EUR is moving in a range since the end of last week between 1.2400 and 1.2485. Of course range is pretty wide and allows to use the strategy buy at the bottom and sell at the top as we have a strong resistance above 1.2500. I expect range trade to continue with bearish tone, i am not optimistic about the EUR recovery till the end of this month and year. Christmas is coming in 10 days and we may see a partly profit taking ahead of the holiday. Here are the resistance and support levels for…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on December 15, 2014 at 5:49am — No Comments
EUR started the week below 1.2300 level. This week's target will be 1.2220 and below. However i expect the current downside to stop somewhere above 1.2100 and from there to start a massive recovery to the upside. All the things on Monthly may turn heavy EUR negative if next year EUR price drops below 1.2000. This if happens may push the price down to 1.1000 and even below. But let's now forget this scenario because it is a really long term one. This year's target will be somewhere above…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on December 8, 2014 at 6:21am — No Comments
EUR is in a consolidation ahead of the ECB rate decision on Thursday. Until that i expect the consolidation to continue with a bearish tone. We have two major resistances which may reverse the bearish outlook. First one is at 1.2580 and the second one is at 1.2620. breaking of them both and closing the week above will reverse the bearish outlook. On the other side bears have the excellent opportunity of testing 1.2360, as the ECB is expected to leave the interest rate at the record low level…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on December 1, 2014 at 5:06pm — No Comments
We have entered into last month of the year.During year end time the players are known to make yearly trend reversal moves.They are expected to be unusual big moves..
...........They have started that with a bang ......quick drop in GBP and AUD and rise in USD/YEN to create bearish feel in other majors and later reversed all the way up creating the bullish feel...............
..........!!!!!! Yes the economic conditions of those countires have undergone…Continue
Added by Dr. Sivaraman on December 1, 2014 at 1:56pm — No Comments
EUR dropped heaviliy again last Friday following mr.Draghi's speech. It reached 1.2360 again and currently has formed a 'double bottom' formation. However this formation is still unconfirmed. I will consider it confirmed once the price breaks above 1.2465. On double bottom confirmation we shall have a signal for a powerful profit taking and upside recovery to 1.2620. Once above it the upside will continue to 1.2740. For now first strong resistance comes at 1.2470, followed by 1.2510. If the…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 24, 2014 at 6:21am — No Comments
Last Friday EUR made some recovery to 1.2550-60 resistance area. Today EUR reversed to the downside again and has cleared all the progress made on Friday. Currently EUR found support at 1.2450 which is also the H4 Senkou Span A price. For now we are still just above the support but i think there is a huge possibility for it to be broken soon. H4 indicators are bearish, and the Daily ones are going bearish too. First target is 1.2380 and then 1.2325. To the upside we need to break above…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 17, 2014 at 6:37pm — No Comments
EUR reached a fresh low last week at 1.2360 then some profit taking appeared on Friday and the pair returned back at the important 1.2450 support. Currently we are above it and the H1, H4 and Daily indicators show some recovery signs. However we have some strong resistances ahead, and this recovery may be just some profit taking and not a real recovery process. First resistance comes at 1.2520, the second one is at 1.2565 and finally 1.2650. Only above the last we shall have a real recovery…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 10, 2014 at 6:10am — No Comments
EUR under a heavy downside pressure again after last week's FED meeting and has broken the 1.2500 support, currently trading below it too. Weekly, Daily and H4 indicators are bearish so another push downside is ahead. Seems that the EUR will look for support around 1.2200-1.2140 and finally 1.2000. It may seem too catastrophic but prices below 1.2000 are also possible, but maybe next year. For now EUR is bearish below 1.2530 and first resistance is now 1.2500.
GOLD dropped sharply to…Continue
EUR is currently below the Daily resistance of 1.2720, we have two more resistance levels to break after that - they are 1.2735 and 1.2760. Above the last the upside will be fully restored and you may enter LONG. We have the FOMC meeting on Wednesday so i expect some EUR recovery ahead, but not above 1.2900 before the meeting. Weekly, Daily and H4 indicators are turning to the upside so this tells me that some recovery is possible. If we break 1.2900 resistance too then the recovery may…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on October 27, 2014 at 5:57am — No Comments
EUR slowly looses positions from last Wednesday's upside jump and is trading currently at the 1.2750 support. Next stronger support is at 1.2700, for which i ecpect to hold and the recovery to continue to 1.2900 and above. However if for some reason we have a Daily close below 1.2700, this will reopen the way back to 1.2540 and below. This week we do not have any so much important news, except PMI data on Thursday and US jobless claims later the same day.
GOLD is locked within the…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on October 20, 2014 at 5:15am — No Comments
EUR was unable to reach 1.2350 weekly target as the last downside push has been stopped by the 1.2500 level. A powerful recovery followed reaching 1.2800. Currently we are above the main daily support @ 1.2650 and seems the recovery is going to continue with first target 1.2730 and second one at 1.2800 finally 1.3000. However it is too early to say that any downside is over as the daily indicators are showing unstable recovery. Today is a non-working day for USA, Canada and Japan, markets…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on October 13, 2014 at 5:33am — No Comments
EUR closed another week at the lowest price with still absolutely no signs of recovery. Seems that the target is the Monthly SMA200 at 1.2220, but the pair may even try an attempt to go below. I doubt it will succeed. This week's target will be 1.2350. Daily resistance is 1.2690 and the pair has no chances of breaking it higher. EUR is now extremely bearish as all bulls are dead and the dollar makes more gains after a lot better than expected NFP data. There is no so important data releases…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on October 6, 2014 at 5:15am — No Comments
Start of the downtrend: 1.3655
Macro: The diverging stance between FED and ECB. FED has started to tighten the monetary conditions since the start of tapering process. ECB has eased the monetary conditions. This conditions will persist untill the inflation in the EZ will start to revive to ECB comfort levels (2-3%).
Correction: There have been no correction yet. I wait for a correction to sell EURUSD.
EUR has continued the free fall which started nearly 10 weeks ago. News from the EU and ermany are continuous worse and worse while over the Atlantic Mrs.Yellen continues to reduce the stimulus program. From the other side seems that 1000 pips were not enough for the big players to take their profit and they continued to sell EUR. Are they brave enough to bring the price to 1.2210? Technically this is not impossible. This price is the monthly SMA200 line and it is a good target. This monthly…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on September 29, 2014 at 5:12am — No Comments
EUR continues free fall and indicators on H4, Daily and Weekly are extremely bearish. Seems that still noone is going to take profit from Short, and this tells me that more slide is to come. Today mr.Draghi will speak, but tomorrow will be the PMI data release and if it is weak again EUR will possibly drop below 1.2805 support. On Wednesday we shall have the Germany's IFO which is expected to be worse than previous too. On Thursday the most important news will be the US jobless claims report…Continue
EUR is in a consolidation mode again before the next slide down. Possible support that will stop the downside is 1.2600 and the final one is around 1.2300 but i doubt we shall reach there soon. There was a large amount of unexpected bad EUR news and it seems the things over the Atlantic are getting a lot better. It is expected the FED to make another stimulus cut from 25 bln to 15 bln. This will push the EUR even lower till the end of this week. Today is expected the Gernamy's ZEW to be a…Continue
EUR continues the free fall and nothing seems to stop it. Target is set to 1.2805 and even below to 1.2765. Correction higher is needed, but still noone takes any profit, this means they expect more drop.Correction will start once we have over 60 pips upside H4 candle. Indicators on all time frames except M5 and M15 are extremely bearish. Maybe today we shall see some profit taking.
GOLD again is hit by the strong dollar and reached the support area 1254. If we don't see any EUR…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on September 9, 2014 at 6:28am — No Comments
Deeper and deeper EUR goes with another gap lower opening week. Finally the big players sold the EUR they have since close to 1.4000 levels. Where EUR is going to stop - it is not clear yet, but somewhere around 1.3066 we have a support area. We are currently some 200 pips below the weekly Senkou Span B price of the positive Ichimoku,however we have broken it lower too early and we have to make some significant correction higher before this break to be confirmed. The dollar is extremely…Continue
EUR dropped to 1.3185 this morning and opened the week with a huge downside gap. Today the pair may consolidate around 1.3200, and tomorrow to start a recovery. This week is the end of the month trade, so i expect some profit taking from Short after Wednesday. Weekly, Daily and H4 indicators are bearish but are already turning flat to bullish, so i think we are going to have a recovery soon, although opening with such a gap lower is not a good sign.
GOLD was not able to close the week…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 25, 2014 at 5:39am — No Comments
EUR has lost almost 200 pips since Monday and the pair despreately needs a correction but still there are no any signs of a possible correction. EUR is in a free fall state, after bad data from the EU and Germany, and better news from the US. Dollar is stronger than ever but i wonder if this is a temporary strength or the start of continuous EUR weakness. The pair needs a correction at least to 1.3330-50, and maybe more next week. But first we need to deal with the 1.3290-1.3310 resistance…Continue