Societé Generale - "BOJ policy decision – the unhappy thought of trading an unclear digital event. In response to Prime Minister Abe's call for bold policies, we are very likely to get a shot of BOJ boldness tomorrow. Kuroda has pledged to boldly go where no BOJ governor has gone before in monetary policy. But the market is already positioned for boldness, with the largest speculative short JPY position since the heyday of the yen-funded carry trade in mid-2007, according to CFTC data.…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 3, 2013 at 2:00pm — No Comments
Currently we are at 1.0491. A break of the 1.0500 here would target the resistance cluster @ 1.0530 and then the day top @ 1.0597. We are bullish. The current average daily trading range (ATR) is 62 pips.…Continue
Added by Scott Barkley on April 3, 2013 at 1:01pm — No Comments
In January I was asking myself if the recovery seen in our traffic numbers could be a reason for hope or was it just a mirage?
Well, if we consider the data for Q1 2013, I think that we can remove the question mark and assume that we are…Continue
National Australia Bank - "The Australian dollar remains above parity, and has strengthened over the past month despite the renewed concerns in Europe. Indeed, the frailties in Europe have seen the Australian dollar almost become a safe haven for investors, with the Trade Weighted Index hitting a 28-year high in March.
The AUD also remains supported by solid demand for Australian financial assets, with net buying of Australian assets in the past six months running at an almost identical…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 3, 2013 at 11:25am — No Comments
Brown Brothers Harriman - "- Weaker UK PMI data is consistent with our view of a soft economy
- Of the three major central banks meeting tomorrow, only the BOJ is expected to change policy; there, we see scope for market disappointment and potential yen gains
- Market focus will turn to US data, including ADP report and the ISM non-manufacturing
- Australia February trade out overnight showed an unexpected…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 3, 2013 at 11:00am — No Comments
EUR/USD is going to break. The driver will likely be either today's ADP nonfarm or ISM service. On the upside, 1.2880 area will provide intraday support, whereas 1.2750/70 zone will challenge the bear on the downside.…Continue
Added by Cho Xom on April 3, 2013 at 10:53am — No Comments
EUR/USD is under pressure in Wednesday trading, as the pair is struggling to stay above the 1.28 level. The euro has lost ground after weak employment and manufacturing data out of the Eurozone on Tuesday. Wednesday sees only on release out of the Eurozone. Meanwhile, the markets remain cautious ahead of the ECB policy meeting on Thursday. In the US, there are two major releases today - ADP…Continue
Added by Yohay Elam on April 3, 2013 at 9:27am — No Comments
A Daily big black candle has formed. This is a bearish candle as prices closed significantly lower than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are "high," it may be the first sign of a top. If it occurs when prices are confronting an overhead resistance area (e.g., a moving average, trend line, or price resistance level), the long black candle adds credibility to the resistance.
Similarly, if the candle appears as prices break below a support area, the long black candle…Continue
Added by Martin Kay on April 3, 2013 at 9:11am — No Comments
A hammer bullish reversal pattern formed on yesterday's USD/JPY chart.
Resistance overhead around 94.373.
This reversal is taking place within the context of a strong uptrend on the daily and weekly charts.
Keep in mind some important fundamental factors are in play.
A two-day Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting starts today, it's first lead by new Governor Haruhiko Kuroda.…Continue
Added by Dan Blystone on April 3, 2013 at 9:01am — No Comments
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "In addition to the BOJ announcement tomorrow, we also have the ECB monetary policy decision and press conference. We do not expect any change in monetary stance and also expect President Draghi to state clearly the ECB view that Cyprus was very unique and that type of banking sector bailout deal would not be repeated elsewhere in the euro-zone. (...) We maintain that an ECB rate cut will come over the summer months, possibly in June. However, we don’t expect any…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 3, 2013 at 8:38am — No Comments
Rabobank - "The impact of the Cypriot crisis on the FX market was not violent but EUR/USD was trading distinctly lower in the days after the bail-out then in the hours that led up to the deal being signed. Despite the efforts of various Eurozone politicians to reassure depositors that Cyprus’s banking bail-in will not be used as a template, they will find it difficult to re-seal that particular can of worms. The concept of banking sector bail-in as an alternative to tax payer support in the…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 3, 2013 at 8:33am — No Comments
JP Morgan - "long-term trade ideas (...) for investors who have 2-year investment horizons and are less concerned about marking-to-market in the near term. The minimum holding period for each trade is typically two quarters. (...) we have made 89 different trade recommendations across all of the main asset classes. Of these, 62 or 70% have been profitable."
Long Spanish covered vs senior unsecured bank bonds
Long S&P500 Value vs…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 3, 2013 at 8:25am — No Comments
As opposed to the other Yen currency pairs, today Usd/Jpy is forecasted to go long.
Yens continued their journey in descending channels and are testing the lower trend line. Current price action along with resistance and European currencies getting weaker, indicate at shorts in most pairs except Usd/Jpy.…Continue
Added by Sardar Uddin on April 3, 2013 at 8:18am — No Comments
ANZ - "• Asian currencies had large divergences in their performance during the first quarter of 2013
• There was no single universal theme that was influential. Rather, country specific factors were dominant
• In our view, baht strength looks overdone and a correction in the near-term is a real risk. At the other end of the spectrum, won weakness on geopolitical concerns, while understandable, looks to have gone too far
• We stay constructive on currencies with positive local…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 3, 2013 at 8:15am — No Comments
Bank of New Zealand - NZD Quick Outlook…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 3, 2013 at 8:10am — No Comments
UBS - "EURCHF NEUTRAL There is a significant support at 1.2120. Resistance is at 1.2202 ahead of 1.2255.
EURGBP BEARISH The recovery over the past two days is to unwind the overextended downside conditions. Resistance is at 0.8557. Support is at 0.8410 ahead of 0.8364.
EURJPY BEARISH The risk is for extension of weakness. Focus is on critical support at 118.73, a break below this would expose 116.85. Resistance is at 121.87.
EURUSD BEARISH As bearish trend persists, focus is…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 3, 2013 at 8:00am — No Comments
Recommendations: SHORT positions below 1.2808 with 1.2770 & 1.2730 as next targets.
Alternative scenario: The upside breakout of 1.2808 will call for a rebound to 1.2850/80.
Description: The pair is under pressure and trades below its resistance 1.2808, further decline is suggested but you need to be careful , on the 4 hour still rebounding to the upside , so you might short below 1.2808 or long…
European currencies lost ground to USD as other majors went sideways, looking at current momentum in market expect same trend to continue as European currencies may go more short in Intraday trading before test strong support ( previous lows)
Outlook – USD Strong to Neutral…Continue
Added by Sardar Uddin on April 3, 2013 at 5:50am — No Comments