European currencies lost ground to USD as other majors went sideways, looking at current momentum in market expect same trend to continue as European currencies may go more short in Intraday trading before test strong support ( previous lows)
Outlook – USD Strong to Neutral…Continue
Added by Sardar Uddin on April 3, 2013 at 5:50am — No Comments
Recommendations: SHORT positions below 120.25 with 119.15 & 118.70 as next targets.
Alternative scenario: The upside breakout of 120.25 will call for a rebound to 120.90/121.85.
Description: The pair trades below its resistance at 120.25 , below this level look for further downside losses towards 119.15 & 118.70 levels and possible lower, a break above 120.25 - an hourly close - will reverse…
Added by Carol Harmer on April 3, 2013 at 5:23am — No Comments
EUR has failed to progress above the 1.2860 resistance area and bears again have taken control of the price. GOLD dropped heavili reaching my all targets from prevoius days. Yesterday i was asked if we are making H&S on Monthly gold, there is something like that but i am not thinking this is H&S formation - this is just a consolidation in the range 1500-1800. Pretty wide range of course but we are going to see if the 1524 support will hold the downside.
There are no important…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on April 3, 2013 at 4:52am — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "EUR/GBP continues to look to be the place where GBP has the most potential to outperform. The introduction of capital controls in Cyprus was important. The controls are due to be in place for a week, but in reality could be there for months, or potentially years. The longer they are in place, the greater the damage to financial market confidence and economic activity. The market is going to be on alert for any sign that capital is being moved out of other weaker…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 2, 2013 at 5:10pm — No Comments
Recommendations: SHORT positions below 1.5175 with 1.5090 & 1.5025 as next targets.
Alternative scenario: The upside breakout of 1.5175 will call for a rebound to 1.5235/320.
Description: The pair trades below its resistance at 1.5175, below this level look for further downside losses towards 1.5090 & 1.5025 levels, a break above 1.5175 - an hourly close is better - will reverse risks to the…
Hi guys... Uschi is the winner of this week's Forex Oracle with GBPUSD.... Glory to Uschi that called for 1.5200, just 10 pips away from London Opening at 1.5190 (8:00AM GMT).
Also worth to…Continue
Deutsche Bank - " Trendiness has hit rock bottom in G10 FX. In 2012 and 2011 periods of trendlessness coincided with data surprises beginning to disappoint in spring after positive start to the year. Given this and the uncertain macro and political backdrop, we believe that markets could remain trendless for some time. Uniformity between currencies also remains low, and realized vol is near recent highs. Pause before adding risk.
Relative growth, as measured by PMIs, is the clearest…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 2, 2013 at 1:45pm — No Comments
very interesting.... Do you share Societe's view?
Societé Generale - "Our view on gold is considerably more bearish than consensus. In our recent Commodity review 'Are we there yet?' we highlight our central scenario of gold price activity over 2013. Specifically we forecast that gold prices will average $1500/oz over the course of 2013 and will gradually drop to $1375/oz by the end of the year. This 15% fall is quite dramatic…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 2, 2013 at 1:37pm — No Comments
Currently we are at 0.8434 inside a well-built channel. We expect a shallow or sideways move before a move to the DAY CHART TOP target @ 0.8478 and then the R5 @ 0.8538. The current average daily trading range (ATR) is 69 pips.…Continue
Added by Scott Barkley on April 2, 2013 at 1:00pm — No Comments
The day after tomorrow we will be holding the 3rd MeetUp of the Barcelona FX Group:
This time the guest speaker will be our fellow community member…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 2, 2013 at 9:00am — No Comments
UBS - "For those tempted to look at SEK shorts at an early stage we suggest two possibilities:
1) long NOKSEK from 1.12 with a stop just below recent lows near 1.1030 - this is the purest expression of a SEK weakening play given the tight trade relationships and similar growth and household leverage/banking dimensions in the two countries. The rationale here would be that NOK has already reacted to the dovish central bank tilt we suspect SEK may eventually succumb to,…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 2, 2013 at 8:58am — No Comments
Sharp and extended decline seen in February suggests that pair is trading impulsively lower from above 1.6300 high. However, in the past few weeks pair has recovered from 1.4830, which was expected after five waves down in wave (3) exactly to 261.8% Fibonacci level measured of a red wave 1). We know that after every five waves correction follows, so ideally, pair is now in wave four pull-back towards 38.2% retracement level and to 1.5270 level back from 2012 swing lows that will ideally…Continue
Markets resumed after Easter Holidays in NY session yesterday, as the European Markets were closed. Earlier trends from NY session indicate weakening USD against major pairs. Expect USD to weaken further against majors but there is resistance ahead. Keep your longs short.
Outlook – GBP/USD Neutral to Weak
Ifyou happen to take this trade do let us know how it turned out for…
Added by Sardar Uddin on April 2, 2013 at 8:09am — No Comments
Westpac - "AUD/USD: The rapid rebuild of spec long AUD positions since early March hints at waning confidence in broad USD. Commodity prices remain mostly unhelpful for AUD - a story for crosses e.g. NZD and CAD? Local data will need to beat expectations for AUD/USD to spend much time above 1.0500, with 1.04 handle more comfortable.
NZD/USD: The break above 0.8355 puts the kiwi back into positive-trend mode. A quiet local calendar keeps the near term event risk firmly offshore but…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 2, 2013 at 7:14am — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH Strong resistance at 1.2900 and 1.2935 should hold any upside. The risk is for rejection and resumption of weakness. Support is at 1.2751 ahead of 1.2662.
USDCHF BULLISH There is a major support at 0.9429. While this holds on closing basis, there is potential for resumption of strength. Resistance is at 0.9528 ahead of 0.9567.
AUDUSD BULLISH Resistance is at 1.0497, a break above would leave little resistance until 1.0599. Support is at 1.0386 ahead of…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 2, 2013 at 6:58am — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "Rate cuts:
. We do not expect the Council to cut rates at this week's meeting. Indeed, we expect rates to remain on hold for the foreseeable future.
. We are not convinced that a cut in the main refinancing rate will do much good. Some members of the Council may feel that they have to do something if the situation continues to deteriorate, but others may fear that being seen to resort to measures which are likely to prove ineffectual could prove…
The GBP/JPY continued to maintain its weakness , and broke out of triangle pattern as shown on the daily chart below, this scenario builds a pressure on the 137.84 levels.
On the downside, support is at 138.25 ahead of 137.84 (main), losing the key support 137.84 on a daily closing basis would bring more fall towards the 135.88 levels ahead of the131.66 levels.
On the upside , resistance is at 141.70,143.80,144.76 and 145.87(main),to retrieve its strength, the GBP/JPY will have…Continue