"EURUSD NEUTRAL Any further recovery will find resistance at 1.3739. A close above this would be a bullish development opening the way to 1.3893. Support is at
1.3562 ahead of 1.3477.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Support is at 100.76 ahead of 99.97. Resistance is at 102.70 ahead of 103.65.
GBPUSD BULLISH Further support developed as the pair advanced sharply and is trading within striking distance of resistance at 1.6878. A break above which would open critical 1.7043. Support is at…
Added by Daologic on February 17, 2014 at 9:38am — No Comments
The AUDUSD maintained a bullish momentum last Friday , bottomed at the 0.8965 levels , and topped at the 0.9043 levels . This development leaves the pair targeting the 0.9066 levels where a breach is likely , If seen , the pair will target the 0.9150 levels , break of 0.9150 will open 0.9280 next, further out will aim the 0.9430 levels.
Alternatively , a failure to hold above the 0.9066 levels , could mean a return to the 0.8965 levels , losing the 0.8965 levels on a daily closing…Continue
Added by Haitham653 on February 17, 2014 at 8:07am — No Comments
"Trading Summary | Stay with stronger EUR/USD as the ECB dithers on easier policy and US data fizzles. With event risk from the BoE Inflation Report now passed, GBP strength can continue. We reaffirm our 1.69 end-Q1 target for GBP/USD, but see increased overshooting risks for the coming month. NOK price action remains constructive, with a move back in line with its traditional drivers ongoing. Further outperformance is likely on a…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 17, 2014 at 7:37am — No Comments
"Dollar Remains Out of Favor
The US dollar fell against all the major currencies over the past week. Helped by speculation that the Bank of England will likely hike rates before it currently envisions, sterling rose to its highest level since…
Added by Daologic on February 17, 2014 at 7:06am — No Comments
"Strategy Desk Comment
Added by Daologic on February 14, 2014 at 1:56pm — No Comments
"Sterling's gains, extending yesterday's rally, are more understandable. Simply put, the market is pricing in risk that the BOE hikes rates earlier than the BOE thinks, though the debt market is consolidating after big moves yesterday. There is a relatively wide premium over Germany for 10-year bonds. The BOE and CBI have revised higher growth forecasts. The 3-year…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 13, 2014 at 12:27pm — No Comments
On AUDUSD we are tracking a five wave rally from 0.8660, now moving up in wave (v), final part of wave C that may complete a flat correction around 0.9080 area. For now, there is room for more upside, but we should be aware of a bearish reversal later in this week. Move beneath 0.8900 will already be the first sign for a turning point.
AUDUSD 4h Elliott Wave Analysis…Continue
Added by Gregor Horvat on February 11, 2014 at 10:27am — No Comments
"Has the AUD bottomed?
In Friday’s Statement on Monetary Policy the RBA revised up its forecasts for both growth and inflation. …Continue
Added by Daologic on February 11, 2014 at 10:10am — No Comments
"The AUD has continued its rising trend since a low made on 24-Jan soon after a weaker than expected Chinese PMI. Since then the AUD/USD has showed resilience to global risk aversion, and was boosted by a switch in RBA outlook for the economy resulting in a higher inflation and GDP forecast and explicit move in its rates policy bias to on hold, suggesting the next move in rates may be up.
The AUD has also shrugged off reports on Tuesday that its last local car manufacturer had…
Added by Daologic on February 11, 2014 at 8:01am — No Comments
Currently we are at 0.8940. We would have liked a deeper retracement to the 0.8900 but …. We are looking for a bullish continuation to the R5 first wave area @ 0.9038. The average daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 101 pips.…Continue
Added by Scott Barkley on February 10, 2014 at 2:24pm — No Comments
AUDUSD has found a support in the past two weeks and rallied more than 300 pips from 0.8650 which can be wave C as part of a flat correction in wave B). The reason is a three wave decline from above 0.9080 that we think it's corrective wave B as a part of a bigger complex correction. If we are on the right track then pair will rise up to 0.9080-0.9170 resistance zone in the next few trading days where a completion of a contra-trend pattern may occur.
AUDUSD Daily Elliott Wave…
Added by Gregor Horvat on February 10, 2014 at 11:22am — No Comments
"RBA was somewhat less dovish as we expected. The details behind the Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) were also more upbeat, consistent with the RBA moving to a neutral stance on rates from a dovish stance. Risks were assessed to be fairly balanced, suggesting that the central bank believes rates are close to having reached a bottom. The RBA hence looks firmly on hold for the time being. Last week’s
much stronger than expected trade data, stability in emerging markets and the shift in…
"EURUSD BEARISH While resistance holds at 1.3639, the risk is for resumption of downtrend as bearish conditions are in place. Support is at 1.3552 ahead of 1.3458.
USDJPY NEUTRAL The latest recovery suggests extension of the broader consolidation phase. Resistance is at 103.10 and 103.65. Support is at 100.76 ahead of 99.97.
As a reaction to the recent sharp sell-off which stalled just above main support at 1.6220, there’s scope for upside in the near-term.…
Added by Daologic on February 10, 2014 at 10:00am — No Comments
AUDUSD has moved even higher in the last few sessions, making move from around 0.8700 an extended which can be an impulse in progress. As such we adjusted the wave count and now looking for complex correction in wave B) called a flat where wave C may reach levels around 0.9080 before contra-trend move from late December can be finished. We will turn bearish against after five waves up in C, or will turn immediately bullish after any fall back below 0.8730.
AUDUSD 4h Elliott Wave…
Added by Gregor Horvat on February 6, 2014 at 10:19am — No Comments
"The Australian trade balance data was much stronger than expected it rose to a surplus of $A468m in Dec from a slight surplus of 83m in Nov, revised up from -118m. Exports rose 4%m/m, imports rose 2%m/m
The Australian retail sales rose 0.5%m/m in Dec as expected, continuing a recent string of moderate rises after 0.7%m/m in Nov. In trend terms sales are up 4.6%y/y in Dec.
In volume terms sales rose 0.9%q/q, below 1.2% expected, although they were revised up from 0.7%…
Added by Daologic on February 6, 2014 at 7:29am — No Comments
EURUSD: Net sold overall and by both hedge funds and asset managers in
particular. Selling pressure intensified after the soft German and
Eurozone inflation reports.
USDJPY: Clearly back in play now. Net flows were flat, but two-way
traffic was the heaviest we have seen since July.
USDCHF: Heavy corporate selling left the pair net sold overall, while
other client segments stuck to the sidelines.
EURCHF: Net buying pressure…
Added by Daologic on February 5, 2014 at 3:05pm — No Comments
As bearish conditions are in place, any recovery should be limited to
resistance at 1.3577. Support is at 1.3400, a break below which would
extend the weakness to 1.3296.
The pair has been consolidating over the past few weeks, and there’s
potential for more downside. Support is at 100.76 ahead of the critical
99.96. Resistance is at 102.41 ahead of 103.44.
As a reaction to the recent sharp sell-off which…
Added by Daologic on February 5, 2014 at 8:37am — No Comments
The AUDUSD maintained a strong bullish momentum yesterday , breached above 0.8915 and topped at the 0.8940 levels. This development leaves the pair targeting the 0.9000 levels , a halt is suggest and seller are likely to dominate the market once again around this level , but break of 0.9015 on a daily basis would open the 0.9115 level , further out will aim the 0.9220 levels.
On the downside , support comes around the 0.8865 levels , a bearish correction is likely to this level before…Continue
90 cents will be an important psychological AUD level for business, the RBA and the market. We see the AUD potentially testing towards this level, but doubt it will sustain moves higher. US data this week may set the tone for the near term, but the market has pushed US yields significantly lower and is now more prepared for weaker data. Fear that Fed taper is undermining EM and US economic confidence may subside if…
The bearish development on Friday was a close below retracement support at 1.3524. This suggests more downside in the near-term with next support at 1.3400 ahead of 1.3296. Resistance is at 1.3573.
USDJPY NEUTRAL The pair has been consolidating over the past few weeks, with support at 101.63 ahead of 99.96. Resistance is at 103.44 ahead of 104.84.
The pair has been correcting and downside should be limited as bullish conditions persist. Strong…
Added by Daologic on February 3, 2014 at 8:56am — No Comments