Currently we are at 94.02 after the break north of the ascending wedge. This is a 2 part trade opportunity. 1) We are looking for a bullish continuation to the R/5 .03820 Fibo area @ 94.55 and 2) the next target is @ 95.06. The average daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 89 pips.…Continue
Added by Scott Barkley on November 6, 2013 at 1:57pm — No Comments
Currently we are at 93.81 after the bounce north. We are looking for a bullish continuation after the resistance break to the R/5 .0382 Fibo area @ 94.50. The average daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 89 pips.…Continue
Added by Scott Barkley on November 4, 2013 at 2:00pm — No Comments
Bank of America Merrill Lynch - "Last week, we recommended buying AUD/USD as a short-term opportunity with the delay in Fed tapering and fiscal risks likely to be supportive for carry trades (Buy now, but don't get carried away). Our flows suggested that longer term investors were still relatively short AUD, adding to the near-term upward pressure on the currency. We recommended buying a 2m 0.9750 call against selling 2x 0.9900 calls. Despite the recent fall in the AUD - in our view, due to…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on October 25, 2013 at 9:03am — No Comments
Currently we are @ 87.86 in a determined march to the top of the trend. A break above the .500 Fibo @87.94 would creat an opportunity to the 88.50 area. The current average (14day) ATR is 121 pips.…Continue
Added by Scott Barkley on August 29, 2013 at 1:19pm — No Comments
US stocks reversed lower yesterday during Asian session which interestingly did not impact any other markets. Normally we would see a sell-off also on commodities and XXX/USD pairs as well, but maybe it will happen with a delay. On the S&P Futures we can see nice minor impulsive reversal lower, which we think it’s a first leg of a minimum three waves down. We expect to see fall to 1600 area in coming sessions.
S&P Futures 30min…
Added by Gregor Horvat on July 2, 2013 at 7:56am — No Comments
JP Morgan - "The retracement from the May low for USD/JPY suggests a growing risk that the underlying medium term trend is back on track. Note this follows the effective test and hold of the key 93.50/93.90 support zone. This area includes the 38.2% retracement from September low, as well as the 76.4% retracement from the February low. Importantly, a sustained break above the key 99.30/101.30 resistance zone should confirm a deeper extension and closer test of the May highs in line with the…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 1, 2013 at 5:38pm — No Comments
Aud.Jpy is on the path as mentioned on yesterday comment. Things are on the way to hit our 1st target @ 97, we can have second target 96.50 – 96.20 area. my recommendation is to book 80% @ 97 and leave 20% for 96.20. If you are in both trades, your avg entry will be 100.325, and so you should have more than 332 pips in profit @ 97.…Continue
Aud/Jpy is in final stage of it’s triangle formation. Once pattern is complete, a person can expect a sharp thrust off towards it’s initial target of previous wave 4. For more details of target, kindly visit my previous posts.
Recommendation: short can be build up slowly here
100.85 – ⅓ position…
Westpac - "AUD/JPY is likely to be volatile in coming months. Our base case is for a pullback to around 98-99 over the next month as the BoJ doesn’t announce any new easing measures and investment outflows from Japan remain patchy. By mid-2013 however there is likely to be renewed upward pressure on AUD/JPY, with scope for 107/108, as BoJ easing in full swing encourages Japanese life insurers and others to invest abroad. To reinforce the potential volatility, we look for AUD/JPY to fall back…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 1, 2013 at 8:00am — No Comments
Quick update, This pair was working well as per last few posts. A risk can be lower down to 102.60, if 102.60 not hold, we might see a new high above 102.90.
Written by: …Continue
A pair had a top on 105.4. From top, we are in larger wave 4. Last drop was impulse drop and can be counted a first wave in zigzag correction – A. There is very less chance of considering that wave as part of larger impulse move i.e. 1 (marked with red color), but having the probability, I keep that in my daily chart. On 240 min chart, price is well between in the channel, and depend on today close, we find reversal pattern on daily chart.…Continue
Added by FxMind on April 22, 2013 at 8:58am — No Comments
Societé Generale - "EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY technical patterns show that the consolidation period is coming to an end, and the pairs are likely to move to the upside soon. The EUR is a bit cheap from a PCA view, suggesting a short covering is possible, but the strongest signal is long AUD/USD and EUR/SEK. Our systems are currently sending softer signals but remain long USD, AUD and NZD and short EUR, GBP, JPY and NOK."
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 7, 2013 at 9:08am — No Comments
As far as current price action, it’s on track as per my last post. Below 240min chart, showing cycle / wave A on larger degree completed, and can expect wave B here. This move also can be counted impulsive for final wave 5 on daily and weekly chart, and…Continue
JP Morgan - "The JPY has room to extend its latest gains within its broader 4th wave recovery
Given the break below first Fib.-support at 119.41 (minor 38.2 %) in EUR/JPY we see additional downside to 117.25 (38.2 % on higher scale) where the market would offer the perfect risk-reward to bet on a still missing 5th wave advance towards 132.04 (50 %). Similar setups are given in USD/JPY and in various JPY-Crosses where we see good JPY selling opportunities against 89.78 and 88.78/04 (int.…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 4, 2013 at 12:01pm — No Comments
JP Morgan - "USD/JPY targets have been raised to 94 for Q1, 97 for Q2 and Q3, and 96 for Q4. The main driver of JPY weakness has been an “inflation expectations bubble” spurred by unrealistically high hopes for Abenomics. We expect the JPY will continue to decline in trade-weighted terms, but in a choppy fashion. In particular, investors are likely to be disappointed by the modest outcome we expect from the BoJ’s April 4 meeting (the first under the new Governor and Deputy…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 26, 2013 at 11:09am — No Comments
Westpac - "While AUD has looked tired on some crosses lately, USD/JPY resilience suggests it is too early to call a top in AUD/JPY. Potential investor disappointment over the BoJ meeting mid-Feb could see a pullback to 93.00/50 but then the pair should resume its upswing towards 96.50/97.00. By H2 2013 however, the pair is likely to be considerably lower, mostly due to USD/JPY reversal.
(...) AUD/JPY has left behind all major moving averages. Potential technical resistance lies at 96.45…
Added by Francesc Riverola on January 31, 2013 at 10:44am — No Comments
But is it real? Currently we are at 93.79 and sitting above the .382 Fibo. There is also a day chart trend line here so a false breakout and then a bounce on the Day chart line is possible. The target area up is the R5@ 95.03 and the Down target is the .618 Fibo @ 92.67. The average daily trading range (ATR) is 111 pips.…Continue
Added by Scott Barkley on January 22, 2013 at 1:42pm — No Comments
JP Morgan - "Medium-term technical view: The bearish action for JPY since November has confirmed a broad-based medium term shift. Importantly, the break of several critical levels against the USD and for the crosses argues for a continuation of this trend in the coming weeks. The highlight of the bearish framework is the extension above the 84.20/85.55 resistance zone (2012/2011 highs) for USD/JPY. The subsequent price action affirmed the medium term base breakout and renewed trending bias.…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on January 21, 2013 at 11:35am — No Comments
Currently we are at 94.14 and breaking into a nice area. The target area up is the 5th wave R4@ 94.80 then 94.95. The average daily trading range (ATR) is 98 pips.…Continue
Added by Scott Barkley on January 17, 2013 at 1:36pm — No Comments
HSBC - Key trade: Buy AUD-JPY
Entry: 94.26 Target: 99.30 Stop: 91.70
We see three factors driving AUD-JPY higher in the short-term
1) A risk-on mood bolstered by dovish Fed speakers
2) AUD upside on the back of stronger than expected China data
3) Ongoing JPY weakness in the run-up to BoJ meeting.
Added by Francesc Riverola on January 11, 2013 at 5:29pm — No Comments