UBS - "This week's key points are:
- Fed easing is priced into the dollar
- Spain presents downside risks to euro
- BoJ on hold this week but USDJPY shouldn't decline
- BoE also on hold but more easing due in November
- SNB to continue with EURCHF policy indefinitely
- Norges Bank dilemma is NOKSEK positive
- RBA to cut, stay short Australian dollar"
Mansoor Mohi-uddin, Managing Director & Head, Foreign Exchange Strategy at UBS Macro Research.

Today's prefered trade setup :



EUR/JPY H4 - sell only after a concludent rejection below the 100.50 resistance level.Place stop loss inside the broken channel.Currently price is in a possible bearish flag formation.Possibility to form a Double Top also existent.Pay attention to what the price does today.Short-term bearish view is ok as long as price keeps below its broken channel.

Attached also Daily…

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Last time EUR was unable to break the 1.2940-60 resistance and reversed to the downside and the SELL forecast worked. This Monday starts with more downside and one unsuccessful try to break lower 1.2800 at the moment of writing. We have 38.2 retrqacement @ 1.2740, so for today i'm expecting a range trade between 1.2740 and 1.2850. Fresh fuel for the EUR may come from any raiting agency which will lower Spain's raiting - this will renew the speculations about requesting financial help for…

My picks for Trade of the Week (TOTW) have consisted largely of trade setups which materialized during the New York morning trading session. As FX Bootcamp's trader coach covering that session, I'm likely a bit biased toward that session spanning from 8:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. New York time, yet I've not deliberately sought to exclude opportunities for entering trades during the London session in my past TOTW posts. I always strive to conduct an objective review of all reasonable trade setups…

Although the Australian dollar and British pound have been considered haven currencies by some, selling either of those currencies against the US dollar proved to be winning bets on the last trading day of the week, month, and quarter. A firmer greenback following the release of the worst Chicago Business Barometer reading in three years gave a boost to…

EURJPY

After peaking at 103.50 about a week and a half ago, the EURJPY has formed two N waves down which is leg 6 of the wave count.  This is hinting there is likely another leg down and the price action confirms that with the last pullback being corrective.  Also, the chikou is below the price line, and there is a thick kumo ahead, so watch for a potential strong downward …

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and H4

on Daily we're in downtrend channel and below 200 Day SMA. I've…

GOLD:  While GOLD may be digesting its recent gains, it continues to hold on to its medium term uptrend. However, we think the commodity should eventually recapture the 1,790.20 level on ending the mentioned consolidation. Above here will aim at the 1,800.00 level where a violation will call for a push further higher towards the 1.850 level. The alternative scenario will be for the commodity to return to the 1,700.00 level and then the 1,676 level. We expect this levels to provide a strong…

If you want to know more about the current situation in Catalonia and how distressful our future will be without our big owner Spain, read this.... I could not have said it better :)

Francesc

The Pursuit of Happiness

Written by Xavier Sala i Martin

Possessive husbands tend to react predictably when their wives ask for a divorce:…

GBP/USD was marked by a quiet week of trading. The pair dropped slightly at week’s end, closing in the mid-1.61 range. The upcoming week is quite busy, with 10 events. Here is an outlook of the upcoming events, and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

UK data was very close to the market forecasts. In the US, the numbers were mixed – housing figures were…

GBP/USD was marked by a quiet week of trading. The pair dropped slightly at week’s end, closing in the mid-1.61 range. The upcoming week is quite busy, with 10 events. Here is an outlook of the upcoming events, and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

UK data was very close to the market forecasts. In the US, the numbers were mixed – housing figures were…

EURUSD: A second consecutive week of declines saw the EUR even more vulnerable to the downside with eyes on the 1.2753 level. A clearance of here will open the door for a run at the 1.2692/1.2748 levels where a reversal of roles could occur. This could see the pair back off lower prices and target the upside. However, if this fails to happen Further declines will aim at the 1.2442 level. Its weekly RSI has turned lower supporting this view. On the other hand, the pair will have to…

EUR/USD trend turned last week, see red color bar at the bottom.

Only a close (NY) next week aboven 1.2960 can change the trend.

  Two ways exist to look at a currency price within the four moments of a distribution of prices on a curve; Standard deviations and logarithms. Four moments? Yea: averages, variances and standard deviations, skews and peakedness of tops in bell curves and kurtosis.

  Yes you see what most look at in a chart is prices therefore they are called price charts. But those prices are straight market prices, nothing sugar coated in that assessment. A time once existed when Logarithm…