UBS - "The European Central Bank will be the focus in the week ahead, eclipsing the Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of Canada policy decisions and America's ISM and payrolls releases. The risk of the ECB pursuing negative interest rates or expanding its balance sheet is set to keep the euro trading heavily into the Governing Council meeting. But the franc may incur more volatility in June if the Swiss National Bank matches any ECB decision to cut deposit rates below zero.…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 2, 2014 at 9:30am — No Comments
UBS - "In the week ahead, US April core PCE inflation will show whether the Federal Reserve needs to consider earlier tightening. In contrast, Japan's national CPI release will test the Bank of Japan's resolve to keep its current pace of quantitative easing unchanged and Eurozone M3 money supply is likely to show credit growth remaining too subdued to revive inflation quickly in the Eurozone. The dollar is set to keep gaining as the Federal Reserve tapers its balance sheet expansion while…Continue
UBS - "Financial markets are giving out inconsistent signals. A firmer yen, stronger Treasuries and bunds, weaker Eurozone peripheral bonds and lower stocks point to increased risk aversion. But the Swiss franc is weakening while commodity currencies are stable. The major currencies are more likely still to be driven by shifts in monetary policy. The Federal Reserve is set to keep tapering, helping the dollar recover from this year's lows. The likelihood of European Central Bank easing next…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 19, 2014 at 10:08am — No Comments
UBS - "The dollar continues to trade at weak levels against the euro, pound and Swiss franc as the Federal Reserve is still printing money and buying bonds. In the week ahead the Federal Open Market Committee is likely to taper its asset purchases by another $10bn to $45bn a month. We expect the greenback to rise across the board as the end of quantitative easing comes into sight by the autumn. But this month's FOMC decision may only provide marginal support to the dollar as the Fed will…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 28, 2014 at 9:19am — No Comments
Mario Draghi, Shinzo Abe, Haruhiko Kuroda, Mark Carney and Ben Bernanke* are what I call the Backstreet Boys of the Financial Markets. *Janet Yellen is new and she did nothing ‘till now to deserve a place in this music band.
In the last 2 years, the ECB enjoyed the cheapest monetary policy, thanks to Mario Draghi’s magic words “whatever it takes”. While FED, BoE or BoJ had to print money to “save” their economies, investors bought Europe based on the safety…Continue
UBS - "In the week ahead, Fed Chair Yellen makes two public appearances while US retail sales, CPI inflation, industrial production and the New York and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing surveys are released. The greenback has been held back in Q1'14 by weather-affected data. But the US economy is likely to record stronger prints in Q2'14 as the latest weekly jobless claims numbers show. That will increase the risk of the dollar recovering from its current weak levels. This week's key points…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 14, 2014 at 10:58am — No Comments
UBS - "The foreign exchange markets reacted to America's March employment report by favouring higher-yielding emerging markets and commodity currencies. But US data is unlikely to remain 'not too hot' to spur fears of Federal Reserve tightening and 'not too cold' to raise concerns about the recovery. Instead Friday's payrolls report clearly showed America's economy emerging from the winter slowdown. The Fed is thus on track to finish tapering its bond purchases by the autumn, raising the…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 8, 2014 at 10:37am — No Comments
UBS - "In the week ahead Federal Reserve Chairwoman Yellen appears before Congress and Bank of England Governor Carney will present the February Inflation Report. (...) policymakers in both the US and UK are likely to signal interest rate increases will still only start from next year.
That will temper rallies in the dollar and pound. But we expect the greenback still to outperform this year as the Fed steadily cuts its pace of quantitative easing. The Fed's slowing balance sheet…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 10, 2014 at 9:33am — No Comments
UBS - "The search for inflation is becoming central to currency markets (...) In the week ahead, Canada, Australia and New Zealand all release their latest consumer price indices. The Bank of Canada also meets. We expect no change in policy but a weaker than consensus inflation print will increase expectations the BoC may cut its overnight rate from 1.00% later in the year. Australia's CPI release will also be closely followed after December's weaker than anticipated payrolls report. In…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on January 20, 2014 at 10:31am — No Comments
UBS - "The Federal Reserve meets in the week ahead. The FOMC could surprise by agreeing to taper asset purchases, by revising its forecasts higher as America's fiscal outlook improves, by lengthening its forward guidance to signal interest rates will remain on hold for longer or by cutting the interest the Fed pays on excess reserves held at the central bank. The range of possible outcomes presents upside and downside risks to the dollar in the near term. In the longer-term the strengthening…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on December 16, 2013 at 2:43pm — No Comments
UBS - "In the week ahead, most of the Fed's doves including Chairman Bernanke, New York Fed President Dudley, current FOMC voting members Evans, Rosengren and Bullard, and non-voting FOMC member Kocherlakota - are scheduled to speak. In addition, the October 29-30 FOMC meeting minutes will be released. Together, the upcoming communications will provide more insight into whether policymakers are willing to consider tapering as early as the December 17-18 FOMC meeting.
Added by Francesc Riverola on November 18, 2013 at 12:01pm — No Comments
Goldman Sachs - "UNITED STATES: FOMC
CURRENT SITUATION The Fed funds rate is at 0%-0.25%. The Fed initiated a new round of asset purchases and extended its rate guidance on September 13, 2012.
NEXT MEETING Oct. 30 Dec.18
EXPECTATION We expect the Fed to keep the funds rate near 0% through 2015, and to continue asset purchases until 2Q2014.
JAPAN: BoJ Monetary Policy Board
CURRENT SITUATION The overnight call rate is at 0%-0.1%. The…
UBS - "The new month starts with a high degree of event risk. The US may launch strikes against Syria as early as this weekend. In the week ahead, the European Central Bank, the Banks of Japan, England and Canada, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Riksbank all hold policy meetings. The US August payrolls report is due at the end of the week, and emerging market currencies are likely to face further pressure if America's employment data suggest the Federal Reserve will agree this month to…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 2, 2013 at 9:59am — No Comments
HSBC - "Over the next 10 days the markets will be focusing heavily on the policy meetings of the big four
This week: Fed, BoE, ECB
Next week: BoJ, RBA (We expect 25bp cut), BoE Carney inflation report
For those with a weak constitution look away now, because on top of these policy meetings we have crucial data: US GDP data (important benchmark revisions), ISM, Payrolls
By the end of the week we may have a better understanding of where we stand on the tapering debate. This…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 30, 2013 at 10:25pm — No Comments
UBS - "Several of the world's major currencies are experiencing or are close to important turning points. The dollar is starting to trend higher following Chairman Bernanke's suggestion after the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting that the central bank may taper its asset purchases later this year. Similarly, the yen, despite volatility over the last few weeks, is set to trend lower following the Bank of Japan's decision on April 4 to double the monetary base. Our view that the…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 1, 2013 at 2:50pm — No Comments
Bank of America Merrill Lynch - "Expectations of changes in central bank policies are the largest driver of financial markets this year. Across G10 currencies, RBA rate cuts have weighed on AUD, BoJ QE announcement has driven JPY lower, conjecture of Mark Carney’s actions at BoE has affected GBP, ECB press conferences have created EUR volatility and RBNZ currency overvaluation concerns alongside market intervention have changed opinions on NZD. Now, markets are focused on the Federal Reserve…Continue
UBS - "Currency markets face three key events for the rest of June. The Bank of Japan meets on June 11, under pressure to take further measures to reduce volatility in JGB and stock markets. The Federal Open Market Committee holds its next meeting on June 18-19. Last, on June 27-28 European Union leaders will discuss further steps on banking union, ahead of a critical finance ministers meeting on July 8-9. If the BoJ is able to stem the plunge in the Nikkei, then further speculation about…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 10, 2013 at 10:22am — No Comments
Societé Generale - "If I thought that we were in for calmer times across markets, I would be very, very sorely tempted to come over all yen bearish again, right here and right now. Was $/Y 95 the low for a mini-cycle? The BOJ meeting tomorrow is one of several highlights this week (the German Constitutional Court on Wednesday, Australian employment data Thursday and US retail sales and industrial production data later in the week are others). I doubt they will do much, since the overall…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 10, 2013 at 8:24am — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "Trading FX has been challenging in recent weeks, with a big recovery in JPY and sharp falls in several emerging currencies, and moderate strength in European currencies.
Looking ahead, the US economy will probably continue to display a solid growth outcome. It may not completely break the shackles of fiscal consolidation, but we expect that it will continue to be strong enough to see tapering begin over the next few months and ensure the USD on balance remains…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 3, 2013 at 6:26pm — No Comments
Societé Generale - "Good Morning. Buy the dollar, sell EMFX and sell carry. It isn't about when the Fed “tapers”, it's about too many positions on the same side of the boat and the danger of a capsize.
When the Fed will slow its Treasury purchases will be data-dependent and the Funds rate may be less important in policy-making going forwards. Those are the direct takeaways from the FOMC minutes but the market tells us something different. The prospect of low rates for a long time…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 23, 2013 at 10:04am — No Comments