Danske Bank - "We stick to our overall view that the euro will gain against USD, JPY and GBP over the next three months and continue to forecast that EUR/USD will hit 1.33 and EUR/GBP will hit 0.88 on a 3M horizon. Given our new higher USD/JPY forecast we expect EUR/JPY to trade as high as 136 (131) in three months' time.
The combination of fiscal tightening and monetary easing is expected to weigh on JPY and GBP and we think there is further downside in store for both currencies. Thus,…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 15, 2013 at 8:22pm — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "An absence of new reasons to add to short GBP positions has continued to see a trimming of speculative positions, most noticeably in GBP/USD. However, the move in GBP/USD also reflects a more cautious USD environment, as the last set of US payroll numbers continue to lead to jitters about the strength of the US recovery and what this may mean for the tapering of the Fed's asset purchases. This is also reflected by the relative stability of EUR/GBP.
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 15, 2013 at 7:41pm — No Comments
JP Morgan - "JPY is the currency that keeps on giving. Hold a basket of cash shorts versus USD, AUD and BRL, albeit with tighter stops. Hold residual shorts in GBP (GBP/NOK) ahead of the MPC minutes, while the Riksbank meeting represents the last-chance saloon for a bullish NOK/SEK seagull.
(...) The general picture for the EUR remains weak and only offers significant upside against JPY and CZK. The long-term picture of the JPY remains very weak. Stay long CAD/JPY, TRY/JPY, USD/NOK and…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 15, 2013 at 6:51pm — No Comments
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 15, 2013 at 6:27pm — No Comments
Societé Generale - "The slightly longer term question is where to sell the yen if you're not short. We've written plenty of times about the air getting thinner about USD/JPY 100, and the air up there certainly smells less pleasant to the US Treasury. But I'm not sure that will prevent Japanese investors from hunting for yield in markets where they exist, confident in the knowledge that BOJ/MOF will fight currency strength. This however, just takes me to the longer term question, which is…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 15, 2013 at 5:35pm — No Comments
The base of the past twenty months at 1522 is now gone. The twelve year trend as described by the 175 week moving average at 1493 has been broken. In addition the market has shot lower with a sustained momentum indicating this move is not a minor correction but a new trend.
My targets are 1312 and 1222. Intra-day a bounce towards 1480 should attract fresh selling.
Added by Brian Kiely on April 15, 2013 at 5:12pm — No Comments
Monday, April 15, 2013 Stamford, CT USA — Although a slowdown in global foreign exchange trading activity kept FX e-trading volumes stagnant last year, electronic trading systems continued to attract new users at a rapid pace. A new report released today, Trading Slowdown Can’t Stop the…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 15, 2013 at 5:00pm — No Comments
M&G Investments - Back in 2009 the Bank of England (the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street) began buying a portfolio of investment grade bonds to provide funding to UK corporates, to aid liquidity in the corporate bond market and to supplement their QE purchases of gilts. Last Friday this investor sold its last corporate bonds.
This has been a great success from a profit point of view. The attached chart shows the total return of an index of non-financial corporate bonds over the…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 15, 2013 at 5:00pm — No Comments
The prices of gold and silver plummeted again during last week. Their decline didn’t seem to coincide with the developments in the forex markets but did coincide with the sharp fall of other commodities and equity markets. The minutes of the recent FOMC meeting may have rekindled the speculations that…Continue
Added by Lior Cohen on April 15, 2013 at 3:19pm — No Comments
Forex pivot points: Pivot points are indicators developed by floor traders in the commodities market to determine potential turning points, which are also known as “pivots”.
Added by mc tvfc on April 15, 2013 at 3:00pm — No Comments
Currently we are at 1.0414 at the .786 Fibo/trend wall. Option 1) break down to the double bottom @ 1.0348. Option 2) bounce back to the R5 resistance @ 1.0497. The current average daily trading range (ATR) is 77 pips.…Continue
I would like of go long on NZD/USD because bears seems to weakening and a bullish reversal is most welcome. Head&Shoulders was formed after of deep retracement...
So,long @0,8466 with @0,86 ( pivot point) and finally @0,8650 will be my…Continue
TD Securities - "EUR/USD has largely conformed to expectations (last) week, with gains through the 1.3050 area prompting the retest of 1.3100/20 that we anticipated. From here though, things get a little trickier. There is just about enough evidence now to suggest that further gains in EUR/USD are more likely than renewed weakness in the near term. But the 1.3120 area that we identified as a key resistance zone remains intact (daily close basis) and there is a distinct lack of alignment on…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 15, 2013 at 11:37am — No Comments
excellent summary... good job!
TD Securities - "FX: CFTC Commitments of Traders Report - Week Ending Tuesday, April 9
· The week through Tuesday, April 9th saw speculative currency accounts make some notable adjustments to positioning in the majors, with exposure to several currencies pushing to multi-year extremes. On balance, the aggregate long USD exposure was reduced modestly to USD 17 bn (from USD 18.9 bn), by our calculation.
· A sharp…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 15, 2013 at 10:58am — No Comments
Wells Fargo - "With respect to the yen, the impressive monetary easing announced by the Bank of Japan this past week supports and perhaps enhances the prospects for a weaker ¥250 Japanese currency. The central bank’s announcement implies a pace of balance sheet expansion in excess of anything seen in Japan over the past two decades, and far in excess of the pace of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet expansion. In addition, from a historical perspective, the trade weighted value of the yen…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 15, 2013 at 10:26am — No Comments
EUR/USD is lower as we begin the new trading week. The pair has dropped below the 1.31 line, and was trading in the mid-1.30 range in Monday’s European session. After a busy Friday, which saw more dismal US numbers, this week is starting off quietly. Eurozone Trade Balance posted a higher surplus, beating the estimate. In the US, the markets will be keeping an eye on the Empire State…Continue
Added by Yohay Elam on April 15, 2013 at 9:52am — No Comments
Rabobank - "The yen remains a safe haven currency. The tendency for the yen to strengthen in times of uncertainty is linked with Japan’s current account surplus. This has at times looked a little shaky since Japan’s 2011 earthquake and nuclear disaster given the necessarily of importing expensive fossil fuels. However, the government is aiming to re-start nuclear power and it could be years before Japan truly has to face the loss of its current account surplus. The implication is that it…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 15, 2013 at 9:36am — No Comments
Deutsche Bank - "EUR/USD is also in a technically corrective phase, and is the most difficult major pair to ascertain what it is trading off: risk or rates, buoyed by reserve recycling, or, buffered by EUR cross trades? The next level for EUR/USD shorts is near 1.3150, but this is a pair that is in search of a clearer rationale before positions will be put on in size. Lastly, negative views on commodities are much better played through commodities than commodity currencies that continue to…Continue
Brown Brothers Harriman - "The Australian dollar reached almost $1.06 before the unwinding of cross positions against the yen took a toll (as it appears to have done on the other major currencies as well to varying degrees). Some observers linked the heavier tone of the Aussie before the weekend to the slide in steep slide in gold prices.
While possible, our work shows a very weak correlation between Australian dollar and gold. In fact, on a rolling-60 day basis, using percentage change,…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 15, 2013 at 9:22am — No Comments
EURUSD rallied more than 400pips over the last two weeks, but gains slowed down last week around 1.3130 swing established back from March. Notice that volume and momentum were decreasing in the last week despite higher EUR. Thats called a divergence which usually suggests a top or coming sideways prices. Ideally, market will make a deeper corrective pull-back in the very near-term within wave B) towards 1.2900/1.2950 support zone before pair turns higher once again for wave C).…Continue
Added by Gregor Horvat on April 15, 2013 at 9:10am — No Comments