Added by Daologic on March 11, 2014 at 8:28am — No Comments
A sequence of 3 down days ended Mon as profit taking developed at the bottom of the Keltner channel. Gains were limited, after a negative gap on the open, and unable to regain any significant portion of Fri’s decline. This, despite minor gains in Asia, reflects the weakness of demand and while early gains are probable we look for them to be limited. So scope through .8761 to .8739 or even .8712.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on March 11, 2014 at 7:13am — No Comments
"Better Dollar Tone Coming
The euro and Swiss franc rose to new highs since Q4 2011, while sterling moved to within half a cent of the best level since 2009 set in mid-February, in recent days. The market was all rife with speculation of a…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 10, 2014 at 6:30am — No Comments
"CTA and speculative accounts showed some sharp position adjustments in this week’s CFTC data. The aggregate long USD position was trimmed quite sharply to a total of USD17.7bn after four weeks of steady accumulation. …Continue
Added by Daologic on February 1, 2014 at 8:21am — No Comments
"USD and JPY finding support
The volatility in EM currencies may have calmed a little but there is still plenty of reason for…Continue
Added by Daologic on January 31, 2014 at 10:45am — No Comments
Unable to extend Tuesday's setback from 9 week highs, renewed demand was seen yesterday. While the net upside was limited prices are supported by the Ichimoku Cloud and the 13 day moving average.
In addition the 'golden' cross of the 13 & 100 day averages confirms a trending market with potential for the upside to retest this week's .9156 top and even towards .9192 in the coming days.…
Added by Alan Collins on January 23, 2014 at 6:59am — No Comments
"Net implied USD long positions increased modestly over the previous week, with speculative longs now above 35% of open interest. The most significant change observed over the week was in CHF whose speculative position turned net short for the first time in five months from 11% of open interest to -7%. The TFF report showed that leverage funds pared their long positions, while…Continue
Added by Daologic on January 20, 2014 at 10:51am — No Comments
"EUR/CHF daily – The big picture remains negative unless 1.2466 and 1.2536/71 would be taken out.
Following the failure to clear the decisive T-junction at 1.2650 (int. 38.2 %) in May last year the big picture of EUR/CHF remains negative and the downside wide open for a broader wave 2 setback (projected target at 1.0677 =int. 76.4 %) if not for a re-test of the 2011 low in case the 5th wave decline is still missing. Both scenarios however imply that the SNB will ultimately surrender…Continue
Added by Daologic on January 13, 2014 at 3:06pm — No Comments
Against a back of bullish sentiment for this week, continued demand took USDCHF through the 100 day moving average – the 1st time since Sep. A 4th up day from the last 5 days means that the currency pair is trading at the highest levels for 6 weeks. Of course, the speed of gains leaves sentiment overbought but with profit taking remaining limited and CHF weakness in the background,further upside is assessed as likely with potential targets at .9136, .9165 and…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on January 9, 2014 at 7:25am — No Comments
"EURUSD NEUTRAL With the momentum falling, our support focus is at 1.3524. A close below which would be a bearish development, opening the way to 1.3458. Resistance is at 1.3656.
USDJPY BULLISH The pair is resuming its strength bringing our focus on critical resistance at 105.75. A close above which would trigger further acceleration to 110.74. Support is at 103.91 ahead of 103.09.
GBPUSD BULLISH While support holds at 1.6317, there's scope for more upside. Resistance is at 1.6502…
Added by Daologic on January 9, 2014 at 7:25am — No Comments
According to Autochartist statistics the breakouts have a 75% succes rates.
The push above $1.38 in the euro was not confirmed by the RSI or MACD, leaving a bearish divergence in its wake. The euro was turned lower after testing the trend line drawn off the July '08 high near $1.6040 and the May '11 high near $1.4940 and just above $1.3900 at the end of the year. The 5-day moving average has slipped below the 20-day average. A…Continue
Added by Daologic on January 6, 2014 at 8:40am — No Comments
Added by ZeusFXTrader on December 31, 2013 at 7:08am — No Comments
2014 – the USD’s year?
A year ago the 12 mth market consensuses for the major dollar crosses were as follows: EUR/USD1.27,…Continue
Added by Daologic on December 23, 2013 at 10:00am — No Comments
A 4th negative weekly performance in a row was posted last week. Signals for sentiment are overstretched but there are 3 main reasons why we still favour the downside;
In addition EURCHF is traded at 2 month lows with last week's decline the most negative since February.
Added by Alan Collins on December 9, 2013 at 7:21am — No Comments
The selling at a 62% correction point has proved significant with the reaction to that point extending into a 2nd negative week in a row. A mid-week rally proved temporary with sellers emerging inside the daily Ichimoku Cloud and although a key Marabuzo line created 4 weeks ago has yet to be tested, negative strength indicators mean that we look for the downside to continue.
Potential targets include .9014 and .8951.…
Added by Alan Collins on November 25, 2013 at 8:23am — No Comments
Selling pressure remained a dominant background feature Tue. Minor losses were posted for a 3rd day in a row and a close below the 13 day m.a for the 1st time in Nov. Selling has deepened overnight and although the scope of the moves remains muted, with a Keltner channel increasingly negative and bounces limited the intraday tone is mildly negative.
Scope to .9066 and below that a key Marabuzo line from 3 weeks ago, .9014, comes into focus.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on November 20, 2013 at 7:03am — No Comments
The pair recovered much of this week and is held by the resistance at 1.3501. A
breach of this level would open the way to 1.3627. Support is at 1.3397 ahead of
USDJPY BULLISH Resistance is at 100.61, a break above which would open 101.53. Support is at
98.71 ahead of 97.62.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.6118, a break above which would open the critical 1.6260.
Support is at 1.5855 ahead of 1.5708.
USDCHF NEUTRAL The pair has been…
Added by Daologic on November 14, 2013 at 7:44am — No Comments
USDCHF[6H] broke out of the daily downward TL channel early…Continue
Added by fx-Syndicate on November 8, 2013 at 1:09pm — No Comments
The market failed to extend Tuesday’s rejection of 20-month lows. Instead selling pressure was renewed but although a 3rd negative performance from the last 4 days resulted, net losses were modest and the week’s lows went untested. This means signals are not strong going into today but with the Keltner channel trending bearishly, limited rallies and renewed selling in Asia the focus remains on the downside with a move through .8993 confirming a exposing .8972 then towards the 2012…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on October 3, 2013 at 6:40am — No Comments