"AUD/CAD slipped to a marginal new cycle low overnight but bargain hunters stepped in to limit the sell-off and bring the cross marginally off the low just ahead of the 50% retracement support of the August/October rally at 0.9616. The overall pattern of trade still looks weak to us and, unless there is a further rebound in price that extends through tomorrow, we rather think that a deeper retracement of 0.91/1.00 move is still required (and likely near-term) on the basis of the strong…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 25, 2013 at 5:08pm — No Comments
"EUR/CAD’s pop higher above 1.42 seems to have stalled today. Intraday patterns of trade look soft, with the 6-hour charts suggesting a minor high is in for the session. That may see the market gravitate towards the mid/upper 1.41 area in the next few days—where the 40-day MA currently resides (1.4167). The pivot point for a lot of the chop seen in the market in the past few sessions at 1.4125 is not under immediate threat and, given the swings in the market over the past few days, we would…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 25, 2013 at 5:04pm — No Comments
"USD/CAD may be at risk of slipping back a little more intraday as early trade is pressuring hourly trend and retracement support in the mid 1.05s. We think intraday losses should be limited—to the 1.0520 area—however, as the broader trend still looks constructive. Short-term trend momentum has weakened over the past few hours, leaving the market looking like a short-term range trade below 1.0565/85.
USD/CAD peeled off the intraday high Friday and closed out the session just off the…
"CAD/JPY’s ability to squeeze out a marginal new high—above last Friday’s inside range session—suggests that the nearterm trend here remains higher, if only modestly so. We still look on the cross as holding very near the middle of the recent, sideways trading range. The rise through the September/October channel ceiling earlier this month confers a slightly more positive look to the cross but we think the broader range will hold and the market will tend to look for opportunities to fade CAD…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 25, 2013 at 4:31pm — No Comments
Goldman Sachs - "We expect continued low and possibly falling FX volatility in the early part of 2014. Later in the year, evidence of improving growth could increase the market focus on the approaching end to ultra-low interest rates in some key economies. Volatility will likely pick up again and clearer directional FX opportunities materialise. The timing of these more directional moves is uncertain and it is quite possible that they will not materialise until 2015. Much will depend on the…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on November 25, 2013 at 11:28am — No Comments
"(...) The euro-yen and sterling yen crosses capture the theme. Both are trading at multi-year highs, even though the dollar remains a few percentage points below the high it set against the yen in May.
The euro traded down to almost the support near GBP0.8300, but sterling is at 3-year highs…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 25, 2013 at 5:35am — No Comments
"FX Set-up: USD Mixed, Focus on Commodity FX
EUR/USD has taken back more than 3/4 of the sell-off seen earlier in the week on the back of the negative depo rate…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 22, 2013 at 1:25pm — No Comments
"CAD/JPY has pushed a little higher this morning and the short-term trend up is adopting a slightly stronger profile now as the market gets a little further away from the 95.25 pivotal support/resistance zone and generates a little more positive trend momentum.
Essentially, however, this is a market that remains in a broad, sideways trading range. We would expect the market to start to fade rallies towards the 97.00/50 area near-term."…
Added by Daologic on November 22, 2013 at 11:25am — No Comments
EURUSD BEARISH With bearish conditions intact, any recovery will be limited to resistance at 1.3579. Support is at 1.3400, a break below this would expose 1.3293.
USDJPY BULLISH Further support developed on Thursday and the pair is trading within striking distance of the resistance at 101.53, a break through which would open 103.74. Support is at 99.57.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL There is an important resistance at 1.6260, a break through which would be positive as it would indicate more upside…
"GBP/CAD continues to range trade below the recent (multi-year) highs. The range trade has robbed the market of some momentum but the underlying trend remains positive in the near-term and broader trend momentum studies are still bullishly aligned. We think new cycle highs would be helpful in re-establishing a stronger sense of near-term momentum here but the underlying trend up remains well-established from a technical point of view and a push on to the 1.72 area (our near-term target)…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 19, 2013 at 7:42am — No Comments
"AUD/CAD retain a corrective undertone having found support a little ahead of the 38.2% retracement of the 0.9185/1.0047 rally last week. We are still not convinced that the correction lower is fully complete, however, as the strength of the sell-off from the 1.00+ area last month implied a strong rejection of the 200-day/200-week moving averages and the risk of a deeper correction of the August/October rally. We remain bearish and expect near-term gains to remain limited to the low 0.98s…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 19, 2013 at 7:38am — No Comments
"EUR/CAD continues to chop narrowly around the 1.41 area where the 28– and 40-day MAs are converging. The near-term direction for this cross remains somewhat uncertain. The weekly reversal from the mid 1.44s around the turn of the month suggests an important top is in place. The break below 1.4125 support also suggests that downside risks are mounting. But the sell off seems to have generated little follow through interest so far and the EUR has found good support on dips, with the base of…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 19, 2013 at 7:33am — No Comments
"USD/CAD has traded steadily lower since peaking above 1.05 late last week. The failure to hold those gains has proven to be a significant setback for the market but, with the spot level now 100 ticks or so off the peak seen Thursday, we would expect some buying interest to re-emerge sooner rather than later. The hourly chart, above, suggests that selling pressure is easing at least, via the downward sloping wedge pattern that has shaped trade since last Thursday’s high. That does not…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 19, 2013 at 7:26am — No Comments
"Going Round In Circles
G10: Scandie weakness may continue as initial disappointment over weak growth and inflation prospects turns into self-reinforcing ‘safe-haven’ unwinds. Technicals suggest that they, CAD and JPY may be most
vulnerable to USD strength heading into year end. Elsewhere, support for the euro from equity inflows appears to be waning.
Outside of fundamentals, the Scandies could also suffer from being close to their lows against the dollar…
Added by Daologic on November 15, 2013 at 11:30am — No Comments
"For the past three weeks, shifting monetary policy expectations have been the main driving force behind the USD/CAD’s performance, and market price action more broadly. Each day in the coming week will offer up some more opinions from Fed officials, but we are unlikely to get firmer guidance on QE tapering, which could bring some of USD/CAD’s other drivers back in focus. Weakness in
commodity prices is a key factor that we think has not been fully priced into USD/CAD yet. Softer…
Added by Daologic on November 15, 2013 at 4:58am — No Comments
"Soft GDP data in the Eurozone and Japan have helped steady and reverse the USD following the slide seen through yesterday’s session, driven partly at least by speculation of dovish Yellen comments. A case of sell the rumour and by the fact for the markets, with the main thrust of the comments hardly surprising? EUR/USD has recovered about a…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 14, 2013 at 12:48pm — No Comments
"Dollar strength has extended into the European session, as the retracement after the pre-release of Yellen’s speech yesterday—and the related spike in EUR/USD—continues. The euro, however, is managing to outperform all other G10 currencies, while the market continues to be focused on US events.…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 14, 2013 at 12:05pm — No Comments
The pair recovered much of this week and is held by the resistance at 1.3501. A
breach of this level would open the way to 1.3627. Support is at 1.3397 ahead of
USDJPY BULLISH Resistance is at 100.61, a break above which would open 101.53. Support is at
98.71 ahead of 97.62.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.6118, a break above which would open the critical 1.6260.
Support is at 1.5855 ahead of 1.5708.
USDCHF NEUTRAL The pair has been…
Added by Daologic on November 14, 2013 at 7:44am — No Comments
FX Set-up: Deciphering Fed Signals
The BoE Inflation report has been the focus overnight, and the overall takeaway is that the outlook is officially a bit more optimistic now. That’s not too surprising…Continue