Currently we are at 1.0491. A break of the 1.0500 here would target the resistance cluster @ 1.0530 and then the day top @ 1.0597. We are bullish. The current average daily trading range (ATR) is 62 pips.…Continue
Added by Scott Barkley on April 3, 2013 at 1:01pm — No Comments
National Australia Bank - "The Australian dollar remains above parity, and has strengthened over the past month despite the renewed concerns in Europe. Indeed, the frailties in Europe have seen the Australian dollar almost become a safe haven for investors, with the Trade Weighted Index hitting a 28-year high in March.
The AUD also remains supported by solid demand for Australian financial assets, with net buying of Australian assets in the past six months running at an almost identical…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 3, 2013 at 11:25am — No Comments
Westpac - "AUD/USD: The rapid rebuild of spec long AUD positions since early March hints at waning confidence in broad USD. Commodity prices remain mostly unhelpful for AUD - a story for crosses e.g. NZD and CAD? Local data will need to beat expectations for AUD/USD to spend much time above 1.0500, with 1.04 handle more comfortable.
NZD/USD: The break above 0.8355 puts the kiwi back into positive-trend mode. A quiet local calendar keeps the near term event risk firmly offshore but…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 2, 2013 at 7:14am — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH Strong resistance at 1.2900 and 1.2935 should hold any upside. The risk is for rejection and resumption of weakness. Support is at 1.2751 ahead of 1.2662.
USDCHF BULLISH There is a major support at 0.9429. While this holds on closing basis, there is potential for resumption of strength. Resistance is at 0.9528 ahead of 0.9567.
AUDUSD BULLISH Resistance is at 1.0497, a break above would leave little resistance until 1.0599. Support is at 1.0386 ahead of…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 2, 2013 at 6:58am — No Comments
The AUD/USD maintained bearish momentum the past few day, a short term top has been placed at 1.0496 levels, pressure now will be on the key support 1.0340, losing this level on a daily closing basis will suggest that rise from 1.0114 is finished at 1.0496, If seen , this scenario will pave the way towards 1.0114 levels and even lower..
On the upside, the AUD/USD will have to hold above 1.0496 on a daily closing basis to push the market for further upside gains, If seen, this…Continue
Added by Haitham653 on March 29, 2013 at 1:18pm — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY BULLISH There is a major support at 93.11. While this holds, there is potential for resuming upside. Initial resistance is at 95.12, a break above would open 96.71.
GBPUSD BEARISH The broader bear trend is intact and support focus is at 1.5027, a break below would trigger deeper sell-off to 1.4832. Resistance is at 1.5207 ahead of 1.5269.
USDCHF BULLISH With trending and momentum indicators pointing higher, there is scope for further upside to resistance at 0.9567…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 28, 2013 at 1:00pm — No Comments
Currently we are at 1.0438 after breaking through the uptrend line on the .214 fibo . We could do an abc correction here to the S2 @ 1.0409 A break down here though would target the support @ 1.0409 and then the S3 @ 1.0354. We are bearish. The current average daily trading range (ATR) is 62 pips.…Continue
Added by Scott Barkley on March 27, 2013 at 1:08pm — No Comments
UBS - "USDCHF BULLISH The pair bounced sharply yesterday after testing important support at 0.9359. While this holds on closing basis, there is scope for a move higher to 0.9567.
AUDUSD BULLISH With the trending and momentum indicators pointing north, setbacks will be limited. There is no major resistance until 1.0599. Support is at 1.0333.
USDCAD BULLISH While support at 1.0181 holds, there is scope for resumption of upside. Resistance is at 1.0285 ahead of 1.0342."
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 26, 2013 at 9:12am — No Comments
Rabobank - "The AUD and the CAD have been the best performing G10 currencies on a 1 day view on the back of the bailout deal from Cyprus. These currencies continue to behave as a reasonable litmus test for ‘risk on’ behaviour although the outlook for both have recently been complicated by uncertainties over the direction of domestic central bank policy. We have remained buyers of AUD/USD on dips for months on the premise that as long as the market is awash with liquidity there would be…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 25, 2013 at 10:24am — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH Focus is on the next major support at 1.2662, a break below this would be a bearish development in the long term. Resistance is at 1.2996 ahead of 1.3107.
AUDUSD NEUTRAL Only a closing break above strong resistance at 1.0414 would confirm the recent strength, opening 1.0458 and then 1.0599. Support is at 1.0300.
USDCAD BULLISH The latest strength reinforces the broader bullish theme. A break above 1.0296 would open 1.0366 and then 1.0477A. Support is at 1.0214…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 20, 2013 at 9:39am — No Comments
Westpac - "AUD/USD: Domestic indicators are sufficiently mixed to leave the pair inside a rough 1.02-1.0425 range, with RBA easing probable but not imminent. Commodities are broadly weak, capping gains. Renewed Cyprus/Italy jitters help AUD vs EUR but not vs USD.
NZD/USD: Remains vulnerable to a deeper decline in the near term. The main reasons for this are (a) global risk sentiment has soured a little, (b) the speculative world remains extremely long the NZD, and (c) the drought has…
Societé Generale - "The FX markets are now under the influence of a trilogy of themes: the American economic revival, diverging monetary policy expectations and the (unfinished) euro area (EA) crisis.
Those themes all point in the same direction: a stronger dollar. Dollar strength is now far less dependent on risk conditions; the US economic outperformance and the fears of a not-too-distant Fed exit imply that the dollar is no longer a funding currency of choice in the carry trade. The…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 15, 2013 at 9:11am — No Comments
UBS - "USDCHF BULLISH As long as support at 0.9394 holds, watch for a closing cross higher in momentum tools to signal resumption of strength. Resistance is at 0.9552.
AUDUSD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.0357 ahead of 1.0414. Support is at 1.0267 ahead of 1.0202.
USDCAD BULLISH As long as support at 1.0186 holds, there is scope for a break above resistance at 1.0296, opening 1.0366. Near-term support is at 1.0235."
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 13, 2013 at 8:35am — No Comments
Currently we are at 1.0320. We looking now for the continuation first to the R4 @1.0350 area then the 1.0383 target. The overall target up is 1.0411. The current average daily trading range (ATR) is 76 pips.…Continue
Added by Scott Barkley on March 12, 2013 at 1:18pm — No Comments
ANZ - "· Look to re-instigate AUD/NZD longs at 1.2440, targeting a move to 1.2650. Set a stop at 1.2330 (we took profit on our long AUD/NZD trade at 1.2470, instigated 19 February at 1.2240)
· In New Zealand the risks look poised to the downside as the market focuses on the developing drought, and on Thursday’s RBNZ MPS.
· By contrast, Australian data this week is likely to exhibit strength, with the NAB Survey likely to reflect gains seen in the AiG survey, and February employment…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 12, 2013 at 10:49am — No Comments
National Australia Bank - "We have changed are rate cut call to two 25 bps cuts for a cumulative 50bps, from our previous forecast of a cumulative 75bps cut. We still see a case for significantly easier monetary policy ahead but acknowledge there have been early signs that lower interest rates are already getting some traction in housing and equity markets, plus the RBA’s expressed ‘comfort’ with current activity, and finally that wholesale funding costs have fallen recently. Given these…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 12, 2013 at 10:40am — No Comments
Danske Bank - "EUR/USD SHORT AT 1.3043 FOR 1.2886 OBJECTIVE, STOP 1.3102 S4 1.2886 S3 1.2955 S2 1.2980 S1 1.3007; R1 1.3054 R2 1.3080 R3 1.3102 R4 1.3135
USD/CHF LONG AT .9472 FOR .9609; STOP AT .9389 S4 .9389 S3 .9410 S2 .9454 S1 .9466 R1.9503 R2 .9528 R3 .9552 R4 .9609
AUD/USD BUY AT 1.0270 FOR 1.0375; STOP AT 1.0228 S4 1.0155 S3 1.0182 S2 1.0202 S1 1.0228 R1 1.0341 R2 1.0375 R3 1.0400 R4 1.0416"
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 12, 2013 at 10:35am — No Comments
Westpac - "FX: Strategy Views
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 11, 2013 at 10:55am — No Comments
National Australia Bank - "Key trade ideas: The USD could extend its gains in the post NFP report mood, leading to a 1.2750-1.3310 EUR/USD range. Trade this.
Our sell recommendation on AUD/USD at 1.0330 remains in place but it may take some significant upside surprises in the coming week’s business and consumer confidence surveys or Thursday’s employment report to offer us the entry level.
We remain committed AUD/NZD bears over the medium term. Though our short established at…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 11, 2013 at 10:40am — No Comments
Westpac - "AUD Bias: The global appetite for USD despite aggressive Fed QE and a sluggish US economy makes it tough for AUD/ USD to break above 1.0380. Key commodity prices also remain unimpressive regardless of China property scares. The domestic story is mixed, not soft enough for the RBA to deliver on its easing threat but enough for markets to keep leaning towards at least one more cash rate cut. But underlying demand for risk assets is persistent (MS Asia-Pac shares at…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 7, 2013 at 5:00pm — No Comments