"AUD is likely to squeeze out shorts and may rise to .92/93
As discussed in recent reports, the Australian economic data has been much stronger than expected over the last week. The RBA Governor has attempted to discourage the AUD from rising by saying it is historically high. He repeated that today to parliament. However, he has been reluctant to say more.
He has emphasised that the RBA currently expects a long period of stable rates. In fact he has suggested…
Added by Daologic on March 7, 2014 at 6:44am — No Comments
Sell EURAUD at 1.5330
Target of 1.45; Stop of 1.5510
"The ECB is not easing but it’s not tightening for a long time either. Meanwhile, better Australian data point to more focus on RBA policy prospects (we expect rates to move up late this year). Narrowing spreads risk pulling EURAUD sharply lower through the balance of the year and technical signals point to a possible trend reversal. Sell into modest EURAUD gains from here."
Added by Daologic on March 7, 2014 at 6:27am — No Comments
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LONG EUR above 1.3830 SL 1.3815 TP 1.3870-1.3890-1.3910-1.3925
SHORT EUR below 1.3925 SL 1.3950 TP…Continue
"Two weeks back we highlighted why we thought the AUD/NZD had hit a trough. Having been NZD bulls for more than a year, we believed the NZ curve had well and truly priced for RBNZ rate hikes, reflecting New Zealand’s above trend growth, falling unemployment rate, and rising inflation. 12m OIS is currently priced for 115bps of rate hikes this year which is above TD’s forecast for the RBNZ to hike rates 100bps to 3.5% over the course of this year. Our view is that the RBNZ delivering on the…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 7, 2014 at 6:17am — No Comments
"The Australian trade balance jumped from $A597mn in Dec to $A1,433m in Jan, a high since Aug-2011, much above $A100m expected. Exports rose 4%m/m, rising solidly across all goods categories, whiles services exports fell 1%m/m. Imports rose 1%m/m (the imports number was held down by a 9% fall in capital goods imports, while intermediate and other goods imports rose 9%, and consumption goods and services imports rose 1%m/m).
Retail sales trend estimate rose 0.7%m/m in Jan (annualised at…
Added by Daologic on March 6, 2014 at 6:46am — No Comments
EUR has tested 1.3700 support yesterday, but couldn't progress over 1.3750, finally closed the day close to 1.3730. Worse US data din't not affect the price at all, market completely ignored that and all eyes are on the ECB for today. If we are not able to progress over 1.3770 today, the pair will become under a heavy selling pressure with targets around 1.3600 and maybe below.Only above 1.3770 we shall try to reach 1.3825-30 which has rejected the price several times. If that is broken too…Continue
"FX Set-up: AUD Firmer on GDP, EURAUD in Play
The AUD is the top-performer on the session…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 5, 2014 at 12:28pm — No Comments
EUR is still consolidating below 1.3770. All are waiting for the next move from the ECB. Closing today below 1.3730 will make bulls' situation even more complex. Traders still avoid going SHORT and are very careful. Today more of the same can be expected with testing 1.3700 and 1.3770, which are the support and resistance levels. We have to wait for the ECB next move to see a breaking out of this range.
GOLD bounced back by the Weekly resistance 1354 and tested 1331 support area. For…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on March 5, 2014 at 6:10am — No Comments
"AUD/NZD – contrasting fortunes
As expected, following its overnight policy meeting the RBA reiterated the message that it is on course for a period of steady rates. The outlook, however, was tainted by its…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 4, 2014 at 10:30am — No Comments
"Growth pricing more important than risk appetite
European stock markets had a difficult trading session on Monday, but risk aversion did not appear to be widespread. Commodity bloc currencies all ended the session on a high note, and barring wider geopolitical stress, we suspect value hunters will make their presence felt. Nonetheless, like our EM Strategy's view on EMFX, we would advise against addition to positioning on valuations alone – growth has to deliver.…
Added by Daologic on March 4, 2014 at 7:30am — No Comments
EUR moved in a narrow range yesterday until american serrion, then it slided a little more on better US data and is currently trading near the well known support of 1.3720. We were not able to close the day below that support so the chances of recovery to the upside still present. Upside will be restored on H4 close above 1.3770 with first resistance 1.3830 and second one 1.3890. I expect the pair to find support at 1.3720 and at 1.3700 and finally 1.3670 in the next 2-3 days. Only breaking…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on March 4, 2014 at 6:02am — No Comments
When demonstrators flooded the street of Kiev in December to protest against the President’s spurning of a deal which would…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 3, 2014 at 10:30am — No Comments
"Big Week Ahead
(In thin pre-Asian activity, the dollar and yen are gaining against the other major currencies in the immediate reaction to weekend…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 3, 2014 at 6:47am — No Comments
"EUR: Final PMI (Mar 3/5, 08:55 GMT)
The final February PMIs for Eurozone and Germany are expected to remain unchanged from the flash estimates for both the manufacturing and services sectors.
AUD: RBA Decision/Stevens Testimony (Mar 4/6)
The RBA is likely to hold rates (as Stevens testifies to the HoR), but key is their reaction to capex intentions which imply a cliff – especially given their recent move to a 'neutral' bias indicating likely…
Added by Daologic on March 3, 2014 at 6:41am — No Comments
"IMM data for the week of February 25th showed speculators cutting overall exposure to the USD back a little further; the aggregate USD position dropped to a total of USD13.7bn against the major currencies in the week, the lowest aggregate long USD exposure since early November.
Investors are a little more constructive on the EUR—a trend that may extend after Eurozone data dampened speculation of more ECB easing at next week’s policy meeting. Net EUR longs rose to total +13.9k…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 3, 2014 at 6:30am — No Comments
EUR opened today's session with a huge downside gap. The price has tested the support at 1.3750 where buyers appeared and took the price back to 1.3780-90 resistance area. This will be the first resistance for today and the second one will be 1.3824. If we fail to record a new high today then a powerful downside move will appear. In all this bullish picture something doesn't seem right. If you look at Daily chart you can see the area 1.3810-30 is quite powerful resistance it bounced back…Continue
EUR recovered almost all losses yesterday after Mrs.Yellen's statement that FED needs to see the economic impact of the bad weather before continuing with further tapering. This caused an immediate dollar drop against amlost all currencies. However the price made some pullback this morning to 1.3700 and currently is trading around it. Today's Germany's retail sales and EU's HICP will determine further EUR movement. Technically the pair is supported by 1.3670-85 support area and it is…Continue
"In recent publications, our Asia-Pac colleagues have declared that a trough should be in place for AUDNZD, making the move over the last week, or more specifically the last couple of trading sessions, appearing that much more unsustainable. Our models show that the move lower in AUDNZD was beyond what could be explained by rate or equity differentials over the last week. And even though NZ data surprises outperformed those of Australia over the last week (as Aussie surprises turned negative…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 28, 2014 at 5:50am — No Comments
USD may weaken broadly in a renewed environment of yield chase evident in falling global bond yields, strong US equities and sharply falling Greek bond yields. The market still faces significant flashpoints for risk aversion (Ukraine, Turkey and Thailand, Chinese property market and deflation risk in Europe), but it is tending to shrug these off.
Added by Daologic on February 28, 2014 at 5:20am — No Comments
"Developments in Russia and Ukraine are continuing to drive risk aversion today, with European equities down around –1.0% across the board, and the USD and JPY outperforming in G10 FX markets. On the other end of the spectrum, AUD has continued to struggle on the back of softer CapEx data overnight, while EURUSD has slipped down to the…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 27, 2014 at 11:31am — No Comments