JP Morgan - FX Forecasts: End-2012
Targets with previous forecast in parentheses are now:
EUR/USD 1.30 (1.24),
GBP/USD 1.62 (1.58),
AUD/USD 1.04 (1.02),
USD/CAD 0.98 (1.02),
USD/CNY 6.32 (6.30),
USD/KRW 1125 (1150),
USD/ZAR 8.50 (8.30),
USD/RUB 30.84 (32.27),
EUR/CZK 25.00 (25.80),
EUR/PLN 4.10 (4.25) and EUR/TRY 2.34 (2.23).
Year-end forecasts are left unchanged for USD/JPY 78, USD/BRL 1.98, USD/MXN 12.50 and EUR/HUF…
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 24, 2012 at 4:14pm — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BULLISH As long as 1.2916, there is scope for resumption of strength. A break above 1.3085 would expose 1.3172. The next main support lies at 1.2837.
GBPUSD BULLISH Resistance is at 1.6455 ahead of 1.6618. Any downside moves will be corrective. Support lies at 1.6164 ahead of 1.6124."
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 24, 2012 at 3:37pm — No Comments
During last week, gold and silver prices remained nearly unchanged, despite the FOMC decision to commence with QE3. There were several reports that were published during last week that may have had a modest effect on the bullion market. These reports were: the…Continue
Added by Lior Cohen on September 24, 2012 at 11:02am — No Comments
Westpac - "AUD/USD: The calendar isn’t pivotal this week, leaving AUD/USD to gyrate anywhere from 1.0325 to 1.0565 on headlines from Asia (probably negative) and Europe (positive?). RBA Oct easing pricing shouldn’t fall much below 60%.
NZD/USD: Global central bank stimulus should support the NZD for some time but the market needs a fresh catalyst to break above 0.8350 major resistance. Upon such a break, we would target…
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 24, 2012 at 9:52am — No Comments
Precious metals prices didn't do much during last week despite the publication of the FOMC decision to start its stimulus plan. There were several reports that were published during last week: the Philly Fed index rose by 5 points but was still negative;…Continue
Added by Lior Cohen on September 23, 2012 at 4:47pm — No Comments
UBS - EURUSD: BULLISH The corrective pullback stalled just above support at 1.2916 – a move below would trigger deeper correction to 1.2837. Resistance is at 1.3085-1.3172.
USDCHF: BEARISH Resistance is at 0.9380 ahead of 0.9420. Support lies at 0.9239, a break below this level would resume weakness to 0.9195- 0.9104.
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 21, 2012 at 2:37pm — No Comments
The prices gold and silver remained nearly unchanged for the fifth consecutive business day after they had increased precipitately during the first couple of weeks of September. The depreciation of the Euro along with other "risk currencies" may have curbed the rally of precious metals. The…Continue
Added by Lior Cohen on September 21, 2012 at 12:29pm — No Comments
Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi - Ranges & Outlook for the week ahead
USD/JPY – bullish bias – (77.70-79.20)
EUR/USD – neutral bias – (1.2800-1.3200)
USD/CNY – bullish bias – (6.3000-6.3300)
USD/INR – neutral bias – (53.50-55.50)
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 21, 2012 at 8:11am — No Comments
BNZ - "Looking ahead, there is little on the data calendar tonight. We doubt the weekend’s G20 meeting will produce anything particularly meaningful. So markets look set to end the week a little more downbeat than how they began. With the risks to global growth again tipping to the downside, risk appetite may struggle to retain its post-QE3 buoyancy in the short-term. This should limit the AUD/USD and…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 21, 2012 at 8:06am — No Comments
very very interesting view by Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi
Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi - "The EUR/USD rate advanced from an intra-day low of 1.2043 on 24th July to an intra-day high of 1.3172 on Monday, a 9.4% gain, which was fuelled primarily by initial speculation and then confirmation of the ECB bond buying program (OMT – Outright Monetary Transactions) and by speculation and then confirmation of a third round of quantitative easing by the Federal…
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 20, 2012 at 4:19pm — No Comments
Westpac - "US$ outlook: DXY should consolidate initially but with the backdrop of Fed QE and lower Eurozone tail risk, DXY should be rebuffed at 80, slipping back to 78.
As noted above, DXY should see some two way price action, with EUR/USD potentially probing 1.2850 initially. However, so long as markets don’t get too impatient with the Spanish govt as it weighs applying for ESM/ECB help, EUR/USD should be well supported on dips. There still looks to…
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 20, 2012 at 9:23am — No Comments
UBS - EURUSD BULLISH The important support lies at 1.2916. Downside moves appears to be limited and will be corrective as long as this level holds. Resistance is at 1.3122/72.
USDJPY NEUTRAL A break below 77.93 would signal resumption of weakness to 77.46 and even, 77.13. Resistance is at 79.29/66.
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 20, 2012 at 8:46am — No Comments
The greenback rally during today's London session fizzled as the sun rose over the US east coast. The EUR/USD currency pair rose 70 pips above the 1.30 level during the latter half of the European trading day.
Currency Strategist & Trader Coach…
Added by Curt Wehrley on September 20, 2012 at 12:49am — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BULLISH There is scope for consolidation following the test of 1.3151 Fibonacci resistance. The next important resistance is at 1.3284. Support lies at 1.2980."
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 18, 2012 at 11:14am — No Comments
UBS - "The dollar has fallen to four month lows below 1.31 against the euro following the Fed's decision to a start a third round of quantitative easing. In anticipation of the Fed's announcement, we had lowered our shorter-term forecasts for EURUSD to 1.30 (1m) and 1.25 (3m) early last week. However, how weak the dollar trades over the next few weeks will also depend on the actions of other central banks, which we think are likely to engage in further easing measures as well. That should…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 18, 2012 at 8:02am — No Comments
HSBC - "Whilst the current goodwill towards the EUR remains, the EUR-CHF floor will clearly not come under serious pressure. Our view is that US fiscal woes will become the main focus of the market as we head into the US presidential election. Whilst bad news would usually be expected to lead to USD strength and EUR weakness, we believe that the US-specific nature of such bad news will lead to USD weakness, not EUR weakness. The political events in the US would keep the market focused on the…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 18, 2012 at 7:52am — No Comments
Nomura - "On Friday, we recommended short EUR/MXN, based on the notion that further euro upside would be constrained by continued growth weakness, and continued structural weakness in eurozone capital flows. However, we are not sure yet about the right timing for fresh EURUSD shorts (and we intend to present some detailed analytical work on the euro separately). Another relatively value trade we are also sticking with is AUD/NZD, which we have had on for a while."
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 18, 2012 at 7:31am — No Comments
JP Morgan - J.P. Morgan forecasts: rates, credit, equities & commodities…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 17, 2012 at 2:24pm — No Comments
UBS - EURUSD BULLISH The pair continues to extend its strength. Resistance is at 1.3284, a break above would extend gains to 1.3386. Support lies at 1.2980.
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 17, 2012 at 8:24am — No Comments
The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum last week topped at 1.3168 and closed at 1.3127...
Before we start looking to the next week, I’d like first to take a quick look to most important support and resistance levels on daily chart!!
I’m gonna start from top to down!!!
1-Low of 01 Nov 2011 at 1.3608
2 Low of 09 Nov 2011 at 1.3520
3-Low of 03 Apr 2012 at 1.3212 (Monthly Resistance).
4-Low of 02 Mar 2012 at 1.3186 (Weekly…Continue