Good afternoon forex,
Nice to see all seven currencies meet or exceed my expectations today as per my trading plan. Support and resistance lines tracked according to my specs and volatility was equally matched. After reviewing today's price action here's my technical blueprint.
USDCAD: Closed at 1.0239. Resistance now at or near 1.0295. Minor support at or near 1.0218 followed by stronger support at or near 1.0150. BIAS: Mildly bearish. Catalysts: CAD…Continue
Added by The Zedder on May 20, 2013 at 10:30pm — No Comments
TD Securities - "USD/CAD’s rally from the 1.0014 low last week struggled at the 50% retracement point before the advance resumed and we largely expect a similar pattern of trade as the market stalls around the 76.4% retracement resistance now. A minor consolidation in the market should be followed by renewed gains through the 1.0225 resistance area (intraday pivot as well as retracement resistance). We look for good support intraday to the mid 1.01 area (some risk of a slip back to the…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 16, 2013 at 7:17pm — No Comments
TD Securities - "We have upgraded our outlook for the USD across a broad front. We are adjusting our views to reflect some market developments that have occurred a little more rapidly than we had expected (such as the push up in USD/JPY). But we are also recognising the emergence of some trends that we feel support our long-held view that the USD’s secular bear trend is very mature and is poised to show signs of a further recovery.
(...) We have upgraded out USD/JPY forecast to reflect…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 14, 2013 at 3:02pm — No Comments
Societé Generale - "The FX markets are now under the influence of a trilogy of themes: the American economic revival, diverging monetary policy expectations and the (unfinished) euro area (EA) crisis.
Those themes all point in the same direction: a stronger dollar. Dollar strength is now far less dependent on risk conditions; the US economic outperformance and the fears of a not-too-distant Fed exit imply that the dollar is no longer a funding currency of choice in the carry trade. The…
Aud/Usd broken it’s bearish trend-line in 60min chart, while in 240min chart, it’s complete it’s ending diagonal pattern, as a part of wave v of wave .
I am expecting pull back here, we are looking for possible target zone in wave  as follow:
1) 1.0027 – 23.6% Fibonacci Target
2) 1.0085-1.0095 –…Continue
Added by FxMind on May 14, 2013 at 3:21am — No Comments
National Bank Financial - "The Bank of Canada is one of the few major central banks that has remained relatively passive regarding its currency. That stance may have inflated the degree of the loonie’s overvaluation and hurt our exporters, particularly manufacturers, who have seen their US market share shrink dramatically. While domestic demand picked up the slack in recent years, it would be unwise to expect it to continue compensating for underperforming exports. Canada will need exports…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 13, 2013 at 4:52pm — No Comments
I change label little bit from impulse wave to corrective wave, but path is still down. Once we complete wave B, aud/usd can set for lower. Any short should have protective stop loss @ 1.0370. Current price is testing the 38.2% Fibonacci level along with upper boundary of the channel. So, there are chances that, aud/usd can reverse from here, or from 50% @ 1.027 area.
Added by FxMind on May 9, 2013 at 4:37am — No Comments
Looking at the EUR vs CAD using the Ichimoku system we can see that price has bounced off of the bottom of the Kumo Cloud. The bottom of the cloud is resistance at the 1.32380 mark. Also we have Fib levels drawn in and the 50% retracement level is in confluence with the bottom of the cloud giving us even more reason to believe the resistance level will hold. The 100 period MA which is…Continue
UBS - " Foreign exchange markets have started May still largely rangebound. But the two major central bank meetings so far this month have begun to shift the balance of risks.
First, the European Central Bank's willingness to consider cutting interest rates below zero is set to act as a cap on the euro. Shorting the single currency has been difficult this year. But upside risks are likely to be limited now by ECB officials discussing negative interest rates whenever the euro rises. In…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 6, 2013 at 1:13pm — No Comments
Brown Brothers Harriman - "The Dollar-Index did rally in the second half of last week, but ran into a wall of offers near 82.50 a key retracement objective of the previous week's drop. Provided this area holds, we are more inclined to see it fall toward 81.20 and maybe 80.70.
The decline in the euro in the second half of last week largely held a trend line drawn off the April 4 and April 24 lows. The trend line comes in near $1.3070 on Monday and $1.3125 by the end of next week. Initial…
Societé Generale - "Good morning. It's risk-on and raining in London. The Bundesbank doesn't like OMT (we knew that), Angela Merkel chose to point out that Germany needs higher rates (not so sure about that) and next week's ECB meeting and conference call will be fun. But that's all for next week. Today, the SG risk sentiment indicator is back in ‘risk-seeking' territory - an extremely rare event in 2013 despite the S&Ps gains this year.
(...) Crowded positions have been flushed:…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 26, 2013 at 7:36am — No Comments
TD Securities - "USD/CAD is breaking out of the consolidation pattern that trapped the market in a tight range through the latter part of last week (above 1.0250/55) with a little more intent. Initial gains were capped in the 1.0270 area but the push higher seen so far today should see USD/CAD make minor new highs (above 1.0291) at least near-term. We rather think that the move implies scope for a push beyond the recent 1.0341 peak. We spot short-term support now at 1.0270 intraday, stronger…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 22, 2013 at 6:09pm — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "We do not expect any policy shift by the Bank of Canada (BoC) at its policy decision on 17 April. In our opinion, the data since the 6 March decision is not enough to warrant a material change in policy in either direction. We also do not think the data in the past quarter is enough to cause BoC officials to dramatically alter their outlook in the quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR), which will be released at the same time. In the January MPR, BoC officials…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 16, 2013 at 2:01pm — No Comments
TD Securities - "USD/CAD’s technical picture has deteriorated somewhat today, in our opinion. We still think the market is consolidating but we had highlighted the 1.0180/85 area as important support for funds and the weakness in the USD below this support zone this morning tips the balance in favour of a bit more softness in the market from here. We may be looking at a more substantial retracement of the 0.99/1.0340 rally in the next week or so, in other words—potentially towards the 1.01…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 26, 2013 at 6:12pm — No Comments
Rabobank - "The AUD and the CAD have been the best performing G10 currencies on a 1 day view on the back of the bailout deal from Cyprus. These currencies continue to behave as a reasonable litmus test for ‘risk on’ behaviour although the outlook for both have recently been complicated by uncertainties over the direction of domestic central bank policy. We have remained buyers of AUD/USD on dips for months on the premise that as long as the market is awash with liquidity there would be…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 25, 2013 at 10:24am — No Comments
TD Securities - "The twin rejections at 1.0340 and the subsequent loss of short-term range support and the double top neckline trigger at 1.0257 clearly puts a softer spin on the charts for USD/CAD. Trend momentum has turned negative on the short-term term studies, suggesting limited scope for USD/CAD gains at the moment. But downside scope may also be limited. The measured move target derived from the 1.0340 double top has already been largely reached (1.0174). The USD has, so far, found…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 18, 2013 at 6:43pm — No Comments
HSBC - "Dollar Bloc:
CAD headwinds – Recent developments have proven problematic for the CAD, from a more sluggish economy and slippage in some commodity prices, to yet another downscaling of the Bank of Canada’s tightening bias. Moreover, the less favourable shift in the fundamental backdrop suggests less CAD strength than we previously expected, and we have adjusted our forecasts accordingly.
AUD going down under – The AUD has been…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 14, 2013 at 3:44pm — No Comments
TD Securities - "The TD View: Trading Vias:
US: Position for long term USD gains. Buy short term dips.
Canada: Look to sell CAD rallies.
Europe: Sell EUR rallies below 1.3250.
Asia/Pacific: Both AUD and NZD are sagging below our mid-year targets but yield-seeking will prevail again
LatAm: We like short BRLMXN, targetting 6.34, or 6.16 if central bank comments support a sharp adjustment in rate expectations.
EMEA: We like short EUR/PLN, targetting 4.07. USD/RUB cheap…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 7, 2013 at 5:00pm — No Comments
TD Securities - "USD/CAD closed a bit sluggishly last night as the market struggle to maintain the positive traction seen earlier in the session but this is no real impediment to the firmer USD/CAD undertone. The bid for funds has returned so far today and we generally think is likely to be the way this market functions for the moment—that is to say modest losses will be more or less easily absorbed by willing buyers on modest dips. We say this because 1) the market has made some clear…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 20, 2013 at 4:26pm — No Comments