Societé Generale - "As we head into August, we are likely to approach key entry points in the long USD, short EUR and JPY trades. The market is already positioned for this and hence sadly at risk of a positioning squeeze in summer markets. Multiple risk events this week suggest implied vols should stop falling given the underlying risks. These include FOMC (GDP, ADP, NFP), BoE, ECB, Bank of Israel, RBI, Italian 5 and 10Y auction and Japanese IP.
We are getting closer to the point of…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 29, 2013 at 10:22pm — No Comments
During last week, gold and silver traded up. Nonetheless, most of their gain came on Monday. During the rest of the week, both metals had an unclear trend. Their recent rally coincided with the ongoing depreciation of the US dollar against currencies including Euro and Aussie dollar. The weakness in the U.S equity market may have also contributed to the latest rally of precious metals prices.…Continue
Added by Lior Cohen on July 29, 2013 at 7:55pm — No Comments
As shown on the daily chart of USDINDEX posted below, the pair is in extended bullish divergence after losing 81.97 levels, the first assumed target of the last drop (84.91/81.97) has not been achieved yet , so there's a room for more downside losses, but the pair is likely to retest (81.97 / 82.47) levels before attacking 81.20 levels ahead of 80.15 levels..
The second chart is for USDCHF pair, as shown on it below, the pair is also in extended bullish divergence exactly as…
No FX this time, but to important to avoid.
Leverage is dangerous for many reasons, but the dangers of an excessively levered market are really rather simple to understand. As DB says, it creates an environment that can lead to a disorderly unwinding of excessive risk:
“Margin debt can be described as a tool used by stock speculators to borrow money from brokerages to buy more stock than they could otherwise afford on their own. These loans are…
Added by Ron Schelling on July 29, 2013 at 4:39pm — No Comments
National Australia Bank - "We remain short of AUD/USD from 0.9210 with a stop at 0.9350.
We have taken profit at 1.1469 on our short AUD/NZD position established at 1.1813.
EUR/USD is at the very top of the trading range we have been talking about for the last four weeks. In the absence of US data disappointments, look to fade this rally.
Our recommendation to buy USD/JPY at 100.29 proved to be a bad trade: either the wrong entry level, the wrong time, or both. We still expect…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 29, 2013 at 4:30pm — No Comments
UBS - "Our bullish view on the dollar faces key tests in the week ahead. The Federal Open Market Committee meets. US GDP, ISM, payrolls and PCE inflation data are released. The European Central Bank holds its monthly meeting and the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee also meets.
In the run up to next week's events, the greenback has weakened. US data remains mixed while Wall Street Journalist Hilsenrath suggested the Fed may sharpen its forward guidance. In contrast, Eurozone PMI…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 29, 2013 at 2:36pm — No Comments
The indicators in our Currency Strength Meter confirms the ascending structure in the Kiwi. …
Always good to know !
A year ago, Wall Street pundits and prognosticators were busy marking the 25th anniversary of the great stock market crash of October 1987, and speculating whether it could happen again to a market that had doubled over the prior three years, despite a weak underlying economy.
While October 2012 ultimately saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average decline by about 2.5%, that was nothing compared to the 22%none-day wipe out that…Continue
Added by Ron Schelling on July 29, 2013 at 2:07pm — No Comments
Danske Bank - "EUR/AUD Strategy summary – buy at 1.4170 for an objective of 1.5250. Place stop at 1.3860.
EUR/AUD saw a strong rally from a low of 1.2215 on 3 April this year to a high of 1.4415 on 20 June. Since then the market has traced out a shallow three-wave correction before attempting to resume the prior trend and posting a minor fresh high of 1.4480 on 12 July. Although we have already seen a substantial run-up, trend momentum remains strong and scope is seen for further…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 29, 2013 at 2:03pm — No Comments
TD Securities - "USD/CAD’s late July slide has failed to extend significantly—so far. Over the past week, the trend down has started to flatten out and the short-term candle chart (6-hour bars) shows some signs, via the relatively long upper and lower “shadows” (the tails on the candle bodies), that the market is less sure about the near-term direction. Short-term trend resistance (1.0281) is coming under pressure at the start of our session today and a push through here may yield a rebound…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 29, 2013 at 1:53pm — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BULLISH As the bull trend persists, indicated by the trending and momentum indicators pointing higher, focus is on further upside. Key resistance is at 1.3417. Support is at 1.3253 ahead of 1.3166
USDJPY NEUTRAL The sharp sell-off since Thursday faces a strong support at 96.75.A closing break below this would trigger further sell-off. Resistance is at 99.41 ahead of 100.87.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL The pair is testing the critical resistance at 1.5394, since Thursday. A closing…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 29, 2013 at 1:39pm — No Comments
JP Morgan - "The latest overshooting of the first key-T-junction 1.3262 (minor 76.4 %) is certainly challenging the wave 2 sub- count view which would most likely be replaced as favorite by the red scenario once daily trend line resistance at 1.3337 would also give way. Such a break would start favoring an extension into the next key-resistance barrier at 1.3483/1.3521 (76.4 % on higher scale/pivot) where the c- wave up in the red scenario would be expected to stall.
It would take a…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 29, 2013 at 1:26pm — No Comments
Currently we are at 0.9292 in a falling wedge. These are bullish patterns EVENTUALLY. We are looking for a bearish continuation after a pullback to the 0.9234 area where the bull bounce should occur. It could just bounce here back to the 0.9492 area. The average daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 96 pips.…Continue
Added by Scott Barkley on July 29, 2013 at 12:46pm — No Comments
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Recommendations: LONG positions above 1.5355 with 1.5400 & 1.5440 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The downside breakout of 1.5355 will call for a slide to 1.5300/260.
Description: The pair trades above its support at 1.5355, as long as this level holds , It will move higher towards 1.5400 , ahead of 1.5440 levels, an hourly close below 1.5355 will reverse risks to the downside towards 1.5300/260 levels.…
Today 29th July I presented Asian session : Live market analysis" webinar.During the webinar I explained the expected market moves for the 5 days of this week and also the levels in which the majors could make moves during the week.
You can view the webinar following the given below link:…Continue
The USDJPY declined as suggested last week , fall from 103.73 still treated as a consolidation pattern , and fall from 101.52 treated as a second leg of this consolidation .
On the daily chart , the daily close below 98.88 opens the way towards 97.20, at this point a halt is suggested , and we might see a retest to 98.88 levels before exposing 97.20 levels, but in all; below 97.20 levels will pave the way towards 95.03 ahead of 93.78 levels.
On the upside resistance is at…
EUR/USD is treading softly and trading quietly at the start of the new trading week. The euro posted sharp gains on Thursday but has shown little movement since then. In Monday’s European session, EUR/USD is trading just below the 1.33 line. Will the pair make an upwards move and cross above this level? Monday greets the markets with a very light schedule, with the sole release being US Pending…Continue
Added by Yohay Elam on July 29, 2013 at 10:13am — No Comments