"(...)We do not subscribe to the view, such as outlined in the Financial Times, that the role of US Treasuries and the dollar are at increased risk. The key agents here, central banks, move at glacial speeds and have few compelling alternatives. A number of countries have long desired and sought alternatives. Remember that the demand for gold by foreign officials that…Continue
Added by Daologic on October 18, 2013 at 10:50am — No Comments
The euro continues to post gains against the US dollar in Friday trading. EUR/USD jumped about 160 points on Thursday, and is trading close to the 1.37 line in Friday European session. These are the highest levels we have seen since February. Congress has agreed to fund the government and raise the debt limit, but only for a few months, so the dollar’s struggles continue. In economic news, US Unemployment Claims fell…Continue
Added by Yohay Elam on October 18, 2013 at 9:35am — No Comments
AUDUSD accelerated to the upside yesterday which has been expected for a while as we are tracking an impulsive structure from late September swing low. Notice that pair moved out of the base channel which is usually a confirmation for a wave three in progress in the middle of a five wave rally. With that said, we think that pair will reach higher prices, but could find a temporary resistance around 0.9700-0.9730 that seems to be a next projected region.
Looking at the daily charts of the Nzd/crosses I noticed the New Zealand dollar trading at the tops. Nothing special until here. In the same time, I remembered that RBNZ's governor, Mr Wheeler, earlier this year, admitted that the central bank of New Zealand stepped in the FX market to stop the kiwi's strength as it was damaging the exporters and indirectly the economy. When Mr. Wheeler said that the Nzd/Usd was trading in the 0.8670 area and all the nzd/crosses were at record highs.…Continue
A large UK current account deficit imposes greater reliance on UK economic growth to support GBP.
EUR has elements of pre-Abenomics Japan-style deflation pressure - high current account surplus, but weak growth and large output gap pressing inflation down. ECB's slow response to deflation risks may boost EUR further until it damages the economic outlook enough to reignite crisis concerns. This…
Added by Daologic on October 18, 2013 at 7:29am — No Comments
Hello, I am going to share some of my observations on the Aussie Yen pair today. It looks very profitable in the short term, say by the end of next week. We are talking about a possible 400 pip move on the pair!
I had written a very basic update on the same when the pair was @ 93.90. Please take a look at it. The patterns we are going to talk are still the same. http://ning.it/19Dqyud.
Lets start with the Daily time…Continue
Added by yenmaster on October 18, 2013 at 7:25am — No Comments
"Congress may have just kicked the debt-ceiling can further down the road, but it was a pretty feeble kick at best and the market is still clearly unhappy at just how short a distance we have to travel until the US trips over the debt issue once more: in a matter of weeks this problem starts to flare all over again. Wariness of the USD is evident as a result, with EUR up to 1.3670, JPY down to around 0.98, GBP up at 1.6150 and AUD at 0.9620. With recent comments from China about the desire…Continue
Added by Daologic on October 18, 2013 at 7:21am — No Comments
"A sustained USD rally and NZ commodity price correction are still expected to deliver a lower NZD/USD next year. Our short-term valuation model estimates the end of Fed QE would knock around 6 cents off the 'fair-value' of the NZD/USD. A 7% commodity price 'correction' would shave off another 2 cents.
If this analysis is to be believed our end 2014 forecast of 0.7600 looks about right. Admittedly, recent developments have placed upside risk on our NZD/USD forecast track. Fed tapering…
Added by Daologic on October 18, 2013 at 7:16am — No Comments
Buy NZD/CHF at 0.7600
Target of 0.79; Stop of 0.7515
We want to buy the NZD/CHF dip. A pro-risk bias should prevail, with the Fed sidelined until 2014 and the
US averting default. A favourable yield outlook for the NZD should underpin the cross and drive the market
back towards levels seen earlier this year (0.79/0.80).
Buy USD/CAD at 1.0290
Target of 1.06; Stop of 1.0180
US political developments have helped push USD/CAD near its October lows. We…
Added by Daologic on October 18, 2013 at 7:05am — No Comments
"(...) Long EUR/USD positions have picked up some traction in the past 24 hours as the EUR moves to new short-term cycle highs. Recent experience here suggests that the market tends to get bullish close to the top end of the range and bearish at the low end. We are reluctant to join this trade at these levels, especially as conviction (ours and the markets) remains extremely low. A sustained move through
USD1.37 would very likely provide a little more impetus for EUR gains,…
Added by Daologic on October 18, 2013 at 6:56am — No Comments
Added by muthusamy perisamy on October 18, 2013 at 5:53am — No Comments
Added by Jason Sen on October 18, 2013 at 5:43am — No Comments
Added by Carol Harmer on October 18, 2013 at 3:56am — No Comments
OKLAHOMA CITY--Kansas City Fed President Esther George renewed her attack on the central bank's aggressively easy monetary policy stance, saying the institution should start cutting its bond-buying stimulus.
"The benefits of quantitative easing have been quite small, and the potential costs of the program grow each month as we buy those assets," Ms. George said Thursday.
When it comes to cutting the pace of the Fed's $85 billion-per-month in bond purchases, "it would be…Continue
Added by Damian Leu on October 17, 2013 at 7:23pm — No Comments
"(...)EUR/USD is approaching the highs of this year (1.3711) and DXY is sitting on key trendline support. In January, when the euro was last at these levels, comment risk about the strength of the euro was pervasive. However, the clear mantra from ECB President Mario Draghi (who along with the Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem is one of the two officials responsible for articulating exchange rate policy) is that the level of the euro is not a target for the…Continue
Added by Daologic on October 17, 2013 at 4:16pm — No Comments
Currently we are at 0.9626 after taking out the target. We are at the confluence of the Trend, Channel and Resistance. We are looking for a correction to the channel bottom area @ 0.9581. The average daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 72 pips.…Continue
Added by Scott Barkley on October 17, 2013 at 1:33pm — No Comments
"Positive developments in Washington did not pressure EUR/USD for very long, as the pair USD spiked higher in the Asian session along with the sharp USD selloff. A credit rating downgrade by a Chinese agency was attributed to the broad move away from the USD, and toward alternate ‘safe haven’ destinations. The Chinese agency’s downgrade …Continue
Added by Daologic on October 17, 2013 at 12:24pm — No Comments
"Open 1.0304 Range 1.0291/1..0332 Previous Close 1.0327
The USD is lower…Continue
Added by Daologic on October 17, 2013 at 12:17pm — No Comments
"(...)We had expected a modest relief rally in the USD to greet a deal in Washington but, having eased modestly in reaction to the 11th hour deal late yesterday, the USD sold off further through the overnight session on the back of a Chinese rating agency downgrading the US—prompting fears that Fitch might follow suit (having just put the US on negative outlook). The USD reaction to the Dagong rating agency’s decision seems a little over the…Continue
Added by Daologic on October 17, 2013 at 12:14pm — No Comments