All Blog Posts Tagged 'CAD' (231)


Overall, we continue to feel that the USD’s broader rally is running out of steam and prone to a correction; that observation, combined with some soft-looking technical signals for USDCAD on the short-term charts continues to make us a little more concerned about a move lower in USDCAD in the next couple of weeks.  USDCAD struggled to hold a bid this week and has looked heavy near 1.10 or a little above. Short-term chart…


Added by Daologic on September 19, 2014 at 11:37am — No Comments


Support 1.0925 Resistance 1.1000

Usd/Cad remains stuck in the range that has prevailed for most of this week, with flows still very much mixed. Usd strength has been countered by Cad strength on many of the crosses, especially Cad/Jpy and Aud/Cad. We would expect to see offers lined up towards 1.1000 now, and beyond that, the key 1.1100 area is still pivotal. To the downside we should still find stops through 1.0925, ahead of demand towards 1.0875/1.0900. Main focus today will be…


Added by Daologic on September 19, 2014 at 11:30am — No Comments

TD:USDCAD NEW TRADE – September 18

Sell USDCAD at 1.0910 stop entry, risk 1.0950. Target 1.0780
We are extending our negative short-term view on the USD to the CAD this week and want to sell USDCAD on a break below technical support in the low 1.09s. The CAD is supported by stable interest rate spreads versus the USD, which might be enough to fuel a push under 1.08 near-term. That would also ’fit’ with seasonal trends that are typically adverse for USDCAD around this time of year.

Added by Daologic on September 19, 2014 at 3:53am — 1 Comment

TD: CAD technical outlook-15 september.


"We highlighted developments on the weekly chart Friday but it is probably worth reiterating what is going on here after USDCAD closed out the week at its best levels since March. The broader bull trend is slowly but surely getting back on track after the Q2 correction; that slide saw funds test, and hold, major support defined by the trend off the 2012 low and the 40- week/200-day MA. The consolidation since March formed a bull wedge and the July break above…


Added by Daologic on September 15, 2014 at 2:55pm — No Comments

BMO FX strategy daily: USDCAD

"Support 1.0850 Resistance 1.0925

The Usd is trading broadly higher this morning, led by Usd/Jpy and the Nikkei overnight in Asia. We have seen some Macro demand for Usd/Cad from yesterday’s lows but offsetting…


Added by Daologic on September 2, 2014 at 12:34pm — No Comments

TD Securities:EURCAD technical outlook-28 Aug

EURCAD retains a weak bias after yesterday’s break under key support at 1.4420 and the market is making good progress already towards our 1.40/1.42 target zone. Given the generalized strength in the CAD and broader weakness in the EUR, we may have to lower our sights a little still. There is solid, bear trend momentum…


Added by Daologic on August 29, 2014 at 5:00am — No Comments

USDCAD - Testing key Averages - Downside break expected this week

The sequence of 3 up weeks ended with the market unable to sustain prices beyond a 50% correction of the fall from this year’s top, 1.0949. The most negative performance for 7 weeks resulted from this price action. This downside stalled on Friday around the 13/100/200 day moving averages and this introduces a note of caution but sentiment is left negative with only  the…


Added by Alan Collins on August 18, 2014 at 7:25am — No Comments

TD:USDCAD- Buy the Dip

"Open 1.0916     Range 1.0900/1.0919     Prev. Close 1.0903

Technically, we can observe a strong underlying bull trend still developing in USDCAD.  Short, medium and long-term trend momentum oscillators are aligned bullishly, something which usually delivers a grinding directional move with…


Added by Daologic on July 31, 2014 at 11:32am — No Comments


"USDCAD has sustained the move through the trigger point of the bull wedge pattern that broke down late last week but, as we suspected might be the case, the low 1.08 resistance area has slowed gains, leaving the USD trading in a narrow range through Monday so far. We may see some modest back and filling of the…


Added by Daologic on July 29, 2014 at 6:47am — No Comments

USDCAD - Platformed by average - gains to extend this week

Following a week of indecisive trading, last week saw a renewal of investor demand. This continued the rally from this month’s low and took USDCAD to the highest levels for 5 weeks. This move was dominated by Friday’s powerful gains and although a failure to break through the 200 day avg or the Marabuzo line created 5 weeks previously concerns, the support offered by the 13 day avg last week, and a move to the top of a rising Keltner channel gives scope for the upside to extend to 1.0857 and…


Added by Alan Collins on July 28, 2014 at 7:58am — No Comments

TD Securities: CADJPY technical outlook-21 July

"CADJPY continues to pressure major support in the low 94 area. Despite failing to hold last Friday’s channel break, we still rather favour the downside for the CADJPY. The short-term trend lower from the early July high at 96.22 is well-defined and relatively well-entrenched on the short-term charts. Intraday…


Added by Daologic on July 22, 2014 at 4:09am — No Comments

TD Securities: New trade Buy USDCAD at 1.0739. Risk 1.06, target 1.10.

"We think the broader, downward correction in USDCAD has run its course; technical factors are turning bullish after the rebound from 1.0600/50 and the fundamental data flow is likely to remain challenging for the CAD. Market positioning is neutral and there is no incentive for investors to get long CAD, in our opinion. We think there is a risk that Canada's June CPI data disappoints to the downside, which should help push USDCAD to, and perhaps through,1.08."

Added by Daologic on July 18, 2014 at 6:19am — No Comments

TD: Morning FX Outlook USDCAD


Technically, price signals on the short and medium-term charts are bullish.  We think USDCAD price action marked a strong rejection of the low 1.06 area via a bullish outside range day on Friday and a more complex bull reversal signal on the weekly chart (bullish “morning star” pattern) following the weak…


Added by Daologic on July 16, 2014 at 1:46pm — No Comments

Rabobank FX: central banks, centre stage- USDCAD


Towards the end of June the market started to rethink its bearish CAD view.  Canadian CPI inflation headed higher and this triggered a debate over whether the BoC will be forced to drop its dovish tone.   Countering this view, last week’s BoC’s Outlook Survey suggested the existence of downside risks on inflation.  Since this will likely be used by the BoC as reason to maintain the dovish outlook it this…


Added by Daologic on July 14, 2014 at 9:46am — No Comments

BMO FX Strategy Daily - USDCAD

"USDCAD has drifted lower all morning, following a similar tone in the price action during the Asian session.  This as much reflects the positioning and ‘stop hunt’ pressures we’ve alluded to earlier in the week as it does a generally soft USD.  The deviation of USDCAD from its key drivers is still very sizeable and USDCAD snap back risks are not exactly small here.  But it’s now pretty safe to conclude that…


Added by Daologic on June 26, 2014 at 1:31pm — 1 Comment

TD: Morning FX Outlook: USDCAD-Little Changed

"Open 1.0739  Range 1.0738/52  Prev. Close 1.0745

The short term charts suggests a somewhat heavier tone unfolding for USDCAD as our session gets underway; failure to progress much through the mid 1.07s overnight leaves funds looking technically heavy and prone to a…


Added by Daologic on June 25, 2014 at 12:08pm — No Comments

BMO FX Strategy Daily:USDCAD

"Support 1.0700 Resistance 1.0750

No data today from Canada, and there was another tight range in Asia too, so it looks like another slow day is likely. Key support still lies around the 1.0700 area and it feels like that level should be tested at some point this week. To the topside we would expect to find…


Added by Daologic on June 24, 2014 at 11:34am — No Comments

BMO FX Strategy Daily: USDCAD

"Support 1.0700 Resistance 1.0750

The Canadian data releases last Friday, both Retail Sales and CPI came in well above expectations, and was enough to send USDCAD lower, with the key support at 1.0800 finally giving way. The move through the 200 day MA at 1.0781 seemed to entice further sellers and this…


Added by Daologic on June 23, 2014 at 11:45am — No Comments

TD: Morning FX Outlook USDCAD

"Still, as the dust settles after the CPI report, this feels a bit like a back to the drawing board moment for us, as long-time CAD bears and we clearly have to lower our sights for the USDCAD outlook in the near-term at least.  The slide back to the low 1.07s in USDCAD tales back about half of the rally seen from September last year—technically, a…


Added by Daologic on June 23, 2014 at 11:40am — No Comments

Société Générale's Top 10 forex trade recommendations for the second half of 2014

Société Générale's Top 10 forex trade recommendations for the second half of 2014

Here are SocGen's top 10 for the second half of this year. Verbatim.

1- Long USD, NOK and GBP vs CHF, SEK and EUR.

Easy money continues to support risk taking, but the FX carry trade needs to be selective, i.e. avoid trades where valuation is stretched (e.g. risk/reward in NZD/JPY isn't great). This portfolio exploits central bank policy differentiation. An alternative is to be long USD, NOK…


Added by Daologic on June 20, 2014 at 4:05pm — No Comments


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