All Blog Posts Tagged 'CHF' (74)

USDCHF - 3 reasons to short this week

A sequence of 3 up weeks ended with strong selling last week - emphasising the importance of a 50% correction point. There are 3 main reasons we look for the downside to extend.                

1) Prices are 'hugging the lower end of a negative Keltner channel.                                                         2) The key 13 day moving average is capping rallies.            

3) CHF showing broad strength.   

 

Potential for .8712 and .8676.…

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Added by Alan Collins on April 14, 2014 at 5:59am — No Comments

UBS FX Comment - Pain, Positioning and Policymakers

"The pain trade in the currency markets is the renewed weakness of the dollar against the euro, yen, Swiss franc and Australian dollar. Despite US jobless claims falling to its lowest levels since 2007, the greenback has been sold since March's Federal Open Market Committee minutes were published. In the very near term dollar longs may still be cut. But the market's position adjustment is also painful for policymakers outside the US seeking weaker domestic currencies against the greenback.…

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Added by Daologic on April 14, 2014 at 5:30am — No Comments

RBSM: Global Currency Themes for the Week | Still Accumulating USDs

"Trading Strategy | Continue to look for opportunities to accumulate dollars as the data challenge the Fed's push back on higher market interest rates. Add GBP/USD shorts to existing USD/CHF longs on evidence of widening imbalances and slowing UK growth. Stay short EUR/USD after last week's soft Euro area CPI report and dovish ECB. Add on a break of 1.3645. Square tactical long USD/SEK exposure ahead of this week's Riksbank meeting, but…

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Added by Daologic on April 7, 2014 at 12:30pm — No Comments

TD: FX CFTC Report

"Changes in IMM positioning in the major currencies were moderate in the week through April 1st, except for MXN, JPY, and AUD.  The former registered a significant increase in net long contracts, which led to a reversal from a net short position of –1.6k to a net long…

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Added by Daologic on April 7, 2014 at 6:29am — No Comments

BBH MarketView: Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Greenback Mixed for Start of Q2

"Euro:  The combination of the dovish comments from ECB officials, where even the Bundesbank appears to have warmed to the idea of QE, and the somewhat more hawkish FOMC, has prompted some profit-taking on long euro positions.  The euro peaked just shy of the $1.40 level on March 13.  While Draghi's comments helped put the euro's top in, it was Yellen's comments that exposed the…

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Added by Daologic on March 31, 2014 at 6:46am — No Comments

UBS FX Comment - Strong Dollar Time

"(...)

1. Strong payrolls would spark sharp dollar rally

In our view the dollar has reached a major turning point against the

euro. Since the summer of 2012 the single currency has traded from 1.20

to almost 1.40 as the Federal Reserve's third round of quantitative

easing led to its balance sheet expanding while at the same time the

ECB's contracted through banks repaying Longer-Term Refinancing

Operation loans. But the Fed's balance sheet expansion is now…

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Added by Daologic on March 31, 2014 at 6:39am — No Comments

TD: FX CFTC Report

"CFTC Commitments of Traders Report - Week Ending Tuesday, March 25th

 …

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Added by Daologic on March 31, 2014 at 6:25am — No Comments

UBS FX Comment - Fed Primes Dollar For Major Rally

"1. Strong US data now will lead to sharp dollar rallies

The dollar is primed for a major rally following this month's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The FOMC met expectations by cutting the Fed's pace of asset purchases by another $10bn to $55bn a month. But policymakers surprised on several other counts.

First, the FOMC dropped its forward guidance linking future interest rate hikes to specific levels of unemployment. The guidance had become increasingly irrelevant as…

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Added by Daologic on March 24, 2014 at 8:00am — No Comments

BMO FX Strategy Daily

"(...)

Strategy Comment

 During the London morning, it appeared as…

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Added by Daologic on March 20, 2014 at 11:36am — No Comments

UBS - FX Comment:FOMC forecasts key in the week ahead

"We forecast the dollar to strengthen to 1.25 against the euro by the end of 2014 as the Federal Reserve progressively slows down and ends its third round of quantitative easing. The Federal Open Market Committee meeting in the week ahead will prove another modest step in this direction for the greenback - even if sustained dollar strength against the euro, yen, pound and Swiss franc is still likely to only occur when the Fed is getting closer towards the end of its asset purchases in the…

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Added by Daologic on March 17, 2014 at 5:31pm — No Comments

TD: Morning FX Outlook-USDCAD: Range-Trade Continues—For Now

"FX Set-up: Too Much Event Risk Keeps Investors Sidelined…

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Added by Daologic on March 17, 2014 at 11:43am — No Comments

Rabobank FX: Seeking safe havens

"Seeking safe havens?

Last week Germany’s Chancellor Merkel warned that the EU could impose sanctions on Russia from as soon as today if President Putin did not back down from annexing Crimea.  Last…

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Added by Daologic on March 17, 2014 at 10:23am — No Comments

UBS-The week ahead in FX: G10 and EM

" G10

EUR: February CPI (Mar 17, 10:00GMT)

February's final CPI reading is due and expected to remain steady at

0.80% (y/y), remaining well below ECB target. Any further fall would

add to worries that the ECB would need to step up to avoid the

possibility of deflation, especially in light of Draghi's recent comments.

AUD: RBA Minutes (Mar 18, 00:30GMT)

The RBA's March minutes are unlikely to add much new –…

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Added by Daologic on March 17, 2014 at 6:47am — No Comments

TD: FX CFTC Report

"CFTC Commitments of Traders Report - Week Ending Tuesday, March 11th…

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Added by Daologic on March 15, 2014 at 7:53am — No Comments

ANZ Technical Insight:USD/CHF: Rebounds continue to falter and fail

Added by Daologic on March 11, 2014 at 8:28am — No Comments

USDCHF weak recovery so sentiment targets .8739

A sequence of 3 down days ended Mon as profit taking developed at the bottom of the Keltner channel. Gains were limited, after a negative gap on the open, and unable to regain any significant portion of Fri’s decline. This, despite minor gains in Asia, reflects the weakness of demand and while early gains are probable we look for them to be limited. So scope through .8761 to .8739 or even .8712.…

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Added by Alan Collins on March 11, 2014 at 7:13am — No Comments

BBH MarketView: Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Better Dollar Tone Coming

"Better Dollar Tone Coming

The euro and Swiss franc rose to new highs since Q4 2011, while sterling moved to within half a cent of the best level since 2009 set in mid-February, in recent days.  The market was all rife with speculation of a…

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Added by Daologic on March 10, 2014 at 6:30am — No Comments

TD: FX: CFTC Commitment of Traders Report

"CTA and speculative accounts showed some sharp position adjustments in this week’s CFTC data.  The aggregate long USD position was trimmed quite sharply to a total of USD17.7bn after four weeks of steady accumulation. …

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Added by Daologic on February 1, 2014 at 8:21am — No Comments

Rabobank FX: USD and JPY finding support

"USD and JPY finding support

The volatility in EM currencies may have calmed a little but there is still plenty of reason for…

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Added by Daologic on January 31, 2014 at 10:45am — No Comments

USDCHF - Building positive base

Unable to extend Tuesday's setback from 9 week highs, renewed demand was seen yesterday. While the net upside was limited prices are supported by the Ichimoku Cloud and the 13 day moving average.

In addition the 'golden' cross of the 13 & 100 day averages confirms a trending market with potential for the upside to retest this week's .9156 top and even towards .9192 in the coming days.…

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Added by Alan Collins on January 23, 2014 at 6:59am — No Comments

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