All Blog Posts Tagged 'CHF' (84)

USDCHF - Key Marabuzo line platforms gains -.9015 targeted

The significant of the Marabuzo line formed July 3rd was emphasised yesterday. Confirming our weekly call, that point was rejected for a 5th day in a row. This time this led to aggressive buying of USDCHF and a close above the 200 day moving average. Continued in Asia, modestly, intraday signals for sentiment are overbought and there is growing potential for profit taking but with the underlying tone assessed as positive with potential to .8998 and…

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Added by Alan Collins on July 16, 2014 at 6:15am — No Comments

USDCHF - Capped by key Average - losses to deepen

A 2nd down week in succession was posted last week but the real story was the weakness of rally attempts. The topside was easily capped by the 13/200 day moving average with the week finishing with increased selling pressure that took USDCHF to the most negative levels traded for 6 weeks.

In addition, strength indicators (RSI) are negative and so we look for this gradual deterioration to deepen in the coming days with potential to .8862, .8825 or even .8776.…

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Added by Alan Collins on June 30, 2014 at 6:56am — No Comments

TD:CFTC Commitments of Traders Report - Week Ending Tuesday, June 17th

"Speculative positioning registered a few notable changes during the week ended on June 17th, according to the latest Commitments of Traders Report from the CFTC:

  • GBP also registered a large change in positioning; net longs on the currency were increased from +35.8k to +52.6k contracts during the intervening week, reflecting the repercussions from Governor Carney's Mansion House…
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Added by Daologic on June 23, 2014 at 4:11am — No Comments

Charting Trend Reversals

Hello!

First, take a look at the first 3 charts below:

Chart 1:

Chart 2:

Chart 3:…

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Added by Daologic on May 30, 2014 at 6:58am — 1 Comment

EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDCHF mid term strategy

EURUSD:

Build shorts at every 100 pips starting with 1.3660 for a target at 1.35-1.34-1.33.

GBPUSD:

Build shorts at every 100 pips starting with 1.6770 for 1.64 target.

USDCHF:

Build longs at every 100 pips starting with 0.89 for 0.91-0.92 target.

Estimated time 2-6 months.

Added by Daologic on May 30, 2014 at 6:21am — No Comments

USDCHF - Upside rejection to dominate - .8859 targeted

Initial trading yesterday saw the demand from this month’s low continued. This latest upside took USDCHF through the top of the rising Keltner channel and to the most positive levels traded for 13 weeks. However, these gains were aggressively reversed, correcting overbought extremes, and bringing prices back to the 100 day avg and the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud. The failure to break through that area is a concern but the upside rejection dominates the background and so there is…

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Added by Alan Collins on May 16, 2014 at 6:33am — No Comments

USDCHF - Weak rally turns focus to downside.

The relevance of the Marabuzo line created 4 weeks ago was proved as, for a 3rd week running rally attempts stalled around that point. The result was a 2nd down week in succession and a rejection of the daily Ichimoku Cloud.

With the 13 day moving average now capping and the daily Keltner channel now trending negatively we look for this selling pressure to deepen with potential this week to .8699 or even .8628.…

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Added by Alan Collins on May 5, 2014 at 6:28am — No Comments

RBS:NZD

"(...)

Reserve Bank of New Zealand will probably raise OCR for a second consecutive month later today, bringing the rate back to 3.0% for the first time since RBNZ cut 50bp in March 2011 in response to the Christchurch earthquake. NZD should be supported into/through that decision. Tactically, long NZD/CHF for this week. But Kiwi is one of the most expensive currencies in the world in REER terms and multi month is likely to be sold - heavily"

Added by Daologic on April 23, 2014 at 10:15am — 2 Comments

USDCHF - Key Average platforms gains towards .8912

Mirrored price action in EURUSD yesterday although gains in this currency pair are more pronounced due to a weaker CHF. Using the 13 day moving average as a platform, minor gains took prices into the daily Ichimoku Cloud. This price action does not provide strong intraday signals but they are mildly positive with potential for .8880 and .8912.…

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Added by Alan Collins on April 22, 2014 at 7:00am — No Comments

USDCHF - 3 reasons to short this week

A sequence of 3 up weeks ended with strong selling last week - emphasising the importance of a 50% correction point. There are 3 main reasons we look for the downside to extend.                

1) Prices are 'hugging the lower end of a negative Keltner channel.                                                         2) The key 13 day moving average is capping rallies.            

3) CHF showing broad strength.   

 

Potential for .8712 and .8676.…

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Added by Alan Collins on April 14, 2014 at 5:59am — No Comments

UBS FX Comment - Pain, Positioning and Policymakers

"The pain trade in the currency markets is the renewed weakness of the dollar against the euro, yen, Swiss franc and Australian dollar. Despite US jobless claims falling to its lowest levels since 2007, the greenback has been sold since March's Federal Open Market Committee minutes were published. In the very near term dollar longs may still be cut. But the market's position adjustment is also painful for policymakers outside the US seeking weaker domestic currencies against the greenback.…

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Added by Daologic on April 14, 2014 at 5:30am — No Comments

RBSM: Global Currency Themes for the Week | Still Accumulating USDs

"Trading Strategy | Continue to look for opportunities to accumulate dollars as the data challenge the Fed's push back on higher market interest rates. Add GBP/USD shorts to existing USD/CHF longs on evidence of widening imbalances and slowing UK growth. Stay short EUR/USD after last week's soft Euro area CPI report and dovish ECB. Add on a break of 1.3645. Square tactical long USD/SEK exposure ahead of this week's Riksbank meeting, but…

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Added by Daologic on April 7, 2014 at 12:30pm — No Comments

TD: FX CFTC Report

"Changes in IMM positioning in the major currencies were moderate in the week through April 1st, except for MXN, JPY, and AUD.  The former registered a significant increase in net long contracts, which led to a reversal from a net short position of –1.6k to a net long…

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Added by Daologic on April 7, 2014 at 6:29am — No Comments

BBH MarketView: Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Greenback Mixed for Start of Q2

"Euro:  The combination of the dovish comments from ECB officials, where even the Bundesbank appears to have warmed to the idea of QE, and the somewhat more hawkish FOMC, has prompted some profit-taking on long euro positions.  The euro peaked just shy of the $1.40 level on March 13.  While Draghi's comments helped put the euro's top in, it was Yellen's comments that exposed the…

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Added by Daologic on March 31, 2014 at 6:46am — No Comments

UBS FX Comment - Strong Dollar Time

"(...)

1. Strong payrolls would spark sharp dollar rally

In our view the dollar has reached a major turning point against the

euro. Since the summer of 2012 the single currency has traded from 1.20

to almost 1.40 as the Federal Reserve's third round of quantitative

easing led to its balance sheet expanding while at the same time the

ECB's contracted through banks repaying Longer-Term Refinancing

Operation loans. But the Fed's balance sheet expansion is now…

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Added by Daologic on March 31, 2014 at 6:39am — No Comments

TD: FX CFTC Report

"CFTC Commitments of Traders Report - Week Ending Tuesday, March 25th

 …

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Added by Daologic on March 31, 2014 at 6:25am — No Comments

UBS FX Comment - Fed Primes Dollar For Major Rally

"1. Strong US data now will lead to sharp dollar rallies

The dollar is primed for a major rally following this month's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The FOMC met expectations by cutting the Fed's pace of asset purchases by another $10bn to $55bn a month. But policymakers surprised on several other counts.

First, the FOMC dropped its forward guidance linking future interest rate hikes to specific levels of unemployment. The guidance had become increasingly irrelevant as…

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Added by Daologic on March 24, 2014 at 8:00am — No Comments

BMO FX Strategy Daily

"(...)

Strategy Comment

 During the London morning, it appeared as…

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Added by Daologic on March 20, 2014 at 11:36am — No Comments

UBS - FX Comment:FOMC forecasts key in the week ahead

"We forecast the dollar to strengthen to 1.25 against the euro by the end of 2014 as the Federal Reserve progressively slows down and ends its third round of quantitative easing. The Federal Open Market Committee meeting in the week ahead will prove another modest step in this direction for the greenback - even if sustained dollar strength against the euro, yen, pound and Swiss franc is still likely to only occur when the Fed is getting closer towards the end of its asset purchases in the…

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Added by Daologic on March 17, 2014 at 5:31pm — No Comments

TD: Morning FX Outlook-USDCAD: Range-Trade Continues—For Now

"FX Set-up: Too Much Event Risk Keeps Investors Sidelined…

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Added by Daologic on March 17, 2014 at 11:43am — No Comments

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