All Blog Posts Tagged 'AUD' (386)

FOREX forecast 20.10.2014-24.10.2014

EUR slowly looses positions from last Wednesday's upside jump and is trading currently at the 1.2750 support. Next stronger support is at 1.2700, for which i ecpect to hold and the recovery to continue to 1.2900 and above. However if for some reason we have a Daily close below 1.2700, this will reopen the way back to 1.2540 and below. This week we do not have any so much important news, except PMI data on Thursday and US jobless claims later the same day.

GOLD is locked within the…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on October 20, 2014 at 5:15am — No Comments

FOREX forecast 13.10.2014-17.10.2014

EUR was unable to reach 1.2350 weekly target as the last downside push has been stopped by the 1.2500 level. A powerful recovery followed reaching 1.2800. Currently we are above the main daily support @ 1.2650 and seems the recovery is going to continue with first target 1.2730 and second one at 1.2800 finally 1.3000. However it is too early to say that any downside is over as the daily indicators are showing unstable recovery. Today is a non-working day for USA, Canada and Japan, markets…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on October 13, 2014 at 5:33am — No Comments

FOREX forecast 06.10.2014-10.10.2014

EUR closed another week at the lowest price with still absolutely no signs of recovery. Seems that the target is the Monthly SMA200 at 1.2220, but the pair may even try an attempt to go below. I doubt it will succeed. This week's target will be 1.2350. Daily resistance is 1.2690 and the pair has no chances of breaking it higher. EUR is now extremely bearish as all bulls are dead and the dollar makes more gains after a lot better than expected NFP data. There is no so important data releases…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on October 6, 2014 at 5:15am — No Comments

The TREND Trader-Majors

EURUSD

Trend: Bearish

Strenght: Strong

Start of the downtrend: 1.3655

Macro: The diverging stance between FED and ECB. FED has started to tighten the monetary conditions since the start of tapering process. ECB has eased the monetary conditions. This conditions will persist untill the inflation in the EZ will start to revive to ECB commfort levels (2-3%).

Correction: There have been no correction yet. I wait for a correction to sell EURUSD.

Potential…

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Added by Daologic on October 4, 2014 at 6:00am — 11 Comments

RBS: Trading strategy-29 Sept.

"Negative nominal rates are a powerful medium-term EUR negative and markets aren't trading like EUR/USD positioning is stretched. Stay short as a confirmed break of 1.2671 could lead to an early test of multi-year lows. While GBP/USD should also fall, short EUR/GBP looks a more compelling monetary policy divergence play. RBNZ Governor Wheeler's talk of possible currency intervention is significant and supports our view that NZD/CAD falls further. We add short AUD/CAD as iron ore prices are…

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Added by Daologic on September 29, 2014 at 7:49am — No Comments

FOREX forecast 29.09.2014-03.10.2014

EUR has continued the free fall which started nearly 10 weeks ago. News from the EU and ermany are continuous worse and worse while over the Atlantic Mrs.Yellen continues to reduce the stimulus program. From the other side seems that 1000 pips were not enough for the big players to take their profit and they continued to sell EUR. Are they brave enough to bring the price to 1.2210? Technically this is not impossible. This price is the monthly SMA200 line and it is a good target. This monthly…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on September 29, 2014 at 5:12am — No Comments

RBS:Downside risks mount for AUD

"Viewpoint

Softer US data and broader concerns over a weaker global economic outlook, apparent in weaker commodities and equities, may contribute to the first significant retracement in the USD/JPY after its rapid month-long rally. The EUR may also benefit from reluctance by the ECB to take further easing steps at this time after the limited response to its first LTRO last week. Fears of the…

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Added by Daologic on September 23, 2014 at 5:02am — No Comments

Forex forecast 22.09-26.09.2014

EUR continues free fall and indicators on H4, Daily and Weekly are extremely bearish. Seems that still noone is going to take profit from Short, and this tells me that more slide is to come. Today mr.Draghi will speak, but tomorrow will be the PMI data release and if it is weak again EUR will possibly drop below 1.2805 support. On Wednesday we shall have the Germany's IFO which is expected to be worse than previous too. On Thursday the most important news will be the US jobless claims report…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on September 22, 2014 at 4:30am — 2 Comments

FOREX forecast 16-19.09.2014

EUR is in a consolidation mode again before the next slide down. Possible support that will stop the downside is 1.2600 and the final one is around 1.2300 but i doubt we shall reach there soon. There was a large amount of unexpected bad EUR news and it seems the things over the Atlantic are getting a lot better. It is expected the FED to make another stimulus cut from 25 bln to 15 bln. This will push the EUR even lower till the end of this week. Today is expected the Gernamy's ZEW to be a…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on September 16, 2014 at 5:30am — 3 Comments

FOREX forecast 09.09.2014

EUR continues the free fall and nothing seems to stop it. Target is set to 1.2805 and even below to 1.2765. Correction higher is needed, but still noone takes any profit, this means they expect more drop.Correction will start once we have over 60 pips upside H4 candle. Indicators on all time frames except M5 and M15 are extremely bearish. Maybe today we shall see some profit taking.

GOLD again is hit by the strong dollar and reached the support area 1254. If we don't see any EUR…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on September 9, 2014 at 6:28am — No Comments

FOREX forecast 01.09.2014

Deeper and deeper EUR goes with another gap lower opening week. Finally the big players sold the EUR they have since close to 1.4000 levels. Where EUR is going to stop - it is not clear yet, but somewhere around 1.3066 we have a support area. We are currently some 200 pips below the weekly Senkou Span B price of the positive Ichimoku,however we have broken it lower too early and we have to make some significant correction higher before this break to be confirmed. The dollar is extremely…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on September 1, 2014 at 5:06am — 3 Comments

TD:CFTC Commitments of Traders Report - Week Ending Tuesday, August 26th

"CFTC data for currency futures through the week ending August 26th showed that investors and speculative accounts continue to bet big on an…

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Added by Daologic on September 1, 2014 at 4:42am — No Comments

FOREX forecast 25.08.2014

EUR dropped to 1.3185 this morning and opened the week with a huge downside gap. Today the pair may consolidate around 1.3200, and tomorrow to start a recovery. This week is the end of the month trade, so i expect some profit taking from Short after Wednesday. Weekly, Daily and H4 indicators are bearish but are already turning flat to bullish, so i think we are going to have a recovery soon, although opening with such a gap lower is not a good sign.

GOLD was not able to close the week…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 25, 2014 at 5:39am — No Comments

TD Securities: AUDNZD technical outlook

"AUDNZD is pressing the top of the 2014 consolidation channel just below 1.11. An alignment of bullish trend momentum signals on the short, medium and long-term studies suggests that the cross is liable to continue move up towards the 1.12/1.16 congestion range near-term while counter-trend corrections should…

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Added by Daologic on August 23, 2014 at 1:38pm — 1 Comment

FOREX forecast 21.08.2014

EUR has lost almost 200 pips since Monday and the pair despreately needs a correction but still there are no any signs of a possible correction. EUR is in a free fall state, after bad data from the EU and Germany, and better news from the US. Dollar is stronger than ever but i wonder if this is a temporary strength or the start of continuous EUR weakness. The pair needs a correction at least to 1.3330-50, and maybe more next week. But first we need to deal with the 1.3290-1.3310 resistance…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 21, 2014 at 4:58am — 1 Comment

FOREX forecast 20.08.2014 in advance

After several failed attempts to break 1.3400, te EUR slided down below the 1.3330 support reaching 1.3312 by the moment of writing. The area between 1.3295-1.3310 seems well protected and it will be difficult to break before tomorrow's FED decision. I think that the market is currently consuming tomorrow's news. So it is quite possible to witness a risk aversion tomorrow, reaching 1.3470-1.3500.

GOLD is trying to stay above 1292 support but breaking below will increase the downside .…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 19, 2014 at 4:16pm — 1 Comment

FOREX update 15.08.2014

EUR did not succeed to close daily trade above 1.3380 the whole week. It moved in a small range between 1.3340 and 1.3415.Breaking of either will boost the further move in the same direction. However for now the pair seems locked inside.

GOLD has made a quick test of 1292 support but returnes fast above the previous 1305 support.Any drop below 1300 again may cause further drop to 1276 and 1254 for example.

NZD preserves the chances of upside recovery as long as the price is…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 15, 2014 at 4:46pm — 2 Comments

FOREX forecast 11.08.2014

EUR recovery has reached 1.3430 but the bullish power was not enough for something more, so the pair made a pullback to 1.3400, just above the support area 1.3380-90. Breaking below will test 1.3320-30 once again. We have a great chance for this because tomorrow's ZEW for Geermany is expected to be far worse from the previous value, and economic growth data for the eurozone on Thursday is also expected to be worse than previous. So i expect more slide till the end of this week.

GOLD…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 11, 2014 at 5:00am — No Comments

Old School- Trends and patterns

I am old school guys. I like wood and not plastic, glass and not PTF, the vinyl spinning on a platter and not MP3, analog and not digital. I am old school.

EURUSD Old School Style:

GBPUSD Old School, exhibit A…

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Added by Daologic on August 7, 2014 at 2:55pm — 6 Comments

FOREX forecast 06.08.2014

EUR lost 1.3400 again ahead of ECB meeting tomorrow. As i have said in my previous forecast we have two support areas below 1.3330 and 1.3300. Currently EUR is far below the negative Ichimoku and it is expected the pair to make a big upside correction till the end of this week. The recovery move may be a part of tomorrow's high volatility too. Daily indicators are negative while smaller ones are mixed to positive. To the upside recovery is limited by 1.3610-20 resistance and i do not expect…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 6, 2014 at 5:02am — 1 Comment

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