"Broad-based dollar strength to continue, subject to positioning adjustments.
We expect the dollar to continue outperforming within G10 heading into year-end. Policy differentials will consolidate in the dollar's favour and the latest round of data suggest that the balance of risks has shifted towards the Fed becoming more assertive. On top of the strong September payrolls report, our economists note that September ISM figures appeared 'consistent with 5% real GDP growth and 300k'…
Added by Daologic on October 7, 2014 at 5:33am — No Comments
"CFTC data for currency futures through the week ending August 26th showed that investors and speculative accounts continue to bet big on an…Continue
Added by Daologic on September 1, 2014 at 4:42am — No Comments
An initial move to 7 month highs proved temporary. Profit taking was attracted above .9100 and the resulting pullback left prices virtually unchanged on the week – the 2nd such week in a row. It is the upside rejection though that has given technical signals a negative tone, although the stalling on Friday at the 13 day moving average is a concern. So potential exists for a profit taking setback to .8971/91 or even .8916.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on August 11, 2014 at 6:35am — No Comments
I am old school guys. I like wood and not plastic, glass and not PTF, the vinyl spinning on a platter and not MP3, analog and not digital. I am old school.
EURUSD Old School Style:Continue
The significant of the Marabuzo line formed July 3rd was emphasised yesterday. Confirming our weekly call, that point was rejected for a 5th day in a row. This time this led to aggressive buying of USDCHF and a close above the 200 day moving average. Continued in Asia, modestly, intraday signals for sentiment are overbought and there is growing potential for profit taking but with the underlying tone assessed as positive with potential to .8998 and…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on July 16, 2014 at 6:15am — No Comments
A 2nd down week in succession was posted last week but the real story was the weakness of rally attempts. The topside was easily capped by the 13/200 day moving average with the week finishing with increased selling pressure that took USDCHF to the most negative levels traded for 6 weeks.
In addition, strength indicators (RSI) are negative and so we look for this gradual deterioration to deepen in the coming days with potential to .8862, .8825 or even .8776.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on June 30, 2014 at 6:56am — No Comments
"Speculative positioning registered a few notable changes during the week ended on June 17th, according to the latest Commitments of Traders Report from the CFTC:
Added by Daologic on June 23, 2014 at 4:11am — No Comments
First, take a look at the first 3 charts below:
Build shorts at every 100 pips starting with 1.3660 for a target at 1.35-1.34-1.33.
Build shorts at every 100 pips starting with 1.6770 for 1.64 target.
Build longs at every 100 pips starting with 0.89 for 0.91-0.92 target.
Estimated time 2-6 months.
Added by Daologic on May 30, 2014 at 6:21am — No Comments
Initial trading yesterday saw the demand from this month’s low continued. This latest upside took USDCHF through the top of the rising Keltner channel and to the most positive levels traded for 13 weeks. However, these gains were aggressively reversed, correcting overbought extremes, and bringing prices back to the 100 day avg and the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud. The failure to break through that area is a concern but the upside rejection dominates the background and so there is…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on May 16, 2014 at 6:33am — No Comments
The relevance of the Marabuzo line created 4 weeks ago was proved as, for a 3rd week running rally attempts stalled around that point. The result was a 2nd down week in succession and a rejection of the daily Ichimoku Cloud.
With the 13 day moving average now capping and the daily Keltner channel now trending negatively we look for this selling pressure to deepen with potential this week to .8699 or even .8628.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on May 5, 2014 at 6:28am — No Comments
Reserve Bank of New Zealand will probably raise OCR for a second consecutive month later today, bringing the rate back to 3.0% for the first time since RBNZ cut 50bp in March 2011 in response to the Christchurch earthquake. NZD should be supported into/through that decision. Tactically, long NZD/CHF for this week. But Kiwi is one of the most expensive currencies in the world in REER terms and multi month is likely to be sold - heavily"
Mirrored price action in EURUSD yesterday although gains in this currency pair are more pronounced due to a weaker CHF. Using the 13 day moving average as a platform, minor gains took prices into the daily Ichimoku Cloud. This price action does not provide strong intraday signals but they are mildly positive with potential for .8880 and .8912.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on April 22, 2014 at 7:00am — No Comments
A sequence of 3 up weeks ended with strong selling last week - emphasising the importance of a 50% correction point. There are 3 main reasons we look for the downside to extend.
1) Prices are 'hugging the lower end of a negative Keltner channel. 2) The key 13 day moving average is capping rallies.
3) CHF showing broad strength.
Potential for .8712 and .8676.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on April 14, 2014 at 5:59am — No Comments
"The pain trade in the currency markets is the renewed weakness of the dollar against the euro, yen, Swiss franc and Australian dollar. Despite US jobless claims falling to its lowest levels since 2007, the greenback has been sold since March's Federal Open Market Committee minutes were published. In the very near term dollar longs may still be cut. But the market's position adjustment is also painful for policymakers outside the US seeking weaker domestic currencies against the greenback.…Continue
Added by Daologic on April 14, 2014 at 5:30am — No Comments
"Trading Strategy | Continue to look for opportunities to accumulate dollars as the data challenge the Fed's push back on higher market interest rates. Add GBP/USD shorts to existing USD/CHF longs on evidence of widening imbalances and slowing UK growth. Stay short EUR/USD after last week's soft Euro area CPI report and dovish ECB. Add on a break of 1.3645. Square tactical long USD/SEK exposure ahead of this week's Riksbank meeting, but…Continue
Added by Daologic on April 7, 2014 at 12:30pm — No Comments
"Changes in IMM positioning in the major currencies were moderate in the week through April 1st, except for MXN, JPY, and AUD. The former registered a significant increase in net long contracts, which led to a reversal from a net short position of –1.6k to a net long…Continue
Added by Daologic on April 7, 2014 at 6:29am — No Comments
"Euro: The combination of the dovish comments from ECB officials, where even the Bundesbank appears to have warmed to the idea of QE, and the somewhat more hawkish FOMC, has prompted some profit-taking on long euro positions. The euro peaked just shy of the $1.40 level on March 13. While Draghi's comments helped put the euro's top in, it was Yellen's comments that exposed the…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 31, 2014 at 6:46am — No Comments
1. Strong payrolls would spark sharp dollar rally
In our view the dollar has reached a major turning point against the
euro. Since the summer of 2012 the single currency has traded from 1.20
to almost 1.40 as the Federal Reserve's third round of quantitative
easing led to its balance sheet expanding while at the same time the
ECB's contracted through banks repaying Longer-Term Refinancing
Operation loans. But the Fed's balance sheet expansion is now…
Added by Daologic on March 31, 2014 at 6:39am — No Comments
"CFTC Commitments of Traders Report - Week Ending Tuesday, March 25th
Added by Daologic on March 31, 2014 at 6:25am — No Comments