UBS - AUDUSD Any upside will be correction, unwinding the overextended downside conditions
UBS - "USDCAD BULLISH Initial resistance is at 1.0296, a break above this would open 1.0342 and then 1.0447. Support is at 1.0199.
AUDUSD BEARISH Any upside will be correction, unwinding the overextended downside conditions. Resistance is at 0.9831 ahead of 0.9918. The broader focus is for a test of major support at 0.9582.
EURCHF BULLISH With bullish trend in place, focus is on resistance at 1.2525, a break above which would open 1.2569. Support is at 1.2436 ahead of…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 21, 2013 at 9:59am — No Comments
UBS - EURJPY Bullish. A break above 132.77 to open 134.38 ahead of the more critical 138.49
UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH The pair is under pressure, trading close to Wednesday's low at 1.2843. A break below this would expose 1.2746 ahead of 1.2662. Resistance is at 1.2943 ahead of 1.3029.
EURCHF BULLISH With bullish trend in place, focus is on resistance at 1.2525, a break above this would open 1.2569. Support is at 1.2361.
EURGBP BEARISH With the MACD below its zero line, focus is on support at 0.8389. A break below this would expose the important 0.8587. There is an important…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 17, 2013 at 8:08am — No Comments
UBS - AUDUSD A break below 0.9821 would pave the way for further weakness to 0.9711
UBS - "USDCAD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.0217 ahead of 1.0294. Support is at 1.0082 ahead of 1.0014.
AUDUSD BEARISH Support is at 0.9821, a break below this would pave the way for further weakness to 0.9711. Resistance is at 1.0018.
EURCHF BULLISH With bullish trend in place, focus is on resistance at 1.2515, a break above this would open 1.2569. Support is at 1.2387.
EURGBP NEUTRAL There is an important resistance at 0.8546, a break above would open 0.8590. Support is at 0.8432…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 15, 2013 at 9:03am — No Comments
Westpac - Exit GBP/USD longs
Westpac - "We have run with a positive bias on GBP for some time now, having chosen to hold this via short EUR/GBP. On Feb 26, we recommended selling EUR/GBP on strength. On March 28 we recommend taking back half of that short position.
On April 11th, we recommended buying GBP outright on the grounds that it was under-owned and was likely to benefit more than most from an improved risk sentiment post the BoJ's QQME announcement. We established long GBP at 1.5333 and added on dips to…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 8, 2013 at 10:54am — No Comments
UBS - AUDUSD Bearish. Resistance at 1.0359 should hold any upside
UBS - "USDCAD NEUTRAL The pair is held by the strong support area at 1.0084/71. A break here would be a bearish development. Resistance is at 1.0175 ahead of 1.0214.
EURCHF BULLISH There is scope for more upside as bullish trend persists. Resistance is at 1.2312 ahead of 1.2349. Support is at 1.2240 and 1.2214.
EURGBP BEARISH The cross is testing important support at 0.8410. A closing break below would be a strong bearish development; triggering deeper sell-off to 0.8285.…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 30, 2013 at 9:30am — No Comments
UBS - EURUSD Neutral. A break above 1.3108 to open the more critical 1.3202 and then 1.3232
UBS - "EURCHF BULLISH There is scope for more upside and the next major resistance is at 1.2398. Support is at 1.2264.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Support is at 0.8497, a break below which would expose 0.8463 ahead of 0.8410. Resistance is at 0.8590 ahead of 0.8648.
EURJPY BULLISH As long as support at 127.82 holds, there is potential for the cross to extend its broader strength. Near-term resistance is at 130.70, a break above this would open 132.05.
EURUSD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.3108, a…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 25, 2013 at 10:46am — No Comments
Goldman Sachs - Sterling should resume its trend weaker
Goldman Sachs - "FX Forecasts: We continue to expect EUR/GBP to appreciate to 0.91, 0.94 and 0.94 in 3, 6 and 12 months. This implies GBP/$ at 1.49 flat. Current GSDEER for EUR/GBP is 0.80 and for GBP/$ is 1.47.
Motivation for Our FX View: While the first leg of EUR/GBP appreciation in 2H2012 was linked to the relaxation of Euro area tensions, GBP weakness has become more idiosyncratic in 2013. The forthcoming change in BoE leadership has created…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 23, 2013 at 5:59pm — No Comments
UBS - EURJPY BULLISH A break above 129.74 would open 132.05 ahead of 134.38
UBS - "EURCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.2213. Strong support is at 1.2120.
EURGBP BULLISH The cross came under pressure from resistance at 0.8648. A closing break above would be positive, opening 0.8747. Support is at 0.8490 ahead of 0.8436.
EURJPY BULLISH Initial resistance is at 129.74, a break above would open 132.05 ahead of 134.38. Support is at 126.44 ahead of 124.94.
EURUSD NEUTRAL Support is at 1.2974 ahead of 1.2920. Resistance is at 1.3126 ahead of the more critical…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 19, 2013 at 7:47am — No Comments
JP Morgan - The broader picture still inherits great down risks for GBP, except against JPY and EUR
JP Morgan - "The strong overshooting of key-Fib.-resistance at 1.5346 (minor 38.2 %) in Cable has caused a bit of a headache as it is currently unclear whether we are only dealing with an overshooting, internal 4th wave recovery or with a IInd wave on bigger scale. The latter could easily extend to 1.5775-88/1.5812 (200 DMA/int. 61.8 %/ monthly triangle) and possibly to 1.6014 (int. 76.4 %) where good risk rewards would be given to re-enter or to add to core short positions. A renewed break…
ContinueAdded by Francesc Riverola on April 17, 2013 at 8:01am — No Comments
Westpac - Out of short EUR/GBP into long GBP/USD
Westpac - "We have run with a positive bias on GBP for some time now, having chosen to hold this via short EUR/GBP. On Feb 26, we recommended selling EUR/GBP on strength, establishing a full short position at an average price of 0.8718. On March 28 we recommend taking back half of that short position at 0.8440.
We have hit our trailing stop (0.8585) on the balance of this position and have now closed it for a 2.36% return to our portfolio.
On April 11 we recommended rolling from…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 17, 2013 at 7:44am — No Comments
UBS - EURJPY BULLISH The risk is for resumption of strength as bullish trend persists
UBS - "EURCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.2173 ahead of 1.2213. Strong support is at 1.2120.
EURGBP NEUTRAL The cross is unwinding the sharp sell-off of March. Resistance is at 0.8560 ahead of 0.8602. Support is at 0.8463 ahead of 0.8410.
EURJPY BULLISH The risk is for resumption of strength as bullish trend persists. Resistance is at 128.03 ahead of 132.05. Support is at 123.70.
EURUSD NEUTRAL Support is at 1.2988, a break below this would expose 1.2896. Resistance is at 1.3138…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 16, 2013 at 8:04am — No Comments
RBS - A break of 1.5425 level to set a move to 1.56 as further short GBP/USD positions are squeezed
Royal Bank of Scotland - "An absence of new reasons to add to short GBP positions has continued to see a trimming of speculative positions, most noticeably in GBP/USD. However, the move in GBP/USD also reflects a more cautious USD environment, as the last set of US payroll numbers continue to lead to jitters about the strength of the US recovery and what this may mean for the tapering of the Fed's asset purchases. This is also reflected by the relative stability of EUR/GBP.
(...) The…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 15, 2013 at 7:41pm — No Comments
Westpac - Buy GBP/USD
Westpac - "We have run with a positive bias on GBP for some time now, having chosen to hold this via short EUR/GBP. On Feb 26, we recommended selling EUR/GBP on strength. On March 28 we recommend taking back half of that short position.
However, this trade has shown signs of maturing over the last week and a half as EUR has rebounded from recent lows. Kuroda’s QQME added to the Fed’s LSAP means we are entering a new phase of QE driven markets.
The BoJ will more than double the amount…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 11, 2013 at 10:06am — No Comments
UBS - EURJPY As trending indicators are firmly bullish, there is scope for test of critical resistance at 132.05
UBS - "EURCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.2230. There is a significant support at 1.2120; only a break below this would be a major bearish development.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Resistance is at 0.8602 ahead of 0.8648. Support is at 0.8463 ahead of 0.8410.
EURJPY BULLISH As trending indicators are firmly bullish, there is scope for test of critical resistance at 132.05 and then 134.48. Support is at 128.44 ahead of 126.76.
EURUSD NEUTRAL There is a strong resistance at 1.3115. A closing…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 10, 2013 at 8:07am — No Comments
BBH - Correlation between Euro and Sterling Breaks Down
Brown Brothers Harriman - "Euro-Sterling: On a 60-day and 90-day rolling basis, the correlation is the lowest since 2000 at 0.21 and 0.34 respectively. Rarely has the 60-day correlation fallen below 0.40 since the advent of the euro and rarely has the 90-day correlation fallen below 0.50.
The 60-day correlation was fairly stable most of last year, even as the EMU debt crisis ebbed and flowed. The breakdown began in January as sterling sold off while the euro did not peak until early…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 8, 2013 at 5:31pm — No Comments
UBS - EURUSD As bearish trend persists, focus is on initial support at 1.2751; EURJPY The risk is for extension of weakness
UBS - "EURCHF NEUTRAL There is a significant support at 1.2120. Resistance is at 1.2202 ahead of 1.2255.
EURGBP BEARISH The recovery over the past two days is to unwind the overextended downside conditions. Resistance is at 0.8557. Support is at 0.8410 ahead of 0.8364.
EURJPY BEARISH The risk is for extension of weakness. Focus is on critical support at 118.73, a break below this would expose 116.85. Resistance is at 121.87.
EURUSD BEARISH As bearish trend persists, focus is…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 3, 2013 at 8:00am — No Comments
RBS - EUR/GBP continues to look to be the place where GBP has the most potential to outperform; We would still look for opportunities to be short GBP/USD
Royal Bank of Scotland - "EUR/GBP continues to look to be the place where GBP has the most potential to outperform. The introduction of capital controls in Cyprus was important. The controls are due to be in place for a week, but in reality could be there for months, or potentially years. The longer they are in place, the greater the damage to financial market confidence and economic activity. The market is going to be on alert for any sign that capital is being moved out of other weaker…
ContinueAdded by Francesc Riverola on April 2, 2013 at 5:10pm — No Comments
Westpac - Take part profit on short EUR/GBP
Westpac - "On Feb 26, we recommended selling EUR/GBP on strength. At the time we recommended selling 1/3 unit of EUR/GBP at 0.8640, and adding on strength above 0.8690 and above 0.8730. We established a full short position at an average price of 0.8718. We recommend taking back half of that short position. EUR/GBP has dropped sharply (down 3% from our sell level), driven by concerns about Cyprus, Italy, Greece etc.
We still expect further weakness in EUR, but the speed of the decline in…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 28, 2013 at 5:11pm — No Comments
UBS - EURGBP A closing break below 0.8445 would be an important bearish development; EURUSD Scope for Weakness
UBS - "EURCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.2255 ahead of 1.2305. Support is at 1.2167 ahead of 1.2120.
EURGBP BEARISH There is a strong support at 0.8445 - a closing break below this would be an important bearish development. Resistance is at 0.8561 ahead of 0.8602.
EURJPY NEUTRAL The risk is for extension of the broader correction phase. Support is at 120.08 ahead of 118.73. Resistance is at 123.85 ahead of 126.04.
EURUSD BEARISH As bearish trend conditions persist, there is scope…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 27, 2013 at 9:44am — No Comments
JP Morgan - EUR/USD Targets Unchanged this Month. Risk Bias to the Downside
JP Morgan - "EUR/USD targets are unchanged this month – Q2 1.32 and Q4 1.34 – despite the turmoil in Cyprus, but the risk bias is to the downside. The corresponding targets for various crossrates are EUR/JPY 128 and 131, EUR/GBP 0.895 and 0.885, EUR/CHF 1.22 and 1.21, EUR/SEK 8.40 and 8.35, EUR/PLN 4.10 and 4.00 and EUR/MXN 16.24 and 16.35.
Alternative scenarios to our base-case view
Risk bias: Downside in Q2
Scenarios
Bearish:…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 26, 2013 at 6:33pm — No Comments
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