EUR slowly looses positions from last Wednesday's upside jump and is trading currently at the 1.2750 support. Next stronger support is at 1.2700, for which i ecpect to hold and the recovery to continue to 1.2900 and above. However if for some reason we have a Daily close below 1.2700, this will reopen the way back to 1.2540 and below. This week we do not have any so much important news, except PMI data on Thursday and US jobless claims later the same day.
GOLD is locked within the…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on October 20, 2014 at 5:15am — No Comments
The rally from last month’s 2 year low extended last week. This 2nd up week in succession was a tentative move dominated by Monday’s gains and uncomfortable above .7900. In fact the last 5 trading days have oscillated around the important 13 day moving average. Although this clearly highlights a degree of uncertainty, and Friday’s close was marginally below the average line, 3cA studies are left mildly positive with potential through .7900 to .7932.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on October 13, 2014 at 6:56am — No Comments
EUR was unable to reach 1.2350 weekly target as the last downside push has been stopped by the 1.2500 level. A powerful recovery followed reaching 1.2800. Currently we are above the main daily support @ 1.2650 and seems the recovery is going to continue with first target 1.2730 and second one at 1.2800 finally 1.3000. However it is too early to say that any downside is over as the daily indicators are showing unstable recovery. Today is a non-working day for USA, Canada and Japan, markets…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on October 13, 2014 at 5:33am — No Comments
"Broad-based dollar strength to continue, subject to positioning adjustments.
We expect the dollar to continue outperforming within G10 heading into year-end. Policy differentials will consolidate in the dollar's favour and the latest round of data suggest that the balance of risks has shifted towards the Fed becoming more assertive. On top of the strong September payrolls report, our economists note that September ISM figures appeared 'consistent with 5% real GDP growth and 300k'…
Added by Daologic on October 7, 2014 at 5:33am — No Comments
Weekly charts tell a similar story to the daily picture, only from a longer-term point of view; the EUR sell-off remains entrenched but somewhat extended; loss of support around 1.2750/90 leaves the EUR vulnerable to a drop back to the 1.20 if the last retracement support derived from the 2012/2014 rally at…Continue
EUR closed another week at the lowest price with still absolutely no signs of recovery. Seems that the target is the Monthly SMA200 at 1.2220, but the pair may even try an attempt to go below. I doubt it will succeed. This week's target will be 1.2350. Daily resistance is 1.2690 and the pair has no chances of breaking it higher. EUR is now extremely bearish as all bulls are dead and the dollar makes more gains after a lot better than expected NFP data. There is no so important data releases…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on October 6, 2014 at 5:15am — No Comments
Start of the downtrend: 1.3655
Macro: The diverging stance between FED and ECB. FED has started to tighten the monetary conditions since the start of tapering process. ECB has eased the monetary conditions. This conditions will persist untill the inflation in the EZ will start to revive to ECB commfort levels (2-3%).
Correction: There have been no correction yet. I wait for a correction to sell EURUSD.
Yesterday, somehow, governor Draghi has disappointed the markets. He left out, with an unclear view, some fine details about the ABS and bond purchase programm.
I quote from Rabobank: " Draghi’s accompanying press conference was somewhat of a disappointment, as a lot of details were left out. Most importantly, Draghi did not say a word about risks to the inflation (what happened to “broadly balanced”?), nor did he give any specific details on the size of the purchase programmes –…Continue
Added by Daologic on October 3, 2014 at 7:30am — No Comments
"We already own some upside cover in EURUSD via a 1.31 EUR call suggested a month ago but we think the extended move lower in EURUSD is at even greater risk of stalling now and that spot levels are attractive for a buyers looking for a short-term bounce."
"Short-term rate spreads suggest EURUSD fair value is close to 1.30 right now. The fundamental drivers of the recent EUR decline—diverging data trends and yield differentials—are now moving the other way. EURUSD perhaps has to catch…Continue
"Negative nominal rates are a powerful medium-term EUR negative and markets aren't trading like EUR/USD positioning is stretched. Stay short as a confirmed break of 1.2671 could lead to an early test of multi-year lows. While GBP/USD should also fall, short EUR/GBP looks a more compelling monetary policy divergence play. RBNZ Governor Wheeler's talk of possible currency intervention is significant and supports our view that NZD/CAD falls further. We add short AUD/CAD as iron ore prices are…Continue
Added by Daologic on September 29, 2014 at 7:49am — No Comments
EUR has continued the free fall which started nearly 10 weeks ago. News from the EU and ermany are continuous worse and worse while over the Atlantic Mrs.Yellen continues to reduce the stimulus program. From the other side seems that 1000 pips were not enough for the big players to take their profit and they continued to sell EUR. Are they brave enough to bring the price to 1.2210? Technically this is not impossible. This price is the monthly SMA200 line and it is a good target. This monthly…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on September 29, 2014 at 5:12am — No Comments
"A smaller than expected tLTRO take-up and largely unchanged FOMC language wasn't sufficient to squeeze EUR/USD higher as we had expected, so we square tactical long EUR/USD exposure. We continue to hold strategic shorts looking for a move to 1.27 or below by year-end and 1.22 by mid-2015 as negative nominal rates are a powerful medium-term EUR negative. While the dust settles post the Scottish referendum we keep our GBP powder dry, but will look to sell EUR/GBP rallies. Data surprises may…Continue
Added by Daologic on September 22, 2014 at 5:58am — No Comments
EUR continues free fall and indicators on H4, Daily and Weekly are extremely bearish. Seems that still noone is going to take profit from Short, and this tells me that more slide is to come. Today mr.Draghi will speak, but tomorrow will be the PMI data release and if it is weak again EUR will possibly drop below 1.2805 support. On Wednesday we shall have the Germany's IFO which is expected to be worse than previous too. On Thursday the most important news will be the US jobless claims report…Continue
EUR is in a consolidation mode again before the next slide down. Possible support that will stop the downside is 1.2600 and the final one is around 1.2300 but i doubt we shall reach there soon. There was a large amount of unexpected bad EUR news and it seems the things over the Atlantic are getting a lot better. It is expected the FED to make another stimulus cut from 25 bln to 15 bln. This will push the EUR even lower till the end of this week. Today is expected the Gernamy's ZEW to be a…Continue
"We highlighted developments on the weekly chart Friday but it is probably worth reiterating what is going on here after USDCAD closed out the week at its best levels since March. The broader bull trend is slowly but surely getting back on track after the Q2 correction; that slide saw funds test, and hold, major support defined by the trend off the 2012 low and the 40- week/200-day MA. The consolidation since March formed a bull wedge and the July break above…Continue
Added by Daologic on September 15, 2014 at 2:55pm — No Comments
EUR continues the free fall and nothing seems to stop it. Target is set to 1.2805 and even below to 1.2765. Correction higher is needed, but still noone takes any profit, this means they expect more drop.Correction will start once we have over 60 pips upside H4 candle. Indicators on all time frames except M5 and M15 are extremely bearish. Maybe today we shall see some profit taking.
GOLD again is hit by the strong dollar and reached the support area 1254. If we don't see any EUR…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on September 9, 2014 at 6:28am — No Comments
Deeper and deeper EUR goes with another gap lower opening week. Finally the big players sold the EUR they have since close to 1.4000 levels. Where EUR is going to stop - it is not clear yet, but somewhere around 1.3066 we have a support area. We are currently some 200 pips below the weekly Senkou Span B price of the positive Ichimoku,however we have broken it lower too early and we have to make some significant correction higher before this break to be confirmed. The dollar is extremely…Continue
"CFTC data for currency futures through the week ending August 26th showed that investors and speculative accounts continue to bet big on an…Continue
Added by Daologic on September 1, 2014 at 4:42am — No Comments
EUR dropped to 1.3185 this morning and opened the week with a huge downside gap. Today the pair may consolidate around 1.3200, and tomorrow to start a recovery. This week is the end of the month trade, so i expect some profit taking from Short after Wednesday. Weekly, Daily and H4 indicators are bearish but are already turning flat to bullish, so i think we are going to have a recovery soon, although opening with such a gap lower is not a good sign.
GOLD was not able to close the week…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 25, 2014 at 5:39am — No Comments
EUR has lost almost 200 pips since Monday and the pair despreately needs a correction but still there are no any signs of a possible correction. EUR is in a free fall state, after bad data from the EU and Germany, and better news from the US. Dollar is stronger than ever but i wonder if this is a temporary strength or the start of continuous EUR weakness. The pair needs a correction at least to 1.3330-50, and maybe more next week. But first we need to deal with the 1.3290-1.3310 resistance…Continue