The EURUSD maintained a bullish momentum last week after topping at 1.3305, now pressure will be on the key resistance 1.3305. The EURUSD will have to hold above the 1.3305 levels on a weekly closing basis to push the market for further upside gains,If seen ; expect the market to strengthen further towards the 1.3450 levels ahead of the 1.3650 levels, where a breach will turn focus on the 1.3860 levels.
On the downside, support is at 1.2955 ahead of the 1.2745 levels, a…Continue
Added by Haitham653 on June 8, 2013 at 8:20am — No Comments
Recommendations: Long positions above 1.3226 with 1.3290 & 1.3330 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The downside breakout of 1.3226 will call for a slide to 1.3190/130
Description: The pair broke above the main resistance 1.3242 yesterday , topped at 1.3305, now trades above the key support 1.3226, as long as this level holds on hourly closing basis, the pair is likely to move higher towards 1.3330 levels, losing…Continue
UBS - "Today the European Central Bank and the Bank of England hold their monthly policy meetings. Neither central bank is set to make any changes. But both may still consider further easing under a new governor from July in the BoE's case or if Eurozone sentiment worsens again over the summer in the ECB's case.
For now the euro remains sidelined, trading in a 1.28-1.32 range against the dollar. There are two factors currently supporting the single currency. First, Eurozone data has…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 6, 2013 at 11:00am — No Comments
Deutsche Bank - "another story in the making this year is euro outperformance despite dollar strength. We think this has more to go, with the majority of EUR-crosses trending higher on a multi-year basis. We see three drivers:
First, most of the valuation correction in EUR has taken place. (...) Second, Europe is exhibiting a number of Japan-style dynamics that are beneficial to the currency. (...) Third, the rest of the world just doesn't look that good.
(...) In sum, we…
Recommendations: Long positions above 1.3041 with 1.3140 & 1.3200 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The downside breakout of 1.3041 will call for a slide to 1.2970/40
Description: The pair trades above the main support 1.2940, but it trapped yesterday between 1.3040 and 1.3103 levels, to move higher, it needs to overcome 1.3103, If seen, it would target 1.3140 levels ahead of 1.3200 levels.On the downside , losing…Continue
The EUR has been correcting higher of late. This has mainly been the case due to rising expectations for a less dovish monetary policy stance by the ECB. Inflation in May surprised to the upside and several ECB members’ provided contradictive comments regarding the possibility of negative interest rates.
However, we believe that ECB President Draghi will keep no less of a dovish monetary policy stance. Growth prospects failed to improve considerably and monetary…
ANZ - "As noted last week, the talk of a Head and Shoulders pattern seems misplaced given that EUR/USD is well within a broad previous range. A break of the 1.2775 area could rekindle this talk, but it is likely to disappoint. The current push into the 1.3025-50 will further reduce the downside risks and favour range trading. The favoured profile is for another squeeze towards 1.32-1.33 as a 1.25-1.33 range is defined.
(...) AUDUSD Little change: The long held bias that a structural top…
UBS - "USDJPY BEARISH Any upside will be limited in time and extent, as the broader focus is for a break below support at 97.31, extending weakness to 95.79. Resistance is at 100.73 and 101.31.
EURUSD NEUTRAL The latest strength suggests there is potential for extension to test the resistance at 1.3194 and then 1.3243. Support is at 1.2934 ahead of 1.2797.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL The recent advance found resistance at 1.5378. A closing break above which would be positive, signalling scope for…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 4, 2013 at 8:51am — No Comments
Recommendations: Long positions above 1.3017 with 1.3115 & 1.3200 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The downside breakout of 1.3017 will call for a slide to 1.2970/40
Description: The pair broke above the daily resistance 1.3061 yesterday, more gains are suggested today, below 1.3017 may delay the bullish move and retest 1.2970/40, but in all as long as 1.2943 holds the pair will remain biased to the upside even in…Continue
Deutsche Bank - "In recent weeks dollar long positioning has become extended as the market anticipates Fed tapering on the back of stronger US economic data. As a result, US data, particularly labor market data, has taken on renewed importance and may add considerable volatility to currency markets for the remainder of 2013.
Overnight EUR volatility is indicatively pricing 2x the volatility around next Friday’s NFP print relative to a “normal day” (e.g. inferred from 1m volatility).…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 3, 2013 at 7:56pm — No Comments
JP Morgan - "The big picture is still favoring a H & S topping pattern which formed since September last year. But refraining from delivering the final confirmation via a neckline break at 1.2780/72 (daily.-weekly) the market kept the backdoor open to potentially perform another corrective leg up to 1.3315/23 (weekly.-daily trend channel) if not to 1.3483 (int. 76.4 %) in a C-wave up. For such a recovery to be supported though, it would take a decisive break above 1.3138 (minor 76.4 %)…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 3, 2013 at 7:20pm — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "Trading FX has been challenging in recent weeks, with a big recovery in JPY and sharp falls in several emerging currencies, and moderate strength in European currencies.
Looking ahead, the US economy will probably continue to display a solid growth outcome. It may not completely break the shackles of fiscal consolidation, but we expect that it will continue to be strong enough to see tapering begin over the next few months and ensure the USD on balance remains…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 3, 2013 at 6:26pm — No Comments
Recommendations: SHORT positions below 1.3045 with 1.2970 & 1.2940 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The upside breakout of 1.3045 will call for a rebound to 1.3080/1.3115
Description: The pair’s already found resistance at 1.3045, as long as this level holds, look for further downside losses towards 1.2970/40 levels, an hourly close above 1.3040 will reverse risks to the upside and call for a rebound to 1.3085/115…Continue
The EURUSD maintained a bullish momentum last week after topping at 1.3061, a daily close above 1.3061 is likely to advance the pair higher towards the 1.3135 levels ahead of the 1.3240 levels , above 1.3240 will target the 1.3320 levels.
On the downside, support is at 1.2943, a daily close below this level will weaken the current bullish run and open the way towards the main support 1.2820, a daily close below 1.2820 is likely to expose 1.2745 and target 1.2661.
The EURUSD continued to consolidate with bullish bias on the weekly chart after bottoming at the 1.2745 levels, with the key support 1.2745 intact , the pair is likely to retest 1.3318 levels, where a breach will look for the 1.3433 levels.
On the downside, support is at 1.2745 levels, a weekly close below this level will expose 1.2661 and pave the way towards 1.2200 levels,however, the EURUSD is likely to consolidate between 1.2750/1.3300 levels the upcoming…Continue
Added by Haitham653 on June 3, 2013 at 6:49am — No Comments
The EURUSD continued to maintain its bearish momentum the past few months after topping at 1.3710 levels, last month it topped at 1.3242 , bottomed at 1.2795 and closed at 1.2997 levels.
Now pressure will be on the key support 1.2795, the EURUSD will have to hold below the 1.2795 levels on a monthly closing basis to push the market for further downside losses,If seen, It will target the 1.2200/1.2000 levels.
On the upside, a failure to hold below 1.2795 could mean a return to…Continue
Added by Haitham653 on June 3, 2013 at 6:00am — No Comments
TD Securities - "We are not quite sure what to make of EUR/USD right here in the short run. The market recovered strongly mid-week (bullish outside range day Wednesday) but the signal followed something of a sideways range trade and was not ideally positioned to imply a strong rally. Indeed, EUR gains stalled a little above the 1.2975/1.3025 resistance range that we thought would likely cap gains. Effectively, the push higher looks to have negated the immediate threat of a drop to the low…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 1, 2013 at 11:01pm — No Comments
Societé Generale - "The data calendar gets busy again over the coming week, with NFPs the icing on the cake on Friday. Our economists are looking for a s lightly above-consensus number, at +210k. We’ve also got the BoE (waiting for Carney) and ECB (dovish but no cut) meetings on Thursday. Because the Fed is becoming very data-dependant, the focus will be on US employment. Three scenarios:
1.Strong US data would revive exit fears,…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 31, 2013 at 3:37pm — No Comments
Recommendations: Long positions above 1.2967 with 1.3030 & 1.3060 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The downside breakout of 1.2967 will call for a slide to 1.2920/1.2860.
Description: The pair's already found support at 1.2967, as long as this level holds, look for further gains towards 1.3030/1.3060 levels, an hourly close below 1.2967 will reverse risks to the downside and call for a slide to 1.2920/1.2860…
The EURUSD maintained a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.3061 levels, now pressure will be on the key resistance 1.3061.The EURUSD will have to hold above the 1.3061 levels on a daily closing basis to push the market for further upside gains,If seen : the pair will target the 1.3135 levels where a breach will turn focus on the 1.3225 levels, break of 1.3225 will pave the way towards the 1.3330 levels.
On the downside, support is at 1.2820, a failure to hold above the 1.3061…Continue