JP Morgan - "Risk scenarios to accompany Q4 2012 FX forecasts
Risk bias: Balanced in Q4
Potential trigger events: FOMC meetings on Oct 24 and Dec 12; China data each month; China Communist Party Congress this fall (no date set yet); Greek negotiations with troika; ECB meetings on Oct 4, Nov 8 and Dec 6; EU leaders’ summit October 18-19.
USD bearish: (1) US 10-yr inflation breakevens reach 3%, triggering a…
Added by Francesc Riverola on October 2, 2012 at 2:34pm — No Comments
At the moment of writing, EURUSD is trading below R1 at 1.2955 and above S1 at 1.2830 ,intraday bias remains neural as long as 1.2955 holds , break above this level would confirm resumption from 1.2042 and target R2 at 1.3080 and R3 at 1.3205 !!
But in return, a break below 1.2835 would extend the consolidation toward S2 at 1.2710, losing this level would mean that the bullish momentum in short term is gone…Continue
UBS - "EURUSD BULLISH A break above 1.2988 would signal fresh extension of gains to 1.3031 and then, 1.3085. Support lies at 1.2804 ahead of 1.2758.
USDJPY BEARISH Only a closing break above 78.12 would signal scope for extension of the recovery to 78.54 and then, 79.22. Support lies at 77.44 ahead of 77.13."
Added by Francesc Riverola on October 2, 2012 at 12:03pm — No Comments
NBF Currency Outlook*
Current 1-Oct-12; 2012Q4; 2013Q1; 2013Q2; 2013Q3; 2013Q4
USD/CAD 0.98 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.98
US cents per CAD 1.02 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.02
EUR/USD 1.29 1.23 1.27 1.30 1.32 1.30
USD/JPY 78 77 79 80 81 81
AUD/USD 1.04 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.06 1.04
GBP/USD 1.62 1.58 1.63 1.65 1.67 1.65
USD/CNY 6.28 6.31 6.29 6.27 6.25 6.20
AUD/CAD 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.03 1.02
* forecasts for end of quarter
Source: NBF Economic…
Added by Francesc Riverola on October 2, 2012 at 9:09am — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "EUR/USD A bearish engulfing Friday should dictate today
SUP: 1.2823 1.2747 1.2701
RES: 1.2959 1.3172
Strategy: The bearish engulfing candle from Friday should dictate the theme today, wider stops require¡ above Friday’s highs at 1.2980 looking for moves to 1.2747 overall
GBP/USD Looks set to trouble the lower band at 1.5951
SUP: 1.6071 1.5951
RES: 1.6261 1.6302/09
Strategy: Expect the 1.6302 level…
Added by Francesc Riverola on October 2, 2012 at 9:00am — No Comments
During last week, gold and silver slightly declined as the recent developments in Greece, Spain and Italy that included riots against austerity measures may have pulled down not only bullion rates but also the Euro. By the end of the week, the release of…Continue
Added by Lior Cohen on October 1, 2012 at 9:12am — No Comments
As shown on the daily chart posted below, the EURUSD is in consolidation mode- in medium term - after losing the key support 1.2940 which is served now as resistance!
A clear break with stability above 1.2940 would be a sign of very persistent bullish momentum, and then price action is testing 1.3075/1.3170 levels A.S.A.P!
But in return, a clear break below 1.2815 would delay the bullish move and extend the consolidation toward the key support 1.2685;…Continue
Precious metals zigzagged throughout the week with an unclear trend despite the deprecation of the Euro and other "risk currencies" during last week. There were several reports that were published during the previous week: the U.S GDP growth rate was revised down to 1.3%;…Continue
Added by Lior Cohen on September 29, 2012 at 4:32pm — No Comments
As shown on the 60 min chart below , bearish breakout has been already confirmed at 1.2890, an hourly closing below this level followed by RSI break below 40 level , would add strong bearish momentum in short term testing 1.2850/1.2800 levels,1.2890 would serve as resistance , If RSI holds above 40, the EURUSD will be in consolidation mode in short term !!
But in return, a failure to close below 1.2890 might give us a positive reversal signal testing 1.2940 once again, a clear break…Continue
Added by Haitham653 on September 28, 2012 at 2:32pm — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD NEUTRAL A break above 1.3001 would signal scope for a move to 1.3041 and even, 1.3172. The important support lies at 1.2758.
GBPUSD BULLISH The risk is for further upside in the near-term. Resistance is at 1.6309 ahead of 1.6455. Support lies at 1.6160 ahead of 1.6124."
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 28, 2012 at 1:31pm — No Comments
Following the decline of precious metals during most of the week, they have changed direction as both gold and silver pulled up on Thursday along with the rest of the market including oil prices, the Euro and major stock markets. This rally came despite the lower than anticipated growth in GDP for…Continue
Added by Lior Cohen on September 28, 2012 at 9:03am — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "EUR/USD
EURUSD suddenly looks like it has based at 1.2823
SUP: 1.2823 1.2747 1.2701 RES: 1.3172
Strategy: If possible tuck stops sub 1.2823 at 1.2810 looking for moves higher after the bullish engulfing candle looking for moves back towards 1.3100
1.6302: Thou shall not pass!
SUP: 1.6117 1.6000/51 RES: 1.6261 1.6302/09
Strategy: Expect the 1.6302 level to be strong…
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 28, 2012 at 8:00am — No Comments
Europe's single currency rallied and the US dollar fell against multiple major currencies following the presentation of Spain's 2013 budget.Continue
Added by Curt Wehrley on September 28, 2012 at 3:27am — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD NEUTRAL The risk is for further correction to 1.2758 - a break below would open the way to 1.2608. Resistance is at 1.3003 ahead of 1.3043.
USDCHF NEUTRAL The important resistance is at 0.9467. As long as this holds, the risk remains for resumption of weakness. Support lies at 0.9304 ahead of 0.9239."
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 27, 2012 at 1:17pm — No Comments
You couldn't summarize current EU situation better
Nomura - "Key views:
1. Spain to call for ECCL by end October
2. After phase of relative calm, markets to test the backstop
3. Italy remains very exposed and will likely require ECCL too, after market pressure
4. GDP contraction and higher NPLs remain the key challenges
5. Debt trajectory to continue rising faster than expected
6. Banking Union timeline too ambitious
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 27, 2012 at 9:48am — No Comments
Is it just me, or has the euro increasingly tended to wake up as the sun rises over the US east coast?
Take Tuesday's price action on the EUR/USD currency pair: Stuck in a tight trading range during the entire London session, then got moving soon before the open of the New York morning session.
I've crunched some data, and the results…Continue
Added by Curt Wehrley on September 27, 2012 at 4:10am — No Comments
As shown on the daily chart posted below, the pair trades now around critical levels, a trend continuation - of the bullish breakout 1.2392 - around 1.2815/1.2870 levels is suggested, %R indicator is in oversold area, a daily closing out of oversold area with stability above 1.2815 would give us strong bullish signal on medium term ,It would increase the risk toward 1.3212 forming a newer high, then we need to evaluate pairs activities around that level If manage to reach it…Continue
Rabobank - "While we have been arguing that the EMU crisis has moved closer to its end game, it is very clear that that there is still a long way to go. October promises to be a testing month for Spain and in this environment we see risk of pullbacks for EUR/USD towards the 1.2600 area. That said, with the fiscal cliff in the US nearing and on the back of the Fed’s very accommodative monetary policy we see any bouts of USD strength as likely to be short-lived and expect that EUR/USD will…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 26, 2012 at 10:18am — No Comments
RBS - "EUR/USD: EURUSD Short term bias is bearish to the support between 1.2700/47
SUP: 1.2823 1.2747 1.2701; RES: 1.2906 1.3172
Strategy: Keep short into the 1.2700/47 region using the 5 day moving average as a dynamic stop loss.
GBP/USD: GBP/USD heads back to the Summer support
SUP: 1.6117 1.6000/51
RES: 1.6261 1.6309
Strategy: Expect price action to be short term heavy until at least the support around 1.6000/51
EUR/GBP: Buy opportunity in the cross…
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 26, 2012 at 10:00am — No Comments
The prices gold and silver remained nearly unchanged yesterday and thus they have both continued their unclear trend from last week. Yesterday, President of Federal Bank of Philadelphia commented on the recent decision of the…Continue
Added by Lior Cohen on September 26, 2012 at 9:51am — No Comments