Precious metals shifted with an unclear trend throughout the week with an unclear trend despite the appreciation of the Euro and several "risk currencies" during last week. On the other hand the Aussie dollar declined against the UDS mainly due to RBA's…Continue
Added by Lior Cohen on October 6, 2012 at 7:24am — No Comments
Finally, the pair managed to break above the key resistance 1.2965 yesterday, and broke out of consolidation, showing positive momentum in short term, eyes on 1.3115/1.3265 today!!
According to daily RSI, we have strong bullish momentum; price action is testing 1.3115/1.3265 levels, but be careful around 1.3115 we might see some pause (fluctuation), any fall below 1.3000 would be supported well by…Continue
The EURUSD traded with small range yesterday, almost 70 pips, looks like the pair's looking for an explosion , today we have important events; the ECB rate decision from EURO zone, most likely ECB will leave it unchanged but any decrease in rate would challenge 1.2800 level, which is protected strongly by the daily %R indicator, from United States we have Jobless claims , the previous is 359K, the forecast is : 369K , If It goes this way as expected , EURUSD would break upward…Continue
Added by Haitham653 on October 4, 2012 at 5:26am — No Comments
HSBC - "US: QE = USD negative: Resultant “risk on” mood takes us to higher yielding more risky currencies. “Risk off” and the USD’s safe haven status kicks in.
Eurozone: QE = EUR positive: Non-conventional easing as lowering the probability of EUR default and disintegration, thereby boosting the EUR.
Japan: QE = mild JPY positive: JGB purchases have little JPY effect, but equity market boost encourages foreign capital inflows.…
Added by Francesc Riverola on October 3, 2012 at 8:12am — No Comments
The EURUSD continued increasing yesterday almost 90 pips, but the pair was rejected strongly from the key resistance mentioned yesterday at 1.2955 and closed below this level showing some weakness in short term...
At the moment of writing EURUSD is trading at the middle range of R1 at 1.2965 and S1 at 1.2825
Stability above 1.2900 might test 1.2965, and stability below 1.2900 would keep pressure toward 1.2825…Continue
The US dollar declined against the major European currencies for the second consecutive trading day. High risk-to-reward long trade setups on the EUR/USD and GBP/USD currency pairs materialized during the third hour of the New York morning session.
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Added by Curt Wehrley on October 2, 2012 at 10:04pm — No Comments
JP Morgan - "Risk scenarios to accompany Q4 2012 FX forecasts
Risk bias: Balanced in Q4
Potential trigger events: FOMC meetings on Oct 24 and Dec 12; China data each month; China Communist Party Congress this fall (no date set yet); Greek negotiations with troika; ECB meetings on Oct 4, Nov 8 and Dec 6; EU leaders’ summit October 18-19.
USD bearish: (1) US 10-yr inflation breakevens reach 3%, triggering a…
Added by Francesc Riverola on October 2, 2012 at 2:34pm — No Comments
At the moment of writing, EURUSD is trading below R1 at 1.2955 and above S1 at 1.2830 ,intraday bias remains neural as long as 1.2955 holds , break above this level would confirm resumption from 1.2042 and target R2 at 1.3080 and R3 at 1.3205 !!
But in return, a break below 1.2835 would extend the consolidation toward S2 at 1.2710, losing this level would mean that the bullish momentum in short term is gone…Continue
UBS - "EURUSD BULLISH A break above 1.2988 would signal fresh extension of gains to 1.3031 and then, 1.3085. Support lies at 1.2804 ahead of 1.2758.
USDJPY BEARISH Only a closing break above 78.12 would signal scope for extension of the recovery to 78.54 and then, 79.22. Support lies at 77.44 ahead of 77.13."
Added by Francesc Riverola on October 2, 2012 at 12:03pm — No Comments
NBF Currency Outlook*
Current 1-Oct-12; 2012Q4; 2013Q1; 2013Q2; 2013Q3; 2013Q4
USD/CAD 0.98 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.98
US cents per CAD 1.02 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.02
EUR/USD 1.29 1.23 1.27 1.30 1.32 1.30
USD/JPY 78 77 79 80 81 81
AUD/USD 1.04 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.06 1.04
GBP/USD 1.62 1.58 1.63 1.65 1.67 1.65
USD/CNY 6.28 6.31 6.29 6.27 6.25 6.20
AUD/CAD 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.03 1.02
* forecasts for end of quarter
Source: NBF Economic…
Added by Francesc Riverola on October 2, 2012 at 9:09am — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "EUR/USD A bearish engulfing Friday should dictate today
SUP: 1.2823 1.2747 1.2701
RES: 1.2959 1.3172
Strategy: The bearish engulfing candle from Friday should dictate the theme today, wider stops require¡ above Friday’s highs at 1.2980 looking for moves to 1.2747 overall
GBP/USD Looks set to trouble the lower band at 1.5951
SUP: 1.6071 1.5951
RES: 1.6261 1.6302/09
Strategy: Expect the 1.6302 level…
Added by Francesc Riverola on October 2, 2012 at 9:00am — No Comments
During last week, gold and silver slightly declined as the recent developments in Greece, Spain and Italy that included riots against austerity measures may have pulled down not only bullion rates but also the Euro. By the end of the week, the release of…Continue
Added by Lior Cohen on October 1, 2012 at 9:12am — No Comments
As shown on the daily chart posted below, the EURUSD is in consolidation mode- in medium term - after losing the key support 1.2940 which is served now as resistance!
A clear break with stability above 1.2940 would be a sign of very persistent bullish momentum, and then price action is testing 1.3075/1.3170 levels A.S.A.P!
But in return, a clear break below 1.2815 would delay the bullish move and extend the consolidation toward the key support 1.2685;…Continue
Precious metals zigzagged throughout the week with an unclear trend despite the deprecation of the Euro and other "risk currencies" during last week. There were several reports that were published during the previous week: the U.S GDP growth rate was revised down to 1.3%;…Continue
Added by Lior Cohen on September 29, 2012 at 4:32pm — No Comments
As shown on the 60 min chart below , bearish breakout has been already confirmed at 1.2890, an hourly closing below this level followed by RSI break below 40 level , would add strong bearish momentum in short term testing 1.2850/1.2800 levels,1.2890 would serve as resistance , If RSI holds above 40, the EURUSD will be in consolidation mode in short term !!
But in return, a failure to close below 1.2890 might give us a positive reversal signal testing 1.2940 once again, a clear break…Continue
Added by Haitham653 on September 28, 2012 at 2:32pm — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD NEUTRAL A break above 1.3001 would signal scope for a move to 1.3041 and even, 1.3172. The important support lies at 1.2758.
GBPUSD BULLISH The risk is for further upside in the near-term. Resistance is at 1.6309 ahead of 1.6455. Support lies at 1.6160 ahead of 1.6124."
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 28, 2012 at 1:31pm — No Comments
Following the decline of precious metals during most of the week, they have changed direction as both gold and silver pulled up on Thursday along with the rest of the market including oil prices, the Euro and major stock markets. This rally came despite the lower than anticipated growth in GDP for…Continue
Added by Lior Cohen on September 28, 2012 at 9:03am — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "EUR/USD
EURUSD suddenly looks like it has based at 1.2823
SUP: 1.2823 1.2747 1.2701 RES: 1.3172
Strategy: If possible tuck stops sub 1.2823 at 1.2810 looking for moves higher after the bullish engulfing candle looking for moves back towards 1.3100
1.6302: Thou shall not pass!
SUP: 1.6117 1.6000/51 RES: 1.6261 1.6302/09
Strategy: Expect the 1.6302 level to be strong…
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 28, 2012 at 8:00am — No Comments
Europe's single currency rallied and the US dollar fell against multiple major currencies following the presentation of Spain's 2013 budget.Continue
Added by Curt Wehrley on September 28, 2012 at 3:27am — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD NEUTRAL The risk is for further correction to 1.2758 - a break below would open the way to 1.2608. Resistance is at 1.3003 ahead of 1.3043.
USDCHF NEUTRAL The important resistance is at 0.9467. As long as this holds, the risk remains for resumption of weakness. Support lies at 0.9304 ahead of 0.9239."
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 27, 2012 at 1:17pm — No Comments