The EURUSD corrected higher yesterday, closed at 1.2930 above the key resistance 1.2885, this scenario suggests that recovery from 1.2802 might still in progress and more gains are suggested as long as 1.2802 holds !!!
However, In short term outlook, consolidation from 1.3171 still active,a clear break with daily close above 1.3000 would flip bias back to the upside and target 1.3171 levels, but in return losing 1.2885 would threat 1.2760 levels , losing 1.2760 would mean…Continue
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "The performance of EUR/USD since setting its most recent intra-day low of 1.2043 on 24th July is certainly indicative of investor scepticism over recent policy steps taken to arrest the euro-zone crisis. The move higher incorporated two key policy steps – the announcement of OMT by the ECB and QE3 by the Federal Reserve. On QE3 alone if the move from that July low to the September high of 1.3172 is complete, it would mark the smallest dollar sell-off of the three…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on October 11, 2012 at 6:55pm — No Comments
The prices of gold and silver didn’t do much yesterday as both precious metals edged up for the first time this week. The uncertainty around the future steps of Spain and whether it will request from ECB to start its bond purchase program is likely to keep the Euro weak against the USD. Currently, the prices of gold and silver are falling. On today's agenda: G7 Summit, IMF Meeting,…Continue
Added by Lior Cohen on October 11, 2012 at 10:41am — No Comments
"Despite the PBoC’s efforts to support growth via domestic demand, Chinese exports remain vulnerable to weak demand in the EU; its main trading partner. Not only that but reports of increased central bank diversification into the AUD refer to previous periods. Given liquidity concerns, there are no guarantees that this demand will continue to gather pace. Indeed, if confidence in the coherence of EMU increases in 2013, diversification trades could stagnant or even reverse if EUR…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on October 10, 2012 at 9:57am — No Comments
The EURUSD declined strongly yesterday , after losing the key support mentioned previously 1.2990,trades now below 1.2900 levels.
This situation indicates that pull back from 1.3171 might not completed yet ,consolidation from 1.3171 is still in progress as long as stability is below 1.3000 levels, stability below the key resistance1.2885 would extend the consolidation toward 1.2770 , losing the key support 1.2770 would mean that the bullish momentum in short…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on October 9, 2012 at 10:46am — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BULLISH Near-term resistance is at 1.3072, a break above would signal resumption of strength opening the way to critical 1.3172. Support lies at 1.2878/04.
USDJPY BEARISH A break below 77.99 would reinforce the bearish themes opening the door to 77.44/13. Resistance is at 78.87 ahead of 79.22."
Added by Francesc Riverola on October 9, 2012 at 7:37am — No Comments
Bank of America Merrill Lynch - Quarterly forecasts
Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13
EUR-USD 1.31 1.23 1.22 1.21 1.20 1.20
USD-JPY 79 78 80 82 84 85
EUR-JPY 103 96 98 99 101 102
USD-CAD 0.97 1.02 1.02 1.01 1.01 1.01
AUD-USD 1.03 1.01 0.98 0.98 0.96 0.94
NZD-USD 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.79 0.78 0.78
EUR-GBP 0.81 0.78 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.78
GBP-USD 1.62 1.58 1.53…
Added by Francesc Riverola on October 8, 2012 at 2:01pm — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "EUR/USD: Friday’s doji reversal should weigh heavy on price action
SUP: 1.2959 1.2823 1.2747 1.2701
RES: 1.3172 1.3284
Strategy: Short here, stop through Friday’s high at 1.3090 and target 1.2823 overall
GBP/USD: Keep wider stops and fade any further rallies
SUP: 1.6071 1.5951
RES: 1.6261 1.6302/09
Strategy: Medium term shorts to 1.56 on a stop above 1.63 at 1.6330, short term positions with a stop above 1.6146 targeting…
Added by Francesc Riverola on October 8, 2012 at 1:30pm — No Comments
Danske Bank - "EUR/USD - Builds for a challenge on 1.3486/91 and 1.3833
Strategy Summary - Stay long or buy on dips for further gains to 1.3491 & possibly 1.3833. Place a stop under either 1.2740 or 1.2607.
EUR/PLN - A fresh medium term down leg is favoured to start unfolding
Strategy Summary - Look to sell for a medium term bear extension through 4.0255, towards the 3.8840/3.8220 region. Place a stop above…
Added by Francesc Riverola on October 8, 2012 at 1:26pm — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BULLISH A break above 1.3072 would signal scope for the recent strength to carry on targeting 1.3172. Support lies at 1.2878.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL A break above 1.6217 would open the doors for fresh extension of gains to 1.6273 and then 1.6309. Support lies at 1.6067/11."
Added by Francesc Riverola on October 8, 2012 at 1:16pm — No Comments
The EURUSD had a bullish momentum last week, topped at 1.3070, but closed lower at 1.3030, the bias is bullish in short term testing the area 1.3085/1.3175 as long as 1.2990 holds,a clear break above 1.3175 would confirm resumption from 1.2042 and target 1.3500 levels , but in return a clear break below 1.2990 - daily / 4 hour close - could lead price back to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.2900/1.2810 zone, but any move below 1.2990 is supposed to be contained by…Continue
During last week, gold and silver prices remained nearly unchanged. The Aussie dollar declined against the USD mainly due to RBA's decision to lower the cash rate by 25pp. This development may have contributed to the unclear trend of precious metals. There were several reports that were…Continue
Added by Lior Cohen on October 7, 2012 at 6:34pm — No Comments
Precious metals shifted with an unclear trend throughout the week with an unclear trend despite the appreciation of the Euro and several "risk currencies" during last week. On the other hand the Aussie dollar declined against the UDS mainly due to RBA's…Continue
Added by Lior Cohen on October 6, 2012 at 7:24am — No Comments
Finally, the pair managed to break above the key resistance 1.2965 yesterday, and broke out of consolidation, showing positive momentum in short term, eyes on 1.3115/1.3265 today!!
According to daily RSI, we have strong bullish momentum; price action is testing 1.3115/1.3265 levels, but be careful around 1.3115 we might see some pause (fluctuation), any fall below 1.3000 would be supported well by…Continue
The EURUSD traded with small range yesterday, almost 70 pips, looks like the pair's looking for an explosion , today we have important events; the ECB rate decision from EURO zone, most likely ECB will leave it unchanged but any decrease in rate would challenge 1.2800 level, which is protected strongly by the daily %R indicator, from United States we have Jobless claims , the previous is 359K, the forecast is : 369K , If It goes this way as expected , EURUSD would break upward…Continue
Added by Haitham653 on October 4, 2012 at 5:26am — No Comments
HSBC - "US: QE = USD negative: Resultant “risk on” mood takes us to higher yielding more risky currencies. “Risk off” and the USD’s safe haven status kicks in.
Eurozone: QE = EUR positive: Non-conventional easing as lowering the probability of EUR default and disintegration, thereby boosting the EUR.
Japan: QE = mild JPY positive: JGB purchases have little JPY effect, but equity market boost encourages foreign capital inflows.…
Added by Francesc Riverola on October 3, 2012 at 8:12am — No Comments
The EURUSD continued increasing yesterday almost 90 pips, but the pair was rejected strongly from the key resistance mentioned yesterday at 1.2955 and closed below this level showing some weakness in short term...
At the moment of writing EURUSD is trading at the middle range of R1 at 1.2965 and S1 at 1.2825
Stability above 1.2900 might test 1.2965, and stability below 1.2900 would keep pressure toward 1.2825…Continue
The US dollar declined against the major European currencies for the second consecutive trading day. High risk-to-reward long trade setups on the EUR/USD and GBP/USD currency pairs materialized during the third hour of the New York morning session.
Seeking 1-on-1 mentoring? Email me >> curt (at) fxbootcamp (dot) com
Added by Curt Wehrley on October 2, 2012 at 10:04pm — No Comments
JP Morgan - "Risk scenarios to accompany Q4 2012 FX forecasts
Risk bias: Balanced in Q4
Potential trigger events: FOMC meetings on Oct 24 and Dec 12; China data each month; China Communist Party Congress this fall (no date set yet); Greek negotiations with troika; ECB meetings on Oct 4, Nov 8 and Dec 6; EU leaders’ summit October 18-19.
USD bearish: (1) US 10-yr inflation breakevens reach 3%, triggering a…
Added by Francesc Riverola on October 2, 2012 at 2:34pm — No Comments