Bank of America Merrill Lynch - Quarterly forecasts
Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13
EUR-USD 1.31 1.23 1.22 1.21 1.20 1.20
USD-JPY 79 78 80 82 84 85
EUR-JPY 103 96 98 99 101 102
USD-CAD 0.97 1.02 1.02 1.01 1.01 1.01
AUD-USD 1.03 1.01 0.98 0.98 0.96 0.94
NZD-USD 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.79 0.78 0.78
EUR-GBP 0.81 0.78 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.78
GBP-USD 1.62 1.58 1.53…
Added by Francesc Riverola on October 8, 2012 at 2:01pm — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "EUR/USD: Friday’s doji reversal should weigh heavy on price action
SUP: 1.2959 1.2823 1.2747 1.2701
RES: 1.3172 1.3284
Strategy: Short here, stop through Friday’s high at 1.3090 and target 1.2823 overall
GBP/USD: Keep wider stops and fade any further rallies
SUP: 1.6071 1.5951
RES: 1.6261 1.6302/09
Strategy: Medium term shorts to 1.56 on a stop above 1.63 at 1.6330, short term positions with a stop above 1.6146 targeting…
Added by Francesc Riverola on October 8, 2012 at 1:30pm — No Comments
Danske Bank - "EUR/USD - Builds for a challenge on 1.3486/91 and 1.3833
Strategy Summary - Stay long or buy on dips for further gains to 1.3491 & possibly 1.3833. Place a stop under either 1.2740 or 1.2607.
EUR/PLN - A fresh medium term down leg is favoured to start unfolding
Strategy Summary - Look to sell for a medium term bear extension through 4.0255, towards the 3.8840/3.8220 region. Place a stop above…
Added by Francesc Riverola on October 8, 2012 at 1:26pm — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BULLISH A break above 1.3072 would signal scope for the recent strength to carry on targeting 1.3172. Support lies at 1.2878.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL A break above 1.6217 would open the doors for fresh extension of gains to 1.6273 and then 1.6309. Support lies at 1.6067/11."
Added by Francesc Riverola on October 8, 2012 at 1:16pm — No Comments
The EURUSD had a bullish momentum last week, topped at 1.3070, but closed lower at 1.3030, the bias is bullish in short term testing the area 1.3085/1.3175 as long as 1.2990 holds,a clear break above 1.3175 would confirm resumption from 1.2042 and target 1.3500 levels , but in return a clear break below 1.2990 - daily / 4 hour close - could lead price back to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.2900/1.2810 zone, but any move below 1.2990 is supposed to be contained by…Continue
During last week, gold and silver prices remained nearly unchanged. The Aussie dollar declined against the USD mainly due to RBA's decision to lower the cash rate by 25pp. This development may have contributed to the unclear trend of precious metals. There were several reports that were…Continue
Added by Lior Cohen on October 7, 2012 at 6:34pm — No Comments
Precious metals shifted with an unclear trend throughout the week with an unclear trend despite the appreciation of the Euro and several "risk currencies" during last week. On the other hand the Aussie dollar declined against the UDS mainly due to RBA's…Continue
Added by Lior Cohen on October 6, 2012 at 7:24am — No Comments
Finally, the pair managed to break above the key resistance 1.2965 yesterday, and broke out of consolidation, showing positive momentum in short term, eyes on 1.3115/1.3265 today!!
According to daily RSI, we have strong bullish momentum; price action is testing 1.3115/1.3265 levels, but be careful around 1.3115 we might see some pause (fluctuation), any fall below 1.3000 would be supported well by…Continue
The EURUSD traded with small range yesterday, almost 70 pips, looks like the pair's looking for an explosion , today we have important events; the ECB rate decision from EURO zone, most likely ECB will leave it unchanged but any decrease in rate would challenge 1.2800 level, which is protected strongly by the daily %R indicator, from United States we have Jobless claims , the previous is 359K, the forecast is : 369K , If It goes this way as expected , EURUSD would break upward…Continue
Added by Haitham653 on October 4, 2012 at 5:26am — No Comments
HSBC - "US: QE = USD negative: Resultant “risk on” mood takes us to higher yielding more risky currencies. “Risk off” and the USD’s safe haven status kicks in.
Eurozone: QE = EUR positive: Non-conventional easing as lowering the probability of EUR default and disintegration, thereby boosting the EUR.
Japan: QE = mild JPY positive: JGB purchases have little JPY effect, but equity market boost encourages foreign capital inflows.…
Added by Francesc Riverola on October 3, 2012 at 8:12am — No Comments
The EURUSD continued increasing yesterday almost 90 pips, but the pair was rejected strongly from the key resistance mentioned yesterday at 1.2955 and closed below this level showing some weakness in short term...
At the moment of writing EURUSD is trading at the middle range of R1 at 1.2965 and S1 at 1.2825
Stability above 1.2900 might test 1.2965, and stability below 1.2900 would keep pressure toward 1.2825…Continue
The US dollar declined against the major European currencies for the second consecutive trading day. High risk-to-reward long trade setups on the EUR/USD and GBP/USD currency pairs materialized during the third hour of the New York morning session.
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Added by Curt Wehrley on October 2, 2012 at 10:04pm — No Comments
JP Morgan - "Risk scenarios to accompany Q4 2012 FX forecasts
Risk bias: Balanced in Q4
Potential trigger events: FOMC meetings on Oct 24 and Dec 12; China data each month; China Communist Party Congress this fall (no date set yet); Greek negotiations with troika; ECB meetings on Oct 4, Nov 8 and Dec 6; EU leaders’ summit October 18-19.
USD bearish: (1) US 10-yr inflation breakevens reach 3%, triggering a…
Added by Francesc Riverola on October 2, 2012 at 2:34pm — No Comments
At the moment of writing, EURUSD is trading below R1 at 1.2955 and above S1 at 1.2830 ,intraday bias remains neural as long as 1.2955 holds , break above this level would confirm resumption from 1.2042 and target R2 at 1.3080 and R3 at 1.3205 !!
But in return, a break below 1.2835 would extend the consolidation toward S2 at 1.2710, losing this level would mean that the bullish momentum in short term is gone…Continue
UBS - "EURUSD BULLISH A break above 1.2988 would signal fresh extension of gains to 1.3031 and then, 1.3085. Support lies at 1.2804 ahead of 1.2758.
USDJPY BEARISH Only a closing break above 78.12 would signal scope for extension of the recovery to 78.54 and then, 79.22. Support lies at 77.44 ahead of 77.13."
Added by Francesc Riverola on October 2, 2012 at 12:03pm — No Comments
NBF Currency Outlook*
Current 1-Oct-12; 2012Q4; 2013Q1; 2013Q2; 2013Q3; 2013Q4
USD/CAD 0.98 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.98
US cents per CAD 1.02 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.02
EUR/USD 1.29 1.23 1.27 1.30 1.32 1.30
USD/JPY 78 77 79 80 81 81
AUD/USD 1.04 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.06 1.04
GBP/USD 1.62 1.58 1.63 1.65 1.67 1.65
USD/CNY 6.28 6.31 6.29 6.27 6.25 6.20
AUD/CAD 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.03 1.02
* forecasts for end of quarter
Source: NBF Economic…
Added by Francesc Riverola on October 2, 2012 at 9:09am — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "EUR/USD A bearish engulfing Friday should dictate today
SUP: 1.2823 1.2747 1.2701
RES: 1.2959 1.3172
Strategy: The bearish engulfing candle from Friday should dictate the theme today, wider stops require¡ above Friday’s highs at 1.2980 looking for moves to 1.2747 overall
GBP/USD Looks set to trouble the lower band at 1.5951
SUP: 1.6071 1.5951
RES: 1.6261 1.6302/09
Strategy: Expect the 1.6302 level…
Added by Francesc Riverola on October 2, 2012 at 9:00am — No Comments
During last week, gold and silver slightly declined as the recent developments in Greece, Spain and Italy that included riots against austerity measures may have pulled down not only bullion rates but also the Euro. By the end of the week, the release of…Continue
Added by Lior Cohen on October 1, 2012 at 9:12am — No Comments
As shown on the daily chart posted below, the EURUSD is in consolidation mode- in medium term - after losing the key support 1.2940 which is served now as resistance!
A clear break with stability above 1.2940 would be a sign of very persistent bullish momentum, and then price action is testing 1.3075/1.3170 levels A.S.A.P!
But in return, a clear break below 1.2815 would delay the bullish move and extend the consolidation toward the key support 1.2685;…Continue
Precious metals zigzagged throughout the week with an unclear trend despite the deprecation of the Euro and other "risk currencies" during last week. There were several reports that were published during the previous week: the U.S GDP growth rate was revised down to 1.3%;…Continue
Added by Lior Cohen on September 29, 2012 at 4:32pm — No Comments