All Blog Posts (19,684)

$NZDUSD trading strategy-TD securities

"The NZD is one currency we have liked recently following some signs of stronger technical momentum (above 0.8160—0.7700 double

bottom trigger) in the past few weeks . But this week’s collapse in price likely signals a near-term peak, at least to retest the mid/

upper 0.81 area. The strength of this week’s reversal—a huge, bearish key week reversal—suggests that the risk of a deeper pullback

cannot be ignored. Near-term, expect more weakness towards 0.8160.…


Added by Daologic on October 26, 2013 at 6:59am — No Comments

$EURUSD trading strategy-TD securities


  EUR/USD’s gains have extended to the low 1.38 area today, the high of the year and a pinpoint test of the bull channel in place since

the start of Q3. Trend momentum signals remain bullishly aligned across a range of timeframes but, with trend channel resistance

holding, the slow stochastic…


Added by Daologic on October 26, 2013 at 6:54am — No Comments

EURCAD trading strategy-TD securities

"Bullish trend momentum remains very supportive for EUR/CAD. This week’s push through the 1.4125 resistance zone leaves

the cross looking well poised to extend, even if the EUR is looking over-extended now across a range of time frames. Nearterm

(2-4 weeks) gains towards 1.46/1.48 may give way to a deep correction in the longer run. Trend channel resistance at

1.4445 may cap the cross in the next few days but we rather suspect that short-term corrective losses in this market…


Added by Daologic on October 26, 2013 at 6:45am — No Comments

$CAD technical outlook-Trading strategy-TD Securities

"USD/CAD is trading firmer through the close of the week and solidifying gains through the 40-day MA (1.0351) today. The

heavy tone to price action we noted earlier in the week as a potential “selling crescendo” against the 200-day MA turned out to

be exactly that, with the USD rallying hard from the 1.03 area immediate afterwards and through to the pivotal mid 1.04 zone

today. Intraday, spot looks potentially capped against former trend support-turned-resistance at 1.0457 but…


Added by Daologic on October 26, 2013 at 6:36am — No Comments

$USDCAD- near top?

Currently we are at 1.0439 at the end of the third wave. This is a 2 part trade opportunity.  1) We are looking for a bullish continuation to the resistance area @ 1.0469 and 2) the next target the R4 @ 1.0503.  The average daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 47 pips.…


Added by Scott Barkley on October 25, 2013 at 1:04pm — No Comments

Sterling above $1.62 against the US Dollar - time for a fall?

Sterling’s recent strength against the US dollar has been confusing. With the pound currently trading slightly above 1.62 USD, this is making UK exports even more uncompetitive and making it much harder for the UK to sell goods abroad. Goods in the US are generally far more competitively priced, some items at least 30 per cent cheaper and with sterling up more than 10% since July, this does no favours for UK…


Added by Ronnie Chopra on October 25, 2013 at 12:51pm — 1 Comment

FX Set-up: Asmussen Not Worried About EUR- TD: Morning FX Outlook, 25 Octber 2013

"EUR/USD retains a firm undertone around the 1.38  zone.  Weaker than expected IFO data from Germany helped pull the EUR off new, YTD highs in the low 1.38 area but  sanguine comments from ECB board member Asmussen on the exchange rate (“not a specific worry”) have failed to restore a bid to the market.  Asmussen is one view on the ECB but, in this respect, Draghi’s is the most important with the EUR TWI around similar levels now to where he…


Added by Daologic on October 25, 2013 at 11:42am — No Comments

Markets Mixed; Liquidity in Focus-BBH CurrencyView

"(...) The excess liquidity in the euro area has fallen below the EUR200 bln level that is perceived to be consistent with keeping key short-term rates (EONIA) near zero.  The decline in excess liquidity appears to be largely driven by the repayment of LTRO borrowings, though there may be some other technical factors at work as well.  In addition to excess liquidity…


Added by Daologic on October 25, 2013 at 11:34am — No Comments

USD/CAD took out the barrier at 1.0400-BMO FX Strategy Daily

From the spot desk:

"Further Canada weakness was seen yesterday, as USD/CAD took out the barrier at 1.0400 to trade close to 1.0450 late in…


Added by Daologic on October 25, 2013 at 11:00am — No Comments

UK & Europe-TD: Global Daily

"(...)EUR IFO business climate was weaker than expected, falling from 107.7 to 107.4 in October, against the consensus forecast for a small gain to 108.0. The weakness was mostly in…


Added by Daologic on October 25, 2013 at 11:00am — No Comments

ANZ - EUR/USD: Rebounds pushing towards 1.40

ANZ - "EURUSD Daily: Momentum indicators may be at disconcerting levels, but are not rolling over (to provide a negative warning) as gains continue to hold above February’s 1.3710 high. Concern should be pushed aside and the rally could push through an interim retracement of 1.3835 to a series of measured moves in the 1.3950-1.4050 area.

This more positive profile should still be seen in the context of EUR/USD defining the upper bounds of a much broader trading (consolidation) range.…


Added by Francesc Riverola on October 25, 2013 at 10:41am — No Comments

EURUSD: Sees Bullish Momentum.

EURUSD: With more bullishness exposing further upside, EUR looks to extend its strength. Resistance resides at the 1.3900 level. Further out, resistance comes in at  the 1.3950 level followed by the 1.4000 level and possibly higher towards the 1.4050 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Conversely, support stands at the 1.3710 level followed by the 1.3650 level and then the 1.3600 level. A breach will target the 1.3500 level followed by the 1.3456 level…


Added by fxtech on October 25, 2013 at 10:33am — No Comments

eurusd 30m pullback level ?

Added by Mariusz Lin on October 25, 2013 at 9:58am — No Comments

UK Q3 GDP preliminary estimate: +0.8%, as expected-RBSM

"(...)Overall, the acceleration in UK economic growth reinforces the sense that a more sustainable recovery is taking root. 2013 has brought something of a normalisation in the data, in contrast to the previous period between 2011-12 where there were short bursts of growth but expansion was rarely sustained. The Q3 outturn leaves the UK on track for full-year expansion of close to 1½%, still a sub-trend pace but the fastest expansion since 2010 (1.6%) and the first year where all four…


Added by Daologic on October 25, 2013 at 9:55am — No Comments

Rest in Peace Peter Jackson

Sad morning indeed.... I am still in shock with the news.

I was this morning waiting to have a meeting with my oldest daughter's teacher when I saw FXBeat's Gerry Davies post announcing that his friend and crew member Peter Jackson had passed away.

As you may know, Jamie Coleman, Gerry Davies, Peter Jackson and Peter Fell had recently joined to launch FXBeat, a live market coverage feed sparkled with their sharp and funny comments.

Peter was not even able to…


Added by Francesc Riverola on October 25, 2013 at 9:30am — No Comments

Intra-day Elliott Wave Overview: S&P500, AUDUSD and EURUSD

The stocks futures market is sideways for the past two or three trading days which we think it represents a corrective pause with ongoing uptrend. On the S&P Futures hourly chart we track the idea of a triangle that suggest a break up in wave (v) towards 1760/1770. Move may occur already today, or early next week.

S&P Futures 1h…


Added by Gregor Horvat on October 25, 2013 at 9:29am — No Comments

BofAML - AUDUSD Looking beyond the next two months

Bank of America Merrill Lynch - "Last week, we recommended buying AUD/USD as a short-term opportunity with the delay in Fed tapering and fiscal risks likely to be supportive for carry trades (Buy now, but don't get carried away). Our flows suggested that longer term investors were still relatively short AUD, adding to the near-term upward pressure on the currency. We recommended buying a 2m 0.9750 call against selling 2x 0.9900 calls. Despite the recent fall in the AUD - in our view, due to…


Added by Francesc Riverola on October 25, 2013 at 9:03am — No Comments

FX Strategy Weekly - Sorry Is the Hardest Word-DB

"How to say ‘mea culpa’ I'm beginning to feel like Mervyn King when he was Governor of the Bank of England constantly having to write letters to the Chancellor explaining why he missed his inflation target. Yesterday, the euro reached a new high for the year at 1.3793 contrary to my expectation of a weaker euro into year-end. Since July I've been too dismissive of the recovery in the Euroarea and the associated surge of equity inflows and narrowing of cross-current basis, and too excited…


Added by Daologic on October 25, 2013 at 8:28am — No Comments

Early Morning Reid - Macro Strategy-Deutsche Bank

"(...)Markets are off to a cautious start to Friday’s trading though. Every major Asia regional index is trading lower with the exception of the ASX200 (+0.25%) while S&P 500 futures are down 0.2%. Japanese equities are faring poorly (-2.2%) despite a better (ie higher) than expected inflation reading (1.1% YoY vs 0.9% expected). Core CPI measures were flat YoY and -0.2% MoM…


Added by Daologic on October 25, 2013 at 8:00am — No Comments

Daily Brief for EU Session as on 25-10-2013


EUR/USD: Sell Below 1.3825,TP1.3790/70,SL1.3850,BOB1.3860

GBP/USD: Sell Below 1.6230,TP1.6185/1.6160,SL1.6260,BOB1.6273

GOLD: Sell near 1345,TP1337/32,SL1352,BOB1353

CL: Sell Below 97.20,TP96.60/15,SL97.60,BOB97.70

USD/JPY: Buy above 97,TP97.40/75,SL96.70,BOS 96.60

Important News;

German Ifo Business Climate 1pm, GBP Prelim GDP 1.30pm US Core Durable Goods Orders 5.30pm

BOB stand for break out buy and BOS stands…


Added by Usman Ali on October 25, 2013 at 6:21am — 4 Comments

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