UBS - EURCHF BEARISH. A closing 1.2267 break would trigger deeper sell-off to1.2196
UBS - "AUDUSD BEARISH The recent sell-off has put our focus on the momentum tools to cross lower to indicate resumption of downside. Support is at 0.9416 ahead of 0.9326. Resistance is at 0.9666.
USDCAD BEARISH Our focus is on the key support at 1.0120 ahead of 1.0027. Resistance is at 1.0226.
EURCHF BEARISH The sharp sell-off is held by the support at 1.2267. A closing break would trigger deeper sell-off to1.2196. Upside should be limited with strong resistance at 1.2386.
EURGBP…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 18, 2013 at 8:20am — No Comments
UBS - AUDUSD Bearish. A closing break below 0.9388 to open 0.9218
UBS - "USDCAD NEUTRAL The recent sharp sell-off tested support at 1.0169, a closing break below this would be negative, triggering a deeper sell-off to 1.0120 and then 1.0027. Resistance is at 1.0224.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.2419 ahead of 1.2460. Support is at 1.2354, a break below would open 1.2267.
EURGBP NEUTRAL The latest weakness is approaching support at 0.8475, a break below this would open 0.8421 and then 0.8398. Resistance is at 0.8527 ahead of 0.8607.
EURJPY…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 11, 2013 at 2:32pm — No Comments
Societé Generale - The BOJ - what next?
Societé Generale - "If I thought that we were in for calmer times across markets, I would be very, very sorely tempted to come over all yen bearish again, right here and right now. Was $/Y 95 the low for a mini-cycle? The BOJ meeting tomorrow is one of several highlights this week (the German Constitutional Court on Wednesday, Australian employment data Thursday and US retail sales and industrial production data later in the week are others). I doubt they will do much, since the overall…
ContinueAdded by Francesc Riverola on June 10, 2013 at 8:24am — No Comments
Rabobank - We Favour Buying Cable on Dips Near-Term
Rabobank - "The June Bank of England policy meeting was never likely to be a game changer for sterling. That said, the UK economy has entered into an interesting phase. Finally there are sufficient signs of improvement in data releases to indicate that the country may be entering into a nascent economic recovery. The slightly better tone of economic data will be a relief to Governor King who retires at the end of the month after a difficult tenure. However, King has still left plenty of work…
ContinueAdded by Francesc Riverola on June 7, 2013 at 5:51pm — No Comments
Societé Generale - AUD, CAD, are still a sell. EUR/GBP remains a decent short
Societé Generale - "Conviction views: the EM sell-off goes on. AUD, CAD, are still a sell. EUR/GBP remains a decent short. Paying 2yr/2yr US vs Europe will remain a core view. For all the market reaction to Draghi, I think the chances of -ive deposit rates in Europe have gone up: he clearly left that door open.
Planning ahead, I want to receive in European rates and buy Gilts relative to Treasuries long before selling EUR/USD. And we are having a flushout in yen shorts that will be an…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 7, 2013 at 12:00pm — No Comments
Societé Generale - Buy forward downside in Cable
Societé Generale -
- "Sterling bearishness against both the dollar and euro is now the clearest directional signal from G10 risk reversals.
- Vols are getting more nervous with cable’s down moves, and the EUR/GBP skew has turned sharply to the topside.
- But risk reversals should calm down for now: Carney starts in just a month and we expect the dollar’s upwave to take a pause. In H2 the cable downtrend will resume and propel vols.
- We recommend trading this two-step…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 1, 2013 at 7:10pm — No Comments
UBS - EURGBP A break above 0.8607 which would extend the strength to 0.8656
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 24, 2013 at 9:00am — No Comments
UBS - AUDUSD Any upside will be correction, unwinding the overextended downside conditions
UBS - "USDCAD BULLISH Initial resistance is at 1.0296, a break above this would open 1.0342 and then 1.0447. Support is at 1.0199.
AUDUSD BEARISH Any upside will be correction, unwinding the overextended downside conditions. Resistance is at 0.9831 ahead of 0.9918. The broader focus is for a test of major support at 0.9582.
EURCHF BULLISH With bullish trend in place, focus is on resistance at 1.2525, a break above which would open 1.2569. Support is at 1.2436 ahead of…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 21, 2013 at 9:59am — No Comments
UBS - EURJPY Bullish. A break above 132.77 to open 134.38 ahead of the more critical 138.49
UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH The pair is under pressure, trading close to Wednesday's low at 1.2843. A break below this would expose 1.2746 ahead of 1.2662. Resistance is at 1.2943 ahead of 1.3029.
EURCHF BULLISH With bullish trend in place, focus is on resistance at 1.2525, a break above this would open 1.2569. Support is at 1.2361.
EURGBP BEARISH With the MACD below its zero line, focus is on support at 0.8389. A break below this would expose the important 0.8587. There is an important…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 17, 2013 at 8:08am — No Comments
UBS - AUDUSD A break below 0.9821 would pave the way for further weakness to 0.9711
UBS - "USDCAD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.0217 ahead of 1.0294. Support is at 1.0082 ahead of 1.0014.
AUDUSD BEARISH Support is at 0.9821, a break below this would pave the way for further weakness to 0.9711. Resistance is at 1.0018.
EURCHF BULLISH With bullish trend in place, focus is on resistance at 1.2515, a break above this would open 1.2569. Support is at 1.2387.
EURGBP NEUTRAL There is an important resistance at 0.8546, a break above would open 0.8590. Support is at 0.8432…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 15, 2013 at 9:03am — No Comments
Westpac - Exit GBP/USD longs
Westpac - "We have run with a positive bias on GBP for some time now, having chosen to hold this via short EUR/GBP. On Feb 26, we recommended selling EUR/GBP on strength. On March 28 we recommend taking back half of that short position.
On April 11th, we recommended buying GBP outright on the grounds that it was under-owned and was likely to benefit more than most from an improved risk sentiment post the BoJ's QQME announcement. We established long GBP at 1.5333 and added on dips to…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 8, 2013 at 10:54am — No Comments
UBS - AUDUSD Bearish. Resistance at 1.0359 should hold any upside
UBS - "USDCAD NEUTRAL The pair is held by the strong support area at 1.0084/71. A break here would be a bearish development. Resistance is at 1.0175 ahead of 1.0214.
EURCHF BULLISH There is scope for more upside as bullish trend persists. Resistance is at 1.2312 ahead of 1.2349. Support is at 1.2240 and 1.2214.
EURGBP BEARISH The cross is testing important support at 0.8410. A closing break below would be a strong bearish development; triggering deeper sell-off to 0.8285.…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 30, 2013 at 9:30am — No Comments
UBS - EURUSD Neutral. A break above 1.3108 to open the more critical 1.3202 and then 1.3232
UBS - "EURCHF BULLISH There is scope for more upside and the next major resistance is at 1.2398. Support is at 1.2264.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Support is at 0.8497, a break below which would expose 0.8463 ahead of 0.8410. Resistance is at 0.8590 ahead of 0.8648.
EURJPY BULLISH As long as support at 127.82 holds, there is potential for the cross to extend its broader strength. Near-term resistance is at 130.70, a break above this would open 132.05.
EURUSD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.3108, a…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 25, 2013 at 10:46am — No Comments
Goldman Sachs - Sterling should resume its trend weaker
Goldman Sachs - "FX Forecasts: We continue to expect EUR/GBP to appreciate to 0.91, 0.94 and 0.94 in 3, 6 and 12 months. This implies GBP/$ at 1.49 flat. Current GSDEER for EUR/GBP is 0.80 and for GBP/$ is 1.47.
Motivation for Our FX View: While the first leg of EUR/GBP appreciation in 2H2012 was linked to the relaxation of Euro area tensions, GBP weakness has become more idiosyncratic in 2013. The forthcoming change in BoE leadership has created…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 23, 2013 at 5:59pm — No Comments
UBS - EURJPY BULLISH A break above 129.74 would open 132.05 ahead of 134.38
UBS - "EURCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.2213. Strong support is at 1.2120.
EURGBP BULLISH The cross came under pressure from resistance at 0.8648. A closing break above would be positive, opening 0.8747. Support is at 0.8490 ahead of 0.8436.
EURJPY BULLISH Initial resistance is at 129.74, a break above would open 132.05 ahead of 134.38. Support is at 126.44 ahead of 124.94.
EURUSD NEUTRAL Support is at 1.2974 ahead of 1.2920. Resistance is at 1.3126 ahead of the more critical…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 19, 2013 at 7:47am — No Comments
JP Morgan - The broader picture still inherits great down risks for GBP, except against JPY and EUR
JP Morgan - "The strong overshooting of key-Fib.-resistance at 1.5346 (minor 38.2 %) in Cable has caused a bit of a headache as it is currently unclear whether we are only dealing with an overshooting, internal 4th wave recovery or with a IInd wave on bigger scale. The latter could easily extend to 1.5775-88/1.5812 (200 DMA/int. 61.8 %/ monthly triangle) and possibly to 1.6014 (int. 76.4 %) where good risk rewards would be given to re-enter or to add to core short positions. A renewed break…
ContinueAdded by Francesc Riverola on April 17, 2013 at 8:01am — No Comments
Westpac - Out of short EUR/GBP into long GBP/USD
Westpac - "We have run with a positive bias on GBP for some time now, having chosen to hold this via short EUR/GBP. On Feb 26, we recommended selling EUR/GBP on strength, establishing a full short position at an average price of 0.8718. On March 28 we recommend taking back half of that short position at 0.8440.
We have hit our trailing stop (0.8585) on the balance of this position and have now closed it for a 2.36% return to our portfolio.
On April 11 we recommended rolling from…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 17, 2013 at 7:44am — No Comments
UBS - EURJPY BULLISH The risk is for resumption of strength as bullish trend persists
UBS - "EURCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.2173 ahead of 1.2213. Strong support is at 1.2120.
EURGBP NEUTRAL The cross is unwinding the sharp sell-off of March. Resistance is at 0.8560 ahead of 0.8602. Support is at 0.8463 ahead of 0.8410.
EURJPY BULLISH The risk is for resumption of strength as bullish trend persists. Resistance is at 128.03 ahead of 132.05. Support is at 123.70.
EURUSD NEUTRAL Support is at 1.2988, a break below this would expose 1.2896. Resistance is at 1.3138…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 16, 2013 at 8:04am — No Comments
RBS - A break of 1.5425 level to set a move to 1.56 as further short GBP/USD positions are squeezed
Royal Bank of Scotland - "An absence of new reasons to add to short GBP positions has continued to see a trimming of speculative positions, most noticeably in GBP/USD. However, the move in GBP/USD also reflects a more cautious USD environment, as the last set of US payroll numbers continue to lead to jitters about the strength of the US recovery and what this may mean for the tapering of the Fed's asset purchases. This is also reflected by the relative stability of EUR/GBP.
(...) The…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 15, 2013 at 7:41pm — No Comments
Westpac - Buy GBP/USD
Westpac - "We have run with a positive bias on GBP for some time now, having chosen to hold this via short EUR/GBP. On Feb 26, we recommended selling EUR/GBP on strength. On March 28 we recommend taking back half of that short position.
However, this trade has shown signs of maturing over the last week and a half as EUR has rebounded from recent lows. Kuroda’s QQME added to the Fed’s LSAP means we are entering a new phase of QE driven markets.
The BoJ will more than double the amount…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 11, 2013 at 10:06am — No Comments
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