ANZ - "USD/JPY: The dips from the tests of 103.80 and 101.50 in recent months are seen as interim legs within a broader corrective pattern. The near term bias is that the recent dip below 0.9650 formed a base from which USD/JPY should be able to post another push into the 101.50-103.80 area in coming weeks.
Assuming that such a move shows signs of faltering, this profile would suggest that another corrective pullback should then develop. However, that pullback should be…
Added by Francesc Riverola on August 23, 2013 at 4:09pm — No Comments
Goldman Sachs - "EUR/$: Our positive stance on the EUR is due to the stronger BBoP trend for the Euro area. In contrast to the weaker balance for the US, this structural imbalance implies a gradually weaker USD and a stronger EUR. Downside risk remains in the Euro area, with growth remaining weak and the ECB signaling that it expects to keep rates low, with a downward bias, for ‘an extended period’. However in the longer run – and after more ‘muddling through’ – we expect…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 24, 2013 at 1:55pm — No Comments
UBS - "EURCHF NEUTRAL Critical resistance is at 1.2485. A closing break above this would be positive, opening 1.2650. Downside should be limited, with support at 1.2371.
EURGBP BULLISH There is a strong resistance at 0.8656, which was tested yesterday. With the momentum tools crossing higher, a closing break above this would trigger further upside. Support is at 0.8563 ahead of 0.8469.
EURJPY BULLISH Downside should be limited, and we expect the support at 128.04 to hold.…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 10, 2013 at 11:00am — No Comments
Deutsche Bank - "UK data has been unambiguously strong recently, but we remain bearish GBP. First, similar to the yen, we don't think outright growth matters for a currency, but how it translates into flow. For the UK, the odds are stronger data translate into weaker flow.
(...) Second, we don't think better growth numbers will translate into tighter monetary policy either. It is too early to justify a hawkish turn, with the output gap large and both household and government leverage…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 4, 2013 at 9:56am — No Comments
Rabobank - "The last few weeks have also seen the EUR push to better levels vs. the JPY. The gains, however have been moderate and EUR/JPY remains well below the levels achieved in May. We remain of the view that the yen can weaken over the medium term. The BoJ in April launched an extremely accommodative monetary policy and this should feed into a softer currency. However, the recent pullback in risk appetite is not conducive to significant yen slippage given the currency’s safe haven…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 3, 2013 at 5:49pm — No Comments
UBS - "EURCHF Bearish. Any upside should be limited with a strong resistance at 1.2384. Support is at 1.2278 ahead of 1.2196
EURGBP Neutral. The cross again bounced from the support at 0.8475. Resistance is at 0.8607 ahead of 0.8656. A closing break below 0.8475 would be negative opening 0.8398.
EURJPY Neutral. Resistance at 130.43 holds the upside move. A break above this would open 133.80. Support is at 124.72; a closing break below this would be negative.
EURUSD Bearish. With…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 28, 2013 at 9:05am — No Comments
UBS - "AUDUSD BEARISH The recent sell-off has put our focus on the momentum tools to cross lower to indicate resumption of downside. Support is at 0.9416 ahead of 0.9326. Resistance is at 0.9666.
USDCAD BEARISH Our focus is on the key support at 1.0120 ahead of 1.0027. Resistance is at 1.0226.
EURCHF BEARISH The sharp sell-off is held by the support at 1.2267. A closing break would trigger deeper sell-off to1.2196. Upside should be limited with strong resistance at 1.2386.
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 18, 2013 at 8:20am — No Comments
UBS - "USDCAD NEUTRAL The recent sharp sell-off tested support at 1.0169, a closing break below this would be negative, triggering a deeper sell-off to 1.0120 and then 1.0027. Resistance is at 1.0224.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.2419 ahead of 1.2460. Support is at 1.2354, a break below would open 1.2267.
EURGBP NEUTRAL The latest weakness is approaching support at 0.8475, a break below this would open 0.8421 and then 0.8398. Resistance is at 0.8527 ahead of 0.8607.
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 11, 2013 at 2:32pm — No Comments
Societé Generale - "If I thought that we were in for calmer times across markets, I would be very, very sorely tempted to come over all yen bearish again, right here and right now. Was $/Y 95 the low for a mini-cycle? The BOJ meeting tomorrow is one of several highlights this week (the German Constitutional Court on Wednesday, Australian employment data Thursday and US retail sales and industrial production data later in the week are others). I doubt they will do much, since the overall…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 10, 2013 at 8:24am — No Comments
Rabobank - "The June Bank of England policy meeting was never likely to be a game changer for sterling. That said, the UK economy has entered into an interesting phase. Finally there are sufficient signs of improvement in data releases to indicate that the country may be entering into a nascent economic recovery. The slightly better tone of economic data will be a relief to Governor King who retires at the end of the month after a difficult tenure. However, King has still left plenty of work…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 7, 2013 at 5:51pm — No Comments
Societé Generale - "Conviction views: the EM sell-off goes on. AUD, CAD, are still a sell. EUR/GBP remains a decent short. Paying 2yr/2yr US vs Europe will remain a core view. For all the market reaction to Draghi, I think the chances of -ive deposit rates in Europe have gone up: he clearly left that door open.
Planning ahead, I want to receive in European rates and buy Gilts relative to Treasuries long before selling EUR/USD. And we are having a flushout in yen shorts that will be an…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 7, 2013 at 12:00pm — No Comments
Societé Generale -
- "Sterling bearishness against both the dollar and euro is now the clearest directional signal from G10 risk reversals.
- Vols are getting more nervous with cable’s down moves, and the EUR/GBP skew has turned sharply to the topside.
- But risk reversals should calm down for now: Carney starts in just a month and we expect the dollar’s upwave to take a pause. In H2 the cable downtrend will resume and propel vols.
- We recommend trading this two-step…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 1, 2013 at 7:10pm — No Comments
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 24, 2013 at 9:00am — No Comments
UBS - "USDCAD BULLISH Initial resistance is at 1.0296, a break above this would open 1.0342 and then 1.0447. Support is at 1.0199.
AUDUSD BEARISH Any upside will be correction, unwinding the overextended downside conditions. Resistance is at 0.9831 ahead of 0.9918. The broader focus is for a test of major support at 0.9582.
EURCHF BULLISH With bullish trend in place, focus is on resistance at 1.2525, a break above which would open 1.2569. Support is at 1.2436 ahead of…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 21, 2013 at 9:59am — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH The pair is under pressure, trading close to Wednesday's low at 1.2843. A break below this would expose 1.2746 ahead of 1.2662. Resistance is at 1.2943 ahead of 1.3029.
EURCHF BULLISH With bullish trend in place, focus is on resistance at 1.2525, a break above this would open 1.2569. Support is at 1.2361.
EURGBP BEARISH With the MACD below its zero line, focus is on support at 0.8389. A break below this would expose the important 0.8587. There is an important…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 17, 2013 at 8:08am — No Comments
UBS - "USDCAD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.0217 ahead of 1.0294. Support is at 1.0082 ahead of 1.0014.
AUDUSD BEARISH Support is at 0.9821, a break below this would pave the way for further weakness to 0.9711. Resistance is at 1.0018.
EURCHF BULLISH With bullish trend in place, focus is on resistance at 1.2515, a break above this would open 1.2569. Support is at 1.2387.
EURGBP NEUTRAL There is an important resistance at 0.8546, a break above would open 0.8590. Support is at 0.8432…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 15, 2013 at 9:03am — No Comments
Westpac - "We have run with a positive bias on GBP for some time now, having chosen to hold this via short EUR/GBP. On Feb 26, we recommended selling EUR/GBP on strength. On March 28 we recommend taking back half of that short position.
On April 11th, we recommended buying GBP outright on the grounds that it was under-owned and was likely to benefit more than most from an improved risk sentiment post the BoJ's QQME announcement. We established long GBP at 1.5333 and added on dips to…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 8, 2013 at 10:54am — No Comments
UBS - "USDCAD NEUTRAL The pair is held by the strong support area at 1.0084/71. A break here would be a bearish development. Resistance is at 1.0175 ahead of 1.0214.
EURCHF BULLISH There is scope for more upside as bullish trend persists. Resistance is at 1.2312 ahead of 1.2349. Support is at 1.2240 and 1.2214.
EURGBP BEARISH The cross is testing important support at 0.8410. A closing break below would be a strong bearish development; triggering deeper sell-off to 0.8285.…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 30, 2013 at 9:30am — No Comments
UBS - "EURCHF BULLISH There is scope for more upside and the next major resistance is at 1.2398. Support is at 1.2264.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Support is at 0.8497, a break below which would expose 0.8463 ahead of 0.8410. Resistance is at 0.8590 ahead of 0.8648.
EURJPY BULLISH As long as support at 127.82 holds, there is potential for the cross to extend its broader strength. Near-term resistance is at 130.70, a break above this would open 132.05.
EURUSD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.3108, a…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 25, 2013 at 10:46am — No Comments
Goldman Sachs - "FX Forecasts: We continue to expect EUR/GBP to appreciate to 0.91, 0.94 and 0.94 in 3, 6 and 12 months. This implies GBP/$ at 1.49 flat. Current GSDEER for EUR/GBP is 0.80 and for GBP/$ is 1.47.
Motivation for Our FX View: While the first leg of EUR/GBP appreciation in 2H2012 was linked to the relaxation of Euro area tensions, GBP weakness has become more idiosyncratic in 2013. The forthcoming change in BoE leadership has created…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 23, 2013 at 5:59pm — No Comments