"Australia's quarterly capex survey contained some bright spots overnight, but the outlook for 2014 is less encouraging. The next edition of the report (on Feb 27th) will likely confirm this ? if public announcements by miners and the RBA's own growth forecasts are any…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 28, 2013 at 8:03am — No Comments
Added by Daologic on November 27, 2013 at 6:13am — No Comments
"AUD/CAD slipped to a marginal new cycle low overnight but bargain hunters stepped in to limit the sell-off and bring the cross marginally off the low just ahead of the 50% retracement support of the August/October rally at 0.9616. The overall pattern of trade still looks weak to us and, unless there is a further rebound in price that extends through tomorrow, we rather think that a deeper retracement of 0.91/1.00 move is still required (and likely near-term) on the basis of the strong…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 25, 2013 at 5:08pm — No Comments
"(...) The euro-yen and sterling yen crosses capture the theme. Both are trading at multi-year highs, even though the dollar remains a few percentage points below the high it set against the yen in May.
The euro traded down to almost the support near GBP0.8300, but sterling is at 3-year highs…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 25, 2013 at 5:35am — No Comments
"FX Set-up: USD Mixed, Focus on Commodity FX
EUR/USD has taken back more than 3/4 of the sell-off seen earlier in the week on the back of the negative depo rate…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 22, 2013 at 1:25pm — No Comments
EURUSD BEARISH With bearish conditions intact, any recovery will be limited to resistance at 1.3579. Support is at 1.3400, a break below this would expose 1.3293.
USDJPY BULLISH Further support developed on Thursday and the pair is trading within striking distance of the resistance at 101.53, a break through which would open 103.74. Support is at 99.57.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL There is an important resistance at 1.6260, a break through which would be positive as it would indicate more upside…
FX Set-up: Taper Caper, USD to Firm
Taper trades are back in vogue. Better than expected US data and hawkish Fed comments drove US long-term…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 21, 2013 at 1:13pm — No Comments
" There are four main forces that continue to shape the investment climate: Fed tapering, further action by the ECB, Japan’s third arrow, and China’s economic stabilization
- Japan reported a much larger than expected trade deficit
- Bernanke's comments late…
Added by Daologic on November 20, 2013 at 12:06pm — No Comments
Looking ahead the AUD is likely to be buffeted mostly by domestic and Chinese economic data. The positive reception to last week’s news of Chinese structural reforms has supported AUD/USD. That said, China still faces many hurdles, not least in implementing these reforms and we do are reluctant to forecast a break above the 0.95 level in the coming months. Near-term the 50 day sma is likely to provide…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 19, 2013 at 10:09am — No Comments
"Bernanke’s remarks on “Communication and Monetary Policy” after market closes at 7:00pm will attract considerable attention. Our expectation is for his remarks to…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 19, 2013 at 8:02am — No Comments
"AUD/CAD retain a corrective undertone having found support a little ahead of the 38.2% retracement of the 0.9185/1.0047 rally last week. We are still not convinced that the correction lower is fully complete, however, as the strength of the sell-off from the 1.00+ area last month implied a strong rejection of the 200-day/200-week moving averages and the risk of a deeper correction of the August/October rally. We remain bearish and expect near-term gains to remain limited to the low 0.98s…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 19, 2013 at 7:38am — No Comments
"EURUSD BEARISH As long as resistance holds on closing basis at 1.3501, there's scope for resumption of weakness to test the support at 1.3293 and then 1.3166. Only a close above 1.3501 would prolong the recovery to 1.3564.
USDJPY BULLISH The pair extends its strength approaching resistance at 100.61, a break above which would open 101.53. Support is at 99.11 ahead of 97.62.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL The next main resistance is at 1.6260. Support is at 1.5989.
USDCHF BULLISH While support…
"The euro has recorded higher lows for six consecutive sessions It tested the $1.35 in the second half of last week, but did not manage to close about it. This corresponds to a retracement objective of the nearly 5.5 cent decline beginning Oct 25. Assuming this level is convincingly breached, we see scope for the euro to rise 1% next week toward $1.3630. A move below $1.34…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 18, 2013 at 7:47am — No Comments
§ The Commitments of Traders Report showed another week of surging demand for USD exposure as of Tuesday, November 12th. Overall activity among…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 18, 2013 at 7:36am — No Comments
The pair recovered much of this week and is held by the resistance at 1.3501. A
breach of this level would open the way to 1.3627. Support is at 1.3397 ahead of
USDJPY BULLISH Resistance is at 100.61, a break above which would open 101.53. Support is at
98.71 ahead of 97.62.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.6118, a break above which would open the critical 1.6260.
Support is at 1.5855 ahead of 1.5708.
USDCHF NEUTRAL The pair has been…
Added by Daologic on November 14, 2013 at 7:44am — No Comments
FX: Our US economics team estimates that the fiscal episode will trim growth slightly, but should not have a more direct persistent impact. However, the indirect impact has been USD-negative for FX markets
in helping to push off Fed tapering that much longer. We remain fairly optimistic about the medium-term prospects for the U.S. economy, which we believe will be positive for USD.
Rates: The market has already pushed out tapering expectations and priced in a dovish…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 11, 2013 at 11:37am — No Comments
Added by Daologic on November 1, 2013 at 8:52am — No Comments
Bank of America Merrill Lynch - "Last week, we recommended buying AUD/USD as a short-term opportunity with the delay in Fed tapering and fiscal risks likely to be supportive for carry trades (Buy now, but don't get carried away). Our flows suggested that longer term investors were still relatively short AUD, adding to the near-term upward pressure on the currency. We recommended buying a 2m 0.9750 call against selling 2x 0.9900 calls. Despite the recent fall in the AUD - in our view, due to…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on October 25, 2013 at 9:03am — No Comments
AUDUSD accelerated to the upside in the last few days and hit 161.8% Fibonacci extension target for wave 3 from where we have seen a strong reversal in the last session or two. This reversal lower should not be a surprise as it's just a corrective wave 4 that is part of an incomplete five wave rally from 0.9280. With that said, be aware of 0.9570-0.9620 region where corrective retracement may find a support for a bounce up in wave 5 towards 0.9800.
AUDUSD 4h Elliott Wave…Continue
AUDUSD accelerated to the upside yesterday which has been expected for a while as we are tracking an impulsive structure from late September swing low. Notice that pair moved out of the base channel which is usually a confirmation for a wave three in progress in the middle of a five wave rally. With that said, we think that pair will reach higher prices, but could find a temporary resistance around 0.9700-0.9730 that seems to be a next projected region.