Westpac - "AUD/JPY is likely to be volatile in coming months. Our base case is for a pullback to around 98-99 over the next month as the BoJ doesn’t announce any new easing measures and investment outflows from Japan remain patchy. By mid-2013 however there is likely to be renewed upward pressure on AUD/JPY, with scope for 107/108, as BoJ easing in full swing encourages Japanese life insurers and others to invest abroad. To reinforce the potential volatility, we look for AUD/JPY to fall back…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 1, 2013 at 8:00am — No Comments
Societé Generale - "EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY technical patterns show that the consolidation period is coming to an end, and the pairs are likely to move to the upside soon. The EUR is a bit cheap from a PCA view, suggesting a short covering is possible, but the strongest signal is long AUD/USD and EUR/SEK. Our systems are currently sending softer signals but remain long USD, AUD and NZD and short EUR, GBP, JPY and NOK."
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 7, 2013 at 9:08am — No Comments
As far as current price action, it’s on track as per my last post. Below 240min chart, showing cycle / wave A on larger degree completed, and can expect wave B here. This move also can be counted impulsive for final wave 5 on daily and weekly chart, and…Continue
JP Morgan - "The JPY has room to extend its latest gains within its broader 4th wave recovery
Given the break below first Fib.-support at 119.41 (minor 38.2 %) in EUR/JPY we see additional downside to 117.25 (38.2 % on higher scale) where the market would offer the perfect risk-reward to bet on a still missing 5th wave advance towards 132.04 (50 %). Similar setups are given in USD/JPY and in various JPY-Crosses where we see good JPY selling opportunities against 89.78 and 88.78/04 (int.…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 4, 2013 at 12:01pm — No Comments
JP Morgan - "USD/JPY targets have been raised to 94 for Q1, 97 for Q2 and Q3, and 96 for Q4. The main driver of JPY weakness has been an “inflation expectations bubble” spurred by unrealistically high hopes for Abenomics. We expect the JPY will continue to decline in trade-weighted terms, but in a choppy fashion. In particular, investors are likely to be disappointed by the modest outcome we expect from the BoJ’s April 4 meeting (the first under the new Governor and Deputy…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 26, 2013 at 11:09am — No Comments
Westpac - "While AUD has looked tired on some crosses lately, USD/JPY resilience suggests it is too early to call a top in AUD/JPY. Potential investor disappointment over the BoJ meeting mid-Feb could see a pullback to 93.00/50 but then the pair should resume its upswing towards 96.50/97.00. By H2 2013 however, the pair is likely to be considerably lower, mostly due to USD/JPY reversal.
(...) AUD/JPY has left behind all major moving averages. Potential technical resistance lies at 96.45…
Added by Francesc Riverola on January 31, 2013 at 10:44am — No Comments
JP Morgan - "Medium-term technical view: The bearish action for JPY since November has confirmed a broad-based medium term shift. Importantly, the break of several critical levels against the USD and for the crosses argues for a continuation of this trend in the coming weeks. The highlight of the bearish framework is the extension above the 84.20/85.55 resistance zone (2012/2011 highs) for USD/JPY. The subsequent price action affirmed the medium term base breakout and renewed trending bias.…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on January 21, 2013 at 11:35am — No Comments
HSBC - Key trade: Buy AUD-JPY
Entry: 94.26 Target: 99.30 Stop: 91.70
We see three factors driving AUD-JPY higher in the short-term
1) A risk-on mood bolstered by dovish Fed speakers
2) AUD upside on the back of stronger than expected China data
3) Ongoing JPY weakness in the run-up to BoJ meeting.
Added by Francesc Riverola on January 11, 2013 at 5:29pm — No Comments
Westpac - "We have been surprised by the extent of the recent AUD/JPY rally but see signs of fatigue. Our base case is for a pullback from the low 86s near term to 84 by year end. Factors to weigh on the pair include a likely RBA rate cut next week and eventual disappointment over what Japan LDP leader Abe can actually deliver in terms of JPY weakness."
Added by Francesc Riverola on November 28, 2012 at 11:25am — No Comments
National Bank of Australia - "Since being short yen has, along with short euro, proved to be a widow-maker for many a macro trader in the past year or more, it does not appear that short yen positioning is significant, notwithstanding the recent run up from sub-Y79 to above Y82. As such, if current expectations for a LDP victory, even if not with an outright majority, continue to…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on November 22, 2012 at 8:44am — No Comments
National Australia Bank - "We look to buy EUR/USD at 1.2640 for a recovery to 1.29/1.30. Stop 1.2480. We accept in the current environment any sizeable relief rally may be some weeks away, possibly resulting in 1.2630-1.28 range trading."
AUDNZD 1-3 month target: 1.24-1.26; 6-12 month target: 1.22-1.24
AUDEUR ￼1-3 month target: 0.75-0.77; 6-12 month target: 0.72-0.75
AUDGBP ￼1-3 month target: 0.62-0.63; 6-12 month target: 0.61-0.62
AUDJPY 1-3 month target: 82-80; 6-12…
Added by Francesc Riverola on November 12, 2012 at 11:15am — No Comments
The Japanese yen firmed against the Australian dollar during the final European trading day of the week. The AUD/JPY price initial jumped following release of the best US consumer sentiment reading in five years, then fell 40 pips to the 80 level before the London close.
Seeking 1-on-1 mentoring?…Continue
Added by Curt Wehrley on October 12, 2012 at 10:06pm — No Comments
The 5 minute entry now on for over 24 hours, and it is in the money. The reversal is in the cards, for now...
Now that the deal is on, it is a question of management, which means exiting at the best possible…
Added by Jason Justin Macko on September 28, 2012 at 12:00am — No Comments
Danske Bank - "AUD/JPY - Building for a break above 83.05/55 for 85.25/88.60
Summary - Buy for gains through 83.05/84.55, towards 88.60. Place a stop under 79.55/70.
MSCI EM Index - The 18-month trendline break may fuel an advance
Strategy Summary - Look to buy upon dips towards 1000, for a rally to 1085 and then towards the 1173-1212 region. Place an initial stop below 950."
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 24, 2012 at 10:00am — No Comments
Westpac - "The Bank of Japan has lent fresh support to otherwise range-bound AUD/JPY. The pair looks to be a buy on dips multi-week, targeting a test of 84, with a stretch target of 84.70/80. Dips to the mid-81s are likely to be driven by concerns over China and the prospect of RBA easing in Q4, perhaps as soon as Oct. A broadly positive global risk environment should underpin the pair overall."
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 19, 2012 at 1:54pm — No Comments
National Australia Bank - AUD Crosses
1-3 month target: 1.24-1.29
6-12 month target: 1.26-1.22
1-3 month target: 0.78-0.81
6-12 month target: 0.71-0.75
1-3 month target: 0.62-0.65
6-12 month target: 0.60-0.61
1-3 month target: 81-80
6-12 month target: 81-82
1-3 month target: 0.6300-0.6700
6-12 month target:…
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 3, 2012 at 9:30pm — No Comments
Logical opportunities for currency traders to hit the buy button materialized on multiple major currency pairs during today's New York morning trading session. Cable stole the spotlight with a 120-pip rally which started soon after the U.S. equity market open.
Added by Curt Wehrley on August 11, 2012 at 2:34am — No Comments
Many investors that try to decipher market flows and attempt to understand the way money moves in and out of this or other markets are likely to, at one point or another, refer to the correlation between equities and currencies.
I can tell you that before U.S. rates went into the dumper the USD/JPY correlation was one of the industry’s standard “go-to” points in terms of monitoring future movements. At my former hedge fund, equity analysts were regularly peering into the…Continue
Added by Steve W on May 19, 2011 at 12:30pm — No Comments