All Blog Posts Tagged 'AUD' (320)

FOREX forecast 16.04.2014

Full text is here

For today:

LONG EUR above 1.3800 SL 1.3785 TP 1.3850-1.3880-1.3905

SHORT EUR below 1.3840 SL 1.3855 TP 1.3790-1.3765-1.3730 (use this if upside through 1.3850-60 fails) wait for mrs.Yellen's speech today

SHORT GOLD below 1304 SL 1308 TP 1290-1285-1278-1270

LONG GOLD above 1310 SL 1306 TP 1317-1321-1328

Good luck!

Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on April 16, 2014 at 5:12am — 4 Comments

Deutsche Bank: IMM Commitment of Traders - USD turns net short, AUD positions flip long

"After seeing long positions cut for nine consecutive weeks, USD net implied positioning turned short for the first time in six months, moving from 4% of open interest to -5%. The TFF report showed that hedge funds increased short positions while asset manager continue to add dollar longs. Speculative EUR longs fell for the third consecutive week, led by hedge funds. Speculative JPY shorts…

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Added by Daologic on April 14, 2014 at 10:04am — No Comments

UBS FX Comment - Pain, Positioning and Policymakers

"The pain trade in the currency markets is the renewed weakness of the dollar against the euro, yen, Swiss franc and Australian dollar. Despite US jobless claims falling to its lowest levels since 2007, the greenback has been sold since March's Federal Open Market Committee minutes were published. In the very near term dollar longs may still be cut. But the market's position adjustment is also painful for policymakers outside the US seeking weaker domestic currencies against the greenback.…

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Added by Daologic on April 14, 2014 at 5:30am — No Comments

BBH MarketView: Dollar Breakout or Range-Bound ?

"Dollar Breakout or Range-Bound?

The US dollar had a difficult week. It lost ground against all the major currencies. Falling interest rates, sparked by the FOMC minutes that reassured investors that an early US rate…

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Added by Daologic on April 14, 2014 at 5:30am — No Comments

FOREX forecast 14.04.2014

EUR has lost almost 50 pips since Friday's close, seems that dollar recovery is going on at the moment. It can be stopped only above 1.3875 as the price is below that and below 1.3850 further downside is expected with targets below 1.3820. The pair is quite well supported around 1.3800 and any dips to there will be used to open a new LONG positions.

GOLD has bulit a new support at 1319 and as the price is above that more upside is expected. Next resistance is 1335, to continue the upside…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on April 14, 2014 at 4:31am — 2 Comments

Deutsche Bank - The Week in FX - Dollar's desert exile soon to end

"Dollar’s desert exile soon to end For many market participants, there appears no end to dollar disappointment. For James Malcolm, this is the best reason yet to hope for a turnaround. He argues that the structural legacy long in dollars has washed out, and…

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Added by Daologic on April 11, 2014 at 2:30pm — 1 Comment

RBSM: FX News, Themes & Views | US | 11th April

"Strategy

 Correlations between USD/JPY and Japanese equities have become more erratic. But Nikkei's 2.4% decline today brings Year-to-date falls above 14%. Anticipate more pressure on those sitting more in hope than expectation on remaining JPY shorts.

 Potentially a downside risk for USD/JPY next few days is a higher USD/CNH and USD/CNY. Levels of complacency have been running high that (a) the USD/China up move stalls…

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Added by Daologic on April 11, 2014 at 10:24am — No Comments

ANZ FX Insight: AUD downside options look attractive

"We recommend buying a 3 month 25 delta
AUD/USD Put.
Spot reference 0.9375
Type Put
Strike 0.9050 (25d)
Expiry 3 month (15Jul14)
Cut Tokyo 3pm
Premium 68 USD pips "

Daniel Been

Added by Daologic on April 11, 2014 at 6:30am — No Comments

RBSM: Amplifying Global FX | Ukraine and China risks remain

"Viewpoint

 

With a strong run back towards carry trades and a weaker USD over recent weeks generating its own momentum, the market has perhaps ignored key risks that continue to brew. One is Ukraine another is Chinese growth and property market slowdown. Improving US labor market indicators (strong jobless claims) also work against the Fed easier for longer view. Threats of gas supply cuts by Russia and weak Chinese imports may…

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Added by Daologic on April 11, 2014 at 6:22am — No Comments

FOREX forecast 11.04.2014

Full text here

For today:

LONG EUR above 1.3890 SL 1.3875 TP 1.3925-1.3950-1.3965-1.3985

SHORT EUR below 1.3950 SL 1.3965 TP 1.3890-1.3850-1.3820

LONG GOLD above 1318 SL 1315 TP 1322-1328-1332-1342

SHORT GOLD below 1310 SL 1313 TP 1302-1299

Good luck!

Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on April 11, 2014 at 5:10am — 4 Comments

TD:FX and Commodities Weekly-Recent Trade Recommendations

"OPEN TRADE – March 27

Sell EURAUD at 1.4839

Target of 1.45; Stop of 1.4839 (revised)

There is a window for the AUD to overshoot and the

EUR’s topside potential should be severely limited by

the ECB lifting the FX issue to front and centre of its

policy communication strategy. We have dropped the

stop on this trade to cost though as equity market

volatility may limit the shelf life of this trade.

CLOSED…

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Added by Daologic on April 11, 2014 at 4:30am — No Comments

FOREX forecast 10.04.2014

Full text is here

For today:

LONG EUR above 1.3820 SL 1.3805 TP 1.3870-1.3890-1.3925

SHORT EUR below 1.3960 SL 1.3975 TP 1.3900-1.3870-1.3820

LONG GOLD above 1318 SL 1314 TP 1326-1332-1345-1352

SHORT GOLD below 1308 SL 1312 TP 1299-1292-1286

Good luck!

Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on April 10, 2014 at 5:04am — No Comments

RBSM: Amplifying Global FX | re-engagement with emerging markets, China risks remain

"Viewpoint

 

We are in the midst of a powerful re-engagement with emerging markets after a year of under-performance. The USD is broadly under pressure. While the US rates outlook has not changed much recently, the USD is still largely winning the race to the bottom among major currencies. EUR continues to benefit from narrowing periphery spreads, the GBP is benefiting from its higher yields and lacking the dovish punch of the…

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Added by Daologic on April 9, 2014 at 4:32am — No Comments

BMO FX Strategy Daily-

"Strategy Comment…

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Added by Daologic on April 8, 2014 at 11:30am — No Comments

FOREX forecast 08.04.2014

Full text is here

For today:

LONG EUR above 1.3760 SL 1.3745 TP 1.3790-1.3820-1.3845

SHORT EUR below 1.3720 SL 1.3735 TP 1.3690-1.3660-1.3630

LONG GOLD above 1299 SL 1296 TP 1307-1312-1318

LONG GOLD above 1290 SL 1287 TP 1300-1305

SHORT GOLD below 1289 SL1292 TP 1278-1270 

Good luck!

Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on April 8, 2014 at 5:38am — No Comments

TD: FX CFTC Report

"Changes in IMM positioning in the major currencies were moderate in the week through April 1st, except for MXN, JPY, and AUD.  The former registered a significant increase in net long contracts, which led to a reversal from a net short position of –1.6k to a net long…

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Added by Daologic on April 7, 2014 at 6:29am — No Comments

TD Securities: GBPAUD technical outlook

"We noted that an alignment of negative signals for GBPAUD (strong bear trend momentum, bearish longer-term price signals— Head & Shoulders bear reversal) put the cross at risk of a deep slide. Today’s slide to new lows for the year enhances the bear picture even more. We think the early 2014 H&S…

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Added by Daologic on April 7, 2014 at 6:09am — No Comments

FOREX forecast 07.04.2014

Full text is here

For today:

LONG EUR above 1.3700 SL 1.3685 TP 1.3740-1.3760-1.3800

SHORT EUR below 1.3740 SL 1.3755 TP 1.3690-1.3670-1.3610

LONG GOLD above 1298 SL 1294 TP 1308-1312-1318-1328

SHORT GOLD below 1295 SL 1299 TP 1286-1280

Good luck!

Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on April 7, 2014 at 4:54am — 2 Comments

TD:FX and Commodities Weekly-AUD

"(...)

Our forecasts for the RBA to hike this year and much earlier than the Fed argues for a stronger AUD. However with Chinese officials attempting to manage the transition from net exports to consumption, adding a layer of uncertainty for the RBA, and against a backdrop of accelerating US growth, we do not forecast a significant AUD rally from current levels. But nor are we forecasting the AUD to drop sharply lower. Rather, we expect the AUD to be closer to USD0.87/88 over the…

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Added by Daologic on April 4, 2014 at 5:00am — No Comments

FOREX forecast 03.04.2014

Read the full text here

For today:

SHORT EUR below 1.3780 SL 1.3795 TP 1.3730-1.3700-1.3660-1.3630-1.3610-1.3585

LONG EUR above 1.3800 SL 1.3785 TP 1.3845-1.3885-1.3910-1.3950-1.3985

SHORT GOLD below 1297 SL 1300 TP 1290-1282-1278-1271

LONG GOLD above 1304 SL 1300 TP 1310-1316-1321-1328

Good luck!

Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on April 3, 2014 at 5:00am — 1 Comment

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