Bank of America Merrill Lynch - "we continue expecting the EURUSD at 1.25 by the end of this year. Indeed, the market is now moving in this direction and our projection does not seem as out of the consensus as it seemed earlier this year. We believe that a EUR weakening beyond our projection would require a new shock from the periphery, or the ECB moving aggressively into unconventional policy territory, both of which are unlikely in the short term in our view.
(...) We prefer to…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 21, 2013 at 10:24am — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "EUR has been supported by a rapidly improving current account surplus that is now at a Euro-era record. It has been supported by less ECB QE as banks have repaid some LTRO funds. It has been supported by a steady rebound in periphery assets (Spain and Italian 10 year spreads over bunds are around the lows since July 2011, and their outright yields are at lows since July 2010). However, it has been weakened by an ECB rate cut and a preparedness to discuss negative…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 21, 2013 at 10:11am — No Comments
Recommendations: SHORT positions below 1.2901 with 1.2795 & 1.2700 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The upside breakout of 1.2901 will call for a rebound to 1.2945/1.3030.
Description: The pair's already found resistance at 1.2901 level, as long as this level holds, look for further losses towards 1.2795/1.2700 levels, an hourly close above 1.2901 will call for a…
Recommendations: SHORT positions below 1.2890 with 1.2745 & 1.2625 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The upside breakout of 1.2890 will call for a rebound to 1.3030/195.
Description: The EURUSD continued to maintaine its bearish momentum last week, now pressure will be on the key support 1.2745, a break below that level will open the way towards 1.2625 levels.On the…
UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH The pair is under pressure, trading close to Wednesday's low at 1.2843. A break below this would expose 1.2746 ahead of 1.2662. Resistance is at 1.2943 ahead of 1.3029.
EURCHF BULLISH With bullish trend in place, focus is on resistance at 1.2525, a break above this would open 1.2569. Support is at 1.2361.
EURGBP BEARISH With the MACD below its zero line, focus is on support at 0.8389. A break below this would expose the important 0.8587. There is an important…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 17, 2013 at 8:08am — No Comments
Societé Generale - "Following a small correction in late April, the dollar is rallying with a vengeance. A pause may be due, but recent moves confirm the shape of things to come: dollar gains will be far bigger in H2, as the Fed exit debate heats up. The worst performers in May are mostly G10 currencies, both high beta and low beta.
The AUD sell-off looks overdone. For now the AUD/USD looks like a falling knife; we start with a more cautious long in AUD/NZD. The peripheral debt rally-a…
Westpac - "USD strength has been a key theme of late. The bulk of its gains however have been posted against a motley bunch of currencies. In the last month USD strength has been concentrated primarily against the likes of AUD, SEK, NZD and CHF. Over the last week JPY, NZD, AUD and CHF have ceded the most ground to the USD. EUR on the other hand, while lower over both the last week and month against the USD, has weathered the USD’s rally comparatively well.
(...) Our longer term…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 15, 2013 at 10:02am — No Comments
Recommendations : SHORT positions below 1.2956 with 1.2890 & 1.2850 as next targets.
Alternative scenario : The upside breakout of 1.2956 will call for a rebound to 1.3010/50.
Description : The pair maintained a bearish momentum yesterday,stability below 1.2956 levels will keep the pair under pressure with risk towards 1.2890/1.2850 levels, on the upside , an hourly close above 1.2956 will delay the bearish scenario and…Continue
TD Securities - "We have upgraded our outlook for the USD across a broad front. We are adjusting our views to reflect some market developments that have occurred a little more rapidly than we had expected (such as the push up in USD/JPY). But we are also recognising the emergence of some trends that we feel support our long-held view that the USD’s secular bear trend is very mature and is poised to show signs of a further recovery.
(...) We have upgraded out USD/JPY forecast to reflect…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 14, 2013 at 3:02pm — No Comments
Societé Generale - "The FX markets are now under the influence of a trilogy of themes: the American economic revival, diverging monetary policy expectations and the (unfinished) euro area (EA) crisis.
Those themes all point in the same direction: a stronger dollar. Dollar strength is now far less dependent on risk conditions; the US economic outperformance and the fears of a not-too-distant Fed exit imply that the dollar is no longer a funding currency of choice in the carry trade. The…
Looks like traders aren't quite ready to take EUR/USD lower, eh? After forcing the pair below the 1.3000 major psychological handle, the market took a U-turn and pushed price back inside the range. If you think it'll keep rising, aim for the previous high around 1.3200. On the other hand, if you feel that sellers are just taking a breather, you might want to…Continue
Added by Abdul Rehman on May 14, 2013 at 7:00am — No Comments
Westpac - "AUD/USD: Broad USD strength has been punishing AUD more than most, just as the opposite usually holds true. Stronger local data calls into question when the RBA will cut again, helping limit AUD/USD downside. But the cleanout could easily extend to 0.9850/70 near term before bouncing back above 1.00 on stretched short positioning.
NZD/USD: A possible peak in NZ economic momentum and record spec long NZD positions in the futures market dovetail with the stronger USD move to…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 13, 2013 at 2:54pm — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY BULLISH The pair extended its strength and is approaching first resistance at 103.07, a break above which would open the important 105.50. Support is at 100.54 ahead of 98.58.
GBPUSD BULLISH The latest setback does not change the broader bullish picture. Support is at 1.5310 ahead of 1.5219. Resistance is at 1.5458 ahead of 1.5606.
EURUSD NEUTRAL Friday's sell-off stalled exactly at the strong support at 1.2936. A closing break below would be a bearish development,…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 13, 2013 at 8:38am — No Comments
Recommendations: SHORT positions below 1.3194 with 1.2870 & 1.2780 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The upside breakout of 1.3194 will call for a rebound to 1.3280/315.
Description: The EURUSD maintained a bearish momentum last week after losing the key support 1.3109, with the key resistance 1.3194 intact, the risk for more losses is likely towards 1.2860 where a…
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "The euro continues to remain relatively stable in the near-term with EUR/USD lacking direction. We do not expect that dynamic to change in the week ahead with no clear fresh catalyst on the horizon. The euro appears well supported against the US dollar above the 1.30-level where its 200-day moving average is located. Even ECB President Draghi’s signal that the ECB is open to lowering its deposit rate into negative territory has had only a limited negative impact…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 10, 2013 at 8:29am — No Comments
UBS - "The overnight break above the psychological 100 level is likely to pave the way for further upside too. The break was accompanied by broad-based dollar strength which chimes with our more general stronger dollar view for 2013.
With events unfolding in favour of further yen weakness, we take this opportunity to raise our 1m and 3m USDJPY forecasts to 102 and 105 respectively (previously both stood at 95.00). Our end-2013 forecast remains at 110.
(...) The dollar has chalked up…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 10, 2013 at 7:08am — No Comments
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "Given the ECB rate cut, speculation on negative rates, and the strong US employment report, the stability of EUR/USD is impressive. It does suggest that factors like reserve re-cycling may well be playing some role in supporting the euro. But the stability of the periphery debt markets in conjunction with record current account surpluses also mean reduced euro sales in the market. It’s not necessarily due to increased foreign investor demand for periphery debt –…Continue
Societé Generale - "Markets are risk friendly. Benoit Anne sent out his latest EM investor survey results and they are, basically, happier than a month ago. It seems that the palliative effects of global easy money are washing away EM-specific concerns about that downgraded EM growth expectations and softer commodity prices. And so, USD/MXN attacks 12, USD/CAD tests parity, AUD refuses to break through 1.0150, XO spreads test 2011 lows, etc etc. There isn't enough news to drive these trends…Continue
As shown on the 4 hour chart posted below, the EURUSD has formed a breakout pattern, support at 1.3033, resistance at 1.3159,a four hour close above 1.3159 will advance the pair further higher towards 1.3285 and 1.3410 levels, while a four hour close below 1.3033 will open the way to 1.2910 and 1.2785 levels.
Recommendation 1 # : Buying the pair with a 4 hour closing above 1.3159 targeting 1.3285 and 1.3410 levels, stop loss below 1.3033 levels.
Recommendation 2 #…Continue