May 5th 2014. Good morning. So this week we have rate decisions from the UK and Australia, with the latter getting more attention. In Australia we also get employment data and in New Zealand the employment data is quarterly. I find AUDUSD very compelling as a short trade on a longer term perspective and will be watching the rate decision keenly. I am short.
The April US Nonfarm Payrolls report was surprising in several regards – both good and bad. The two main headline…Continue
Added by Gary on May 5, 2014 at 12:20pm — No Comments
“Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first, and then seek to win”. Sun Tzu, The Art of War.
May 2nd. The market is exceptionally quiet and no doubt there is an increase in volatility around the corner but until then it is…Continue
Added by Gary on May 2, 2014 at 10:45am — No Comments
"When offered quick profits, respond with a quick no". - Warren Buffett.
April 29th. Later this week we have a lot of key economic data for the US Dollar which has been searching for a bottom of late. While we may not find the bottom for the US Dollar and…Continue
Added by Gary on April 29, 2014 at 9:18am — No Comments
Outlook in AUDUSD remains neutral with risk to the downside towards the 0.9137 levels , a break would open 0.8995 next . At this point I’d expect strong support from 0.8995/0.9137 levels to contain fall from 0.9460 levels and bring reversal , below 00.8995 will pave the way towards the 0.8889 levels before the next possible rise.
On the upside , resistance comes at the 0.9377 levels ahead of 0.9447 ( main) , stability below resistance levels will keep the pair under pressure , however…Continue
“The composite profile of a losing trader would be someone who is highly stressed and has little protection from stress, has a negative outlook on life and expects the worst, has a lot of conflict in his/her personality, and blames others when things go wrong. Such a person would not have a set of…Continue
Added by Gary on April 24, 2014 at 8:56am — No Comments
“The Trend is your friend except for the end when it bends”. Ed Sekota, Commodities Trader
April 23rd. So here we are back within a stone’s throw of all-time highs on the S&P again. The rally has been impressive and may have something to do with the fact that yield has…Continue
Added by Gary on April 23, 2014 at 10:25am — No Comments
Taken two trades on AUDUSD @ 0.93760 and GBPUSD @ 1.67765 but GBP trade hit at Break even after taken few pips but AUDUSD hit its 1st Target and moved SL @ 0.94163, lets see how it goes now, this trade taken on re-test previous low and respecting trend support line…
Added by Rocky Master on April 11, 2014 at 10:30am — No Comments
"We recommend buying a 3 month 25 delta
Spot reference 0.9375
Strike 0.9050 (25d)
Expiry 3 month (15Jul14)
Cut Tokyo 3pm
Premium 68 USD pips "
Added by Daologic on April 11, 2014 at 6:30am — No Comments
"NZD & AUD: PICKING PEAKS
NZD and AUD outperformed other major currencies in Q1’14.
Momentum divergence on their gains into April suggests that their most recent uptrends are now mature with rising retracement risks.
Breaches of near-term support could trigger some relatively deep pullbacks and dictate directional bias for the current month.
Even if support holds, the maturity of the recent uptrends suggests that new highs are unlikely to be sustained and would be seen as…
Added by Daologic on April 2, 2014 at 10:37am — No Comments
"AUD IS PRIMED FOR A TURN
• Domestic growth surprises will be harder to
• Positive international dynamics are well
priced into the AUD
• Sell AUD/USD with an initial target of
USD0.90 and a stop at USD0.9340
The rally from USD0.86 has been aggressive, but it has priced in US data disappointment, a re-rating of growth in Australia, and some expectations of a policy response from China. A shift in the momentum
of any of these factors will drive a…
Added by Daologic on April 2, 2014 at 5:47am — No Comments
"EURUSD: The pair itself was net sold, but flows through the euro overall
were finely balanced. Hedge fund sellers ran into corporates on the bid.
USDJPY, EURJPY: The yen was net sold in aggregate, but USDJPY flows were
USDCHF, EURCHF: The Swiss franc was net bought, both through EURCHF and
USDCHF. Turnover was only 82% of normal though, and hedge fund…
Added by Daologic on April 1, 2014 at 5:29am — No Comments
The AUDUSD continued its bullish momentum as suggested last week , reached 0.9270 levels and topped a littlie bit above this level at the 0.9295 levels . To resume the upside offensive ; 0.9295 should be taken out , If seen It will target the 0.9447 levels , a halt is strongly suggested and the pair is likely to top around this level , If this resistance fails , expect the pair to strengthen further towards the 0.9622 levels , further upside will aim the 0.9757 levels.
On the downside…Continue
Added by Haitham653 on March 31, 2014 at 6:00am — No Comments
Rebounds off the ‘DEEP RETRACEMENT’ zone of 0.8550-0.8675 seem to be forming a correction, but one that is based upon a slide from 0.9760, rather than the 2012-2013 highs in the 1.06’s.
The current gyration between 0.8900-0.9150 is seen as an inner consolidation. Further slippage to 0.8900 may develop into…
Added by Daologic on March 28, 2014 at 6:48am — No Comments
In light of the fact that the market has sold AUD as a proxy for financial and economic risk in China, and may have been dragged further into these trades by recent weak news from China on both fronts, positioning is short and being squeezed by the slightest whiff of stability in China.
The weaker commodity prices are clearly a drag on income in Australia, exacerbated by a rising AUD that will hit profitability of miners and government revenue; the prospect of which…
Added by Daologic on March 27, 2014 at 7:11am — No Comments
"AUD – flight of fancy?
AUD/USD is currently providing enough interesting signals to fascinate an army of technical analysts. Not only does the 0.9140 area mark the humble 200 day sma, but it also…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 25, 2014 at 11:47am — No Comments
With both the trending and momentum indicators below their respective
moving averages, there’s scope for more downside, with supports at
1.3722 and 1.3664. Resistance is at 1.3858 ahead of 1.3967.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Near-term resistance is at 102.79, a break above this would open 103.76.
Support is at 101.20, a break below this would expose 100.76.
Having tested this morning the support…
Added by Daologic on March 24, 2014 at 9:47am — No Comments
The AUDUSD continued its bullish momentum last week , printed support at the 0.8995 levels . This development leaves the pair targeting the 0.9270 levels , a halt is likely , but break of the 0.9270 levels will turn focus on the 0.9430 levels , further out will aim the 0.9622 levels. Note that stability above the 0.9137 levels will accelerate the expected bullish move.
On the downside , support comes at the 0.8995 levels , stability above this level will keep pushing towards the…Continue
Added by Haitham653 on March 24, 2014 at 6:44am — No Comments
Currently we are at 0.9070 after the bounce north of the trend line. We are looking for a bullish continuation to the R4 .0.618 Fibo area @ 91.25. The average daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 110 pips.…Continue
Added by Scott Barkley on March 21, 2014 at 12:55pm — No Comments
"All tactical and mostly idiosyncratic
After a dismal start to the year, FX volumes appear to be reverting to seasonal
norms, possibly because a few EM themes (Crimea, China) are advancing
more consistently than rather pedestrian G10 ones (US data, Euro area
deflation, Abenomics unraveling). It is too soon in the year – and too
dismissive of the US business cycle – to assume that the dollar will remain
Added by Daologic on March 18, 2014 at 7:02am — No Comments
With bullish conditions in place, there’s more upside potential to test the
critical resistance at 1.4052. Any setbacks in the interim will be corrective
and limited to support at 1.3834 and then 1.3780.
USDJPY NEUTRAL The latest decline was staged from the important resistance at 103.65.
Support is at 101.20 ahead of 100.76. Near-term resistance is at 102.18.
GBPUSD BULLISH The recent setback doesn’t…
Added by Daologic on March 17, 2014 at 7:46am — No Comments