Greetings traders, today I had very briefly time to trade intraday(I really have busy weeks now since I return as I also attend for drive license and other things), normally I dont post my trades but today was such a good example for both good things and mistakes I did that I believe it will be very beneficial to those that are still in developing/learning phase. Most people post their trades that have successful results, but dont comment on what they are actually thinking at any moment,…Continue
TD Securities - "We highlighted signs of instability and weakness in the underlying bull trend in USD/JPY in the past couple of weeks (the big, bearish divergence on the daily chart between the spot market and the smoothed slow stochastic oscillator, for example). This week, price action is delivering some concrete signals of an important price reversal via a bearish “engulfing line” on the weekly chart. This is a classic—and usually reliable—candle reversal. The broader move up has been so…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 29, 2013 at 5:20pm — No Comments
UBS - "This week the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will hold their next policy meetings. The recent data flow has been weaker in both America and the Eurozone. But stock markets have remained resilient. The Federal Open Market Committee looks set to continue with its third round of quantitative easing. The ECB's Governing Council is also likely to cut its benchmark refinance rate by 25bps to 0.50% according to UBS Economics.
In short, financial markets are betting that…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 29, 2013 at 5:07pm — No Comments
After a break of two weeks due my own incompetency to perform multitasks - please accept my apologies - we are back with our casual contest "Forex Oracle of the Week", this case in EURUSD again.…Continue
JP Morgan - "The late-week recoveries for both AUD/USD and NZD/USD maintain the overall range bias for both pairs. In turn, the short term upside risks have increased but still within the context of the medium term consolidations. For AUD/USD, this follows the test and hold of key short term support in the 1.0225/00 zone which includes the 76.4% retracement of the rally from the March low. Given the short term oversold framework, we are closely monitoring for signs that a deeper retracement…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 29, 2013 at 1:33pm — No Comments
Currently we are at 1.0343 and the long awaited breakout has occurred . We are looking for a small retracement at the R3 @ 1.0366 then a continuation up to the resistance @ 1.0460. The pullback may show this to only be a correction for a continued down move so watch that. The current average daily trading range (ATR) is 92 pips.…Continue
Added by Scott Barkley on April 29, 2013 at 1:19pm — No Comments
TD Securities - "Recent Trade Recommendations:
NEW TRADE – N/A
Sell AUD/JPY at 101.65 (stop entry) Target of 95; Stop of 103.25
AUD/JPY has, on average, dropped the most of the commodity/JPY crosses through the early May period in the past three years as risk aversion has spiked. We think circumstances suggest a “four-peat” is possible and we want to sell into a clear drop below 102.
ONGOING TRADE – April 11
Long USD/CAD from 1.0095…
Societé Generale - "Trading is dominated by retail and asset managers which continue to seek yield at ever lower investment grades. The Italian 10y BTP is now 10bp lower today after an auction. Core bond markets are taking a subdued hit as the periphery outperforms. The second layer of trading is composed of hedge funds and banks with far tighter stop losses. The third layer of trading is high frequency trading which amplifies trends or plays mean reversion.
The market is positioned…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 29, 2013 at 11:38am — No Comments
Danske Bank - "USD/CAD – Scope for a powerful longer-term recovery
• Strategy Summary – Buy into dips for gains to 1.0854, ahead of 1.1236 and then 1.1668.
Suggest placing a stop under .9815
Cash Gold – The 1½ year top signals further medium-term losses
• Strategy Summary – Look to sell upon further corrective strength towards the 1521.95/1527.00 area for a medium-term decline towards 1156.90/1145.75. Place a stop above 1616.35."
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 29, 2013 at 11:17am — No Comments
Goldman Sachs - "The ECB Meeting takes place next Thursday, May 2. We now expect a 25bp cut in the main refinancing rate, but no change to the deposit rate. We view such a rate cut as mainly ‘cosmetic’, with few implications for the real economy.
Final Manufacturing PMIs for April are released on Thursday (with the UK on Wednesday). The Euro area Flash Manufacturing PMI declined from 46.8 to 46.5 in April.
Spanish GDP for Q1 is published on Tuesday. We forecast a 0.5%qoq fall in Q1,…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 29, 2013 at 11:06am — No Comments
Brown Brothers Harriman - "Looking forward, the bad news is that the technical outlook has been not clarified by the price action in recent days The good news is that there are a number of key fundamental developments in the coming days that will help strengthen or crystallize the underlying trend. These events include the euro area PMIs , the US employment data and the ECB and FOMC meetings.
Our near-term bias is for a stronger euro, but the price action itself has been poor.…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 29, 2013 at 10:25am — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "Many currencies gave reasons to sell in the last week. Few gave reasons to buy, thus we were left with many currencies consolidating recent trends and slipping into ranges. In searching for themes we have tended to see higher yielding currencies perform well and those held has safe havens under-performing.
However, this pattern does not completely explain performance - FX reserves growth may also be underpinning some of those safe haven alternative reserve…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 29, 2013 at 10:08am — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY NEUTRAL The latest setback does not change the broader bullish picture as long as strong support at 95.80 holds. Resistance is at the psychological 100.00.
GBPUSD BULLISH The pair posts new recovery high and is approaching resistance at 1.5550. The next major resistance is at 1.5606, a break above this would open 1.5689. Support is at 1.5419 ahead of 1.5361.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Support is at 0.9387, a move below would expose 0.9319. Near-term resistance is at 0.9457 ahead of…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 29, 2013 at 9:36am — No Comments
HSBC - "The lack of a global unifying theme for FX markets is forcing exchange rates into ranges, and away from neat sustainable trends. Markets love a unifying theme on which to build a strategy. Following the break down of the carry model, the risk on-risk off dynamic fulfilled this role, but its grip on the FX market has been on the retreat for a number of months now.
The scramble for a fresh explanation for global market moves is on, but they all fall short because of contradictory…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 29, 2013 at 9:27am — No Comments
Recommendations: LONG positions above 124.97 with 131.10 & 134.50 as next targets.
Alternative scenario: The downside breakout of 124.97 will call for a slide to 118.70/114.50.
Description: The pair trades above its support at 124.97, above this level look for further upside gains towards 131.10 levels,a weekly close above this level will extend the bullish move towards 134.50 levels and possible…
Added by Haitham653 on April 29, 2013 at 9:12am — No Comments
Recommendations: LONG positions above 1.3060 with 1.3130 & 1.3160 as next targets.
Alternative scenario: The downside breakout of 1.3060 will call for a slide to 1.3010/1.2950.
Description: The pair trades above its resistance at 1.3060, above this level look for further upside gains towards 1.3120/1.3165 levels, an hourly close below 1.3060 will reverse risks to the downside and open the way…
EUR performed a low volatility day on Friday and started today with move to the upside, the price is currently stopped at the resistance 1.3050, support is 1.3030 below which we risk another test of 1.2970. If broken 1.2970 then we may go to 1.2905 and below, so watch for confirmation candle on H4 close. On H4 there is a negative Ichimoku beginning to form, so it's very likely to have a false break higher today if any at all, and then the price will trun south. Some weak data from Spain and…Continue