All Blog Posts Tagged 'BoE' (97)

RBS:Fundamental case for selling EUR vs USD builds


Further fundamental deterioration of EUR vs. USD evident in lower PMI in Europe and stronger PMI in US (high in the Markit series since 2010). Dovish talk from the ECB continues. There will be several Fed speakers this week, they may be less dovish. GBP event risk starts tonight with BoE parliamentary testimony. The risks are for a pull-back in the GBP, but its yield support, trend and solid global risk appetite suggest…


Added by Daologic on June 24, 2014 at 7:06am — No Comments


"Go With the stronger GBP story: currency markets have not yet had sufficient time to re-price the reality that Bank of England is now very likely to run ahead of the Fed vis-à-vis first monetary tightening. The slightly weaker UK Retail Sales data does not change our view on this. Long Cable and long GBP/SEK."

Added by Daologic on June 19, 2014 at 10:03am — No Comments

Rabobank FX: Sell EURGBP on rallies!

"The fact that sterling retains its place at the best performing developed world currency over the past 12 mths reflects the fact that there is a lot of good news priced-in.  Long positions and the tendency for the market to allow itself to be carried away suggest that the pound is likely to be subject to bouts of profit-taking in the months ahead.  That…


Added by Daologic on May 23, 2014 at 8:39am — No Comments

UBS - This week's key points for currencies: ECB speakers to keep euro a sell on rallies

UBS - "Financial markets are giving out inconsistent signals. A firmer yen, stronger Treasuries and bunds, weaker Eurozone peripheral bonds and lower stocks point to increased risk aversion. But the Swiss franc is weakening while commodity currencies are stable. The major currencies are more likely still to be driven by shifts in monetary policy. The Federal Reserve is set to keep tapering, helping the dollar recover from this year's lows. The likelihood of European Central Bank easing next…


Added by Francesc Riverola on May 19, 2014 at 10:08am — No Comments

UBS: BoE and GBP


Exchange rate a factor, but BoE only vigilant on 'persistence'

On balance, the result of the QIR was probably better for sterling longs rather than rate shorts. Although there was an explicit acknowledgement that currency strength was exerting downward pressure on inflation, Carney said the BoE was willing to 'look through' this development for now, and revisit if strength became 'persistent'. In contrast, there was much greater caution on the prospect of a higher base…


Added by Daologic on May 15, 2014 at 5:20am — No Comments

DB: ECB, Boj, BoE

"In a world where the ECB is mulling over cutting rates further and contemplating QE, the Fed being very careful not to frighten the market into expecting rate rises too soon, the BoJ possibly increasing QE by YE, and China considering the need to ease policy, could the BoE today surprise global markets by flagging earlier rate hikes in its quarterly inflation report today? Three months ago Mr Carney effectively signalled the end of specific guidance and moved back to the old fashioned central… Continue

Added by Daologic on May 14, 2014 at 9:56am — No Comments

UBS - This week's key points for currencies: A Key Week For The Dollar

UBS - "The dollar continues to trade at weak levels against the euro, pound and Swiss franc as the Federal Reserve is still printing money and buying bonds. In the week ahead the Federal Open Market Committee is likely to taper its asset purchases by another $10bn to $45bn a month. We expect the greenback to rise across the board as the end of quantitative easing comes into sight by the autumn. But this month's FOMC decision may only provide marginal support to the dollar as the Fed will…


Added by Francesc Riverola on April 28, 2014 at 9:19am — No Comments

RBSM: BoE MPC Minutes - Unanimous votes and no obvious change in signalling


Overall, there is little sense in the April Minutes of any meaningful shift in the MPC's policy bias or signalling. Although the Minutes predate the extraordinarily strong rise in (self) employment in last week's data, we remain sceptical that the MPC will be as dazzled by these figures as the markets seemingly are (we do not believe that self-employment is rising at anything like a 14% annualised rate). Still, the fall in the unemployment rate below the 7% threshold opens the…


Added by Daologic on April 23, 2014 at 11:38am — No Comments

UBS - This week's key points for currencies: FOMC minutes due in the week ahead

UBS - "The foreign exchange markets reacted to America's March employment report by favouring higher-yielding emerging markets and commodity currencies. But US data is unlikely to remain 'not too hot' to spur fears of Federal Reserve tightening and 'not too cold' to raise concerns about the recovery. Instead Friday's payrolls report clearly showed America's economy emerging from the winter slowdown. The Fed is thus on track to finish tapering its bond purchases by the autumn, raising the…


Added by Francesc Riverola on April 8, 2014 at 10:37am — No Comments

UBS FX Comment - Strong Dollar Time


1. Strong payrolls would spark sharp dollar rally

In our view the dollar has reached a major turning point against the

euro. Since the summer of 2012 the single currency has traded from 1.20

to almost 1.40 as the Federal Reserve's third round of quantitative

easing led to its balance sheet expanding while at the same time the

ECB's contracted through banks repaying Longer-Term Refinancing

Operation loans. But the Fed's balance sheet expansion is now…


Added by Daologic on March 31, 2014 at 6:39am — No Comments

Rabobank FX: GBP - how strong is it really?

"GBP – how strong is it really?

The Bank of England tends not to make a habit of talking about sterling.  However, the minutes of the December MPC meeting contained the phrase that “any further…


Added by Daologic on March 24, 2014 at 11:13am — No Comments

UBS FX Comment - Fed Primes Dollar For Major Rally

"1. Strong US data now will lead to sharp dollar rallies

The dollar is primed for a major rally following this month's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The FOMC met expectations by cutting the Fed's pace of asset purchases by another $10bn to $55bn a month. But policymakers surprised on several other counts.

First, the FOMC dropped its forward guidance linking future interest rate hikes to specific levels of unemployment. The guidance had become increasingly irrelevant as…


Added by Daologic on March 24, 2014 at 8:00am — No Comments

TD Global Daily - London Open


UK & Europe…


Added by Daologic on March 19, 2014 at 6:37am — No Comments

RBS:Global Currency Themes for the Week | Yellen's Future Rewrite

"Trading Summary | While the air above is thinning, we hold to our long EUR/USD tactical view. GBP/USD has more upside and this may pressure EUR/GBP lower. European currencies remain favoured over Asia FX as investors chase risk adjusted carry returns in a vol crushed world. Stay with long GBP/JPY as the BoE falls further behind in the Race Not to Tighten First. USD/CAD to trade lower initially as spot catches up with rate spreads.…


Added by Daologic on March 17, 2014 at 7:16am — 1 Comment

BBH CurrencyView: Dollar Firmer As Downside Momentum Fades

"The US dollar is a little better bid today most of the major currencies, as the downside momentum seen last week has faded, and a consolidative phase has emerged.  We suspect it will morph into a deeper correction.  The dollar does not seem to be reflecting some fundamental changes that are taking place.  The euro maybe in a tight range, but it is near 2-year highs and is…


Added by Daologic on March 11, 2014 at 12:05pm — No Comments

BBH CurrencyView: Drivers for the Week Ahead


The week ahead could very well be the most important week of the month.  Four central banks from the high income countries meet, the latest purchasing managers surveys will be released and the latest reading on the US labor market will be announced.…


Added by Daologic on March 3, 2014 at 1:05pm — 1 Comment

BMO FX Weekly - Week ahead - BoC, ECB, twin payrolls and PNC

"Week ahead – BoC, ECB, twin payrolls and PNC…


Added by Daologic on March 3, 2014 at 10:01am — No Comments

RBSM: Global Currency Themes For The Week


What We Learnt Last Week | Inflation pressures are easing across the Euro area economies, but probably not quickly enough to see the ECB cut this week. This supports our "EUR to hit 1.40" call. The Fed's Tarullo and Yellen both raised the issue of financial stability in the context of low rates. Coincidence? Unlikely. The BoE is becoming gradually less ambivalent to GBP strength and the hawks are a long way off voting…


Added by Daologic on March 3, 2014 at 9:27am — No Comments

Rabobank FX: GBP - how much further?

"GBP – how much further?

 Since Bank of England Governor Carney outlined the new forward guidance in the February Inflation Report, a…


Added by Daologic on February 28, 2014 at 10:30am — No Comments

BBH CurrencyView: Tight Ranges, Loose Lips

"The US dollar has been confined to narrow ranges against the major currencies.  The euro, yen, and sterling have traded well within yesterday's ranges.  The dollar bloc was a bit heavier, but the Canadian dollar has fully recovery and the Aussie, nearly so, after disappointing (but dated) Q4 construction figures (-1.0% vs. +0.7% consensus). …


Added by Daologic on February 26, 2014 at 12:11pm — No Comments


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