Going by the comments and rumors from the news media, it seems clear that the markets are positioned on the short side of Euro. If yesterday evening's Bloomberg news leak is anything to go by, we could expect QE no doubt, but things could be tweaked a bit here and there. After all, you can't please everyone.
The weekly EURUSD chart shows some interesting insights. A major triangle at the top in this longer term view of charts. I have a particular fascination for Wolfe Waves and if I…Continue
Added by John B on January 22, 2015 at 8:21am — No Comments
With blips of volatility last week, the markets seem to be more promising for coming weeks in terms of longer term moves. The fundamental decision by ECB to go negative with deposit interest rates is likely to send EUR much lower from where we are at the moment. As far as the setups from the last week, trend continuation long play on CAC40 got filled @4497's level and stopped me out almost immediately for -24 pips, however 4 hours candle closed @4497…Continue
Added by FuturesMO on June 9, 2014 at 1:41pm — No Comments
UBS - "The European Central Bank will be the focus in the week ahead, eclipsing the Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of Canada policy decisions and America's ISM and payrolls releases. The risk of the ECB pursuing negative interest rates or expanding its balance sheet is set to keep the euro trading heavily into the Governing Council meeting. But the franc may incur more volatility in June if the Swiss National Bank matches any ECB decision to cut deposit rates below zero.…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 2, 2014 at 9:30am — No Comments
UBS - "In the week ahead, US April core PCE inflation will show whether the Federal Reserve needs to consider earlier tightening. In contrast, Japan's national CPI release will test the Bank of Japan's resolve to keep its current pace of quantitative easing unchanged and Eurozone M3 money supply is likely to show credit growth remaining too subdued to revive inflation quickly in the Eurozone. The dollar is set to keep gaining as the Federal Reserve tapers its balance sheet expansion while…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 26, 2014 at 9:17am — No Comments
EUR/USD setup posted last week got completed and is still valid at the moment. Having said that, the traders with shorter stops may have been taken out at this point as selling continued last week before seeing signs of reversal @1.367's level. Commitment Of Traders report revealed shift for EUR since a long time, net short positions outweighed long for non-commercials (hedge…Continue
Added by FuturesMO on May 19, 2014 at 2:00pm — No Comments
UBS - "Financial markets are giving out inconsistent signals. A firmer yen, stronger Treasuries and bunds, weaker Eurozone peripheral bonds and lower stocks point to increased risk aversion. But the Swiss franc is weakening while commodity currencies are stable. The major currencies are more likely still to be driven by shifts in monetary policy. The Federal Reserve is set to keep tapering, helping the dollar recover from this year's lows. The likelihood of European Central Bank easing next…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 19, 2014 at 10:08am — No Comments
“We often focus on what we want. Statistics in our trading patterns don’t lie, they tell us what we need to see”.Brett Steenbarger, trading coach and author.
May 8th 2014. Good morning. Be on alert today as we have two…Continue
Added by Gary on May 8, 2014 at 9:24am — No Comments
UBS - "The dollar continues to trade at weak levels against the euro, pound and Swiss franc as the Federal Reserve is still printing money and buying bonds. In the week ahead the Federal Open Market Committee is likely to taper its asset purchases by another $10bn to $45bn a month. We expect the greenback to rise across the board as the end of quantitative easing comes into sight by the autumn. But this month's FOMC decision may only provide marginal support to the dollar as the Fed will…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 28, 2014 at 9:19am — No Comments
Mario Draghi, Shinzo Abe, Haruhiko Kuroda, Mark Carney and Ben Bernanke* are what I call the Backstreet Boys of the Financial Markets. *Janet Yellen is new and she did nothing ‘till now to deserve a place in this music band.
In the last 2 years, the ECB enjoyed the cheapest monetary policy, thanks to Mario Draghi’s magic words “whatever it takes”. While FED, BoE or BoJ had to print money to “save” their economies, investors bought Europe based on the safety…Continue
Added by Arenoosh on April 24, 2014 at 8:11pm — No Comments
Added by FuturesMO on April 14, 2014 at 3:07pm — No Comments
UBS - "In the week ahead, Fed Chair Yellen makes two public appearances while US retail sales, CPI inflation, industrial production and the New York and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing surveys are released. The greenback has been held back in Q1'14 by weather-affected data. But the US economy is likely to record stronger prints in Q2'14 as the latest weekly jobless claims numbers show. That will increase the risk of the dollar recovering from its current weak levels. This week's key points…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 14, 2014 at 10:58am — No Comments
While most of us were enjoying the weekend, Mario Draghi – the ECB president – hold a press conference in Washington DC. The key of his statement was that a further strengthening of the euro exchange rate would require more loosening in the European Central Bank's monetary policy to keep the overall policy stance as accommodative as it is now. This is the reason for the today’s eur/usd gap.
As usual, he gave no numbers, no thresholds to guide us to understand how much is too much. "I…Continue
Added by Arenoosh on April 14, 2014 at 6:16am — No Comments
UBS - "The foreign exchange markets reacted to America's March employment report by favouring higher-yielding emerging markets and commodity currencies. But US data is unlikely to remain 'not too hot' to spur fears of Federal Reserve tightening and 'not too cold' to raise concerns about the recovery. Instead Friday's payrolls report clearly showed America's economy emerging from the winter slowdown. The Fed is thus on track to finish tapering its bond purchases by the autumn, raising the…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 8, 2014 at 10:37am — No Comments
For more than one month, I build a strong case for shorting the euro, bringing many fundamentals to support my idea, as also some technical patterns who were suggesting that it “might work”. I, as many other traders, were waiting for Mr Draghi to pull the trigger during his press conference, yesterday. However, something really strange happened yesterday morning, six hours before the ECB press conference: the euro-bund dropped from 144.67 till 142.45. How is it possible to sell so…Continue
Added by Arenoosh on March 7, 2014 at 12:23pm — No Comments
UBS - "In the next three months the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Banks of Japan and England will all publish new economic projections. The upcoming forecast rounds will be important for currencies as they have the potential to shift the course of monetary policy across the major economies.
(...) This week's key points for currencies are:
- stronger data challenging Fed's forecasts
- ECB to keep explicit easing bias in the week ahead
- Japanese CPI…
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 3, 2014 at 11:46am — No Comments
UBS - "The Federal Reserve meets in the week ahead. The FOMC could surprise by agreeing to taper asset purchases, by revising its forecasts higher as America's fiscal outlook improves, by lengthening its forward guidance to signal interest rates will remain on hold for longer or by cutting the interest the Fed pays on excess reserves held at the central bank. The range of possible outcomes presents upside and downside risks to the dollar in the near term. In the longer-term the strengthening…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on December 16, 2013 at 2:43pm — No Comments
Goldman Sachs - "We expect continued low and possibly falling FX volatility in the early part of 2014. Later in the year, evidence of improving growth could increase the market focus on the approaching end to ultra-low interest rates in some key economies. Volatility will likely pick up again and clearer directional FX opportunities materialise. The timing of these more directional moves is uncertain and it is quite possible that they will not materialise until 2015. Much will depend on the…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on November 25, 2013 at 11:28am — No Comments
"Hey Mr DJ put a record on I wanna dance with my baby
And when the music starts
I never wanna stop, it's gonna drive me crazy"
Madonna - "Music"
You are maybe wondering what…Continue
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "So taking the fact that the euro rise is not yet at a level to materially change the inflation outlook, and that the fall in crude oil prices is unlikely to alter the outlook much either and given the better outlook in Germany and the Bundesbank concerns over speculative bubbles emerging in its property market, we doubt the ECB will act any time soon. We have been calling for a rate cut in Q4 for some time, but this is now very unlikely. It will probably take…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on October 24, 2013 at 5:44pm — No Comments
EUR/USD shot as high as $1.3608 following Mario Draghi's ECB rate decision press conference. Draghi did three things that helped boost EUR in my view:
1.) Although he said the ECB is willing to act with another LTRO, and rates will remain the same or lower, he stopped short of actually announcing a new LTRO program or other measures to increase the liquidity of euros.
2.) Draghi expressed less pessimism toward the EZ economic outlook.
3.) He didn't jawbone EUR lower. He…Continue
Added by Brent Carlile on October 2, 2013 at 3:49pm — No Comments