JPYs had a quiet day for the most part on Thursday but Asian Openn saw some strength in Yen. Currently price has bounced of strong support indicating completion of corrective moves in most JPY pairs. Bulls are losing momentum in JPY pairs but short term look remains to be Bullish. For Intraday Traders Look for Long opportunities with good money management.
Outlook – EURJPY Neutral to Weak …
UBS - "EURUSD Resistance is at 1.3108, a break above this would open the more critical 1.3202 and then 1.3232. Support is at 1.2955 and 1.2920 – a breach here would be a bearish development.
USDJPY As long as support at 97.85 holds, there’s scope for extension of the broader bull trend. Resistance is at the psychological 100.00, a break above this would be positive, opening 101.45.
GBPUSD Having closed above 1.5424, the risk is for further upside in the near-term as the trending…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 26, 2013 at 8:23am — No Comments
ANZ - "The past nine months has seen AUD/USD contained within an effective 1.01-1.06 range. The failure to sustain the early April push above 1.05, highlighted in Figure 1, leaves AUD at risk of making a pronounced test of this range’s support, in the 1.0110-25 area, amidst background bias for a deeper pullback towards 0.9980 (61.8% of the range of the past year). However, by breaking below 1.0110, AUD would also be at risk of a more standard range flip, which suggests a potential fall to…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 26, 2013 at 8:12am — No Comments
USDCAD has turned nicely lower in this week which was expected in corrective wave 2 after recent completed five wave rally in wave 1 at 1.0285. Notice that now we have three sub-waves down from wave 1 peak which is a structure of a contra-trend price action. Current price is also testing an important 50 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracenement level, plus a trend-line connected from March highs. With that in mind, that appears to be ideal zone for a new push higher. A minor impulse back above…Continue
Added by Gregor Horvat on April 26, 2013 at 8:05am — No Comments
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "The yen has strengthened in response to the unchanged monetary policy decision from the BOJ. The announcement, which came at 0535 BST, resulted in USD/JPY falling back below the 99.00 level.
(...) I think if there is anything to take from today’s BOJ policy meeting it is the fact that the BOJ believes it has made all the announcements necessary in order to achieve its more aggressive inflation target. That may illicit the market questioning what next for…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 26, 2013 at 7:49am — No Comments
Societé Generale - "Good morning. It's risk-on and raining in London. The Bundesbank doesn't like OMT (we knew that), Angela Merkel chose to point out that Germany needs higher rates (not so sure about that) and next week's ECB meeting and conference call will be fun. But that's all for next week. Today, the SG risk sentiment indicator is back in ‘risk-seeking' territory - an extremely rare event in 2013 despite the S&Ps gains this year.
(...) Crowded positions have been flushed:…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 26, 2013 at 7:36am — No Comments
Recommendations : SHORT positions below 1.3072 with 1.3000 & 1.2930 as next targets.
Alternative scenario : The upside breakout of 1.3072 will call for a rebound to 1.3115/165.
Description : The pair maintained a bearish momentum yesterday,stability below 1.3072 levels will keep the pair under pressure , a break below 1.3000 will accelerate the bearish move towards 1.2950/1.2900 levels, on the upside , an hourly close above…Continue
EUR has reversed yesterday's upside after US jobless claims release and dropped almost 90 pips, however 1.3000 has stopped further downside and the price bounced to the well known support 1.3030. So we were unable to determine direction yesterday and despite the volatility we ar at the same place where we were yesterday. For today i expect another upside attempt with target 1.3140 and bounce back to 1.3100 or a little below that. A daily close above 1.3090 will open the way to 1.3250 next…Continue
The GBPUSD continued its bullish momentum the past few weeks, after breaking of the 1.5155 levels, now pressure will be on the 1.5508/1.5544 levels, the GBPUSD will have to hold above the 1.5544 levels on a daily closing basis, to push the market for further upside gains, If seen, this scenario will have large bullish implication , and sooner or later the pair will target the 1.5853/1.5995 levels, where rejection is suggested but a breach will turn focus on the 1.6380…Continue
Added by Haitham653 on April 26, 2013 at 4:33am — No Comments
Rabobank - "We have changed our ECB rates view: we are now forecasting a 25bp rate cut next week. This will take the refi rate to a historical low of 0.5%. Our previous call was for the benchmark refi rate to remain at 0.75% until mid-2014 at least. We do not expect the ECB to take the deposit rate below zero as this may have unintended side-effects and thus will remain in reserve for worse case scenarios, a view we explained in one of our previous research notes (“What are the odds of a…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 25, 2013 at 2:38pm — No Comments
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "The USD/JPY rate has moved close to the 100-level on a number of occasions in response to Kuroda's QQE announcement to expand the monetary base and hit a 2% inflation target. However, yen buying for repatriation of cash earnings from overseas subsidiaries, the recent weak economic indicators in the U.S., and yen buying to avoid option triggers before the BoJ board meeting have countered yen weakness recently. Next week market conditions may be more volatile due to…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 25, 2013 at 2:32pm — No Comments
Currently we are at 1.0334 and the long awaited breakout has occurred . We are looking for a small retracement at the R3 @ 1.0365 then a continuation up to the resistance @ 1.0421 and then the R4 Resistance later @ 1.0454. We are bullish. The current average daily trading range (ATR) is 95 pips.…Continue
Goldman Sachs - "Two factors underpin this view. First, the US continues to run a BBoP deficit and our BBoP framework suggests that the nominal trade-weighted USD is likely to depreciate by about 2%-5% per annum on a trend basis – the real USD TWI is around 5% away from its all-time low. Second, the Fed remains among the most dovish central banks, which further supports our view that the USD remains under depreciation pressure. Potentially positive dollar factors, such as shale oil and gas…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 25, 2013 at 12:31pm — No Comments
I have a lot of time these past 2 days so I better post what I wanted now before I take much longer break. Now I would like to talk about health of the trends and anticipation of reversal. Traders mostly look for HH/HL and LH/LL which is good and unbiased technique, but sometimes also overall observation is as important - for at least to keep us from price blowing against us when we are already in. One of the more reliable indicators I found to be overall price skew. Another is "price…Continue
Added by Romano on April 25, 2013 at 12:30pm — No Comments
Westpac - "The outlook for the global economy has received a number of set backs this week. However, commodities and equity markets are showing signs of resilience. Global liquidity could also get another shot in the arm next week, with rising speculation of an ECB rate cut.
US$ outlook: US data momentum has clearly rolled over and so has expectations of QE coming to a premature end. This should see the DXY struggle to break through the 83.00 level in the near term.…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 25, 2013 at 11:07am — No Comments
the question for last few weeks for U.K was ''U.K. will get into triple recession or not'' situation after todays gdp data was little changebut its not mean U.K.doing well,we have to wait for another good data to confirm it for example next week we'll see PMI's and many other in next few weeks,GDP rose from 0.2% to 0.6% YOY.it was great data for them.sterling broken important ressistance 38.2% retracement 1.5412/22 level and its heading to 50% retracement 1.5600/04 level. in my opinion is…Continue
Added by gregorian on April 25, 2013 at 11:05am — No Comments
UBS - "EURCHF BULLISH There is scope for more upside and the next major resistance is at 1.2398. Support is at 1.2264.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Support is at 0.8497, a break below which would expose 0.8463 ahead of 0.8410. Resistance is at 0.8590 ahead of 0.8648.
EURJPY BULLISH As long as support at 127.82 holds, there is potential for the cross to extend its broader strength. Near-term resistance is at 130.70, a break above this would open 132.05.
EURUSD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.3108, a…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 25, 2013 at 10:46am — No Comments
There is always dilemma in trader head as to whether candlesticks are better or worse than line chart. If they ever help at all or made things even more deceiving. In past months I used both with various trading styles I use and I would say both are very useful for its purpose.
There are some very successful traders here that use lines(I shouldnt need to name them, everybody know). From my own experience lines absolutely beat anything else when it comes to drawing…Continue
In our video yesterday for members we were talking about two possibilities on EURUSD; “Is move from 1.3200 only corrective pattern and we will go higher in the next few days”, or »Do we have a one-two one two very aggressive bearish scenario?”.
For now, I like the one-two one-two scenario if we consider that rise from 1.2954 is in three waves at the moment with nice reversal from 61.8%. An impulsive intra-day decline to 1.2975 would suggest lower prices. In such case we could be…
Added by Gregor Horvat on April 25, 2013 at 8:30am — No Comments
Yesterday we had a nice discussion so thank all of you and Peter jcp in particular!
EURUSD may have found its min level at support pivot 1.2955 and already went 100+ pips higher from that point. Above 1.3015 I expect more bullish move to come.
Though my trading is based on short-term positions, I believe EURUSD…Continue