The rally from last month’s 2 year low extended last week. This 2nd up week in succession was a tentative move dominated by Monday’s gains and uncomfortable above .7900. In fact the last 5 trading days have oscillated around the important 13 day moving average. Although this clearly highlights a degree of uncertainty, and Friday’s close was marginally below the average line, 3cA studies are left mildly positive with potential through .7900 to .7932.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on October 13, 2014 at 6:56am — No Comments
Although the bulk of last week's price action showed marginal movement, the week ended with a powerful move higher. Friday’s gains – the most aggressive daily performance since March – dominated price action breaking an important Marabuzo line, testing the top of a now rising Keltner channel and, most importantly, completed a Bullish Morning Star pattern on weekly charts. This formation often signals a complete change of sentiment and so we see potential through .8011 to .8050 with .8124…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on August 4, 2014 at 7:29am — No Comments
“Stock market bubbles don’t grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality, but reality as distorted by a misconception.” George Soros 9th July 2014.
We are seeing the first few down days in a row for the S&P in some time. Should the markets correct…Continue
Added by Gary on July 9, 2014 at 7:11am — No Comments
“It’s about getting things down to one number. Using the stats the way we read them, we’ll find value in players that no one else can see. People are overlooked for a variety of biased reasons and perceived flaws. Age, appearance, personality. Bill James and mathematics cut straight through…Continue
Added by Gary on July 8, 2014 at 8:14am — No Comments
“I’m not afraid to raise interest rates. I raised interest rates in Canada. I have not an issue with doing that if it’s appropriate.” Mark Carney – Governor of The Bank Of England
2nd July 2014. Interesting times. Cable at a five year high even though…Continue
Added by Gary on July 2, 2014 at 7:42am — No Comments
26th June 2014. If you recall Q1 in the United States was all about the bad weather and the restraining effect that was having on economic activity, but that was a terrible Q1 GDP number out of the states yesterday. I am starting to have some sympathy for Janet Yellen’s “catch 22”. …Continue
Added by Gary on June 26, 2014 at 8:19am — No Comments
“Your business with the tape is now – not tomorrow. The reason can wait. But you must act instantly or be left. Time and again I see this happen.” Jesse Livermore
June 13th 2014. Sometimes we notice trends and trade those trends however it only…Continue
Added by Gary on June 13, 2014 at 7:04am — No Comments
Investors bought the cross to higher levels for a 3rd day in succession. However, although the market traded comfortably through the key 13 day avg, levels beyond that point were not maintained into the close. So despite this week's gains so far, it is the failure to extend beyond that point that signals a weakness of demand.
Coupled with the underlying negative tone reflected by the steady decline from March's high we look for a renewal of selling pressure with scope to .8104 and…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on May 30, 2014 at 6:16am — No Comments
Although EURGBP traded to our 1st upside target Tue, gains above the 13 day moving average proved limited. The resulting reversal proved the relevance of that avg with selling pressure taking prices through an important Marabuzo line and a 76% correction to this year’s upside. Although sentiment is now oversold, providing potential for profit taking, the focus remains on the downside with potential to .8191, .8174 or even .8158.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on April 30, 2014 at 6:14am — No Comments
"EUR – what crisis?
Looking ahead, we expect the EUR to retain its resilient tone, even though there is a risk that…Continue
Added by Daologic on April 10, 2014 at 9:30am — No Comments
Monday’s failure at the top of the Ichimoku Cloud proved important yesterday as selling interest returned to the cross. The resulting strong decline- the most aggressive of this month – took EURGBP through the bottom of the Cloud and to the most negative levels for 5 weeks. Intraday signals for sentiment are oversold but rallies should now be temporary and limited with potential to .8215, then .8189.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on April 9, 2014 at 8:47am — No Comments
"EURUSD: The pair itself was net sold, but flows through the euro overall
were finely balanced. Hedge fund sellers ran into corporates on the bid.
USDJPY, EURJPY: The yen was net sold in aggregate, but USDJPY flows were
USDCHF, EURCHF: The Swiss franc was net bought, both through EURCHF and
USDCHF. Turnover was only 82% of normal though, and hedge fund…
Added by Daologic on April 1, 2014 at 5:29am — No Comments
The steady grind to retracement support at 0.8160 occurred with a basing in momentum. The recent break above 0.8305 (declining resistance) is now gaining support from a potential roll upwards in momentum.
This break above 0.8305 could trigger larger up-moves (to mirror the rally from mid 2012), but the…
Added by Daologic on March 28, 2014 at 6:00am — No Comments
The EURGBP continued its bullish momentum yesterday , printed support at the 0.8343 levels . This development leaves the pair targeting the 0.8400 levels where a breach is likely , If seen , It will target the 0.8450 levels , a halt is likely , but break of the 0.8450 levels would open 0.8500 next , further upside will aim the 0.8540 levels .
On the downside , support comes at the 0.8380 levels ahead of the 0.8343 levels ( main ) , losing the 0.8343 levels on a daily closing basis…Continue
Added by Haitham653 on March 25, 2014 at 7:58am — No Comments
"GBP – how strong is it really?
The Bank of England tends not to make a habit of talking about sterling. However, the minutes of the December MPC meeting contained the phrase that “any further…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 24, 2014 at 11:13am — No Comments
With both the trending and momentum indicators below their respective
moving averages, there’s scope for more downside, with supports at
1.3722 and 1.3664. Resistance is at 1.3858 ahead of 1.3967.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Near-term resistance is at 102.79, a break above this would open 103.76.
Support is at 101.20, a break below this would expose 100.76.
Having tested this morning the support…
Added by Daologic on March 24, 2014 at 9:47am — No Comments
With EUR/USD possibly losing upward momentum as it approaches 1.40, it may be better to sell EUR/GBP to express a long GBP view, especially with the FOMC potentially creating volatility in USD. The chart below suggests that the rates spread favours some decline in EUR/GBP. "…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 19, 2014 at 6:30am — No Comments
Added by Daologic on March 17, 2014 at 8:30am — No Comments
With bullish conditions in place, there’s more upside potential to test the
critical resistance at 1.4052. Any setbacks in the interim will be corrective
and limited to support at 1.3834 and then 1.3780.
USDJPY NEUTRAL The latest decline was staged from the important resistance at 103.65.
Support is at 101.20 ahead of 100.76. Near-term resistance is at 102.18.
GBPUSD BULLISH The recent setback doesn’t…
Added by Daologic on March 17, 2014 at 7:46am — No Comments
"Trading Summary | While the air above is thinning, we hold to our long EUR/USD tactical view. GBP/USD has more upside and this may pressure EUR/GBP lower. European currencies remain favoured over Asia FX as investors chase risk adjusted carry returns in a vol crushed world. Stay with long GBP/JPY as the BoE falls further behind in the Race Not to Tighten First. USD/CAD to trade lower initially as spot catches up with rate spreads.…Continue