Royal Bank of Scotland - "What drives EUR higher is potentially some combination of: a late flood of money into Southern Europe; tightening liquidity in Euro zone money markets unless/until ECB actually eases; a robust Euro zone current account surplus; and the possibility of more reserve manager diversification demand for EUR.
(...) A global FX pain trade for the next few weeks is still EUR/USD higher to/through 1.40. (...) Any EUR/USD upside over coming weeks is likely to be limited…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 1, 2014 at 10:08am — No Comments
EURUSD has turned slightly lower in this week from around 1.3880 which makes decline from 1.3900 more complex than on the first place but still corrective. We are looking at a three wave pullback now to to 1.3760 area where pair could be looking for a base and new turn to the upside. Keep in mind that larger trend is bullish since pair reversal up from 1.3671 at the start of April so we think that sooner or later that direction will resume.
EURUSD 4h Elliott Wave…
Added by Gregor Horvat on April 30, 2014 at 7:05am — No Comments
EURUSD has turned bullish after a completed triangle pattern in wave B). Ideally price is now in wave C) that may reach levels even around 1.4200 if we consider that wave C) may unfold in extended five sub-waves. With that said, there is room for even stronger EUR in the next couple of weeks while 1.3640/1.3700 support zone is not breached. From a bigger perspective, we think that EURUSD is moving in to the final stages of a complex corrective retracement in wave E, and that trend will turn…Continue
Added by Gregor Horvat on April 26, 2014 at 5:55am — No Comments
EURUSD has turned bullish at start of the month from 1.3670 where we called end of a double zigzag. From there market recovered clearly in impulsive fashion through the upper trendline of a corrective channel which is very important sign for a change in trend. In fact. even a decline from latest swing high is in three legs at the moment and approaching 61.8% Fibonacci level where we expect a new turn to the upside. Ideally market will revisit 1.3900 in this week, while 1.3671 low is now…Continue
Added by Gregor Horvat on April 25, 2014 at 6:31am — No Comments
Interestingly, the EURUSD is moving up with US bonds and not falling with the S&P. At the moment we do not see any shift of that EUR uptrend so we will continue to look higher. Pair however gaped lower, but most likely only pulling back within a corrective retracement. 1.3790/1.3800 looks like a nice technical support from where uptrend may resume.
EURUSD 1h Elliott Wave Analysis…
Added by Gregor Horvat on April 14, 2014 at 10:33am — No Comments
EURUSD moved even higher yesterday, up to 1.3870 which makes first impulse from the low more extended than firstly anticipated which just confirms the fact of a very strong bullish sentiment. However, nothing moves in straight line, pullbacks will always occur, and the first deeper one could already be unfolding. We may see wave (ii) retracement back to 1.3780 region before uptrend resumes. In either way trend is now clearly bullish as long as 1.3671 stays in place, while any downward…Continue
Added by Gregor Horvat on April 10, 2014 at 9:34am — No Comments
1 # EUR/USD sell @ 1.3782 / TP 1.3650
2 # GBP/USD sell @ 1.6647 / TP 1.6528
3 # USD/JPY buy @ 102.65 / TP 103.85
4 # EUR/JPY buy @ 140.98 / TP 142.15 (+6pip)
5 # USD/CHF buy @ 0.8845 / TP 0.8965
6 # AUD/USD sell @ 0.9327 / TP 0.9241
7 # USD/JPY buy @ 102.06 / TP 102.60
8 # GBP/USD sell @ 1.6728 / TP 1.6660
9 # GBP/USD sell @ 1.6776 / TP 1.6730 close earlier…
Stock market is in bearish mode while the US bonds are rallying but USD is not following the pattern. In fact, we have seen a nice reversal up on EURUSD, clearly in five waves while the USD index reverses down from 80.74. We see bearish USD across the board and based and current developments it looks like currency will lose even more value in this week.
On EURUSD, as said, we have five waves from the lows, which means that trend has changed and even if just temporary we need three…
Added by Gregor Horvat on April 8, 2014 at 8:54am — No Comments
TD Securities - "EURUSD rebounded in the early part of the past week, much as we expected it might after the consolidation late the week before. But despite a very powerful rally Monday (outside range day), the gains did not have any staying power and the EUR traded softly over the balance of the week, falling to test the 40-day MA. The market may be able to consolidate a little longer (and gain a little more) above 1.3775 early next week but the short-term bias towards more corrective…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 31, 2014 at 9:02am — No Comments
EURUSD found a support yesterday and turned up above 1.3870 that can be a bullish signal, but for confirmation it's too soon as rally from 1.3745 is not in five waves. For now it's in three legs so it can either be start of an impulsive structure or wave (x) of a complex correction. In either case we have to wait more time as pair is still sideways on "no man's land". We however prefer the bullish scenario because of the larger trend that is still up, but based on current wave structure…Continue
Added by Gregor Horvat on March 25, 2014 at 8:50am — No Comments
EURUSD moved down as expected, into a third leg of decline from 1.3966 that can be a zigzag, thus a corrective price action within impulsive uptrend. Pair is now at 50% Fibonacci retracement level where pair should find a base for a bullish case. Keep in mind that larger trend is up so ideally market will cover losses from yesterday. An impulsive bounce back above 1.3900 would be a bullish confirmation for that pair. In that case we will be looking for a move back 1.400.
Added by Gregor Horvat on March 20, 2014 at 9:57am — No Comments
EURUSD reversed sharply from the highs on Thursday, clearly in impulsive fashion back to former wave (iv). As such, a five wave rally from 1.3640 to 1.3966 is complete which means that market is now in a minimum three wave retracement. Ideally we will see a zigzag back to 1.3800.
EURUSD 4h Elliott Wave Analysis…
Added by Gregor Horvat on March 17, 2014 at 8:31am — No Comments
TD Securities - "EURUSD hesitated only briefly early this week, respecting the “shooting star” top noted last week for a day or two, before pushing on to new cycle highs Thursday. The drop back in spot from the high 1.39 area Thursday—close to the top of the daily channel—alerts us to the risk of a deeper turn lower in the week ahead, however. We are a little uncomfortable with the EUR’s extended run higher but the technical underpinnings remain strong, with bullish trend momentum signals…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 16, 2014 at 3:49pm — No Comments
EURUSD reversed sharply from the highs yesterday and is now trading 100 pips below 1.3966 level. A decline was very strong back to the area of the former wave four so looks like we have a top in place, at least for a the short-term. We expect now a minimum three wave set-back to 1.3800 region, which can either be start of a bearish impulse, or just a correction.
EURUSD 4h Elliott Wave Analysis…
Added by Gregor Horvat on March 14, 2014 at 10:27am — No Comments
ANZ - "· Declining resistance (off 2008’s 1.6040 high), which capped EUR/USD at 1.3885-90 in December, is being breached (1.3820-25 this week).
· A weekly close above 1.3825 (confirmed above 1.3895) should trigger a range flip to 1.4150 if not a broader measured target of 1.4420.
· Despite breaking declining resistance, broad patterns since 2008 are considered corrective with strong resistance likely at 1.4420-50.
· A close below 1.3820 would reduce near term upside…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 7, 2014 at 10:54am — No Comments
Today is a big day for the markets; the US NFP report will be released later at 13:30GMT. The expectations are 151K. Number above it will send the USD higher and EUR would reverse from resistance while figure around 130K or even lower with be ca catalyst for EURUSD move above 1.3900.
Technically speaking we still don’t know if EURUSD is now at the top of wave D that is part of a triangle or if pair will continue straight up. However, short-term charting suggests a reversal down…
Added by Gregor Horvat on March 7, 2014 at 9:24am — No Comments
JP Morgan - "The setup for the broad USD picture weakened over the past week while presenting another important test for the short term view. In this regard, the failure against key initial resistance levels has shifted the focus back to critical support levels which should define whether a recovery phase or deeper retracement can develop. While the current oversold framework favors a recovery phase, the late-week decline raises some doubts. In turn, we highlight the key markers that should…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 3, 2014 at 8:51pm — No Comments
EURUSD broke higher on Friday as expected after we identified a three wave corrective set-back from 1.3773 to 1.3640, labeled as wave (x). Despite some strong bullish sentiment in the last few trading days we need to consider a bigger pattern where EURUSD is still trapped in range-bound market. In fact, even rally from 1.3474 is overlapping so it's considered as corrective move, probably wave D of a triangle from a daily chart. If that is the case then current double zigzag will stop around…Continue
#GBP/USD 233 MIN chart. 76.8% fib resistance from yearly highs...has to clear 1.6830 for bull run…
Added by Shaun Powell on March 2, 2014 at 5:06pm — No Comments