Brown Brothers and Harriman - "The dramatic sell-off of the Australian dollar is the latest of a series of price developments that have surprised the market. (...) The Australian dollar was the market's darling. It was an accessible even if not perfect way to get exposure to China and its vociferous demand for commodities. It was one of the few triple-A rated countries left standing after the financial crisis. Its interest rates were relatively higher in an environment in which there was a…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 16, 2013 at 1:55pm — No Comments
Rabobank - "We have been arguing over the past month that while the yen should remain on a weakening trend that the upside potential of USD/JPY would be slowed if the market was paring back the size of its USD positions. This view seems to have been upheld in April though yesterday’s break of the psychologically important USD/JPY100 levels has injected fresh life into the currency pair. Over the coming weeks we continue to expect that the tone of the USD will be key in determining the pace…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 10, 2013 at 2:55pm — No Comments
UBS - "The overnight break above the psychological 100 level is likely to pave the way for further upside too. The break was accompanied by broad-based dollar strength which chimes with our more general stronger dollar view for 2013.
With events unfolding in favour of further yen weakness, we take this opportunity to raise our 1m and 3m USDJPY forecasts to 102 and 105 respectively (previously both stood at 95.00). Our end-2013 forecast remains at 110.
(...) The dollar has chalked up…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 10, 2013 at 7:08am — No Comments
Brown Brothers Harriman -
"- Sweden's Riksbank kept rates steady at 1.0%, as expected
- Bank of England minutes from the April meeting show that the vote for extending QE remained the same as the March meeting
- Bank of Canada holds its policy meeting today and is expected to keep rates steady at 1.0%
- The Fed releases the Beige book report for the upcoming April 30/May 1 meeting
- There is keen interest in how Japanese investors are going to respond to…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 17, 2013 at 2:17pm — No Comments
It has been a while since gold has lost over $50.00 in a week. But it has this week.
The outlook is deteriorating, as the market heads to the base of its range for the past twenty months at 1522. Not far below here, the major foundation for the bull run since 2002, comes in at 1491. This level is pivotal, it marks the 110 week moving average. A safety rope that…Continue
There is a big bear sitting on the euro. Is it Russia!
No it’s everyone who is fed up of being told fairy stories about stability, unity, co-operation and solutions by European politicians, the ECB and the IMF.
Resolution by policy ineptitude can only bore the market into a…Continue
UBS - "This year the dollar is leading the other major currencies. But on a broad trade-weighted basis, including emerging market and commodity currencies, the greenback remains close to its all-time lows.
Dollar bulls - looking for a multi-year greenback rally like those of 1978-1985 and 1995-2002 - are anticipating the Federal Reserve will start scaling back its quantitative easing this year. That appears the most likely trigger for a broader dollar recovery in 2013.
But for a big…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 22, 2013 at 8:42am — No Comments
Goldman Sachs - "FX markets remain dominated by offsetting policy forces, which we described as a non-cooperative Global Exchange rate Mechanism (...) Within such a regime, much of the market focus has to be on the risk of ‘realignments’, or policy shifts, which have the potential to move a currency to a new level. Such a shift has happened in the Yen already. Our view is that the risks from current levels are broadly balanced, and this is reflected in our new forecasts, centred around $/JPY…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 18, 2013 at 10:25am — No Comments
UBS - "This week's key points for currencies are:
- upcoming FOMC forecast round key for dollar strength
- ECB inaction to support euro on the crosses
- the new BoJ won't disppoint USDJPY bulls
- MPC waits for Budget BoE review, stay short Cable
- SNB to stay on hold in the week ahead, watch USDCHF
- Norges Bank also to remain unchanged next week
- Australian jobs, RBNZ meeting should temper AUDNZD rally"
Mansoor Mohi-uddin, Managing Director &…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 9, 2013 at 10:53am — No Comments
ING Bank - "February has presented an unambiguously good US nonfarm payrolls report, with both the non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate pushing in very encouraging directions. Non-farm payrolls rose 236K, up from 119K, which was part of a 15K net downward revision to the previous month’s data.
(...) The near term market reaction will be to sell the back end of the yield curve, and for equities and the dollar to rally (especially against the JPY and GBP). With the Fed committed to…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 8, 2013 at 2:13pm — No Comments
I ran across this today and thought it was interesting. The World Bank is forecasting a softening in both gold and oil prices over the next ten years. If gold does decline it "might" mean a stronger dollar. The negative correlation between the two doesn't always hold true but it's something to consider when looking at the bigger picture.
So what might drive gold lower? The first guess would be inflation and an increase in interest rates. Rates here in the US have been low for a…Continue
UBS - "The pound, like the yen recently, is undergoing a sharp devaluation against the other major currencies. Late on Friday, Moody's stripped the UK of its AAA rating citing continued weakness in Britain's medium term growth outlook. We remain bearish sterling and expect Cable to trade in a lower 1.40-1.50 range over the next couple of months.
Financial markets are set for a challenging week. (...) This week's key points for currencies are:
- Bernanke to be dovish but Fed hawks…
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 24, 2013 at 9:22am — No Comments
UBS - "Sterling is likely to be the next major currency that depreciates strongly. This follows the plunge of the yen over the last few months. As central banks tolerate higher levels of inflation, the pound is set to weaken further across the board particularly against our favourite G4 currency, the US dollar. This week's key points are:
- watch FOMC minutes for signs of Fed easing fatigue
- Italian elections key for euro in the week ahead
- forget G20, Abe's BoJ choice to…
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 16, 2013 at 12:03pm — No Comments
Srry something went wrong with voice Trying to fix it
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Added by Greenwhale on January 18, 2013 at 11:17am — No Comments
Recommendation: SHORT positions below 80.75 with 79.00 & 78.40 as next targets.
Alternative scenario: The upside breakout of 80.75 will call for a rebound to 81.75/82.25.
Comment:Bearish momentum breakout has been completed on the daily chart at 79.70, more losses are suggested to 79.00/ 78.40 levels as long as the pair trades below 80.75 -10 Jan 2013 high, only a daily close above this…
Added by Haitham653 on January 17, 2013 at 4:24am — No Comments
The Euro is deemed to sustain its strength against the US dollar today as cautious comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke over the US economy suggested that the central bank was in no hurry to withdraw monetary stimulus. In Europe, ratings agency Standard & Poor’s raised its outlook on both Luxembourg and Finland in another sign that the Euro Zone has made considerably ground in its crisis fight, boosting the single currency in turn.
Speaking at the University of…
UBS - "This week's key points for currencies are:
- dollar bears note FOMC has hawks as well as doves
- euro supported for now on global risk sentiment
- USDJPY still a buy on dips into January's BoJ meeting
- UK CPI, retail sales key in the week ahead for sterling
- EURCHF plays catch up at last with euro crosses
- expect NOKSEK to be bid as Swedish data stays mixed
- watch Australia's employment data in the week ahead"
Mansoor Mohi-uddin, Managing…
$USDX $EURUSD $USDJPY Is it start of deeper decline for USD ?
$USDX(DXY) is loosing ground at the mom of writing ,erasing support @ 80,47, confirming thus lower top<80,90 .S/t outlook (60 min) turns bearish(Hourly close <80,42 confirms reversal .) for a test of key support @ 80,25 (4hr bullish marker) If tech strategies may be applied today (2 Cenbanks deciding on rates ) We'd sell on upticks…Continue
Added by Greenwhale on January 10, 2013 at 10:26am — No Comments
UBS - "This week's key points are:
- Fed doves unlikely to weaken the dollar now
- ECB meeting key for euro in the week ahead
- BoJ to agree higher inflation target this month
- MPC meeting unlikely to provide direction to sterling
- upcoming Swiss CPI data focus for franc
- follow Riksbank minutes in the week ahead"
Mansoor Mohi-uddin, Managing Director and Head of Foreign Exchange Strategy at UBS Macro Research
Added by Francesc Riverola on January 7, 2013 at 2:16pm — No Comments
David Solin, Partner at FXA - "EURUSD Nearer-Term Strategy/position: With another few weeks of upward "pressure" still favored, prefer to be trading from the long side. However, with the magnitude of the upside a question and the market trading near longer term resistance at the ceiling of the bearish channel from May 2011, not seen as a good risk/reward in just chasing the market higher from here. So instead for now, would buy a pullback toward 1.3035/50 (lower entry, lower risk),…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on December 18, 2012 at 5:43pm — No Comments