HSBC - "The USD is in the midst of a powerful rally, slightly obscured by the USD’s lacklustre performance against the EUR. An excessive fixation on EUR-USD as the bellwether of USD fortunes is misleading. In reality, the USD is gaining against nearly all world currencies (chart 1). This USD bull move is the combination of currency wars, tapering, a China slowdown, and the competitive advantage the US may have due to shale gas. The resilience of the EUR to the wider USD rally is a rare…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 12, 2013 at 8:44am — No Comments
USD has extended its weakness today against its majors, especially against AUD in the last hour. Pair is moving higher after five waves up yesterday from 0.9326 in A/1 and then flat correction in wave B/2 that found low at 0.9414. Form a technical point of view we expect a rise now up to 0.9550 as a minimum objective either this will now be wave C of a three wave rally or wave 3 of a new impulsive recovery.
Added by Gregor Horvat on June 12, 2013 at 7:41am — No Comments
After some hesitation around 1.3280 EUR went to test the 1.3230 support from where reversed quickly and was able to close the day above 1.3300, reaching the top of 1.3316 in the late american session. EUR is still trading with an extremely low volatility since yesterday's close, waiting for the economic data releases today. The 1.3320-30 area is a pivot area and any H4 close above that will be a signal for another upside move to 1.3400 and above. However i do not think that 1.3330 will be…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 12, 2013 at 4:34am — No Comments
The most recently confirmed up trendline for Euro Dollar / Australian Dollar has an ending point currently at 1.22. Expect prices to have some difficulty falling below this trendline. A break below this trendline on heavy trading would be a bearish sign.
A Daily white body has formed (because prices closed higher than they opened).
For the past 10 Daily candlestick bars as of 11/06/2013, there are 9 white candles versus 1 black candles with a net…Continue
Added by Martin Kay on June 12, 2013 at 3:34am — No Comments
UBS - "USDCAD NEUTRAL The recent sharp sell-off tested support at 1.0169, a closing break below this would be negative, triggering a deeper sell-off to 1.0120 and then 1.0027. Resistance is at 1.0224.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.2419 ahead of 1.2460. Support is at 1.2354, a break below would open 1.2267.
EURGBP NEUTRAL The latest weakness is approaching support at 0.8475, a break below this would open 0.8421 and then 0.8398. Resistance is at 0.8527 ahead of 0.8607.
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 11, 2013 at 2:32pm — No Comments
JP Morgan - "Despite the extent of the franc’s rally (the second strongest currency this week after JPY), we are not convinced that short-covering in CHF is yet over. As an indication that bearish sentiment towards the franc has yet to capitulate, risk reversals are still heavily bid for CHF puts (versus both EUR and USD), a marked contrast to the yen where calls now trade at a premium. Our view on the franc is clear – the depreciation in April and May was largely driven by speculative…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 11, 2013 at 2:12pm — No Comments
Currently we are at 94.59. We are looking for a small retracement here and then a continuation to the S6 support @ 93.28. The current average daily trading range (ATR) is 149 pips.…Continue
Added by Scott Barkley on June 11, 2013 at 1:08pm — No Comments
Deutsche Bank -
"- Trendiness has fallen from its peak, reflecting the dramatic reversal last week. Unsurprisingly, realized vol continues to pick up. Uniformity remains at very high levels, however, suggesting that dollar moves are still driving all currency pairs.
There are clear macro and market drivers of FX markets again after a period of several weeks when currencies were not correlated in aggregate to any single variable. These reflect a clear regime shift in…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 11, 2013 at 12:43pm — No Comments
M&G Investments - "The punch bowl of easy money that the US Federal Reserve has offered the market has been significant over the last 5 years: from low rates, to quantitative easing and benign regulation. The purpose of the party was to keep animal spirits high and prevent the gloomy cycle of recession from turning into depression. This generosity has been mirrored around the world in different guises, and so far the policy has worked with varying degrees of success. The net effect has…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 11, 2013 at 10:30am — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "The USD/JPY sits balanced it the middle of a wide range from a high on 22 May (103.74) and a low on Friday night (94.99). The aggressive monetary policy stance in Japan combined with a more active government fiscal policy has created considerable upheaval. It seems the first and perhaps easier phase of the USD/JPY rally is now behind us and the outlook now could be a longer period of corrective price action as the market searches for new reasons to drive the USD/JPY…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 11, 2013 at 10:10am — No Comments