EUR dropped below 1.3450 support and now consolidates inside the main support area between 1.3420 and 1.3450. It is expected the pair to test 1.3400. EUR is bearish on all time frames except Weekly and Monthly. The resistance area is 1.3445-1.3455 and if broken the target will be 1.3475-85. To the downside breaking of 1.3400 may lead to another drop to 1.3300.
GOLD bounced from the Senkous Span B price last week and currently continues recovery above 1294. At the moment of writing the…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on July 28, 2014 at 4:51am — No Comments
EUR dropped below 1.3500 yesterday and is now approaching a strong support area which is going to stop the downside move and to start a recovery to the upside.This area is between 1.3420 and 1.3450. However if 1.3400 is broken this will lead to another 100 pips drop, but i think this won't happen this month. Since today's opening the EUR shows signs of recovery. The target is 1.3500 and above but the first attempt may not succeed.
GOLD is pretty calm in this situation, hovering above…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on July 23, 2014 at 6:23am — No Comments
The double top at 1.3965 (and the break under the neckline trigger) targets a drop back to the upper 1.33s—our long-held target for a downside extension. Trend momentum is negative on the shorter-term (6-hour and daily) studies. Even with spot reversing from the intraday low and closing…Continue
Added by Daologic on July 21, 2014 at 2:34pm — No Comments
We expect that the JPY is still on course for softening vs. the USD over the medium-term as the progression of Fed tapering highlights the extremely accommodative position of the BoJ. However, near-term the readjustment in expectations regarding the outlook for the AUD, NZD and the EUR could be providing additional support for the yen. Layered on top of the prevailing geopolitical risks and the adjustments…Continue
Added by Daologic on July 21, 2014 at 11:13am — No Comments
EUR still holds 1.3520 by the end of the week, but let's first take a look on my previous forecast. on Wednesday i have forecasted that the EUR will continue sliding down to the support area 1.3490-1.3500. Well it still didn't reached that but went too close and the week is not over yet.We can see some stabilization just above that support area. So maybe some correction to the upside is possible today for example to 1.3540-50 and then another push to the downside again.
EUR dropped yesterday following a lot worse than expected ZEW data from Germany and Eurozone. Today i expect the downside to continue with target 1.3490-1.3500 support area. If that is broken too (maybe not today) downside will continue to the major support and reversal area 1.3420-30. Closing below that on Weekly will reverse the bullish trend. But I don't think this will happen soon. Currently EUR is bearish on all time frames, so more downside to come, do not enter LONG. A correction has…Continue
Fundamentally, we feel that even relatively disappointing US growth so far this year contrasts with weak (or weakening) growth trends in the Eurozone while the Fed’s steady move away from QE contrasts with the ECB’s recent embrace of more expansive, non -traditional policy measures. This should be EURUSDnegative.
Based on spot/equity regressions through the 2011/12 period, relative banking sector equity performances currently suggest a EURUSD fair value of…Continue
Added by Daologic on July 16, 2014 at 4:30am — No Comments
EUR is consolidating again ahead of Daily Senkou Span A price but as long as the price is below 1.3640 the pair is quite vulnerable to a sudden drop to 1.3540-50 for example. However this will be only a temporary weakness. And the consolidation outlook won't be changed even if the price drops to 1.3500. I think that the EUR will try to enter the negative Daily Ichimoku in the next 10 days and this means reaching 1.3700. Once above 1.3700, the final resistance will be 1.3750, and if we have a…Continue
Bank of America Merrill Lynch - "€/$: We are bearish and short. The impulsive, intra-day decline from the Jul-01 high at 1.3701 says the medium, potentially long term, bear trend is resuming after a 2 month hiatus. Initial targets are seen to 1.3212 (swing target) ahead of 1.3104 and then the 1.2777/1.2685 zone and eventually below. Our bearish view would prove incorrect on a move above the 1.3701, Jul-01 high."
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 9, 2014 at 9:30am — No Comments
"There seems to be a fair amount of anxiousness ahead of today’s FOMC minutes but European investors will have to wait until after the market close for their release (7pm London). DB’s Joe Lavorgna expects the minutes to reveal a more hawkish side to the FOMC than has been presented from Yellen’s recent public commentary. Judging by the trading patterns on previous FOMC minutes days, the minutes have been a bridge between the…Continue
EUR has stopped for a while the free fall, but it almost has no chances of any recovery to the upside as we have a strong resistance area built by several resistance lines. This resistance area is between 1.3630 and 1.3660. If we have any recovery into this area please keep in mind that the new downside wave may start at any moment. Upside reversal may happen only on a Daily close above 1.3680. If so, then the negative Daily Ichimoku will be inder attack and the target price will be…Continue
A sequence of 2 up weeks ended last week despite initial upside reaching the most positive levels for 6 weeks. This was achieved at the beginning of the week but prices were unable to be sustained above the 200 day moving average and 4 consecutive daily losses were posted into Friday’s close. With the 13 day moving average breached and medium-term signals turning increasingly negative we look for the downside to deepen further.
Potential exists to 1.3477 and even towards 1.3369, a…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on July 7, 2014 at 6:51am — No Comments
"If the EUR/USD resilience implies that the ECB is still under the shadow of the Fed, then those ‘other’ European central banks are under the influence of the ECB. Following the ECB’s rate cuts last month, the SNB, Riksbank and the Norges Bank all became much more aggressively dovish. In order to counter the risk that low rates will accentuate excessive risk taking (specifically in the mortgage market), these banks are…Continue
Added by Daologic on July 4, 2014 at 9:00am — No Comments
"By cutting the repo rate by 50 bps this morning, the Riksbank went much further than the market had expected. It is clear that deflationary risks were the principal trigger for the move; in May the headline CPI rate printed -0.2% y/y, with the underlying rate only moderately better at +0.4% y/y. That said, despite the near absence of inflationary pressures the market had expected the Riksbank to announce a more…Continue
Added by Daologic on July 3, 2014 at 9:46am — No Comments
Today is the ECB meeting and the central bank will have to decide wheather to implement additional tools to stimulate inflation or not. As the price is above 1.3630 EUR/USD is bullish. First target is 1.3725 and the second one is 1.3780, finally 1.3840-50, where a correction to the downside must appear. Bearish scenario is if 1.3630 is broken, first target will be 1.3590-1.3600 support area, if broken next target will be 1.3510-1.3485. Remember that tomorrow US markets will be closed because…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on July 3, 2014 at 6:16am — No Comments
As expected EUR moved to the upside reaching 1.3700-1.3710 resistance area which bounced back the price on first attempt. This upside recovery may reach some more highs, but i think that by the end of the week we shall have a reversal and drop below 1.3650 again. Currently the price is supported by the 1.3680-1.3670 support area and we are bullish as long as the price is above that support area. My model shows that the upside may even reach 1.3810 on some fundamental news, before the…Continue
EUR is creating some artificial volatility while waiting for the end of the month. Soon the summer holidays will start and the volatility will be low.Everybody is now waiting for the end of the month and the next ECB meeting to see wheather mr.Draghi will implement further stimulus. We remain in an ascending channel despite yesterday's spike to the H4 Senkou Span B price of the positive H4 cloud. Of course it was too early to break it lower and the price quickly reversed, but i think big…Continue
"The USD is still trying to make up for the ground it lost yesterday following the release of a very disappointing Q1 GDP revision.
Against the backdrop of yesterday's GDP surprising further tumble, even an on consensus PCE core…Continue
Added by Daologic on June 26, 2014 at 1:10pm — No Comments
The consolidation above the 13 day moving average turned to more significant buying interest yesterday as the average platformed gains. 2 week highs were posted and although almost half of that upside was reversed into the close, the move leaves intraday sentiment more positive. With this underlying tone, but with caution,there is scope for the market to focus on 1.3670 and 1.3694.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on June 26, 2014 at 6:28am — No Comments
We continue to see downside pressure building on EUR rates and upside pressure for US rates. The sharp fall in Australian rates has narrowed the AUD/USD yield advantage to a low since August last year. It is difficult to get behind a broad rally in Asian currencies, which have so far failed to benefit much from rising risk appetite, but we see scope for MYR outperformance on the recent rise in Malaysian rates. Given the…Continue
Added by Daologic on June 25, 2014 at 7:17am — No Comments