All Blog Posts Tagged 'AUD' (371)

FOREX forecast 31.07.2014

Dollar gained much strength these days as FED continues to cut the stimulus program. USD has made significant advance against everything, but it seems that after yesterday's decision it is time for profit taking, so we have some pullback eveywhere. I expect the EUR to try to recover back to 1.3450-65 today or tomorrow. Another dollar push below 1.3375 may take the pair down to 1.3330. There we have a strong support area which is not going to be brokens soon, so you may enter LONG close to…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on July 31, 2014 at 4:56am — 2 Comments

FOREX forecast 28.07.2014

EUR dropped below 1.3450 support and now consolidates inside the main support area between 1.3420 and 1.3450. It is expected the pair to test 1.3400. EUR is bearish on all time frames except Weekly and Monthly. The resistance area is 1.3445-1.3455 and if broken the target will be 1.3475-85. To the downside breaking of 1.3400 may lead to another drop to 1.3300.

GOLD bounced from the Senkous Span B price last week and currently continues recovery above 1294. At the moment of writing the…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on July 28, 2014 at 4:51am — No Comments

FOREX forecast 23.07.2014

EUR dropped below 1.3500 yesterday and is now approaching a strong support area which is going to stop the downside move and to start a recovery to the upside.This area is between 1.3420 and 1.3450. However if 1.3400 is broken this will lead to another 100 pips drop, but i think this won't happen this month. Since today's opening the EUR shows signs of recovery. The target is 1.3500 and above but the first attempt may not succeed.

GOLD is pretty calm in this situation, hovering above…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on July 23, 2014 at 6:23am — No Comments

Rabobank FX: JPY and risk appetite

"(...)

We expect that the JPY is still on course for softening vs. the USD over the medium-term as the progression of Fed tapering highlights the extremely accommodative position of the BoJ.  However, near-term the readjustment in expectations regarding the outlook for the AUD, NZD and the EUR could be providing additional support for the yen.  Layered on top of the prevailing geopolitical risks and the adjustments…

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Added by Daologic on July 21, 2014 at 11:13am — No Comments

FOREX forecast 18.07.2014

EUR still holds 1.3520 by the end of the week, but let's first take a look on my previous forecast. on Wednesday i have forecasted that the EUR will continue sliding down to the support area 1.3490-1.3500. Well it still didn't reached that but went too close and the week is not over yet.We can see some stabilization just above that support area. So maybe some correction to the upside is possible today for example to 1.3540-50 and then another push to the downside again.

GOLD…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on July 18, 2014 at 4:43am — 4 Comments

FOREX forecast 16.07.2014

EUR dropped yesterday following a lot worse than expected ZEW data from Germany and Eurozone. Today i expect the downside to continue with target 1.3490-1.3500 support area. If that is broken too (maybe not today) downside will continue to the major support and reversal area 1.3420-30. Closing below that on Weekly will reverse the bullish trend. But I don't think this will happen soon. Currently EUR is bearish on all time frames, so more downside to come, do not enter LONG. A correction has…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on July 16, 2014 at 5:02am — 1 Comment

FOREX forecast 11.07.2014

EUR is consolidating again ahead of Daily Senkou Span A price but as long as the price is below 1.3640 the pair is quite vulnerable to a sudden drop to 1.3540-50 for example. However this will be only a temporary weakness. And the consolidation outlook won't be changed even if the price drops to 1.3500. I think that the EUR will try to enter the negative Daily Ichimoku in the next 10 days and this means reaching 1.3700. Once above 1.3700, the final resistance will be 1.3750, and if we have a…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on July 11, 2014 at 5:00am — 1 Comment

FOREX forecast 08.07.2014

EUR has stopped for a while the free fall, but it almost has no chances of any recovery to the upside as we have a strong resistance area built by several resistance lines. This resistance area is between 1.3630 and 1.3660. If we have any recovery into this area please keep in mind that the new downside wave may start at any moment. Upside reversal may happen only on a Daily close above 1.3680. If so, then the negative Daily Ichimoku will be inder attack and the target price will be…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on July 8, 2014 at 5:27am — 3 Comments

RBSM: Australian Macro Views - RBA much more reactive to AUD above .95

"We interpret the speech from RBA Governor Glenn Stevens this week as evidence that the RBA is much more reactive to the exchange rate above .95. It may lean towards either an easing bias or threaten intervention if it were to rise above this level, especially if its key commodity prices remain weaker. There is clearly evidence of a global reach for yield that has pushed the AUD up recently (along with other currencies such as the KRW). However, we see the USD strengthening on a firming…

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Added by Daologic on July 4, 2014 at 7:25am — No Comments

FOREX forecast 03.07.2014

Today is the ECB meeting and the central bank will have to decide wheather to implement additional tools to stimulate inflation or not. As the price is above 1.3630 EUR/USD is bullish. First target is 1.3725 and the second one is 1.3780, finally 1.3840-50, where a correction to the downside must appear. Bearish scenario is if 1.3630 is broken, first target will be 1.3590-1.3600 support area, if broken next target will be 1.3510-1.3485. Remember that tomorrow US markets will be closed because…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on July 3, 2014 at 6:16am — No Comments

FOREX forecast 01.07.2014

As expected EUR moved to the upside reaching 1.3700-1.3710 resistance area which bounced back the price on first attempt. This upside recovery may reach some more highs, but i think that by the end of the week we shall have a reversal and drop below 1.3650 again. Currently the price is supported by the 1.3680-1.3670 support area and we are bullish as long as the price is above that support area. My model shows that the upside may even reach 1.3810 on some fundamental news, before the…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on July 1, 2014 at 5:16am — 2 Comments

UBS FX Comment - Dollar Softness Temporary

"The dollar is trading soft into the summer against higher yielding currencies as investors expect the Federal Reserve will continue to keep interest rates unchanged far into 2015. US yields at 2.53% for ten year paper remain well below the 3.00% levels seen at the start of 2014.(...)

Counting Petrodollars, Seeking Risk - and near record low levels of currency market volatility are encouraging investors to use the dollar as a funding currency for carry trades. But the softness in the…

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Added by Daologic on June 30, 2014 at 5:39am — No Comments

FOREX forecast 27.06.2014

EUR is creating some artificial volatility while waiting for the end of the month. Soon the summer holidays will start and the volatility will be low.Everybody is now waiting for the end of the month and the next ECB meeting to see wheather mr.Draghi will implement further stimulus. We remain in an ascending channel despite yesterday's spike to the H4 Senkou Span B price of the positive H4 cloud. Of course it was too early to break it lower and the price quickly reversed, but i think big…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 27, 2014 at 4:56am — 1 Comment

RBS:Diverging trends in rates warn against FX complacency

"Overview

We continue to see downside pressure building on EUR rates and upside pressure for US rates. The sharp fall in Australian rates has narrowed the AUD/USD yield advantage to a low since August last year. It is difficult to get behind a broad rally in Asian currencies, which have so far failed to benefit much from rising risk appetite, but we see scope for MYR outperformance on the recent rise in Malaysian rates. Given the…

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Added by Daologic on June 25, 2014 at 7:17am — No Comments

FOREX forecast 24.06.2014

EUR is continuing consolidation below 1.3600, and yesterday's attempt to break that resistance has failed because of the worse than expected PMI data. Today the IFO data will be released and if it is also worse like yesterday's then the EUR may drop again to 1.3550 or 1.3510. Currently the price is above the H4 negative cloud and going deep below it is not likely. Recovery to the upside will continue once the price is above 1.3600, until that one or several downside tests may appear. Daily…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 24, 2014 at 4:59am — No Comments

FOREX update 22.06.2014

EUR finished the week at 1.3600 support after a quick test of 1.3550-60. The price bounced back to the upside and the pair is now bullish on all time frames. This means the recovery will continue and with the help of good PMI and IFO on Monday and Tuesday for EU and Germany the pair may reach easily 1.3750-1.3820. Breaking of 1.3650 will be the signal for this. Downside may be restored only below 1.3540, but for now we are far from that and expected fundamental data is in favor of the EUR.…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 22, 2014 at 5:54am — 2 Comments

Société Générale's Top 10 forex trade recommendations for the second half of 2014

Société Générale's Top 10 forex trade recommendations for the second half of 2014



Here are SocGen's top 10 for the second half of this year. Verbatim.

1- Long USD, NOK and GBP vs CHF, SEK and EUR.

Easy money continues to support risk taking, but the FX carry trade needs to be selective, i.e. avoid trades where valuation is stretched (e.g. risk/reward in NZD/JPY isn't great). This portfolio exploits central bank policy differentiation. An alternative is to be long USD, NOK…

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Added by Daologic on June 20, 2014 at 4:05pm — No Comments

FOREX forecast 19.06.2014

EUR has made a shy move to the upside following the FED's decision to keep the interest rate unchanged and to continue with reducing stimulus program. This decision was expected and the market was not surprised, so the dollar lost positions against almost everything. However we lack enough power to break through the important 1.3600 resistance. Once above the price will easily go to 1.3660, but for that we need at least one H4 candle closed well above 1.3600. For now the pair seems uncapable…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 19, 2014 at 5:04am — No Comments

RBS:Moving up and down the curves supports the USD

"As we approach the FOMC minutes we see increasing risk that recent yield rises in the US could filter down the curve and recent yield falls in the Eurozone could filter up the curve. We already see the deep falls in the EUR/USD yield spread as sufficient to support a developing downtrend in the EUR and expect further yield moves to generate a case for a lower EUR. Similarly, we note yield spreads moving in favour of the USD/JPY. There is a range of other distractions that may delay…

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Added by Daologic on June 17, 2014 at 6:00am — No Comments

FOREX forecast 17.06.2014

EUR has made a test of 1.3510 yesterday before reversing to the upside and breaking of the 1.3550 took the price to 1.3580-85 as expected. However we are still below the important for further recovery 1.3600 resistance. Breaking of the 1.3600 may take the price to 1.3650-60 quickly, but there a storng resistance is placed and moving futher to the upside will be very hard. But first we need to break above 1.3600, until that we are bearish.

GOLD didn't reached my thirs target from last…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 17, 2014 at 4:59am — No Comments

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