Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "So with Cyprus possibly fading from focus, we expect the euro may derive direction over the coming weeks from events in Italy. Yield spreads in Spain and Italy over Germany remain an important driver of EUR/USD direction and the political gridlock in Italy, reinforced this week by Bersani’s inability to form a government, has resulted in the Italy-Germany spread widening by 46bps to 360bps this week. The weakest bid-to-cover since 2002 in a 5-year government bond…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 1, 2013 at 10:05am — No Comments
TD Securities - "USD/JPY seasonal patterns tend to favour the JPY in the March/ April/May period (based on a simple analysis of the distribution of monthly returns over the past 20 years).
(...) However, though we continue to think that current USD/ JPY levels are over-extended and that a good deal of still pending BoJ easing is priced in to the market at current levels, USD/JPY losses may be mitigated in the early stages of the New fiscal year if Japanese investors adjust (reduce) USD…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 1, 2013 at 9:54am — No Comments
Today I presented the asian session live market analysis webinar explaining the expected market moves for this week.The recording of the webinar is available in the given below link:
Pleae only use the forecast as guidance and use your market reading…Continue
Societé Generale - "Hello Q2. Q1s best currency was the Mexican peso, ahead of the Thai Baht, the Icelandic Krona, the Brazilian real and the pick of G10, the NZD. An eclectic bunch, for sure, and you have to stretch to find a common theme, but 'US dollars on steroids' is as close as I can come. Q1's worst currencies were the rand, the yen, HUF, GBP and PLN. Budapest and London could be lovely for value-hunting tourists if we ever actually get round to 'Spring'. The common thread, yen…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 1, 2013 at 8:42am — No Comments
EUR/USD, opens the new trading week very quietly, making an initial dip and recovering over the 1.28 line once again. Many financial centers are still closed for the Easter holiday. More action is expected in the US session, when the ISM Manufacturing PMI is released – it is the first hint towards the Non-Farm Payrolls. The rest of the week is already packed with top tier events, including the euro-zone rate…Continue
Added by Yohay Elam on April 1, 2013 at 8:40am — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH As bearish trend conditions persist, there is scope for extension of weakness to test strong support at 1.2662. Resistance is at 1.2900.
USDJPY BULLISH While the support at 93.11 holds, the risk for resumption of upside. Initial resistance is at 95.12, a break above would open 96.71.
GBPUSD BEARISH The broader bear trend is intact and support is at 1.5093, a break below would trigger deeper sell-off to 1.5027. Resistance is at 1.5269."
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 1, 2013 at 8:00am — No Comments
Added by Ron Schelling on April 1, 2013 at 8:00am — No Comments
Brown Brothers Harriman - "Euro: March was the second consecutive month that the euro fell. The $1.2750 offers initial support and some option barriers are believed to have been struck there. The next down side target is $1.2680, which corresponds to a retracement objective of the euro's rally sparked by ECB Draghi's comments in late July 2012. We remain concerned that from a technical perspective the euro is stretched. The new four month lows were not confirmed by the RSI. Perhaps the 5-day…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 1, 2013 at 7:45am — No Comments
The bullish pennant in eurjpy might be interisting for a long entry if the rising support holds. Stop loss under the last low, @ 188.23 first target is the resistance @ 123.60, if broken we can add to the long and target a retest of 127,32.
Feel free to give comments and ideas!
Though pressure remains on further down movement I am very reluctant to enter any short following experience from Friday. Today is Easter Monday and April fools day so don't be a fool.
EURUSD is currently trapped in narrow range from 1.2750 to 1.2840, indicators show that some retracement to the upside is possible, so my strategy is to enter long but with small sized positions either very close on bottom of above mentioned range or on break out of 1.2840 with larger position.…Continue
Added by Viktor on April 1, 2013 at 6:40am — No Comments
EURAUD has been short for last few weeks and currently tested strong support. Considering the price action and strength of support we anticipate a corrective move. Providing High Probability Setup for Long.
Outlook – Short Term Long
Entry - Long Entry 1 (1.2291 – 1.21634)
TP 1 (1.24181) , SL…
EUR was calm on the Good Friday and the situation will be the same today too as most of the markets are in easter holidays. This week we expect PMI data release and ECB rate decision, of course no surprises in the ECB interest rate is expected. However i expect weak economic data from EUR and better over the atlantic. Weak EU data combined with the worse political situation in Europe will continue to push the EUR lower. Of course sometimes mr.Draghi causes sudden EUR jumps, so look closer…Continue
CRUDE OIL: Having maintained its upside offensive, further gain is likely towards the 98.22 level. A breach will resume its medium term uptrend with resistance standing at the 99.00 level with a loss of there turning attention to the 99.50 level. On the downside, below 89.00 level must be traded to reverse its present upside bias. This if seen will aim at the 88.87 level where its rising trendline is located. A breather may occur here and turn it higher but if broken further downside…
Added by fxtech on April 1, 2013 at 3:20am — No Comments
First, I am not a journalist. Second, I trade part time. Third, I am currently long USDCAD with 4 positions at 98.55 with stops just below 1.0100. And finally, I am posting this for the forex trading sphere and like minded traders. Please do not trade according to my thesis. Due diligence is warranted.
With that out of the way, I am finally pleased to see the USDCAD is trading according to the underlying economics. I don't know why it took this long for the Canadian dollar to…Continue
Very interesting article about delation/inflation.
A must to read, so click on the pictures for more.Continue
Added by Ron Schelling on March 31, 2013 at 4:22pm — No Comments
The average on the 6 major pairs against the US Dollar has dropped in the last 4 sessions, from very strong to neutral.
For more click on the chart:
Added by Ron Schelling on March 31, 2013 at 4:17pm — No Comments
Recommendations: SHORT positions below 1.2847 with 1.2660 & 1.2500 as next targets.
Alternative scenario: The upside breakout of 1.2847 will call for a rebound to 1.2940/1.3047.
Description: The EUR/USD continued its bearish momentum last week, a short term bottom has been placed at 1.2750 levels, 4 hour close above the key resistance 1.2847 will confirm bottoming at 1.2750 and should pave the…
The British pound was down slightly against the dollar last week, as GBP/USD closed just above the 1.52 line, at 1.5201. This week could be eventful, as the highlights include PMI numbers and the Official Bank Rate. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.
Last week saw disappointing data out of both the US and the UK. The UK Current Account Deficit widened, while the US had a particularly bad week, with poor…Continue
Added by Yohay Elam on March 31, 2013 at 1:22pm — No Comments
GU : Looking for initial 5150ish to 5250ish play or 100 odd pips as projecting on 2 hrs and 30 mins.. 8 hrs with bigger picture and 5277-80 is solid resis with 5130-33 as solid supp... Overall this has potential to the north side if can break 5280 clean for a move higher to late 53's..
Added by Tahir Khan on March 31, 2013 at 10:35am — No Comments
EURUSD: With a sell off reversing its corrective recovery the past week, further weakness is likely in the new week. This leaves the pair targeting the 1.2700 level with a loss of here turning attention to the 1.2660 level and then the 1.2600 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.2500 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, EUR will have to break and hold above the 1.3047 level to annul its downside and turn attention to the 1.3250…Continue
Added by fxtech on March 31, 2013 at 9:55am — No Comments