Demand that has dominated the last 4 weeks continued yesterday. A new 4 year high was posted with prices maintained levels beyond the upper end of a rising Keltner channel. This emphasises the underlying trend but also the overbought situation that was modestly addressed by the failure to maintain the peaks. It is that latter element that leaves intraday mildly, temporarily, negative going into today with scope for a deeper correction before the US NFP data with potential to 1.0150 or even…Continue
Against a background of bullish signals for sentiment for this week, the week began with demand in Asia. Those highs, despite being retested in European price action, were not maintained although prices continue to track the upper end of a rising Keltner channel. This price action leaves intraday signals for sentiment mildly negative with potential to 1.1707 and 1.1693.…Continue
There was limited net movement yesterday in USDCHF with both initial highs and subsequent lows rejected. But the failure to rally through the key 13 day moving average coupled with last week's Bearish Engulfing pattern keeps sentiment negative with potential to .9618 and .9595.…Continue
With signals cautious near the 200 day average rate, Monday’s trading saw sentiment improve by just over ½ Big Fig on the day. The buying has also come from close to the lows posted in June, Sep & Oct, but so far it hasn’t offered a bullish reversal pattern, or has it ended a sequence of lower daily highs. With this in mind, the outlook for Tuesday is just cautiously and temporarily bullish with potential through 1.5105 to 1.5150.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on November 18, 2014 at 7:27am — No Comments
For a 3rd day in a row selling interest stalled at the key 13 day moving average. That point is acting as a platform but without yet translating into significant demand – only minor net gains resulting yesterday. This means that intraday signals for sentiment cannot be strong but with momentum and strength indicators (RSI) also mildly positive we look for buying interest to build with potential to .9701 and .9726.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on November 13, 2014 at 7:00am — No Comments
An initial move to 7 month highs proved temporary. Profit taking was attracted above .9100 and the resulting pullback left prices virtually unchanged on the week – the 2nd such week in a row. It is the upside rejection though that has given technical signals a negative tone, although the stalling on Friday at the 13 day moving average is a concern. So potential exists for a profit taking setback to .8971/91 or even .8916.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on August 11, 2014 at 6:35am — No Comments
The significant of the Marabuzo line formed July 3rd was emphasised yesterday. Confirming our weekly call, that point was rejected for a 5th day in a row. This time this led to aggressive buying of USDCHF and a close above the 200 day moving average. Continued in Asia, modestly, intraday signals for sentiment are overbought and there is growing potential for profit taking but with the underlying tone assessed as positive with potential to .8998 and…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on July 16, 2014 at 6:15am — No Comments
A 2nd down week in succession was posted last week but the real story was the weakness of rally attempts. The topside was easily capped by the 13/200 day moving average with the week finishing with increased selling pressure that took USDCHF to the most negative levels traded for 6 weeks.
In addition, strength indicators (RSI) are negative and so we look for this gradual deterioration to deepen in the coming days with potential to .8862, .8825 or even .8776.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on June 30, 2014 at 6:56am — No Comments
Initial trading yesterday saw the demand from this month’s low continued. This latest upside took USDCHF through the top of the rising Keltner channel and to the most positive levels traded for 13 weeks. However, these gains were aggressively reversed, correcting overbought extremes, and bringing prices back to the 100 day avg and the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud. The failure to break through that area is a concern but the upside rejection dominates the background and so there is…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on May 16, 2014 at 6:33am — No Comments
The relevance of the Marabuzo line created 4 weeks ago was proved as, for a 3rd week running rally attempts stalled around that point. The result was a 2nd down week in succession and a rejection of the daily Ichimoku Cloud.
With the 13 day moving average now capping and the daily Keltner channel now trending negatively we look for this selling pressure to deepen with potential this week to .8699 or even .8628.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on May 5, 2014 at 6:28am — No Comments
Mirrored price action in EURUSD yesterday although gains in this currency pair are more pronounced due to a weaker CHF. Using the 13 day moving average as a platform, minor gains took prices into the daily Ichimoku Cloud. This price action does not provide strong intraday signals but they are mildly positive with potential for .8880 and .8912.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on April 22, 2014 at 7:00am — No Comments
A sequence of 3 up weeks ended with strong selling last week - emphasising the importance of a 50% correction point. There are 3 main reasons we look for the downside to extend.
1) Prices are 'hugging the lower end of a negative Keltner channel. 2) The key 13 day moving average is capping rallies.
3) CHF showing broad strength.
Potential for .8712 and .8676.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on April 14, 2014 at 5:59am — No Comments
A sequence of 3 down days ended Mon as profit taking developed at the bottom of the Keltner channel. Gains were limited, after a negative gap on the open, and unable to regain any significant portion of Fri’s decline. This, despite minor gains in Asia, reflects the weakness of demand and while early gains are probable we look for them to be limited. So scope through .8761 to .8739 or even .8712.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on March 11, 2014 at 7:13am — No Comments
Unable to extend Tuesday's setback from 9 week highs, renewed demand was seen yesterday. While the net upside was limited prices are supported by the Ichimoku Cloud and the 13 day moving average.
In addition the 'golden' cross of the 13 & 100 day averages confirms a trending market with potential for the upside to retest this week's .9156 top and even towards .9192 in the coming days.…
Added by Alan Collins on January 23, 2014 at 6:59am — No Comments
The importance of Friday’s stalling at the 13 day moving average was proved by fresh demand yesterday. This upside itself faltered at the 200 day line and so prices are currently trapped between those key indicators. This type of price action does not provide strong signals but with the support of the 13 day line in the background, intraday sentiment is assessed as positive with potential to .9014 or even towards .9050.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on January 21, 2014 at 7:00am — No Comments
Against a back of bullish sentiment for this week, continued demand took USDCHF through the 100 day moving average – the 1st time since Sep. A 4th up day from the last 5 days means that the currency pair is trading at the highest levels for 6 weeks. Of course, the speed of gains leaves sentiment overbought but with profit taking remaining limited and CHF weakness in the background,further upside is assessed as likely with potential targets at .9136, .9165 and…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on January 9, 2014 at 7:25am — No Comments
Added by ZeusFXTrader on December 31, 2013 at 7:08am — No Comments
A 4th negative weekly performance in a row was posted last week. Signals for sentiment are overstretched but there are 3 main reasons why we still favour the downside;
In addition EURCHF is traded at 2 month lows with last week's decline the most negative since February.
Added by Alan Collins on December 9, 2013 at 7:21am — No Comments
The selling at a 62% correction point has proved significant with the reaction to that point extending into a 2nd negative week in a row. A mid-week rally proved temporary with sellers emerging inside the daily Ichimoku Cloud and although a key Marabuzo line created 4 weeks ago has yet to be tested, negative strength indicators mean that we look for the downside to continue.
Potential targets include .9014 and .8951.…
Added by Alan Collins on November 25, 2013 at 8:23am — No Comments
Selling pressure remained a dominant background feature Tue. Minor losses were posted for a 3rd day in a row and a close below the 13 day m.a for the 1st time in Nov. Selling has deepened overnight and although the scope of the moves remains muted, with a Keltner channel increasingly negative and bounces limited the intraday tone is mildly negative.
Scope to .9066 and below that a key Marabuzo line from 3 weeks ago, .9014, comes into focus.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on November 20, 2013 at 7:03am — No Comments