EUR/USD is under pressure in Wednesday trading, as the pair is struggling to stay above the 1.28 level. The euro has lost ground after weak employment and manufacturing data out of the Eurozone on Tuesday. Wednesday sees only on release out of the Eurozone. Meanwhile, the markets remain cautious ahead of the ECB policy meeting on Thursday. In the US, there are two major releases today - ADP…Continue
Added by Yohay Elam on April 3, 2013 at 9:27am — No Comments
A Daily big black candle has formed. This is a bearish candle as prices closed significantly lower than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are "high," it may be the first sign of a top. If it occurs when prices are confronting an overhead resistance area (e.g., a moving average, trend line, or price resistance level), the long black candle adds credibility to the resistance.
Similarly, if the candle appears as prices break below a support area, the long black candle…Continue
Added by Martin Kay on April 3, 2013 at 9:11am — No Comments
A hammer bullish reversal pattern formed on yesterday's USD/JPY chart.
Resistance overhead around 94.373.
This reversal is taking place within the context of a strong uptrend on the daily and weekly charts.
Keep in mind some important fundamental factors are in play.
A two-day Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting starts today, it's first lead by new Governor Haruhiko Kuroda.…Continue
Added by Dan Blystone on April 3, 2013 at 9:01am — No Comments
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "In addition to the BOJ announcement tomorrow, we also have the ECB monetary policy decision and press conference. We do not expect any change in monetary stance and also expect President Draghi to state clearly the ECB view that Cyprus was very unique and that type of banking sector bailout deal would not be repeated elsewhere in the euro-zone. (...) We maintain that an ECB rate cut will come over the summer months, possibly in June. However, we don’t expect any…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 3, 2013 at 8:38am — No Comments
Rabobank - "The impact of the Cypriot crisis on the FX market was not violent but EUR/USD was trading distinctly lower in the days after the bail-out then in the hours that led up to the deal being signed. Despite the efforts of various Eurozone politicians to reassure depositors that Cyprus’s banking bail-in will not be used as a template, they will find it difficult to re-seal that particular can of worms. The concept of banking sector bail-in as an alternative to tax payer support in the…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 3, 2013 at 8:33am — No Comments
JP Morgan - "long-term trade ideas (...) for investors who have 2-year investment horizons and are less concerned about marking-to-market in the near term. The minimum holding period for each trade is typically two quarters. (...) we have made 89 different trade recommendations across all of the main asset classes. Of these, 62 or 70% have been profitable."
Long Spanish covered vs senior unsecured bank bonds
Long S&P500 Value vs…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 3, 2013 at 8:25am — No Comments
As opposed to the other Yen currency pairs, today Usd/Jpy is forecasted to go long.
Yens continued their journey in descending channels and are testing the lower trend line. Current price action along with resistance and European currencies getting weaker, indicate at shorts in most pairs except Usd/Jpy.…Continue
Added by Sardar Uddin on April 3, 2013 at 8:18am — No Comments
ANZ - "• Asian currencies had large divergences in their performance during the first quarter of 2013
• There was no single universal theme that was influential. Rather, country specific factors were dominant
• In our view, baht strength looks overdone and a correction in the near-term is a real risk. At the other end of the spectrum, won weakness on geopolitical concerns, while understandable, looks to have gone too far
• We stay constructive on currencies with positive local…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 3, 2013 at 8:15am — No Comments
Bank of New Zealand - NZD Quick Outlook…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 3, 2013 at 8:10am — No Comments
UBS - "EURCHF NEUTRAL There is a significant support at 1.2120. Resistance is at 1.2202 ahead of 1.2255.
EURGBP BEARISH The recovery over the past two days is to unwind the overextended downside conditions. Resistance is at 0.8557. Support is at 0.8410 ahead of 0.8364.
EURJPY BEARISH The risk is for extension of weakness. Focus is on critical support at 118.73, a break below this would expose 116.85. Resistance is at 121.87.
EURUSD BEARISH As bearish trend persists, focus is…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 3, 2013 at 8:00am — No Comments
Recommendations: SHORT positions below 1.2808 with 1.2770 & 1.2730 as next targets.
Alternative scenario: The upside breakout of 1.2808 will call for a rebound to 1.2850/80.
Description: The pair is under pressure and trades below its resistance 1.2808, further decline is suggested but you need to be careful , on the 4 hour still rebounding to the upside , so you might short below 1.2808 or long…
European currencies lost ground to USD as other majors went sideways, looking at current momentum in market expect same trend to continue as European currencies may go more short in Intraday trading before test strong support ( previous lows)
Outlook – USD Strong to Neutral…Continue
Added by Sardar Uddin on April 3, 2013 at 5:50am — No Comments
Recommendations: SHORT positions below 120.25 with 119.15 & 118.70 as next targets.
Alternative scenario: The upside breakout of 120.25 will call for a rebound to 120.90/121.85.
Description: The pair trades below its resistance at 120.25 , below this level look for further downside losses towards 119.15 & 118.70 levels and possible lower, a break above 120.25 - an hourly close - will reverse…
Added by Carol Harmer on April 3, 2013 at 5:23am — No Comments
EUR has failed to progress above the 1.2860 resistance area and bears again have taken control of the price. GOLD dropped heavili reaching my all targets from prevoius days. Yesterday i was asked if we are making H&S on Monthly gold, there is something like that but i am not thinking this is H&S formation - this is just a consolidation in the range 1500-1800. Pretty wide range of course but we are going to see if the 1524 support will hold the downside.
There are no important…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on April 3, 2013 at 4:52am — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "EUR/GBP continues to look to be the place where GBP has the most potential to outperform. The introduction of capital controls in Cyprus was important. The controls are due to be in place for a week, but in reality could be there for months, or potentially years. The longer they are in place, the greater the damage to financial market confidence and economic activity. The market is going to be on alert for any sign that capital is being moved out of other weaker…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 2, 2013 at 5:10pm — No Comments
Recommendations: SHORT positions below 1.5175 with 1.5090 & 1.5025 as next targets.
Alternative scenario: The upside breakout of 1.5175 will call for a rebound to 1.5235/320.
Description: The pair trades below its resistance at 1.5175, below this level look for further downside losses towards 1.5090 & 1.5025 levels, a break above 1.5175 - an hourly close is better - will reverse risks to the…
Hi guys... Uschi is the winner of this week's Forex Oracle with GBPUSD.... Glory to Uschi that called for 1.5200, just 10 pips away from London Opening at 1.5190 (8:00AM GMT).
Also worth to…Continue
Deutsche Bank - " Trendiness has hit rock bottom in G10 FX. In 2012 and 2011 periods of trendlessness coincided with data surprises beginning to disappoint in spring after positive start to the year. Given this and the uncertain macro and political backdrop, we believe that markets could remain trendless for some time. Uniformity between currencies also remains low, and realized vol is near recent highs. Pause before adding risk.
Relative growth, as measured by PMIs, is the clearest…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 2, 2013 at 1:45pm — No Comments