A 4th negative weekly performance in a row was posted last week. Signals for sentiment are overstretched but there are 3 main reasons why we still favour the downside;
In addition EURCHF is traded at 2 month lows with last week's decline the most negative since February.
Added by Alan Collins on December 9, 2013 at 7:21am — No Comments
The selling at a 62% correction point has proved significant with the reaction to that point extending into a 2nd negative week in a row. A mid-week rally proved temporary with sellers emerging inside the daily Ichimoku Cloud and although a key Marabuzo line created 4 weeks ago has yet to be tested, negative strength indicators mean that we look for the downside to continue.
Potential targets include .9014 and .8951.…
Added by Alan Collins on November 25, 2013 at 8:23am — No Comments
Selling pressure remained a dominant background feature Tue. Minor losses were posted for a 3rd day in a row and a close below the 13 day m.a for the 1st time in Nov. Selling has deepened overnight and although the scope of the moves remains muted, with a Keltner channel increasingly negative and bounces limited the intraday tone is mildly negative.
Scope to .9066 and below that a key Marabuzo line from 3 weeks ago, .9014, comes into focus.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on November 20, 2013 at 7:03am — No Comments
The pair recovered much of this week and is held by the resistance at 1.3501. A
breach of this level would open the way to 1.3627. Support is at 1.3397 ahead of
USDJPY BULLISH Resistance is at 100.61, a break above which would open 101.53. Support is at
98.71 ahead of 97.62.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.6118, a break above which would open the critical 1.6260.
Support is at 1.5855 ahead of 1.5708.
USDCHF NEUTRAL The pair has been…
Added by Daologic on November 14, 2013 at 7:44am — No Comments
USDCHF[6H] broke out of the daily downward TL channel early…Continue
Added by fx-Syndicate on November 8, 2013 at 1:09pm — No Comments
The market failed to extend Tuesday’s rejection of 20-month lows. Instead selling pressure was renewed but although a 3rd negative performance from the last 4 days resulted, net losses were modest and the week’s lows went untested. This means signals are not strong going into today but with the Keltner channel trending bearishly, limited rallies and renewed selling in Asia the focus remains on the downside with a move through .8993 confirming a exposing .8972 then towards the 2012…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on October 3, 2013 at 6:40am — No Comments
We are currently watching EUR/CHF from the pure technical perspective. The 6H Chart suggests there are multiple…Continue
Added by fx-Syndicate on September 27, 2013 at 3:50pm — No Comments
Although net downside yesterday was not extensive, the move to new 7 month lows was enough to signal an end to 4 days of trendless trading. USDCHF continues to hug the Keltner channel base with rallies capped well below the 13 day m.a and so although oversold extremes are a concern we're looking to downside levels .9079, .9042 or even .9022 - the latter in the coming days.…Continue
UBS - "We have been net sellers of Swiss francs for five weeks in a row now – a pattern we have not seen since shortly after the SNB installed the EURCHF floor. This is further evidence that an upside bias in EURCHF is starting to emerge. Despite the recent CHF selling, legacy long Swiss franc positions remain very substantial."
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 22, 2013 at 11:49pm — No Comments
Brown Brothers Harriman - "Last week, we warned that although the technical factors looked constructive for the dollar, the fundamentals, in the form of the ECB not delivering on the negative deposit rate (that Draghi said he had an open mind about) and additional aid for small and medium size businesses, were less supportive. We also anticipated that the jobs data would not support notions from some Fed officials (and market participants) that tapering of the purchases of long-term assets…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 10, 2013 at 8:57am — No Comments
Good afternoon forex,
Nice to see all seven currencies meet or exceed my expectations today as per my trading plan. Support and resistance lines tracked according to my specs and volatility was equally matched. After reviewing today's price action here's my technical blueprint.
USDCAD: Closed at 1.0239. Resistance now at or near 1.0295. Minor support at or near 1.0218 followed by stronger support at or near 1.0150. BIAS: Mildly bearish. Catalysts: CAD…Continue
Added by The Zedder on May 20, 2013 at 10:30pm — No Comments
Bank of America Merrill Lynch - "We expect the Euro outlook in the next few months to be determined by ECB policies and market expectations for their direction compared with FED policies. In turn, we believe that the impact of ECB policies on the Euro will be determined by the balance between monetary policy loosening to address weakness in the core
Eurozone economies and deflation risks on the one hand, and policies to address the continued credit crunch in the periphery on the other.…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 20, 2013 at 11:11am — No Comments
UBS - "This week's key points for currencies are:
- several US data releases due but claims still key
- ECB to develop an exchange rate policy?
- G7 doesn't criticise Japan, USDJPY a buy on dips
- BoE Inflation Report key in the week ahead
- Swiss deflation, rising stocks to weaken franc
- buy DNTs as Norges Bank keeps krone rangebound
- expect more RBA easing now, stay bearish AUDNZD"
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 13, 2013 at 10:23am — No Comments
UBS - "The Swiss franc has been a clear beneficiary of events in Cyprus. Domestic clients in Switzerland have steadfastly refused to buy EURCHF even though the cross has traded in a more volatile manner this year above the Swiss National Bank's minimum 1.20 target floor. That view has been based on the Eurozone crisis presenting too much risk for holding long EURCHF positions. This month's events in Cyrpus will only reinforce such convictions amongst Swiss clients.
As a result EURCHF is…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 26, 2013 at 6:18pm — No Comments
Societé Generale - "Markets continued to consolidate while reallocation trades helped risky assets to outperform and the USD to come under some pressure. Fears regarding the UK are steadily rising reinforcing a bearish tendency in the pair. We remain short GBP, CHF, JPY and AUD. AUD will continue to hurt and it is a better strategy to sell it on rally.
(...) All in all, the market will use any bearish excuse to sell the JPY as confirmed by our internal flow. (...) We prudently buy…
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 20, 2013 at 8:42am — No Comments
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 18, 2013 at 10:18am — No Comments
Fidelity Worldwide Investment - “The G7 ministers put out a statement today arguing against unilateral FX intervention and explicit exchange rate targets. On one level, this is a slap on the wrist to Japanese ministers talking about specific levels but it allows them to carry on with policies aimed at creating domestic inflation. You could argue the clear FX manipulators out there are the Swiss with the SNB’s Jordan saying today that the…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 12, 2013 at 12:33pm — No Comments
The importance of the selling interest at a 62% recovery point proved correct last week as a powerful decline developed that took USDCHF to the most negative levels traded for 10-months.
This decline was dominated by CHF strength in the middle of the week and the lows were rejected Friday by profit taking. However while we expect volatility due to CHF movements to continue, the underlying tone is assessed as negative – as reflected by momentum.
So while we would allow room to…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on February 4, 2013 at 7:31am — No Comments
UBS - "GBPUSD BEARISH Downward bias remains with the focus on 1.5694, ahead of 1.5394. The pair will find resistance at 1.5892.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Yesterday's session saw the pair test key support at 0.9197, a break below this would expose 0.9111. Resistance is at 0.9389.
USDCAD BULLISH Yesterday the pair broke below the support at 1.0021, ahead of 0.9904. But as the MACD stay above the zero line any losses are limited, with the significant resistance at 1.0136."
Added by Francesc Riverola on January 30, 2013 at 9:43am — No Comments
Societe Generale - "EUR/CHF continued its move higher and is in the process of taking out the layer of strikes between 1.24 and 1.25 and this it seems without even any large scale reallocation of capital out of CHF. Hence, the probability is that the process will accelerate as safe haven bids leave the CHF (bank deposits). Our range of model is skewed by the fact that the EUR/CHF was floored for such as long time but gives a range of value between 1.19 add 1.36 with an average of 1.25. The…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on January 17, 2013 at 12:58pm — No Comments