All Blog Posts Tagged 'CAD' (225)

USDCAD - Testing key Averages - Downside break expected this week

The sequence of 3 up weeks ended with the market unable to sustain prices beyond a 50% correction of the fall from this year’s top, 1.0949. The most negative performance for 7 weeks resulted from this price action. This downside stalled on Friday around the 13/100/200 day moving averages and this introduces a note of caution but sentiment is left negative with only  the…


Added by Alan Collins on August 18, 2014 at 7:25am — No Comments

TD:USDCAD- Buy the Dip

"Open 1.0916     Range 1.0900/1.0919     Prev. Close 1.0903

Technically, we can observe a strong underlying bull trend still developing in USDCAD.  Short, medium and long-term trend momentum oscillators are aligned bullishly, something which usually delivers a grinding directional move with…


Added by Daologic on July 31, 2014 at 11:32am — No Comments


"USDCAD has sustained the move through the trigger point of the bull wedge pattern that broke down late last week but, as we suspected might be the case, the low 1.08 resistance area has slowed gains, leaving the USD trading in a narrow range through Monday so far. We may see some modest back and filling of the…


Added by Daologic on July 29, 2014 at 6:47am — No Comments

USDCAD - Platformed by average - gains to extend this week

Following a week of indecisive trading, last week saw a renewal of investor demand. This continued the rally from this month’s low and took USDCAD to the highest levels for 5 weeks. This move was dominated by Friday’s powerful gains and although a failure to break through the 200 day avg or the Marabuzo line created 5 weeks previously concerns, the support offered by the 13 day avg last week, and a move to the top of a rising Keltner channel gives scope for the upside to extend to 1.0857 and…


Added by Alan Collins on July 28, 2014 at 7:58am — No Comments

TD Securities: CADJPY technical outlook-21 July

"CADJPY continues to pressure major support in the low 94 area. Despite failing to hold last Friday’s channel break, we still rather favour the downside for the CADJPY. The short-term trend lower from the early July high at 96.22 is well-defined and relatively well-entrenched on the short-term charts. Intraday…


Added by Daologic on July 22, 2014 at 4:09am — No Comments

TD Securities: New trade Buy USDCAD at 1.0739. Risk 1.06, target 1.10.

"We think the broader, downward correction in USDCAD has run its course; technical factors are turning bullish after the rebound from 1.0600/50 and the fundamental data flow is likely to remain challenging for the CAD. Market positioning is neutral and there is no incentive for investors to get long CAD, in our opinion. We think there is a risk that Canada's June CPI data disappoints to the downside, which should help push USDCAD to, and perhaps through,1.08."

Added by Daologic on July 18, 2014 at 6:19am — No Comments

TD: Morning FX Outlook USDCAD


Technically, price signals on the short and medium-term charts are bullish.  We think USDCAD price action marked a strong rejection of the low 1.06 area via a bullish outside range day on Friday and a more complex bull reversal signal on the weekly chart (bullish “morning star” pattern) following the weak…


Added by Daologic on July 16, 2014 at 1:46pm — No Comments

Rabobank FX: central banks, centre stage- USDCAD


Towards the end of June the market started to rethink its bearish CAD view.  Canadian CPI inflation headed higher and this triggered a debate over whether the BoC will be forced to drop its dovish tone.   Countering this view, last week’s BoC’s Outlook Survey suggested the existence of downside risks on inflation.  Since this will likely be used by the BoC as reason to maintain the dovish outlook it this…


Added by Daologic on July 14, 2014 at 9:46am — No Comments

BMO FX Strategy Daily - USDCAD

"USDCAD has drifted lower all morning, following a similar tone in the price action during the Asian session.  This as much reflects the positioning and ‘stop hunt’ pressures we’ve alluded to earlier in the week as it does a generally soft USD.  The deviation of USDCAD from its key drivers is still very sizeable and USDCAD snap back risks are not exactly small here.  But it’s now pretty safe to conclude that…


Added by Daologic on June 26, 2014 at 1:31pm — 1 Comment

TD: Morning FX Outlook: USDCAD-Little Changed

"Open 1.0739  Range 1.0738/52  Prev. Close 1.0745

The short term charts suggests a somewhat heavier tone unfolding for USDCAD as our session gets underway; failure to progress much through the mid 1.07s overnight leaves funds looking technically heavy and prone to a…


Added by Daologic on June 25, 2014 at 12:08pm — No Comments

BMO FX Strategy Daily:USDCAD

"Support 1.0700 Resistance 1.0750

No data today from Canada, and there was another tight range in Asia too, so it looks like another slow day is likely. Key support still lies around the 1.0700 area and it feels like that level should be tested at some point this week. To the topside we would expect to find…


Added by Daologic on June 24, 2014 at 11:34am — No Comments

BMO FX Strategy Daily: USDCAD

"Support 1.0700 Resistance 1.0750

The Canadian data releases last Friday, both Retail Sales and CPI came in well above expectations, and was enough to send USDCAD lower, with the key support at 1.0800 finally giving way. The move through the 200 day MA at 1.0781 seemed to entice further sellers and this…


Added by Daologic on June 23, 2014 at 11:45am — No Comments

TD: Morning FX Outlook USDCAD

"Still, as the dust settles after the CPI report, this feels a bit like a back to the drawing board moment for us, as long-time CAD bears and we clearly have to lower our sights for the USDCAD outlook in the near-term at least.  The slide back to the low 1.07s in USDCAD tales back about half of the rally seen from September last year—technically, a…


Added by Daologic on June 23, 2014 at 11:40am — No Comments

Société Générale's Top 10 forex trade recommendations for the second half of 2014

Société Générale's Top 10 forex trade recommendations for the second half of 2014

Here are SocGen's top 10 for the second half of this year. Verbatim.

1- Long USD, NOK and GBP vs CHF, SEK and EUR.

Easy money continues to support risk taking, but the FX carry trade needs to be selective, i.e. avoid trades where valuation is stretched (e.g. risk/reward in NZD/JPY isn't great). This portfolio exploits central bank policy differentiation. An alternative is to be long USD, NOK…


Added by Daologic on June 20, 2014 at 4:05pm — No Comments

TD:USDCAD Retesting Recent Lows

"Open 1.0818     Range 1.0814/1.0826     Prev. Close 1.0818

Given the persistent heavy tone displayed by funds over the last two weeks, an on-consensus inflation print will most likely take USDCAD…


Added by Daologic on June 20, 2014 at 11:32am — No Comments


"Support 1.0800 Resistance 1.0850

Tight ranges again yesterday and overnight, but the market is hovering above the key support near 1.0800, and if we get strong data today we should see a concerted break lower. Crosses look fairly stable for now, with EURCAD sellers seen ahead of 1.4800. 1.4650 remains the key…


Added by Daologic on June 20, 2014 at 11:27am — No Comments

TD: Morning FX Outlook-USDCAD

"We see USDCAD is being anchored in a tight 1.0830/1.0890 range for the moment.  No change in the Fed’s message today may see the USD slip back to the lower zone of supported noted above but we see no strong incentive to push the USD significantly lower.  We consider USDCAD to be quite significantly undervalued relative to our fair value assessment currently (nearer 1.12).  We still rather think modesty USD losses towards…


Added by Daologic on June 18, 2014 at 11:39am — No Comments


"There may be better opportunities to short the CAD—versus the JPY amid declining expectations of  the need for further BoJ stimulus and safe-haven demand, CADJPY remains blocked below 94.00/10, where the market has been capped for the past month.  GBPCAD remains a candidate to improve in the medium-term amid positive BoE rate comments and a still…


Added by Daologic on June 16, 2014 at 11:35am — No Comments

TD: Morning FX Outlook USDCAD

"Only decisively dovish comments – unlikely at this stage – could propel USDCAD to break above the 40-day MA, which has proved an effective barrier for funds since late-March.  This, in combination with this week's price action and the bid CAD has been receiving on the EUR cross, suggest downside risks currently dominate, leaving USDCAD vulnerable to a retest of the low 1.08s. We look for firmer support to emerge in the…


Added by Daologic on June 12, 2014 at 11:35am — No Comments

TD: Morning FX Outlook -USDCAD

"In the near-term, we think wider US-Canada spreads in the belly of the curve will add to upward pressure on spot.  At the 5-year sector of the curve, the US yield premium has reached 10bps—the biggest yield advantage for the USD since 2009.  Using 5-year spreads and terms of trade as inputs into our fair value regression…


Added by Daologic on June 10, 2014 at 11:41am — No Comments


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