Aud/Jpy is in final stage of it’s triangle formation. Once pattern is complete, a person can expect a sharp thrust off towards it’s initial target of previous wave 4. For more details of target, kindly visit my previous posts. 

Recommendation: short can be build up slowly here

• 100.85 – ⅓ position…

Good afternoon forex,

Nice to see all seven currencies meet or exceed my expectations today as per my trading plan. Support and resistance lines tracked according to my specs and volatility was equally matched. After reviewing today's price action here's my technical blueprint.

USDCAD: Closed at 1.0239. Resistance now at or near 1.0295. Minor support at or near 1.0218 followed by stronger support at or near 1.0150. BIAS: Mildly bearish. Catalysts: CAD…

Societé Generale - "The FX markets are now under the influence of a trilogy of themes: the American economic revival, diverging monetary policy expectations and the (unfinished) euro area (EA) crisis.

Those themes all point in the same direction: a stronger dollar. Dollar strength is now far less dependent on risk conditions; the US economic outperformance and the fears of a not-too-distant Fed exit imply that the dollar is no longer a funding currency of choice in the carry trade. The…

BMO Capital Markets - "• The RBA’s battle to restrain AUD gains has moved in favour of the former and a weaker AUD for the time being, but we believe that there will be more hurdles for the RBA to overcome.

• For the RBA to be victorious – taking a page out of the BoJ’s book to a degree – the Bank may have to fundamentally “alter the markets’ psychology” towards the AUD. This may mean taking a highly nuanced approached to restraining AUD gains or forcing outright declines.

• We…

Aud/Usd is bearish and should stay under 1.0220. Our first target met here, and still looking lower under @ 1.01. Risk can be lowered down here on top of wave [2].

Written by: ewTrading.wordpress.com…

National Australia Bank - "We issued a short AUD/NZD trade recommendation on March 25th at 1.2525, initially targeting 1.20. We are now taking profit on the trade at 1.2058 but will look to re-enter a short position as early as next Tuesday following the RBA’s rates decision.

The cross has come a long way since March and technical indicators such as the daily RSI suggest the currency is marginally ‘overbought’. What’s more, speculative net long positions are much larger in NZD relative…

National Australia Bank - "Our new valuation model suggests the current set of short-term AUD/USD ‘fundamentals’ is equivalent to a short-term ‘fair-value’ range of 0.9730 – 1.0530. In other words, the current spot rate is within one standard deviation of ‘fair value’ and as such should not be regarded as particularly expensive.

So unless you think: 1) the Fed is about to start reversing QE, 2) AU commodity prices are about to fall off a cliff, or 3) offshore risk appetite is about to…

Royal Bank of Scotland - "The AUD fell independently of other currencies (although the NZD followed suit) suddenly overnight. This appears related to increased speculation of a rate cut as soon as May. A cut in May has edged up to be 41% priced in and 92% priced in for June. Its fall was also timed with the weaker than expected ADP US employment report and a sudden drop in copper and gold prices.

(...) It seems unlikely that the AUD will collapse, but it seems likely that it will break…

Quick update, This pair was working well as per last few posts. A risk can be lower down to 102.60, if 102.60 not hold, we might see a new high above 102.90.

Written by: …

A pair had a top on 105.4. From top, we are in larger wave 4. Last drop was impulse drop and can be counted a  first wave in zigzag correction – A. There is very less chance of considering that wave as part of larger impulse move i.e. 1 (marked with red color), but having the probability, I keep that in my daily chart. On 240 min chart, price is well between in the channel, and depend on today close, we find reversal pattern on daily chart.…

On weekly chart, Aus$ is in the box trading, tested weekly trendline and close below it. Either we completed wave E @ 1.0110 or, we can see one more downside before reverse higher. I will prefer to be sideline and wait to see this range trading. Primary count suggest wave E completed and can see high very soon, with keep that idea in mind, trader should initiated long with stop loss @ 1.0110 and can target on 1.06 as first target.…

As far as current price action, it’s on track as per my last post. Below 240min chart, showing cycle / wave A on larger degree completed, and can expect wave B here. This move also can be counted impulsive for final wave 5 on daily and weekly chart, and…

National Australia Bank - "The Australian dollar remains above parity, and has strengthened over the past month despite the renewed concerns in Europe. Indeed, the frailties in Europe have seen the Australian dollar almost become a safe haven for investors, with the Trade Weighted Index hitting a 28-year high in March.

The AUD also remains supported by solid demand for Australian financial assets, with net buying of Australian assets in the past six months running at an almost identical…

AUDCAD…

Rabobank - "The AUD and the CAD have been the best performing G10 currencies on a 1 day view on the back of the bailout deal from Cyprus. These currencies continue to behave as a reasonable litmus test for ‘risk on’ behaviour although the outlook for both have recently been complicated by uncertainties over the direction of domestic central bank policy. We have remained buyers of AUD/USD on dips for months on the premise that as long as the market is awash with liquidity there would be…

HSBC - "Dollar Bloc:

CAD headwinds – Recent developments have proven problematic for the CAD, from a more sluggish economy and slippage in some commodity prices, to yet another downscaling of the Bank of Canada’s tightening bias. Moreover, the less favourable shift in the fundamental backdrop suggests less CAD strength than we previously expected, and we have adjusted our forecasts accordingly.

AUD going down under – The AUD has been…

Societé Generale - "One has the choice between a brutal long USD position across the board or trading relative values, e.g. NOKSEK, AUDNZD or EURGBP. Weighting the decision between this core portfolio allocation in USD and relative positioning is likely to become tricky.

In a lower level of volatility, we typically see a greater dispersion as currencies can be driven by a different motor (interest rate, fx policy, terms of trades…). We are reaching extremes in some of the crosses.…

National Australia Bank - "We have changed are rate cut call to two 25 bps cuts for a cumulative 50bps, from our previous forecast of a cumulative 75bps cut. We still see a case for significantly easier monetary policy ahead but acknowledge there have been early signs that lower interest rates are already getting some traction in housing and equity markets, plus the RBA’s expressed ‘comfort’ with current activity, and finally that wholesale funding costs have fallen recently. Given these…

TD Securities - "The TD View: Trading Vias:

US: Position for long term USD gains. Buy short term dips.

Canada: Look to sell CAD rallies.

Europe: Sell EUR rallies below 1.3250.

Asia/Pacific: Both AUD and NZD are sagging below our mid-year targets but yield-seeking will prevail again

LatAm: We like short BRLMXN, targetting 6.34, or 6.16 if central bank comments support a sharp adjustment in rate expectations.

EMEA: We like short EUR/PLN, targetting 4.07. USD/RUB cheap…

The Japanese yen is deemed to dip alongside the Australian dollar today as the Japanese economy contracted for the third consecutive quarter in Q4, indicating that the country is struggling to escape from a mild recession. Likewise, the markets are awaiting the outcome of the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting today.



Amid economic uncertainties overseas, Japan’s economy shrank at an annualized pace of 0.4 percent in the final three months of 2012 to contract for a third…