Currently we are at 1.4644 in a bear flag. We are looking for a break and then a continuation to the S7 area @ 1.4557. The average daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 128 pips.…Continue
Added by Scott Barkley on May 16, 2014 at 1:10pm — No Comments
"OPEN TRADE – March 27
Sell EURAUD at 1.4839
Target of 1.45; Stop of 1.4839 (revised)
There is a window for the AUD to overshoot and the
EUR’s topside potential should be severely limited by
the ECB lifting the FX issue to front and centre of its
policy communication strategy. We have dropped the
stop on this trade to cost though as equity market
volatility may limit the shelf life of this trade.
Added by Daologic on April 11, 2014 at 4:30am — No Comments
"Recent Trade Recommendations
OPEN TRADE – 27 March
Sell EURAUD at 1.4839
Target of 1.4200; Stop of 1.4960
This trade remains just about alive but might regain
momentum in the near-term if today’s ECB policy
messaging gets a little more traction with the market.
EURAUD losses should pick up below 1.4820/30.
OPEN TRADE – 20 February
Buy USDCAD at 1.1106
Added by Daologic on April 4, 2014 at 5:30am — No Comments
"NEW TRADE – March 27
Sell EURAUD at current spot (1.4839)
Target of 1.42; Stop of 1.4960
We had the right view here directionally earlier in the
month but executed poorly and our short
recommendation was quickly stopped out. Now, with
the cross below 1.50, technical factors turning more
negative and fundamental prospects—focus on
downside risks for Eurozone inflation data and the ECB
policy meeting next…
Added by Daologic on March 28, 2014 at 4:53am — No Comments
Added by Daologic on March 11, 2014 at 8:40am — No Comments
Sell EURAUD at 1.5330
Target of 1.45; Stop of 1.5510
"The ECB is not easing but it’s not tightening for a long time either. Meanwhile, better Australian data point to more focus on RBA policy prospects (we expect rates to move up late this year). Narrowing spreads risk pulling EURAUD sharply lower through the balance of the year and technical signals point to a possible trend reversal. Sell into modest EURAUD gains from here."
Added by Daologic on March 7, 2014 at 6:27am — No Comments
"FX Set-up: AUD Firmer on GDP, EURAUD in Play
The AUD is the top-performer on the session…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 5, 2014 at 12:28pm — No Comments
"FX Set-up: Watching the AUD
There are no major data releases in Australia this week (just construction and credit data) but we think the AUD is worth keeping an eye on from here. …Continue
Added by Daologic on February 24, 2014 at 12:30pm — No Comments
It’s interesting to note that the AUD is shaping up positively on another key cross—versus the EUR. Reversal signs here are not quite so unequivocal as in AUDNZD but EURAUD doe appear to be carving out a potential Head & Shoulders top (neckline trigger currently 1.4972—coinciding with the major high/low pivot…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 24, 2014 at 6:57am — No Comments
"Why We Like Shorting EURAUD
There are three key reasons why investors should position for the EUR/AUD cross to head lower.
Central Bank Policy / Diverging fundamentals: TD’s long held view is for the RBA to hike rates in 2014 but for the ECB to remain on hold. While the view on the ECB is consensus, the outlook for the RBA is not, but judging by market pricing, market thinking is changing. Last week the RBA shifted its guidance on rates to rule out further easing.…
Added by Daologic on February 14, 2014 at 6:09am — No Comments
"The recent improvement in domestic data, together with the RBA shifting to a neutral bias, has supported the AUD in recent weeks, but we remain strategically bearish.
Overnight the ECB struck a more neutral tone than anticipated as inflation remains low, but growth and lending conditions continue to improve.
Long EUR/AUD provides an opportunity to go short AUD with a good risk/reward profile. It should outperform in either an environment of rising US yields, or in one where risk…
Added by Daologic on February 7, 2014 at 7:10am — No Comments
Currently we are at 1.5042 after the break down of the pole pattern. We are looking for a bearish continuation to the support area @ 1.4992 and 2) the next target is @ 1.4920. The average daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 172 pips.…Continue
Added by Scott Barkley on February 6, 2014 at 2:23pm — No Comments
"Stay long EUR/AUD and EUR/JPY with moves towards EUR/AUD1.61 and EUR/JPY150-155 likely.
Further GBP gains on the crosses are also likely and a sustained close above 1.8250 in GBP/AUD should target a move towards 2.00.
Into next week's FOMC meeting, the USD may trade with a firmer poise against the majors.
EUR/USD has reacted off resistance around this year's highs above 1.38. Into next week's FOMC meeting, as expectations of a possible December taper rise, the USD may gain some…
Added by Daologic on December 12, 2013 at 5:15pm — No Comments
Currently we are at 1.4761 sitting on the 1.618 Fibo. Although we have seen a nice move we still have some room and are looking for a bullish continuation to the 2.270 Fibo area @ 1.4837. The average daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 121 pips.…Continue
Added by Scott Barkley on November 22, 2013 at 2:07pm — No Comments
Currently we are at 1.4407 and stuck in a day chart wedge. We are looking for a move to the 0.500 Fibo @ 1.4328 - the next target the 0.786 Fibo @ 1.4220. The average daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 124 pips.…Continue
Added by Scott Barkley on November 13, 2013 at 2:12pm — No Comments
Currently we are at 1.4168 in a descending wedge. If it breaks down we are looking for a continuation to the 1.618 Fibo area @ 1.4122 and maybe to the 1.4074 ( 2.270 fibo), The average daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 126 pips.…Continue
Added by Scott Barkley on October 18, 2013 at 1:09pm — No Comments
Currently we are at 1.3962 in a channel. We are looking for a bullish continuation to the R5 area @ 1.4026-37area. The average daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 121 pips.…Continue
Added by Scott Barkley on October 1, 2013 at 12:47pm — No Comments
Currently we are at 1.4374 after the break north of the wedge. We are looking for a bullish continuation to the R4 area @ 1.4426 The average daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 138 pips.…Continue
Added by Scott Barkley on September 20, 2013 at 12:59pm — No Comments
Currently we are at 1.4872 in a potential head and shoulders reversal pattern. A couple of different scenarios. 1: bullish: a move above 1.4900 to the Double top @ 1.4997 area 2: Bearish : A break down here to complete the pattern to the 1.4726 area . The average daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 159 pips.…Continue
Added by Scott Barkley on August 7, 2013 at 12:55pm — No Comments