May 2013 Blog Posts (497)

NZD vs JPY Kumo Breakout

NZD vs JPY Kumo Breakout

Today with price closing outside of the Kumo this represents bearish sentiment with the ichimoku system. Price has not been on the bearish side of the Kumo since breaking the Kumo July 4th of 2012. Nice long bullish run! That bullish run really started in June of 2012 @ 57.985…

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Added by ChaosTrader63 on May 31, 2013 at 10:49pm — No Comments

USD/CDN simple two legged pullback entry with trend

A nice example of a simple 2 legged pull back entry with trend, and some explanation of the thought process.

to determine trend, simply need 2 or more HHs, after which you look for the first 2 legged reversal.  the 2 legged reversal should not extend beyond the most recent HL, if it does it negates this particular set up and may even indicate a trend reversal.  if you look at the previous reversal from bear to bull you can see the 2 legged pullback would not have been traded, and did…

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Added by talisman on May 31, 2013 at 5:55pm — 28 Comments

HSBC - AUDUSD: Positioning for a Fall

HSBC - "The market’s romance with the AUD has faltered. AUDUSD has fallen nearly 8% since the beginning of April, breaking through parity for the first time in nearly a year. The catalysts of AUD’s demise appear to be the 3 C’sChina, commodities and carry.

However, the 3 C’s have been conspiring against the AUD for a long time now and we argued back in September 2012 that these factors should have resulted in AUDUSD trading much lower.

(...) The…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on May 31, 2013 at 4:20pm — 2 Comments

Societé Generale - Scenario Analysis for the Coming Week(s)

Nice...

Francesc

Societé Generale - "The data calendar gets busy again over the coming week, with NFPs the icing on the cake on Friday. Our economists are looking for a s lightly above-consensus number, at +210k. We’ve also got the BoE (waiting for Carney) and ECB (dovish but no cut) meetings on Thursday. Because the Fed is becoming very data-dependant, the focus will be on US employment. Three scenarios:

1.Strong US data would revive exit fears,…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on May 31, 2013 at 3:37pm — No Comments

$GBPAUD- near top?

Currently we are at 1.5858.  We are looking for a little more movement to the R7 @ 1.5926  then a pullback or reversal. We are bullish and there are targets still above @ 1.5934, 1.5970.    The current average daily trading range (ATR) is 144 pips.…

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Added by Scott Barkley on May 31, 2013 at 12:49pm — No Comments

BofAML - ECB Meeting Next Week: Currency impact likely to be more muted

Bank of America Merrill Lynch - "In our view, the ECB has several options to loosen monetary policy further: interest rates, liquidity operations and/or support to credit, but we doubt that it will employ these measures. Rather, we believe the bank will try to reassure the market that all options remain open and could cut the refi further by 25bp in the summer on the back of weaker activity and to preserve low market rates. The ECB could then follow this with more unconventional policy,…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on May 31, 2013 at 12:25pm — No Comments

EURUSD – Intraday Strategy (31 May 2013)

Recommendations: Long positions above 1.2967 with 1.3030 & 1.3060 as next targets.



Alternative scenario:The downside breakout of 1.2967 will call for a slide to 1.2920/1.2860.



Description: The pair's already found support at 1.2967, as long as this level holds, look for further gains towards 1.3030/1.3060 levels, an hourly close below 1.2967 will reverse risks to the downside and call for a slide to 1.2920/1.2860…

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Added by Haitham653 on May 31, 2013 at 11:00am — 1 Comment

EURUSD - Bullish with risk towards 1.3225/1.3330 - Support at 1.2820 , Resistance at 1.3061

The EURUSD maintained a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.3061 levels, now pressure will be on the key resistance 1.3061.The EURUSD will have to hold above the 1.3061 levels on a daily closing basis to push the market for further upside gains,If seen : the pair will target the 1.3135 levels where a breach will turn focus on the 1.3225 levels, break of 1.3225 will pave the way towards the 1.3330 levels. 

On the downside, support is at 1.2820, a failure to hold above the 1.3061…

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Added by Haitham653 on May 31, 2013 at 8:30am — 10 Comments

AUD :: Time to look into it.. Show Details

Added by Tahir Khan on May 31, 2013 at 7:42am — 1 Comment

Daily forcast for swing trading as on 31-05-2013.

look at simplest report ,which shows today entry and exit levels.

Instrument Trend Recommendation  31-05-2013

 

EUR/USD

Buy above 1.3037,TP1.3070/3110,SL1.3000BOS 1.2995

GBP/USD   

 Buy above1.5225,TP1.5285 ,SL1.5198 ,BOS1.5195

GOLD  

 Sell below 1422,TP1410/03,SL 1425,BOB1430

SILVER  

Buy above 22.75,TP 23.05/30,SL 22.65,BOS 22.60



CRUDE OIL  sell below  93.60,TP93.23/92.50,SL 93.90 BOB 94



USD/JPY

Sell below 101.25,TP…

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Added by Usman Ali on May 31, 2013 at 6:27am — No Comments

GBPJPY - Retains Long Outlook

GBP/JPY has been moving in ascending channel. Currently testing lower trend line and Strong support.

Price has been moving in tight range for last two days. Asian session indicated some bullish momentum , expect bulls to gain strength as move volume move in with opening of European market.



For IntradyDay Traders, Buy at dips



Sardar…

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Added by Sardar Uddin on May 31, 2013 at 5:12am — No Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 31.05.2013

EUR gained above 1.3000 level yesterday as expected however it coudn't break over 1.3050. Currently EUR is trading around the support 1.3030. Maybe after some hesitation around 1.3030 EUR will test 1.3060-75 area. I expect a failiure there or a little above if reached. It's a good idea to SHORT EUR ahead of 1.3100. We have immediate support @ 1.3020 and then @ 1.3000. You may enter LONG at these levels for 1.3065-80 and then to reverse your position. If you take a look at the H4 frame you…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on May 31, 2013 at 4:52am — 2 Comments

JP Morgan - FX technicals: key levels EUR/USD 1.2760 & USD/CAD 1.0450

JP Morgan - "From a technical perspective, the medium term rally phase for the USD has accelerated over the past few weeks in line with the backup in US rates. While the short term setup can allow for some pause, the broad-based strength implies an improved technical backdrop and increased risk that a deeper rally phase is underway. The key development for the improved setup is the push through the 2012 highs for the JPM USD Index (84.44) and the DXY (84.10). Moreover, the May close will…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on May 30, 2013 at 2:27pm — No Comments

Deutsche Bank - Are you really ready for a once-in-a-generation move in the USD?

Deutsche Bank - "We believe the market remains under-positioned for what we expect to be a once-in-a-generation move in the USD over the course of the year, as well as big moves in rates.

First, real yield differentials between the US and the rest of the world have already turned, suggesting the US trade-weighted dollar should be at least 7% higher from current levels.

(...) Second, the market continues to be too complacent on the US rates path, particularly in the short-end. One…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on May 30, 2013 at 1:54pm — 3 Comments

ANZ - Knocking the Nokkie!

ANZ -

"•A broad topping pattern has developed in NOK (basis the Bank of England’s Trade Weighted Index, Figure 2) into 2013

•Technical patterns point towards further NOK weakness which is best expressed via long EUR/NOK positions

•EUR/NOK has been forming a base since mid-2012 and the recent pullback to test the “break” level is seen as confirming this base

•EUR/NOK is now poised for rebounds to the previous congestion area around the minimal retracement target of 7.85,…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on May 30, 2013 at 1:45pm — No Comments

$USDCHF - bounce?

Currently we are at 0.9650 after bouncing on the trend line at 0.9600..  We are looking for a continuation up to the resistance @ 0.9736  and then the R6 Resistance later @ 0.9820. We are bullish.    The current average daily trading range (ATR) is 119 pips.…

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Added by Scott Barkley on May 30, 2013 at 12:51pm — No Comments

EUR/USD May 30 – Gains Continue as Euro Tests 1.30

A slow start to the week seems long behind us, as the euro continues to rally against the dollar.EUR/USD is trading in the high-1.29 range in Thursday’s European session. Will we see a move towards the 1.30 barrier? In economic news, Eurozone Retail PMI looked sharp, hitting an eight-month high. The markets are awaiting the Italian 10-year bond auction. We could see some action from the pair as…

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Added by Yohay Elam on May 30, 2013 at 9:41am — No Comments

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