Danske Bank - "Despite the weak risk sentiment EUR/USD has continued higher the past 24 hours. The surprise move higher in the cross reflects the recent spike in short-dated EONIA rates and not least a very stretched positioning with record many long USD positions in place.
However, we doubt the spike higher in EUR/USD is sustainable and reflects a true trend-reversal. Firstly, our fixed income analysts believe the move higher in EONIA rates is greatly exaggerated as the market is now…
Currently we are at 0.9533 at the top of the trend. IF, IF we breakout look for a continuation up to the R5 resistance @ 0.96710. A failure to break and look for the 0.786 Fibo @ 0.9426. The current average daily trading range (ATR) is 146 pips.…Continue
Added by Scott Barkley on June 12, 2013 at 1:04pm — No Comments
Were you aware of this?... I was not... interesting
Deutsche Bank - "Adjusted for volatility, China now offers the highest FX carry in the world. As a result, there has been a surge in flows into the CNY(and CNH) by both onshore and offshore entities. The performance of the carry trade is now reaching levels seen before unwinds of major carry trades of the past: AUD/JPY pre-Lehmans, and USD/JPY in 1998. Some combination of higher US yields, regulatory…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 12, 2013 at 11:33am — No Comments
EUR/USD continues to rise slowly but surely against the US dollar. The pair has pulled above the 1.33 line, as the euro continues the rally which began at the end of May. On Tuesday, the German Constitutional Court will wrap up hearings into the legality of the ECB bond-buying rescue program. In economic news, German Final CPI matched the forecast, while French CPI missed the estimate. Tuesday’s…Continue
Added by Yohay Elam on June 12, 2013 at 9:35am — No Comments
Recommendations: Long positions above 1.3277 with 1.3330 & 1.3370 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The downside breakout of 1.3277 will call for a slide to 1.3230/1.3180
Description: The pair finds support at 1.3277, as long as this level holds look for further upside gains with risk towards 1.3330/1.3370 levels, a 30 min close below 1.3277 will reverse risks to the downside towards 1.3230/1.3180.
ANZ - "AUDUSD 4h Chart: Recent price action in the 0.9480-0.9800 area is now seen to be an interim correction within the steep decline from 1.0585 with AUD at risk of extending its losses towards the 0.9205-0.9250 area or even 0.9060-70.
HOWEVER, it should be noted that the fall from 0.9800 could form the last leg within the fall from 1.0585.
A close above 0.9480 could trigger some pronounced squeeze.
AUDUSD Daily Chart: Bears beware! After rebounds faltered at channel resistance…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 12, 2013 at 9:09am — No Comments
HSBC - "The USD is in the midst of a powerful rally, slightly obscured by the USD’s lacklustre performance against the EUR. An excessive fixation on EUR-USD as the bellwether of USD fortunes is misleading. In reality, the USD is gaining against nearly all world currencies (chart 1). This USD bull move is the combination of currency wars, tapering, a China slowdown, and the competitive advantage the US may have due to shale gas. The resilience of the EUR to the wider USD rally is a rare…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 12, 2013 at 8:44am — No Comments
USD has extended its weakness today against its majors, especially against AUD in the last hour. Pair is moving higher after five waves up yesterday from 0.9326 in A/1 and then flat correction in wave B/2 that found low at 0.9414. Form a technical point of view we expect a rise now up to 0.9550 as a minimum objective either this will now be wave C of a three wave rally or wave 3 of a new impulsive recovery.
Added by Gregor Horvat on June 12, 2013 at 7:41am — No Comments
After some hesitation around 1.3280 EUR went to test the 1.3230 support from where reversed quickly and was able to close the day above 1.3300, reaching the top of 1.3316 in the late american session. EUR is still trading with an extremely low volatility since yesterday's close, waiting for the economic data releases today. The 1.3320-30 area is a pivot area and any H4 close above that will be a signal for another upside move to 1.3400 and above. However i do not think that 1.3330 will be…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 12, 2013 at 4:34am — No Comments