All Blog Posts Tagged 'ECB' (300)

Rabobank FX:GBP - too bearish?


Relative to its July high, GBP/USD is currently trading around 7.5% lower.  We do not expect that this adjustment has any further to go near-term.   Even though we see no need for the BoE to rush into a rate hike (we expect no move until May at the earliest), equally we do not expect the Fed to have to hurry to adjust policy.  Wage inflation and disinflationary pressure are also evident in the US and we do…


Added by Daologic on November 12, 2014 at 9:46am — No Comments

TD:FX Set-up: Draghi Takes the Center Stage

" (...)

So we look for Draghi to reinforce that the ECB is acting, that ABS buying is ready a month earlier than expected, and that if it feels the need to expand the programs further, it will do so in the future, but not now.  This will likely disappoint market expectations given…


Added by Daologic on November 6, 2014 at 12:35pm — No Comments

ECB, inflation and EURO

Yesterday, somehow, governor Draghi has disappointed the markets. He left out, with an unclear view, some fine details about the ABS and bond purchase programm.

I quote from Rabobank: " Draghi’s accompanying press conference was somewhat of a disappointment, as a lot of details were left out. Most importantly, Draghi did not say a word about risks to the inflation (what happened to “broadly balanced”?), nor did he give any specific details on the size of the purchase programmes –…


Added by Daologic on October 3, 2014 at 7:30am — No Comments

TD:USD Rally In Pursuit of New Boundaries

"The next two weeks are going to be very busy in terms of data releases and events. The slew of data will kick-off tonight with Japanese inflation, followed by tomorrow's US Q2 GDP final estimate, US PCE and Eurozone inflation on Monday and Tuesday, the Japanese Tankan on Wednesday, the ECB meeting on Thursday, and…


Added by Daologic on September 26, 2014 at 4:57am — 1 Comment

UBS FX Comment - Dollar Softness Temporary

"The dollar is trading soft into the summer against higher yielding currencies as investors expect the Federal Reserve will continue to keep interest rates unchanged far into 2015. US yields at 2.53% for ten year paper remain well below the 3.00% levels seen at the start of 2014.(...)

Counting Petrodollars, Seeking Risk - and near record low levels of currency market volatility are encouraging investors to use the dollar as a funding currency for carry trades. But the softness in the…


Added by Daologic on June 30, 2014 at 5:39am — No Comments

RBS:Fundamental case for selling EUR vs USD builds


Further fundamental deterioration of EUR vs. USD evident in lower PMI in Europe and stronger PMI in US (high in the Markit series since 2010). Dovish talk from the ECB continues. There will be several Fed speakers this week, they may be less dovish. GBP event risk starts tonight with BoE parliamentary testimony. The risks are for a pull-back in the GBP, but its yield support, trend and solid global risk appetite suggest…


Added by Daologic on June 24, 2014 at 7:06am — No Comments

RBS: Trading strategy

"Stay short EUR/GBP as the EUR under-performs broadly on rate spread moves and GBP finds support from Carney's aggressive intervention in the UK monetary policy debate. Commodity and EM currencies supported by gradual global recovery and pro-cyclical easing by the ECB and to a lesser extent the PBoC. A more hawkish Fed is a risk, so EUR/USD may have more downside. Long NOK/SEK positions vulnerable on the chances of a softer Norges Bank rate profile, but significant NOK falls should be seen…


Added by Daologic on June 16, 2014 at 6:54am — No Comments

Rabobank FX: USD - time to buy?

"We have argued for some time that the ECB remains in the shadow of the Fed.  Despite maintaining an extremely dovish position for a prolonged period EUR/USD has retained a firm position.  While the strong movement back into peripheral assets can be associated with EUR strength since the end of 2012, the persistent weak tone of the USD has kept EUR/USD…


Added by Daologic on June 11, 2014 at 9:27am — No Comments

Rabobank FX: AUD/NZD - changing times?

"Potentially more interesting are the cross rates.  Following last week’s ECB policy action, the AUD has reached its strongest level since last Nov vs. the EUR  and the CHF.  AUD/NZD is holding above the 200 days sma close to a 5 mth high.  The market has fully priced in a 25 bp rate hike from the RBNZ on June 11.  This would be the third hike of the cycle.  Crucial, however, will be the direction offer by the RBNZ in its…


Added by Daologic on June 10, 2014 at 10:08am — No Comments

Week 24 trading stubs, volatility is back ?


With blips of volatility last week, the markets seem to be more promising for coming weeks in terms of longer term moves. The fundamental decision by ECB to go negative with deposit interest rates is likely to send EUR much lower from where we are at the moment. As far as the setups from the last week, trend continuation long play on CAC40 got filled @4497's level and stopped me out almost immediately for -24 pips, however 4 hours candle closed @4497…


Added by FuturesMO on June 9, 2014 at 1:41pm — No Comments

UBS FX Comment - Insidious Interest Rates

"The European Central Bank's decision to adopt negative interest rates, undertake new Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operation loans and increase liquidity is set to cap the euro in its current 1.35-1.40 range against the dollar. In order for the single currency to make further losses in the near term, the Federal Reserve will need to keep tapering its asset purchases and signal its willingness to start raising interest rates in 2015.

 But while the ECB's actions this month may not be…


Added by Daologic on June 9, 2014 at 6:39am — No Comments

Deutsche bank-Early Morning Reid: ECB and euro

"Overall I think the measures are more market friendly than economic friendly though. Monetary policy works with long lags and even if these measures were to stimulate activity/inflation (which is still debatable) we might not see it in the data until well into 2015. The clamour for more stimulus is likely to emerge well before that. However Draghi has likely bought himself some time at least.…


Added by Daologic on June 6, 2014 at 8:27am — No Comments

RBS:Viewpoint about recent ECB and RBNZ actions

"The ECB have eased policy significantly and implied rates will stay low much longer than the Fed. Price action in the EUR suggests it may firm short term, but it is hard to see a sustained rally. We continue to remain constructive on the USD though admit a broad risk asset rally near term may work against it. As occurred post-BoJ policy easing in April last year, we watch for evidence that the Fed worries more about excessive financial instability risks and stronger US economic data build…


Added by Daologic on June 6, 2014 at 6:07am — No Comments

BBH CurrencyView: Dollar Softens Ahead of BOE and ECB Decisions

"Barring a significant surprise from the ECB, we suspect the knee-jerk reaction will be to sell the euro, but that the pullback is likely to be limited and seen as a new opportunity to buy the euro and European assets.  We argue that underlying causes of the euro's resilience are tied to two factors the at the ECB will not be addressing:  1) the large current account surplus and…


Added by Daologic on June 5, 2014 at 10:46am — No Comments

Deutsche Bank: Today's ECB action

"Looking back, in August '07 the ECB injected €170bn into markets after money markets had seized up as banks basically refused to lend to each other. The point of today's intervention must surely be more directed at the underlying economy. However there will be many (including us) that would say that the ECB's success will likely depend on how much they can push the Euro lower. Will today be enough? Probably not on its own but…


Added by Daologic on June 5, 2014 at 8:00am — No Comments

BBH:The main event of the week is the ECB meeting

"The main event of the week is the ECB meeting.  Inflation, or indeed the lack thereof, is understood to be a key spur for official action.  At the end of last week, both Spain and Italy reported soft CPI figures. Yesterday Germany did too.  The fact that the flash euro area estimate came in today at 0.5%, down from 0.7% in April and below the prior consensus of 0.6% is not…


Added by Daologic on June 3, 2014 at 1:10pm — No Comments

RBS:"Waiting for Mario"

"Today and tomorrow are about 'Waiting for Mario' For EUR FX that means assessing how much of what ECB will do Thursday is already discounted. We suspect the answer is most, if not all. Street analysts generally want to be short EUR/USD so we marginally prefer the long side – but it is marginal."

Added by Daologic on June 3, 2014 at 12:25pm — No Comments

BMO FX Strategy Daily - USDCAD

"Support 1.0800 Resistance 1.0875

Looks like it should be a quiet start today to what should be an important week ahead. Friday’s GDP data was weaker than expected but the topside resistance near 1.0875 once again held and we put this supply down to continued EURCAD selling which has stabilised around 1.4800 for now. No data from Canada…


Added by Daologic on June 2, 2014 at 11:45am — No Comments

UBS - This week's key points for currencies: ECB to cut deposit rate below zero in the week ahead

UBS - "The European Central Bank will be the focus in the week ahead, eclipsing the Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of Canada policy decisions and America's ISM and payrolls releases. The risk of the ECB pursuing negative interest rates or expanding its balance sheet is set to keep the euro trading heavily into the Governing Council meeting. But the franc may incur more volatility in June if the Swiss National Bank matches any ECB decision to cut deposit rates below zero.…


Added by Francesc Riverola on June 2, 2014 at 9:30am — No Comments

Rabobank Global Daily 29/5 - Government bonds in focus

"The rally in Govvies was helped by comments from ECB officials as  Constancio voiced his “hope that investors are sufficiently hedged” this saw any remaining doubts evaporate as to whether or not the ECB will actually announce further easing measures on June 5th . Mersch noted that the ECB is comfortable using both conventional and unconventional policy measures and that it is ready to act next week. Mersch also noted that the interest rate corridor will be maintained which would mean that…


Added by Daologic on May 29, 2014 at 8:00am — No Comments


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