Stock market is in bearish mode while the US bonds are rallying but USD is not following the pattern. In fact, we have seen a nice reversal up on EURUSD, clearly in five waves while the USD index reverses down from 80.74. We see bearish USD across the board and based and current developments it looks like currency will lose even more value in this week.
On EURUSD, as said, we have five waves from the lows, which means that trend has changed and even if just temporary we need three…
Added by Gregor Horvat on April 8, 2014 at 8:54am — No Comments
TD Securities - "EURUSD rebounded in the early part of the past week, much as we expected it might after the consolidation late the week before. But despite a very powerful rally Monday (outside range day), the gains did not have any staying power and the EUR traded softly over the balance of the week, falling to test the 40-day MA. The market may be able to consolidate a little longer (and gain a little more) above 1.3775 early next week but the short-term bias towards more corrective…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 31, 2014 at 9:02am — No Comments
EURUSD found a support yesterday and turned up above 1.3870 that can be a bullish signal, but for confirmation it's too soon as rally from 1.3745 is not in five waves. For now it's in three legs so it can either be start of an impulsive structure or wave (x) of a complex correction. In either case we have to wait more time as pair is still sideways on "no man's land". We however prefer the bullish scenario because of the larger trend that is still up, but based on current wave structure…Continue
Added by Gregor Horvat on March 25, 2014 at 8:50am — No Comments
EURUSD moved down as expected, into a third leg of decline from 1.3966 that can be a zigzag, thus a corrective price action within impulsive uptrend. Pair is now at 50% Fibonacci retracement level where pair should find a base for a bullish case. Keep in mind that larger trend is up so ideally market will cover losses from yesterday. An impulsive bounce back above 1.3900 would be a bullish confirmation for that pair. In that case we will be looking for a move back 1.400.
Added by Gregor Horvat on March 20, 2014 at 9:57am — No Comments
EURUSD reversed sharply from the highs on Thursday, clearly in impulsive fashion back to former wave (iv). As such, a five wave rally from 1.3640 to 1.3966 is complete which means that market is now in a minimum three wave retracement. Ideally we will see a zigzag back to 1.3800.
EURUSD 4h Elliott Wave Analysis…
Added by Gregor Horvat on March 17, 2014 at 8:31am — No Comments
TD Securities - "EURUSD hesitated only briefly early this week, respecting the “shooting star” top noted last week for a day or two, before pushing on to new cycle highs Thursday. The drop back in spot from the high 1.39 area Thursday—close to the top of the daily channel—alerts us to the risk of a deeper turn lower in the week ahead, however. We are a little uncomfortable with the EUR’s extended run higher but the technical underpinnings remain strong, with bullish trend momentum signals…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 16, 2014 at 3:49pm — No Comments
EURUSD reversed sharply from the highs yesterday and is now trading 100 pips below 1.3966 level. A decline was very strong back to the area of the former wave four so looks like we have a top in place, at least for a the short-term. We expect now a minimum three wave set-back to 1.3800 region, which can either be start of a bearish impulse, or just a correction.
EURUSD 4h Elliott Wave Analysis…
Added by Gregor Horvat on March 14, 2014 at 10:27am — No Comments
ANZ - "· Declining resistance (off 2008’s 1.6040 high), which capped EUR/USD at 1.3885-90 in December, is being breached (1.3820-25 this week).
· A weekly close above 1.3825 (confirmed above 1.3895) should trigger a range flip to 1.4150 if not a broader measured target of 1.4420.
· Despite breaking declining resistance, broad patterns since 2008 are considered corrective with strong resistance likely at 1.4420-50.
· A close below 1.3820 would reduce near term upside…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 7, 2014 at 10:54am — No Comments
Today is a big day for the markets; the US NFP report will be released later at 13:30GMT. The expectations are 151K. Number above it will send the USD higher and EUR would reverse from resistance while figure around 130K or even lower with be ca catalyst for EURUSD move above 1.3900.
Technically speaking we still don’t know if EURUSD is now at the top of wave D that is part of a triangle or if pair will continue straight up. However, short-term charting suggests a reversal down…
Added by Gregor Horvat on March 7, 2014 at 9:24am — No Comments
JP Morgan - "The setup for the broad USD picture weakened over the past week while presenting another important test for the short term view. In this regard, the failure against key initial resistance levels has shifted the focus back to critical support levels which should define whether a recovery phase or deeper retracement can develop. While the current oversold framework favors a recovery phase, the late-week decline raises some doubts. In turn, we highlight the key markers that should…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 3, 2014 at 8:51pm — No Comments
EURUSD broke higher on Friday as expected after we identified a three wave corrective set-back from 1.3773 to 1.3640, labeled as wave (x). Despite some strong bullish sentiment in the last few trading days we need to consider a bigger pattern where EURUSD is still trapped in range-bound market. In fact, even rally from 1.3474 is overlapping so it's considered as corrective move, probably wave D of a triangle from a daily chart. If that is the case then current double zigzag will stop around…Continue
Added by Gregor Horvat on March 3, 2014 at 9:59am — No Comments
#GBP/USD 233 MIN chart. 76.8% fib resistance from yearly highs...has to clear 1.6830 for bull run…
Added by Shaun Powell on March 2, 2014 at 5:06pm — No Comments
EURUSD reversed to the downside in this week from 1.3773 but only in three legs which now looks like a completed corrective move after recent 80pip bounce from 1.3640. As such, short-term bias is now to the upside, for another three wave rally towards 1.3800-1.3850 area.
EURUSD 4h Elliott Wave Analysis…
Added by Gregor Horvat on February 28, 2014 at 9:00am — No Comments
Westpac - "EUR/USD seemed to satisfy the consensus early in the new year, settling into a low intensity decay from 1.38 to sub-1.35 in Jan. However, price action in Feb has seen those losses completely unwound. There are four key near term (inter-related) themes for EUR/USD: 1) the complexion of the US data; 2) the complexion of the Eurozone data; 3) the prospects for ECB easing; and 4) developments in the periphery. We assess that on balance the positives outweigh the negatives. We quantify…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 19, 2014 at 4:57pm — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "Trading Summary: Stay with stronger EUR/USD as the ECB dithers on easier policy and US data fizzles. With event risk from the BoE Inflation Report now passed, GBP strength can continue. We reaffirm our 1.69 end-Q1 target for GBP/USD, but see increased overshooting risks for the coming month. NOK price action remains constructive, with a move back in line with its traditional drivers ongoing. Further outperformance is likely on a confirmed break of 8.31 in EUR/NOK…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 17, 2014 at 10:52am — No Comments
On EURUSD we still have unlcear situation reagrding the future moves as pair is trading in the middle of 2014 highs and lows. We are trackign two count but adjusted the bearish one. On the right we are looking now at epxanded flat correction once again with wave C pending top around 1.3740. It will be interesting to see how market will respond in that zone; desicive break or sharp reversal!? I decline would be impulsive, then bearish will be confirmed, otherwise we will have…
Added by Gregor Horvat on February 14, 2014 at 9:00am — No Comments
EURUSD has turned up yesterday but slowed down at 50-61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, at "do or die" zone as highlighted on the chart. In fact, rally from the lows is still only in three legs so move can be corrective, ideally it's wave 2 part of a big impulsive bearish price action. However, we need to see an impulsive reaction from current resistance level, back to 1.3500 to confirm a bearish case. We would turn bullish on the pair only if pair will rise above 1.3740 critical…Continue
Added by Gregor Horvat on February 7, 2014 at 9:50am — No Comments
Recommendations: LONG positions above 1.3554 with 1.3630 & 1.3660 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The downside breakout of 1.3554 will call for a slide to 1.3510/1.3480.
Description: Intraday outlook in EURUSD is on the upside with risk towards 1.3630 ahead of 1.3660 as long as support 1.3554 holds on hourly basis ,losing 1.3554 levels on hourly basis would weaken the current bullish run and reverse risks to the…Continue
EURUSD is trapped in 60 pip range which we think it’s a corrective price action, but still not clear if completed or now. We are observing two slightly different scenarios, but both bearish within a larger trend. The first count shows idea of a triangle placed in wave (iv) from where, if correct, we should see immediate break through the lower side of the pattern that will confirm wave (v) move down to 1.3440.
EURUSD count #1…
Added by Gregor Horvat on February 5, 2014 at 10:40am — No Comments