Recommendations: LONG positions above 1.3060 with 1.3130 & 1.3160 as next targets.
Alternative scenario: The downside breakout of 1.3060 will call for a slide to 1.3010/1.2950.
Description: The pair trades above its resistance at 1.3060, above this level look for further upside gains towards 1.3120/1.3165 levels, an hourly close below 1.3060 will reverse risks to the downside and open the way…
Recommendations: SHORT positions below 1.3083 with 1.2910 & 1.2830 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The upside breakout of 1.3083 will call for a rebound to 1.3190/280.
Description: The pair continued to maintain its bearish momentum last week below 1.3083 levels, now pressure will be on the key support 1.2972 levels, a break and hold below this level on a daily…
Added by Haitham653 on April 28, 2013 at 8:37am — No Comments
If support @1.3005 and @1.2980s relents look for these levels around 1.2910, 1.2850s and the base @ 1.2775. If the base is unstable, then bears could enjoy beef steaks.…Continue
As shown on the daily chart, the pair was rejected from the key resistance 1.3161 after fake breakout above this level, another rejection was seen from the key resistance 1.3070, however, stability below 1.3070 levels could mean a return to the 1.2745 levels, below this level is likely to have large bearish move, but a break below the key support 1.2625 is needed to open the way towards the psychological level 1.2000..
On the upside, to neutralize the bearish attack and weaken the key…Continue
UBS - "EURUSD Resistance is at 1.3108, a break above this would open the more critical 1.3202 and then 1.3232. Support is at 1.2955 and 1.2920 – a breach here would be a bearish development.
USDJPY As long as support at 97.85 holds, there’s scope for extension of the broader bull trend. Resistance is at the psychological 100.00, a break above this would be positive, opening 101.45.
GBPUSD Having closed above 1.5424, the risk is for further upside in the near-term as the trending…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 26, 2013 at 8:23am — No Comments
Recommendations : SHORT positions below 1.3072 with 1.3000 & 1.2930 as next targets.
Alternative scenario : The upside breakout of 1.3072 will call for a rebound to 1.3115/165.
Description : The pair maintained a bearish momentum yesterday,stability below 1.3072 levels will keep the pair under pressure , a break below 1.3000 will accelerate the bearish move towards 1.2950/1.2900 levels, on the upside , an hourly close above…Continue
UBS - "EURCHF BULLISH There is scope for more upside and the next major resistance is at 1.2398. Support is at 1.2264.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Support is at 0.8497, a break below which would expose 0.8463 ahead of 0.8410. Resistance is at 0.8590 ahead of 0.8648.
EURJPY BULLISH As long as support at 127.82 holds, there is potential for the cross to extend its broader strength. Near-term resistance is at 130.70, a break above this would open 132.05.
EURUSD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.3108, a…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 25, 2013 at 10:46am — No Comments
Added by Curt Wehrley on April 24, 2013 at 5:59pm — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland -
"• Comparing the Q1 2013 with Q4 2012, overall bid-ask spreads increased in developed spot markets while they decreased in emerging spot markets.
• The level of trading activity in the first quarter of 2013 was much higher compared to last quarter of 2012.
• Looking at trade counts on dealer platforms and deal size estimates to calculate approximate USD market shares of the various currency pairs, AUDUSD share dropped by 2% from 2012 Q4 to 2013 Q1 while…
UBS - "EURUSD NEUTRAL Having tested support at 1.2974, there’s scope for a move to next support at 1.2920, a break below which would be a bearish development, triggering deeper sell-off to 1.2746. Resistance is at 1.3084 ahead of 1.3202.
USDJPY BULLISH Resistance is at the psychological 100.00, a break above this would be positive opening 101.45. Support is at 98.49 ahead of 97.85.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Support is at 1.5190, a breach of which would trigger deeper sell-off to 1.5122 and then…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 24, 2013 at 7:54am — No Comments
Recommendations : SHORT positions below 1.3083 with 1.2910 & 1.2830 as next targets.
Alternative scenario : The upside breakout of 1.3083 will call for a rebound to 1.3190/280.
Description : The pair maintained a bearish momentum yesterday, now pressure will be on the key support 1.2972 levels, a break below this level on a daily closing basis will look for the 1.2910 levels , where a breach will turn focus on the 1.2830…Continue
This is my scenario:
Added by Andrius on April 23, 2013 at 5:23pm — No Comments
UBS - "Germany's IFO data is also released this week. This is a survey that is likely to carry weight with policymakers. As Chart shows the data here has also begun to weaken. As a result the case for another ECB rate cut seems to be building. If the central bank does decide to ease in the next couple of months, it will likely cut its benchmark refinance lending rate from 0.75% to 0.50%. That would help push the euro down into a 1.28-1.30 range against the dollar. But for now we do not…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 23, 2013 at 8:33am — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "Trying to articulate dollar bullishness through EUR/USD is very hard yards. Relative changes in Fed and the ECB balance sheets is one of the explanatory variables in our short-term fair value model for EUR/USD. As long as the Fed is printing and the ECB is not, the EUR is supported. A Spanish sovereign risk measure is another explanatory variable of 'fair' in our EUR/USD calculation. Periphery yields are falling and spread over core compressing as southern Europe…Continue
Recommendations: LONG positions above 1.3024 with 1.3080 & 1.3120 as next targets.
Alternative scenario: The downside breakout of 1.3024 will call for a slide to 1.2970/30.
Description: The pair trades above its support at 1.3024, above this level look for further upside gains towards 1.3080 & 1.3120 levels, an hourly close below 1.3024 will delay the bullish move and open the way towards…
This is my 2 scenarios:
Sell 1.5295 / TP 1.5243 / SL 1.5325
Royal Bank of Scotland - "Stay dollar bullish. Initially on less US cyclical pessimism ("trundle rate" US growth is way better than UK and Euro) but largely on a conviction that the world is ultimately still in a highly risky place.
Trying to articulate dollar bullishness through EUR/USD still isn't the lead trade.
(...) But for now, ahead of leading with EUR/USD, we prefer to keep selling GBP/USD.
For Chancellor George Osbourne: The furore over the Reinhart and Rogoff comes…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 22, 2013 at 4:52pm — No Comments
Deutsche Bank - "Though sentiment may appear to be positive towards the US and the dollar, actual flows, positioning and views imply the opposite. Our dbSelect positioning indicator shows investors are short dollars. These short positions are larger than those seen in the euro, where investors are close to their smallest shorts in a year. Consensus analyst forecasts show a close-to-unchanged dollar profile against the majors this year and beyond.
Perhaps more importantly, when we look at…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 22, 2013 at 11:20am — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD NEUTRAL Support is at 1.2974 ahead of 1.2920. There’s an important resistance at 1.3228.
USDCHF BEARISH As long as resistance at 0.9345 holds, there is scope for resumption of downside. Support is at 0.9259 ahead of 0.9207.
AUDUSD BEARISH There’s scope for more downside with the trending indicators pointing south. Support is at 1.0202 ahead of 1.0115. Resistance is at 1.0359 ahead of 1.0398.
USDCAD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.0294, a break above this would open…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 22, 2013 at 10:51am — No Comments
Recommendations: SHORT positions below 1.3147 with 1.3020 & 1.2930 as next targets.
Alternative scenario: The upside breakout of 1.3147 will call for a rebound to 1.3190/280.
Description: A short term top has been placed at 1.3200 levels, next resistance is at 1.3147 levels, so as long as 1.3147 holds on a 4 hour closing basis, look for further downside losses towards 1.3020 ahead of 1.2930…