"We recommend buying a 3 month 25 delta
Spot reference 0.9375
Strike 0.9050 (25d)
Expiry 3 month (15Jul14)
Cut Tokyo 3pm
Premium 68 USD pips "
Added by Daologic on April 11, 2014 at 6:30am — No Comments
"NZD & AUD: PICKING PEAKS
NZD and AUD outperformed other major currencies in Q1’14.
Momentum divergence on their gains into April suggests that their most recent uptrends are now mature with rising retracement risks.
Breaches of near-term support could trigger some relatively deep pullbacks and dictate directional bias for the current month.
Even if support holds, the maturity of the recent uptrends suggests that new highs are unlikely to be sustained and would be seen as…
Added by Daologic on April 2, 2014 at 10:37am — No Comments
"AUD IS PRIMED FOR A TURN
• Domestic growth surprises will be harder to
• Positive international dynamics are well
priced into the AUD
• Sell AUD/USD with an initial target of
USD0.90 and a stop at USD0.9340
The rally from USD0.86 has been aggressive, but it has priced in US data disappointment, a re-rating of growth in Australia, and some expectations of a policy response from China. A shift in the momentum
of any of these factors will drive a…
Added by Daologic on April 2, 2014 at 5:47am — No Comments
"EURUSD: The pair itself was net sold, but flows through the euro overall
were finely balanced. Hedge fund sellers ran into corporates on the bid.
USDJPY, EURJPY: The yen was net sold in aggregate, but USDJPY flows were
USDCHF, EURCHF: The Swiss franc was net bought, both through EURCHF and
USDCHF. Turnover was only 82% of normal though, and hedge fund…
Added by Daologic on April 1, 2014 at 5:29am — No Comments
The AUDUSD continued its bullish momentum as suggested last week , reached 0.9270 levels and topped a littlie bit above this level at the 0.9295 levels . To resume the upside offensive ; 0.9295 should be taken out , If seen It will target the 0.9447 levels , a halt is strongly suggested and the pair is likely to top around this level , If this resistance fails , expect the pair to strengthen further towards the 0.9622 levels , further upside will aim the 0.9757 levels.
On the downside…Continue
Added by Haitham653 on March 31, 2014 at 6:00am — No Comments
Rebounds off the ‘DEEP RETRACEMENT’ zone of 0.8550-0.8675 seem to be forming a correction, but one that is based upon a slide from 0.9760, rather than the 2012-2013 highs in the 1.06’s.
The current gyration between 0.8900-0.9150 is seen as an inner consolidation. Further slippage to 0.8900 may develop into…
Added by Daologic on March 28, 2014 at 6:48am — No Comments
In light of the fact that the market has sold AUD as a proxy for financial and economic risk in China, and may have been dragged further into these trades by recent weak news from China on both fronts, positioning is short and being squeezed by the slightest whiff of stability in China.
The weaker commodity prices are clearly a drag on income in Australia, exacerbated by a rising AUD that will hit profitability of miners and government revenue; the prospect of which…
Added by Daologic on March 27, 2014 at 7:11am — No Comments
"AUD – flight of fancy?
AUD/USD is currently providing enough interesting signals to fascinate an army of technical analysts. Not only does the 0.9140 area mark the humble 200 day sma, but it also…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 25, 2014 at 11:47am — No Comments
With both the trending and momentum indicators below their respective
moving averages, there’s scope for more downside, with supports at
1.3722 and 1.3664. Resistance is at 1.3858 ahead of 1.3967.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Near-term resistance is at 102.79, a break above this would open 103.76.
Support is at 101.20, a break below this would expose 100.76.
Having tested this morning the support…
Added by Daologic on March 24, 2014 at 9:47am — No Comments
The AUDUSD continued its bullish momentum last week , printed support at the 0.8995 levels . This development leaves the pair targeting the 0.9270 levels , a halt is likely , but break of the 0.9270 levels will turn focus on the 0.9430 levels , further out will aim the 0.9622 levels. Note that stability above the 0.9137 levels will accelerate the expected bullish move.
On the downside , support comes at the 0.8995 levels , stability above this level will keep pushing towards the…Continue
Added by Haitham653 on March 24, 2014 at 6:44am — No Comments
Currently we are at 0.9070 after the bounce north of the trend line. We are looking for a bullish continuation to the R4 .0.618 Fibo area @ 91.25. The average daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 110 pips.…Continue
Added by Scott Barkley on March 21, 2014 at 12:55pm — No Comments
"All tactical and mostly idiosyncratic
After a dismal start to the year, FX volumes appear to be reverting to seasonal
norms, possibly because a few EM themes (Crimea, China) are advancing
more consistently than rather pedestrian G10 ones (US data, Euro area
deflation, Abenomics unraveling). It is too soon in the year – and too
dismissive of the US business cycle – to assume that the dollar will remain
Added by Daologic on March 18, 2014 at 7:02am — No Comments
With bullish conditions in place, there’s more upside potential to test the
critical resistance at 1.4052. Any setbacks in the interim will be corrective
and limited to support at 1.3834 and then 1.3780.
USDJPY NEUTRAL The latest decline was staged from the important resistance at 103.65.
Support is at 101.20 ahead of 100.76. Near-term resistance is at 102.18.
GBPUSD BULLISH The recent setback doesn’t…
Added by Daologic on March 17, 2014 at 7:46am — No Comments
"Trading Summary | While the air above is thinning, we hold to our long EUR/USD tactical view. GBP/USD has more upside and this may pressure EUR/GBP lower. European currencies remain favoured over Asia FX as investors chase risk adjusted carry returns in a vol crushed world. Stay with long GBP/JPY as the BoE falls further behind in the Race Not to Tighten First. USD/CAD to trade lower initially as spot catches up with rate spreads.…Continue
"FX Set-up: AUD Slips on Risk Off…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 12, 2014 at 11:53am — No Comments
Any setbacks will be viewed as corrective and limited, with supports at
1.3812 and 1.3708. Resistance is at 1.3915, a break above this would
extend the strength to 1.4052.
The important resistance at 103.65 was tested on Friday and a close above
this will be positive, opening the way to 105.44. Support is at 102.48
ahead of 101.20.
GBPUSD BULLISH The recent setback doesn’t change…
Added by Daologic on March 12, 2014 at 6:56am — No Comments
"Minors Attract Inflows
Flows: Reaching for yield
We were net buyers of AUD and NZD last week - the former due to a sudden improvement in domestic economic data, the latter on the likelihood of an imminent RBNZ rate hike. Buying pressure was also seen in sterling and the Nordics, while the Swiss franc suffered the worst of the outflows. In the EM space, the Singapore dollar came under the strongest selling pressure,…
Added by Daologic on March 11, 2014 at 10:00am — No Comments
"Inflows trickling back into AUD
Japanese investors are making a tentative return to Australian bonds markets. That’s the clear message from portfolio flow data released last week, which includes activity up to end-January. That’s quite a reversal of sentiment given Japanese investors spent most of the past 18 months as net AUD sellers. It seems FX valuations have now fallen back to somewhat attractive levels again – low enough to pique investor interest once more. These inflows have…
Added by Daologic on March 11, 2014 at 9:15am — No Comments
Added by Daologic on March 11, 2014 at 8:52am — No Comments
"Trading Summary | We see further upside for EUR/USD and GBP/USD. European currencies are favoured over Asia FX as investors chase risk-adjusted carry returns in a vol crushed world. We believe GBP/JPY has upside on the 'winners and losers in the Race Not to Tighten First' theme. USD/CAD to trade lower initially as spot catches up with rate spreads. However, the medium-term outlook is still one of likely appreciation on ultimately…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 10, 2014 at 7:06am — No Comments