ANZ - "· Declining resistance (off 2008’s 1.6040 high), which capped EUR/USD at 1.3885-90 in December, is being breached (1.3820-25 this week).
· A weekly close above 1.3825 (confirmed above 1.3895) should trigger a range flip to 1.4150 if not a broader measured target of 1.4420.
· Despite breaking declining resistance, broad patterns since 2008 are considered corrective with strong resistance likely at 1.4420-50.
· A close below 1.3820 would reduce near term upside…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 7, 2014 at 10:54am — No Comments
Today is a big day for the markets; the US NFP report will be released later at 13:30GMT. The expectations are 151K. Number above it will send the USD higher and EUR would reverse from resistance while figure around 130K or even lower with be ca catalyst for EURUSD move above 1.3900.
Technically speaking we still don’t know if EURUSD is now at the top of wave D that is part of a triangle or if pair will continue straight up. However, short-term charting suggests a reversal down…
Added by Gregor Horvat on March 7, 2014 at 9:24am — No Comments
JP Morgan - "The setup for the broad USD picture weakened over the past week while presenting another important test for the short term view. In this regard, the failure against key initial resistance levels has shifted the focus back to critical support levels which should define whether a recovery phase or deeper retracement can develop. While the current oversold framework favors a recovery phase, the late-week decline raises some doubts. In turn, we highlight the key markers that should…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 3, 2014 at 8:51pm — No Comments
This the state of EU on the monthly chart. I am not an expert analyst but just a home based trader. What do I "see"? Well, save your brick and bats, you use them after I explain it in my own "lingo".
We have two coloured lines marking the high and "low" which forms a range from Dec 2005 low…Continue
EURUSD broke higher on Friday as expected after we identified a three wave corrective set-back from 1.3773 to 1.3640, labeled as wave (x). Despite some strong bullish sentiment in the last few trading days we need to consider a bigger pattern where EURUSD is still trapped in range-bound market. In fact, even rally from 1.3474 is overlapping so it's considered as corrective move, probably wave D of a triangle from a daily chart. If that is the case then current double zigzag will stop around…Continue
#GBP/USD 233 MIN chart. 76.8% fib resistance from yearly highs...has to clear 1.6830 for bull run…
Added by Shaun Powell on March 2, 2014 at 5:06pm — No Comments
EURUSD reversed to the downside in this week from 1.3773 but only in three legs which now looks like a completed corrective move after recent 80pip bounce from 1.3640. As such, short-term bias is now to the upside, for another three wave rally towards 1.3800-1.3850 area.
EURUSD 4h Elliott Wave Analysis…
Added by Gregor Horvat on February 28, 2014 at 9:00am — No Comments
Westpac - "EUR/USD seemed to satisfy the consensus early in the new year, settling into a low intensity decay from 1.38 to sub-1.35 in Jan. However, price action in Feb has seen those losses completely unwound. There are four key near term (inter-related) themes for EUR/USD: 1) the complexion of the US data; 2) the complexion of the Eurozone data; 3) the prospects for ECB easing; and 4) developments in the periphery. We assess that on balance the positives outweigh the negatives. We quantify…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 19, 2014 at 4:57pm — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "Trading Summary: Stay with stronger EUR/USD as the ECB dithers on easier policy and US data fizzles. With event risk from the BoE Inflation Report now passed, GBP strength can continue. We reaffirm our 1.69 end-Q1 target for GBP/USD, but see increased overshooting risks for the coming month. NOK price action remains constructive, with a move back in line with its traditional drivers ongoing. Further outperformance is likely on a confirmed break of 8.31 in EUR/NOK…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 17, 2014 at 10:52am — No Comments
On EURUSD we still have unlcear situation reagrding the future moves as pair is trading in the middle of 2014 highs and lows. We are trackign two count but adjusted the bearish one. On the right we are looking now at epxanded flat correction once again with wave C pending top around 1.3740. It will be interesting to see how market will respond in that zone; desicive break or sharp reversal!? I decline would be impulsive, then bearish will be confirmed, otherwise we will have…
Added by Gregor Horvat on February 14, 2014 at 9:00am — No Comments
EURUSD has turned up yesterday but slowed down at 50-61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, at "do or die" zone as highlighted on the chart. In fact, rally from the lows is still only in three legs so move can be corrective, ideally it's wave 2 part of a big impulsive bearish price action. However, we need to see an impulsive reaction from current resistance level, back to 1.3500 to confirm a bearish case. We would turn bullish on the pair only if pair will rise above 1.3740 critical…Continue
Added by Gregor Horvat on February 7, 2014 at 9:50am — No Comments
Recommendations: LONG positions above 1.3554 with 1.3630 & 1.3660 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The downside breakout of 1.3554 will call for a slide to 1.3510/1.3480.
Description: Intraday outlook in EURUSD is on the upside with risk towards 1.3630 ahead of 1.3660 as long as support 1.3554 holds on hourly basis ,losing 1.3554 levels on hourly basis would weaken the current bullish run and reverse risks to the…Continue
EURUSD is trapped in 60 pip range which we think it’s a corrective price action, but still not clear if completed or now. We are observing two slightly different scenarios, but both bearish within a larger trend. The first count shows idea of a triangle placed in wave (iv) from where, if correct, we should see immediate break through the lower side of the pattern that will confirm wave (v) move down to 1.3440.
EURUSD count #1…
Added by Gregor Horvat on February 5, 2014 at 10:40am — No Comments
Recommendations: SHORT positions below 1.3572 with 1.3480 & 1.3455 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The upside breakout of 1.3572 will open 1.3600/1.3630 levels.
Description: Intraday outlook in EURUSD is on the downside as long as 1.3572 holds on hourly basis , support around 1.3500 , below this level will open 1.3475 ahead of 1.3455 levels , further out will aim the 1.3400 levels.On the upside , resistance at 1.3535…Continue
Recommendations: SHORT positions below 1.3572 with 1.3510 & 1.3475 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The upside breakout of 1.3572 will open 1.3600/1.3630 levels.
Description: Intraday outlook in EURUSD is on the downside as long as 1.3572 holds on hourly basis , support around 1.3510 , below this level will open 1.3480 ahead of 1.3455 levels , further out will aim the 1.3400 levels.On the upside , break of 1.3572 on…Continue
Recommendations: SHORT positions below 1.3572 with 1.3400 & 1.3325 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The upside breakout of 1.3572 will open 1.3650/1.3740 levels.
Description: The EURUSD maintained a bearish momentum last Friday , topped at the 1.3572 levels , and bottomed at the 1.3478 levels , Now pressure will be on the key support 1.3478 .The EURUSD will have to hold below the 1.3478 levels on a daily closing basis…Continue
Added by Haitham653 on February 2, 2014 at 10:46pm — No Comments
The EURUSD maintained a bearish momentum this week , topped at 1.3716 levels , and broke below support 1.3567 . This development leaves the pair targeting the 1.3400 levels where a breach is very likely ,If seen it will turn focus on the 1.3325 levels , further out will aim the 1.3230 levels . a halt is strongly suggested but a cut will bring a free fall towards the 1.2954 levels.
On the upside , resistance comes at the 1.3716 levels , stability below this level on a weekly closing…Continue
Added by Haitham653 on January 31, 2014 at 5:27pm — No Comments
Recommendations: SHORT positions below 1.3559 with 1.3510 & 1.3480 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The upside breakout of 1.3559 will bring rebound to 1.3587/1.3625.
Description: Intraday bias in EURUSD is neutral with downside risk towards 1.3510 ahead of 1.3480 levels as long as resistance 1.3559 holds on hourly basis , stability below 1.3559 will build pressure on the 1.3531 levels , a cut will extend…
Added by Haitham653 on January 31, 2014 at 10:00am — No Comments
Recommendations: LONG positions around 1248 with 1255 & 1260 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The downside breakout of 1244 will bring a slide to 1237/1232.
Description: Intraday bias in XAUUSD is neutral with risk to the upside towards 1255 ahead of 1261 levels as long as support 1244 holds on hourly closing basis , break of 1261 is needed to open 1270/1275 next .On the…
Recommendations: LONG positions above 1.3623 with 1.3680 & 1.3710 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The downside breakout of 1.3623 will bring a slide to 1.3580/1.3550.
Description: Intraday bias in EURUSD is neutral with risk to the upside as long as support 1.3623 holds on hourly basis with risk towards 1.3680 ahead of 1.3710 levels , break of 1.3710 would open 1.3740 next…
Added by Haitham653 on January 28, 2014 at 9:00am — No Comments