All Blog Posts Tagged 'BoJ' (88)

Rabobank FX: USD/JPY, how low can it go?


 Currently, USD/JPY is positioned at the top on the weekly cloud at 101.40.  A close below this level this week would also hint at further downside potential towards the 100.80 area initially. 

  While USD/JPY could…


Added by Daologic on July 1, 2014 at 9:04am — No Comments

UBS - This week's key points for currencies: ECB to cut deposit rate below zero in the week ahead

UBS - "The European Central Bank will be the focus in the week ahead, eclipsing the Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of Canada policy decisions and America's ISM and payrolls releases. The risk of the ECB pursuing negative interest rates or expanding its balance sheet is set to keep the euro trading heavily into the Governing Council meeting. But the franc may incur more volatility in June if the Swiss National Bank matches any ECB decision to cut deposit rates below zero.…


Added by Francesc Riverola on June 2, 2014 at 9:30am — No Comments

UBS - This Week's Key Points: US core PCE inflation will become increasingly important

UBS - "In the week ahead, US April core PCE inflation will show whether the Federal Reserve needs to consider earlier tightening. In contrast, Japan's national CPI release will test the Bank of Japan's resolve to keep its current pace of quantitative easing unchanged and Eurozone M3 money supply is likely to show credit growth remaining too subdued to revive inflation quickly in the Eurozone. The dollar is set to keep gaining as the Federal Reserve tapers its balance sheet expansion while…


Added by Francesc Riverola on May 26, 2014 at 9:17am — 1 Comment

UBS - This week's key points for currencies: ECB speakers to keep euro a sell on rallies

UBS - "Financial markets are giving out inconsistent signals. A firmer yen, stronger Treasuries and bunds, weaker Eurozone peripheral bonds and lower stocks point to increased risk aversion. But the Swiss franc is weakening while commodity currencies are stable. The major currencies are more likely still to be driven by shifts in monetary policy. The Federal Reserve is set to keep tapering, helping the dollar recover from this year's lows. The likelihood of European Central Bank easing next…


Added by Francesc Riverola on May 19, 2014 at 10:08am — No Comments

DB: ECB, Boj, BoE

"In a world where the ECB is mulling over cutting rates further and contemplating QE, the Fed being very careful not to frighten the market into expecting rate rises too soon, the BoJ possibly increasing QE by YE, and China considering the need to ease policy, could the BoE today surprise global markets by flagging earlier rate hikes in its quarterly inflation report today? Three months ago Mr Carney effectively signalled the end of specific guidance and moved back to the old fashioned central… Continue

Added by Daologic on May 14, 2014 at 9:56am — No Comments

UBS - This week's key points for currencies: A Key Week For The Dollar

UBS - "The dollar continues to trade at weak levels against the euro, pound and Swiss franc as the Federal Reserve is still printing money and buying bonds. In the week ahead the Federal Open Market Committee is likely to taper its asset purchases by another $10bn to $45bn a month. We expect the greenback to rise across the board as the end of quantitative easing comes into sight by the autumn. But this month's FOMC decision may only provide marginal support to the dollar as the Fed will…


Added by Francesc Riverola on April 28, 2014 at 9:19am — No Comments

The Backstreet Boys of the Financial Markets

Mario Draghi, Shinzo Abe, Haruhiko Kuroda, Mark Carney and Ben Bernanke* are what I call the Backstreet Boys of the Financial Markets. *Janet Yellen is new and she did nothing ‘till now to deserve a place in this music band.

Mario Draghi

In the last 2 years, the ECB enjoyed the cheapest monetary policy, thanks to Mario Draghi’s magic words “whatever it takes”. While FED, BoE or BoJ had to print money to “save” their economies, investors bought Europe based on the safety…


Added by Arenoosh on April 24, 2014 at 8:11pm — 1 Comment

UBS - This Week's Key Points: Dollar oversold on FOMC minutes

UBS - "In the week ahead, Fed Chair Yellen makes two public appearances while US retail sales, CPI inflation, industrial production and the New York and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing surveys are released. The greenback has been held back in Q1'14 by weather-affected data. But the US economy is likely to record stronger prints in Q2'14 as the latest weekly jobless claims numbers show. That will increase the risk of the dollar recovering from its current weak levels. This week's key points…


Added by Francesc Riverola on April 14, 2014 at 10:58am — No Comments

UBS FX Comment - Pain, Positioning and Policymakers

"The pain trade in the currency markets is the renewed weakness of the dollar against the euro, yen, Swiss franc and Australian dollar. Despite US jobless claims falling to its lowest levels since 2007, the greenback has been sold since March's Federal Open Market Committee minutes were published. In the very near term dollar longs may still be cut. But the market's position adjustment is also painful for policymakers outside the US seeking weaker domestic currencies against the greenback.…


Added by Daologic on April 14, 2014 at 5:30am — No Comments

BBH MarketView: ECB Action: Just a Matter of Time?

"ECB Action:  Just a Matter of Time?

The Managing Director of the IMF and the chief economist are making no bones about it. More action by the ECB is inevitable. It is "just a question of timing," says Lagarde and "sooner was better than later", chimed…


Added by Daologic on April 11, 2014 at 2:30pm — 1 Comment

TD: Morning FX Outlook-USDCAD: Slides Below Key Support

"USDCAD: Slides Below Key Support…


Added by Daologic on April 10, 2014 at 11:30am — No Comments

UBS - This week's key points for currencies: FOMC minutes due in the week ahead

UBS - "The foreign exchange markets reacted to America's March employment report by favouring higher-yielding emerging markets and commodity currencies. But US data is unlikely to remain 'not too hot' to spur fears of Federal Reserve tightening and 'not too cold' to raise concerns about the recovery. Instead Friday's payrolls report clearly showed America's economy emerging from the winter slowdown. The Fed is thus on track to finish tapering its bond purchases by the autumn, raising the…


Added by Francesc Riverola on April 8, 2014 at 10:37am — No Comments

UBS FX Comment - Strong Dollar Time


1. Strong payrolls would spark sharp dollar rally

In our view the dollar has reached a major turning point against the

euro. Since the summer of 2012 the single currency has traded from 1.20

to almost 1.40 as the Federal Reserve's third round of quantitative

easing led to its balance sheet expanding while at the same time the

ECB's contracted through banks repaying Longer-Term Refinancing

Operation loans. But the Fed's balance sheet expansion is now…


Added by Daologic on March 31, 2014 at 6:39am — No Comments

UBS FX Comment - Fed Primes Dollar For Major Rally

"1. Strong US data now will lead to sharp dollar rallies

The dollar is primed for a major rally following this month's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The FOMC met expectations by cutting the Fed's pace of asset purchases by another $10bn to $55bn a month. But policymakers surprised on several other counts.

First, the FOMC dropped its forward guidance linking future interest rate hikes to specific levels of unemployment. The guidance had become increasingly irrelevant as…


Added by Daologic on March 24, 2014 at 8:00am — No Comments

Rabobank FX: which way for the JPY?

"Which way for the JPY?

The Ichimoku clouds are providing some supportive evidence for the yen this morning.  EUR/JPY has broken through the confluence of this year's bullish trendline and the top of the…


Added by Daologic on March 21, 2014 at 11:09am — No Comments

TD Securities: USDJPY Set To Go Higher

"JPY will be affected by external factors as BoJ maintains its course Janet Yellen’s debut at the post FOMC meeting press conference yesterday triggered a market reaction that lead to significant moves in the FX space. Half-way through the presser, the JPY had weakened by roughly 1% against the USD since the release of the FOMC statement. Today it has recovered some ground, but it remains under pressure. We view this as a harbinger for the future path of the pair in the near term. Although…


Added by Daologic on March 21, 2014 at 4:19am — No Comments

Rabobank FX: USD/JPY - struggling for strong direction

"USD/JPY – struggling for strong direction

At the start of this year USD/JPY notched a multi-year high in the region of 105.44.  Following a rally through the final two months of last year, the market…


Added by Daologic on March 12, 2014 at 12:07pm — No Comments

BBH CurrencyView: Dollar Firmer As Downside Momentum Fades

"The US dollar is a little better bid today most of the major currencies, as the downside momentum seen last week has faded, and a consolidative phase has emerged.  We suspect it will morph into a deeper correction.  The dollar does not seem to be reflecting some fundamental changes that are taking place.  The euro maybe in a tight range, but it is near 2-year highs and is…


Added by Daologic on March 11, 2014 at 12:05pm — No Comments

BBH MarketView: BOJ in Wait and See Mode; Here is Why

"Japan has reported some disappointing data, but the BOJ is unlikely to move when its 2-day meeting concludes on Tuesday.  Surveys suggest the expectations for additional easing have been pushed from Q2 into Q3.  This will allow officials time to assess the impact of the retail sales tax increase and the ongoing efforts to bolster inflation. …


Added by Daologic on March 11, 2014 at 7:30am — No Comments

BBH CurrencyView: Drivers for the Week Ahead


The week ahead could very well be the most important week of the month.  Four central banks from the high income countries meet, the latest purchasing managers surveys will be released and the latest reading on the US labor market will be announced.…


Added by Daologic on March 3, 2014 at 1:05pm — 1 Comment

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