZ - "USD/JPY: The dips from the tests of 103.80 and 101.50 in recent months are seen as interim legs within a broader corrective pattern. The near term bias is that the recent dip below 0.9650 formed a base from which USD/JPY should be able to post another push into the 101.50-103.80 area in coming weeks.
Assuming that such a move shows signs of faltering, this profile would suggest that another corrective pullback should then develop. However, that pullback should be…
Added by Francesc Riverola on August 23, 2013 at 4:09pm — No Comments
rnThe EURGBP on the daily chart formed a bullish fakey setup which could see price rotate higher towards the near resistance level where we watch to see how price reacts to it. with price currently sitting on the dynamic support levels on the weekly chart and the long term bias being bullish, traders are safe to look for an opportunity to take a long position on this pair targeting the key resistance level as illustrated in the…Continue
Added by Henry nnalue on August 20, 2013 at 9:53pm — No Comments
Goldman Sachs - "EUR/$: Our positive stance on the EUR is due to the stronger BBoP trend for the Euro area. In contrast to the weaker balance for the US, this structural imbalance implies a gradually weaker USD and a stronger EUR. Downside risk remains in the Euro area, with growth remaining weak and the ECB signaling that it expects to keep rates low, with a downward bias, for ‘an extended period’. However in the longer run – and after more ‘muddling through’ – we expect…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 24, 2013 at 1:55pm — No Comments
UBS - "EURCHF NEUTRAL Critical resistance is at 1.2485. A closing break above this would be positive, opening 1.2650. Downside should be limited, with support at 1.2371.
EURGBP BULLISH There is a strong resistance at 0.8656, which was tested yesterday. With the momentum tools crossing higher, a closing break above this would trigger further upside. Support is at 0.8563 ahead of 0.8469.
EURJPY BULLISH Downside should be limited, and we expect the support at 128.04 to hold.…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 10, 2013 at 11:00am — No Comments
Currently we are at 0.8649 after breaking out of the ascending wedge. We are looking for a bullish continuation to the R4 @ 0.9805 with the overall target at the day chart top @ 0.8816. This pair moves slow but pays extremely well. The average daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 62 pips.…Continue
Added by Scott Barkley on July 9, 2013 at 1:11pm — No Comments
Deutsche Bank - "UK data has been unambiguously strong recently, but we remain bearish GBP. First, similar to the yen, we don't think outright growth matters for a currency, but how it translates into flow. For the UK, the odds are stronger data translate into weaker flow.
(...) Second, we don't think better growth numbers will translate into tighter monetary policy either. It is too early to justify a hawkish turn, with the output gap large and both household and government leverage…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 4, 2013 at 9:56am — No Comments
Rabobank - "The last few weeks have also seen the EUR push to better levels vs. the JPY. The gains, however have been moderate and EUR/JPY remains well below the levels achieved in May. We remain of the view that the yen can weaken over the medium term. The BoJ in April launched an extremely accommodative monetary policy and this should feed into a softer currency. However, the recent pullback in risk appetite is not conducive to significant yen slippage given the currency’s safe haven…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 3, 2013 at 5:49pm — No Comments
UBS - "EURCHF Bearish. Any upside should be limited with a strong resistance at 1.2384. Support is at 1.2278 ahead of 1.2196
EURGBP Neutral. The cross again bounced from the support at 0.8475. Resistance is at 0.8607 ahead of 0.8656. A closing break below 0.8475 would be negative opening 0.8398.
EURJPY Neutral. Resistance at 130.43 holds the upside move. A break above this would open 133.80. Support is at 124.72; a closing break below this would be negative.
EURUSD Bearish. With…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 28, 2013 at 9:05am — No Comments
UBS - "AUDUSD BEARISH The recent sell-off has put our focus on the momentum tools to cross lower to indicate resumption of downside. Support is at 0.9416 ahead of 0.9326. Resistance is at 0.9666.
USDCAD BEARISH Our focus is on the key support at 1.0120 ahead of 1.0027. Resistance is at 1.0226.
EURCHF BEARISH The sharp sell-off is held by the support at 1.2267. A closing break would trigger deeper sell-off to1.2196. Upside should be limited with strong resistance at 1.2386.
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 18, 2013 at 8:20am — No Comments
UBS - "USDCAD NEUTRAL The recent sharp sell-off tested support at 1.0169, a closing break below this would be negative, triggering a deeper sell-off to 1.0120 and then 1.0027. Resistance is at 1.0224.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.2419 ahead of 1.2460. Support is at 1.2354, a break below would open 1.2267.
EURGBP NEUTRAL The latest weakness is approaching support at 0.8475, a break below this would open 0.8421 and then 0.8398. Resistance is at 0.8527 ahead of 0.8607.
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 11, 2013 at 2:32pm — No Comments
Societé Generale - "If I thought that we were in for calmer times across markets, I would be very, very sorely tempted to come over all yen bearish again, right here and right now. Was $/Y 95 the low for a mini-cycle? The BOJ meeting tomorrow is one of several highlights this week (the German Constitutional Court on Wednesday, Australian employment data Thursday and US retail sales and industrial production data later in the week are others). I doubt they will do much, since the overall…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 10, 2013 at 8:24am — No Comments
Rabobank - "The June Bank of England policy meeting was never likely to be a game changer for sterling. That said, the UK economy has entered into an interesting phase. Finally there are sufficient signs of improvement in data releases to indicate that the country may be entering into a nascent economic recovery. The slightly better tone of economic data will be a relief to Governor King who retires at the end of the month after a difficult tenure. However, King has still left plenty of work…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 7, 2013 at 5:51pm — No Comments
Societé Generale - "Conviction views: the EM sell-off goes on. AUD, CAD, are still a sell. EUR/GBP remains a decent short. Paying 2yr/2yr US vs Europe will remain a core view. For all the market reaction to Draghi, I think the chances of -ive deposit rates in Europe have gone up: he clearly left that door open.
Planning ahead, I want to receive in European rates and buy Gilts relative to Treasuries long before selling EUR/USD. And we are having a flushout in yen shorts that will be an…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 7, 2013 at 12:00pm — No Comments