Societé Generale - "Good Morning. Buy the dollar, sell EMFX and sell carry. It isn't about when the Fed “tapers”, it's about too many positions on the same side of the boat and the danger of a capsize.
When the Fed will slow its Treasury purchases will be data-dependent and the Funds rate may be less important in policy-making going forwards. Those are the direct takeaways from the FOMC minutes but the market tells us something different. The prospect of low rates for a long time…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 23, 2013 at 10:04am — No Comments
EUR has reached my long targets from yesterday and is currently at the resistance line 1.2930 which is also the border of the ascending channel from 1.2047. Breaking above may happen only on dollar negative news from Mr.Bernarke, so untin that and FOMC decision i expect a range trade between 1.2860 and 1.2930, significant moves may happen in later american session or tomorrow.
GOLD is again in a stand-by, waiting for the dollar to choose direction.
Royal Bank of Scotland - "EUR has been supported by a rapidly improving current account surplus that is now at a Euro-era record. It has been supported by less ECB QE as banks have repaid some LTRO funds. It has been supported by a steady rebound in periphery assets (Spain and Italian 10 year spreads over bunds are around the lows since July 2011, and their outright yields are at lows since July 2010). However, it has been weakened by an ECB rate cut and a preparedness to discuss negative…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 21, 2013 at 10:11am — No Comments
EUR has found a temporary support at 1.2800, but we have still chances to go to 1.2700 this week, for this we need another test of 1.2900. The price is currently very shy going upside, and seems that at any moment this would reverse to the downside again.Tomorrow will be the key as EU leaders' summit starts and later in the day mr.Bernarke will speak, finally the FOMC decision which will be a no surprise. With some good EU data and a little help from mr.Bernarke EUR may reach the 1.2990 area…Continue
EU GBP Gold and Oil Forecast 21 May 2013
Good afternoon forex,
Nice to see all seven currencies meet or exceed my expectations today as per my trading plan. Support and resistance lines tracked according to my specs and volatility was equally matched. After reviewing today's price action here's my technical blueprint.
USDCAD: Closed at 1.0239. Resistance now at or near 1.0295. Minor support at or near 1.0218 followed by stronger support at or near 1.0150. BIAS: Mildly bearish. Catalysts: CAD…Continue
Added by The Zedder on May 20, 2013 at 10:30pm — No Comments
UBS - "The dollar remains our favoured currency for 2013. The US economy is likely to expand more than its peers. The Federal Reserve is set to exit uncoventional monetary policy before other major central banks. Dollar diversification by central bank reserve managers and sovereign wealth funds is subdued, and America's shale energy revolution is cutting its current account deficit. Our bullish view on the greenback has become more consensus now. But if the dollar does embark on a multi-year…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 20, 2013 at 5:28pm — No Comments
Brown Brothers Harriman - "Euro: A large head and shoulders pattern is being carved out. The neckline is seen near the late March and early April lows around $1.2740. Below there is the low from last November near $1.2660, which is just below the $1.2680 retracement objective ($1.2680) of Draghi's OMT induced rally. The measuring objective of the head and shoulders pattern would carry the single currency below $1.20, our year-end target. The euro's 50-day moving average has…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 20, 2013 at 5:20pm — No Comments
Bank of America Merrill Lynch - "We expect the Euro outlook in the next few months to be determined by ECB policies and market expectations for their direction compared with FED policies. In turn, we believe that the impact of ECB policies on the Euro will be determined by the balance between monetary policy loosening to address weakness in the core
Eurozone economies and deflation risks on the one hand, and policies to address the continued credit crunch in the periphery on the other.…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 20, 2013 at 11:11am — No Comments
SHORT EUR below 1.2850 SL 1.2860 TP 1.2800-1.2770
LONG EUR above 1.2860 SL 1.2840 TP 1.2905-1.2925-1.2950
SHORT GOLD below 1370 SL 1375 TP 1300-1290
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on May 20, 2013 at 4:25am — No Comments
EUR has bounced back from the fibo level at 1.2915 and currently is trading around support of 1.2850. We are in a quite interesting technical situation. 1.2850 is a serios support level, breaking below have to take us far more down, breaking above that again will be hard too. Technically breaking of 1.2850 will take us at least 150 pips down to 1.2700, downside may extend even to 1.2620. One of these both has to bounce and the price will reverse to the upside reaching 1.3000 once again…Continue
Another day - another fall, deeper and deeper we go and seems there is no end. First test of 1.2850 was unsuccessful, there was only about 30 pips pullback for now and maybe another test will follow today, breaking of 1.2850 will lead us quickly to 1.2730-1.2700. Weekly indicators are negative and heavily point to the downside with first target 1.2760. Daily indicators show that soon a correction will follow. H4, H1 and smaller frames show that correction is trying to begin. The correction…Continue
TD Securities - "We have upgraded our outlook for the USD across a broad front. We are adjusting our views to reflect some market developments that have occurred a little more rapidly than we had expected (such as the push up in USD/JPY). But we are also recognising the emergence of some trends that we feel support our long-held view that the USD’s secular bear trend is very mature and is poised to show signs of a further recovery.
(...) We have upgraded out USD/JPY forecast to reflect…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 14, 2013 at 3:02pm — No Comments
Societé Generale - "The FX markets are now under the influence of a trilogy of themes: the American economic revival, diverging monetary policy expectations and the (unfinished) euro area (EA) crisis.
Those themes all point in the same direction: a stronger dollar. Dollar strength is now far less dependent on risk conditions; the US economic outperformance and the fears of a not-too-distant Fed exit imply that the dollar is no longer a funding currency of choice in the carry trade. The…
EUR performed a flat consolidation within a narrow range yesterday and tested once again support 1.2940-50 but quickly recovered showing that around 1.2950 there are a lot of buyers. This morning we have a jump higher reaching the MA200 on H4 @ 1.3025. breaking above that MA200 will take us to 1.3070. However further upside today will be difficult and is very possible the price to reverse this afternoon back to 1.3000. Daily and H4 indicators are bullish, smaller too, just H1 is bearish at…Continue
EUR dropped down on Friday as the second test of 1.3190 was unsuccessful. In fact i was expecting a fail a little above and making a double top. Currently EUR has stopped at the 1.2960 support but the downside pressure is still too strong on H4, indicators on H1 show a close recovery to 1.3020 and drop again to 1.2950 at least. The target will be 1.2860 area, where is the diagonal support line starting from in 1.2050. I think it will bounce this time too, so go long close to 1.2860 and…Continue
EUR has made some progress to the upside and the diagonal support line of which i have talked yesterday has done a good job. EUR has reached three of my long targets and now consolidates around the support zone 1.3150-65. It is very likely in the following hours to make another test of 1.3195 and if unsuccessful to reverse back to 1.3130. Please note that any drop below 1.3085 will take us quickly to 1.3000 and maybe below. For now 1.3130 serves as a good support so you may enter LONG there…Continue
Looking at the EUR vs CAD using the Ichimoku system we can see that price has bounced off of the bottom of the Kumo Cloud. The bottom of the cloud is resistance at the 1.32380 mark. Also we have Fib levels drawn in and the 50% retracement level is in confluence with the bottom of the cloud giving us even more reason to believe the resistance level will hold. The 100 period MA which is…Continue
EUR has made another attempt to go higher,but not successful and finally continues consolidation from the beginning of the week. We have a diagonal support line starting from 23 april 2013 which caps any downside for now.breaking below will take us at least 100 pips down. All indicators on almost all time frames are going flat. We are failing to break the 1.3000 level for over a month and any break will take us below for a continuous period too. However as long as we are above the upside is…Continue
EUR consolidated almost the whole day yesterday and later through the american session it dropped to 1.3053 with a 25 pips pullback then stablilized around 1.3080. Currently the EUR is in another consolidation and is slowly heading towards 1.3100. At 1.3115 we have a fibo level and if the price breaks it higher the move to the north will continue with first target 1.3150 then 1.3185 and then 1.3230. On Daily chart we are deeply inside a negative ichimoku and if we have any upside move it…Continue